Author: admin

March 6, 2023

* currencies & metals rally on Friday last week

* What’s this about ERA? 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, at first, last weekend was going great for our sports teams… The Billikens won Friday night, Mizzou won Saturday, the Cardinals won on Saturday, our brand spanking new soccer team STL City SC won their historic home opener on Saturday, and then… The Blues lost on Saturday night.  But how about that expansion team STL City SC?  They are 2-0 for an expansion team that’s almost non heard of previously! The city the stadium, were rockin’ and rollin’ all day and night long… I watched it on TV, as I’m not in St. Louis right now… and I’m sad I missed the historic night in the city I grew up in… R.E.M. greets me this morning with their song: The One I Love

Well, I started a string of short-n-sweet Pfennigs last Wednesday, and I’m afraid that today will make 3-in-a-row… But what’s a country boy to do, when he’s beaten the debt horse, the inflation horse, and the bad economy horse enough all ready? There’s always a Fed Head dolt to beat on, but then even that gets old, and stale… So, here goes nothing…

The dollar ended last week looking like it was getting very tired… You know, like Big Lee Smith, a former Cardinals’ relief pitcher, used to come into the game… “I’m so tired”… he would slog onto the field, looking as if he was not supposed to be buying any green bananas, and then he would wind up and pitch a fastball that, for that time, was pretty darn fast!  The BBDXY lost 1 index point on Friday, in some very range based trading… The only currency of note was the Mexican peso… more on the peso later…  

Gold ended the week on Friday, up $20.60, and Silver was up 36-cents… So, it was a good day for the metals, with Gold ending the week at $1,857.50, and Silver at $21.36..  There were reports of yet more short covering in both metals… Now wouldn’t it be nice (Beach Boys) if all the short positions got covered? Well, yes, we can all dream of seashells and balloons, but they don’t pay the bills… C’mon Chuck, get with the program here! Wake up!

The price of Oil, which had bumped higher to the $79 handle earlier last week, saw some selling  on Friday, and ended the week trading with a $78 handle. Bonds, which had appeared to turn the corner and were heading in the right direction, last week, ended the week with buying, and yield on the 10-year Treasury, fell to 3.94%… Recall that it had finally, moved past 4.0% last week.. So, there had to be some major buying to reverse this move higher in the yield… Can you say, bond manipulation? I knew you could!

You see, the powers that be, can’t have bonds getting out of hand, with their rising yields, because that would take away from the stock jockeys… Uh-Oh! What are we going to do now? Well, if you ask me I would only be buying short term Treasuries, and live for another day… But then that’s just me, C’mon Chuck, they already know that! Sorry…

In the overnight markets last night, the dollar fought back, and regained the 1 index point it had lost Friday, and trades this morning at 1,248…  And like I said above, the only currency that looks like it came out of the fight with the dollar without a black eye, is the Mexican peso…  Well, I’ve beaten this peso “risk premium being back” to death too, so… let’s kept moving along…

Gold is down $8 in the early trading today.. So the start of the week isn’t a good one for Gold, unless things turn around quickly today. Silver is also giving back some gains in the early trading with it being down 26-cents…  Blood, Sweat & Tears, used to sing about how “what goes up, must come down”, and while it’s a very true statement, it just doesn’t seem to be in effect for the dollar, not as long as the PPT has their treasure chest of Exchange Stabilization Funds to protect the dollar each and every time it begins to fall off a cliff…  I’m just saying..

The price of Oil has slipped further down in the $78 handle this morning, and the 10-year’s yield continued to drop.. Stranger things have happened in Bonds, folks… But the bond yield performance is stranger than fiction to me…

So… I was perusing the USA Today yesterday before heading the ballpark, and cam across something that I was unaware of… Did you know that the ERA Amendment wasn’t a law?  Here’s the skinny from USA Today: “What is the ERA? The Equal Rights Amendment states: “Equality of rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any state on account of sex.”

• This isn’t already law? Nope. Congress first approved a resolution formally proposing the amendment in 1972, triggering the requirement that 38 states ratify it before enshrinement to the U.S. Constitution. Lawmakers set a seven-year deadline for the ratification process, then extended it by another three years.
• Only 35 states adopted the amendment by the extended 10-year deadline. But in 2020, Virginia became the 38th state to ratify the amendment, meeting the threshold required but doing so nearly four decades after the deadline lapsed.’

Chuck again…  How’d that happen? All this time everyone worked under the idea that it was a law, and now we find out it really isn’t?  Aye, Aye, Aye…

Last week, the eurozone reported their January Inflation number, and while it was less (8.5% VS 8.6%), and the spin doctors tried to make it sound like inflation was under control, it wasn’t… Inflation in the Eurozone is sticky, and in Germany inflation actually was higher… But there were other countries in the Union  that had reported drops in inflation…  This report will not change the direction of interest rates in the Eurozone… The European Central Bank (ECB) will mostly like hike rates 50 Basis Points again at their next meeting, and that should continue to support the euro, but then, it really shouldn’t, but it will, because that’s the way traders think about currencies these days…  These days, I sit on cornerstones, and count the time in quarter tones… (Jackson Browne)

The thing that keeps dragging the euro downward, beyond dollar strength, is the Club Med countries, of Italy, Spain, Greece, all have debt up to their eyeballs and little to no economic growth… Germany keeps pulling the rest of the Union out of the gutter, but, how much longer will they be able to do that? That’s the $64 dollar question… And if you know the answer to that, you win the Big Floppy Teddy Bear!

Speaking of sticky inflation… In the U.K. inflation continues to rise… despite the Bank of England’s(BOE) rate hikes… memo to BOE…  you’ve got to get ahead of inflation to get control of it… you’re just like the U.S. Fed Heads, and ECB… you’re coming to a gun fight with inflation with a pea shooter…

The Russian ruble continues to show weakness, and has given back over 5 points in price since we turned the calendar to 2023… I still say that the ruble is an oil play, nothing more, nothing less, and if you believe that Oil is undervalued right now, then you see why the ruble has been having trouble getting a bid each day…

The U.S. Data Cupboard, last week, had the productivity for the 4^th QTR and it was awful… The report showed a gain of just 1.7% VS a gain of 3.0% the previous quarter… And then the icing on the cake was the Unit Labor Costs, and they soared in the 4^th QTR by 3.2% VS just a gain of 1.1% in the previous quarter… So, the skinny here is that employees are not working as hard, but getting paid more for doing less… And isn’t that the way we, as humans, do things these days?  Actually, most youngsters want to get paid for doing nothing! 

These two reports are a very telling picture of the what’s going on in the U.S. folks…  I’m just saying..

The Data Cupboard today, just has Factory Orders for Jan, and they will most likely be negative again, following February’s -1.8% print…

To recap… The dollar gets sold one day, it gets bought the next day…  Friday’s price action looked to Chuck like the dollar was getting to be a very tired trade… and then in the overnight markets, that’s all wiped out, and we start the week on the wrong foot… UGH!  Gold has given back ½ of its Friday’s gains in the early markets today. Did you know that ERA isn’t a law?  Well, you’ll have to go back and read that part of the Pfennig this morning, for Chuck has the skinny on all of it!  Inflation is sticky… and the ECB, BOE and Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel are all finding out about that!

For What It’s Worth… A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the troubles of Credit Suisse… And now this past weekend ZeroHedge.com had some info on the problems with Credit Suisse and that’s what this article is about, and it can be found here:  Credit Suisse Crashes To All Time Low After Boosting Deposit Rates To Reverse Bank Run | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Fast forward another two weeks to today, as CS stock craters 7% to a fresh all-time low, after reports from Reuters and Bloomberg that in hopes of reversing the seemingly endless bank run – and who can blame depositors from pulling their money from a company whose stock is less than $3 from zero – Credit Suisse is now offering aggressively higher deposit rates to attract new funds from wealthy clients in Asia.

Citing sources, Reuters notes that the Swiss bank is offering a 6.5% annual rate on new three-month deposits of $5 million or above – and a rate as high as 7% for one-year deposits – far above matched maturity Bills, and suggesting that to attract a client, the bank is forced to eat a loss. The hope, of course, is that after it attracts enough new clients, the bank will then be able to quietly lower the rates and make the new accounts profitable, however as the various DeFi blow ups of 2022 showed, it never quite works out that way.

“The banking sector has been responding to global rate hikes with higher rates and Credit Suisse is fully focused on providing our clients with differentiated advice and competitive solutions,” a Credit Suisse spokesperson said.

Credit Suisse’s generous offers are not only well above risk-free rates, but also about 100 to 200 basis points higher than those of major rivals in the region such as JPMorgan, UBS and Citi Group.

Hilariously, the new deposit rates are higher than Credit Suisse’s lending rates in Asia, a Reuters source said, adding that “it raises concerns about how the business can sustain such a funding gap.” Spoiler alert: it can’t, and as explained above, the bank is willing to eat a short-term loss in hopes of attracting enough sticky money before it flees again once the teaser rates are cut. Sure enough, another source said the offers are valid until the end of this quarter and only apply to new cash deposits, not to existing portfolios.

Asked about the lender’s pricing to win back money during Credit Suisse’s earnings call last month, CEO Ullrich Koerner said the bank is trying to be “competitive” like many rivals: “But we are not buying assets, just to be clear, because that would not be very smart going forward,” he said, which is ironic because buying assets – and at a very high price – is precisely what he is doing… and it’s not working: the bank’s assets managed for wealthy clients, excluding the Swiss bank, tumbled to 540.5 billion Swiss francs ($574 billion) at the end of December, from 742.6 billion francs a year ago, contributing to a second consecutive annual loss, according to Bloomberg.”

Chuck again… so, why is this important to us here in the U.S., I hear you asking? Well, the thigh bone is connected to the knee bone, and the knee bone is connected to the shin bone, etc.  All of these major banks have deals with each other, and when one is affected, they all get affected… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 3/6/2023: American Style: A$ .6722, kiwi .6180, C$ .7344, euro 1.0631, sterling 1.2006, Swiss $1.0692, European Style: rand 18.2041, krone 10.4593, SEK 10.4873, forint 355.36, zloty 4.4287, koruna 22.1516, RUB 75.34, yen 136.04, sing 1.3462, HKD 7.8495, INR 81.92, China 6.9338, peso 17.96, BRL 5.1961, BBDXY 1,248.69, Dollar Index 105.66, Oil $78.44, 10-year 3.91%, Silver $21.10, Platinum $965.00, Palladium $1,427.00, Copper $4.03, and Gold… $1,849.47

That’s it for today…  Well, the college basketball conference championships start this week, this is when basketball begins to get really interesting! Cardinals play the Cheaters, I mean the Astros today… The weather for the games has been terrific, and today should be no different!  Things have been really nice down here this winter… And that’s the reason I come here for the winter! Ok… Chuck’s annual spring vacation starts in 12 days… So, mark your calendars accordingly! HA!  You never know, I might chime in on something that’s crazy or completely out of line, and then again, I might not… Mama’s Pride (a St. Louis band) take us to the finish line today with their song: Blue Mist…   I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please, please, please, with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

March 2, 2023

* currencies & metals rally on Wednesday… 

* China’s economy rolls out strong… 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, March came in like lamb… I sure hope that doesn’t play out like the old saying, for I will be returning home on April Fool’s Day! Another absolutely beautiful day here yesterday, and more are in store in the coming days! Baseball game today… After a day off, my beloved Cardinals get back on the field today at Roger Dean Stadium, and we will be there! My Mizzou Tigers pulled out a win on the road last night at LSU… It was a nail biter, but… the outcome was good… This one will be yet another short-n-sweet letter this morning… Boy aren’t you happy about that! HA!  Jimmy Buffett greets me this morning with his song: Come Monday…

When I left you yesterday, the dollar had been getting sold in the overnight markets, with Gold & Silver on the rally tracks.. In the U.S. session yesterday, the dollar stopped getting sold, but still ended down on the day, with the BBDXY losing 5 index points…  The biggest mover yesterday was the 10-year Treasury… The yield on the 10-year is now above 4%!  About time, too!  The price of Oil also jumped higher and ended the day with a $78 handle… So, yesterday, was good day for the non-dollar/ anti-dollar investments…

I read where the POTUS wants to spend $1.6 Billion to tackle fraud tied to U.S. pandemic relief programs and help victims of identity theft, the White House said. Wait! What? Ok, let me see if I’ve got this straight… Our Gov’t admits that there were problems with the previous money printing scheme, and now want to print more to correct those problems?  Have I died and gone to an economic hell? We as a country didn’t have the money to spend in the first place, and now we want to go into further debt to smooth out bribes, I mean, payments?    Serenity now!

In the overnight markets last night, the dollar fought back a bit, with the BBDXY up 3 index points to start today… The currencies all look like they did yesterday, pretty weary, and tired of fighting for ground VS the dollar… Gold is down 1 buck in the early trading this morning, and Silver has given back 15-cents, falling back below $21 again… UGH!   Bonds are hanging out to dry this morning, and the price of Oil looks like all the fears of a slowdown are fading… It’s difficult to tell at this point if that’s the case, but it sure looks like it could be..

Well… I told you when China reopened their economy a few months ago, that they would find it difficult to get up and running again… But that doesn’t appear to be the case, as even Chinese officials are surprised by the strength of the Chinese economy already… So, what does this mean for the renminbi and the rest of Asia? Well, I’m not sure, but I would think that the Chinese economy can only grow as much as the demand for their goods grow… And with the Eurozone fighting inflation, the U.S. doing the same, it doesn’t look like the growth in those economies will be strong enough… I’m just saying…

Speaking of inflation in the Eurozone.. Their latest report showed that inflation has increased, instead of falling like they expected to see it do… That’s the thing with inflation folks… Just like we’ve found here in the U.S., it’s very sticky… And seems to pop up here, there, and around the corner, just when you think you’ve got it corralled…

The Mexican peso, continues to get bought, as the “risk premium” has returned to the peso, after being absent for many years!  The peso has a history of disappointment, with moving decimals, the Gov’t taking over businesses, etc.  So, all I’ll say about the peso, is be careful here… But the interest rate certainly is appealing, eh?  Yes, sort of like the song that went through the air that the Sea Hag would send out to entice Popeye to come to her…   Oh, my goodness, did I just give away how old I am? HA!

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the latest ISM (manufacturing index)  and while it improved a bit, from 47.7 to 48, it was still below the 50 line in the sand… And that’s not a good thing for the economy, folks, so when you hear someone that should know better than to say things like this, say, that everything is good, you don’t need to correct them, but just ask them “so, how is manufacturing in the country going?”  That should bring them back to earth…

Today’s Data Cupboard has the usual fare for a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which have been inching higher… And with all the announced layoffs that have been made, I can see why… We’ll also see 4^th QTR revisions for Productivity and Unit Labor Costs…  I suspect that both will be revised downward… but we’ll see in few minutes…

To recap… The dollar’s selling in the overnight markets the previous night, didn’t see any follow through, yesterday, but the dollar did end up down for the day… Gold gained $10 yesterday, and is flat this morning, the big mover yesterday was the yield of the 10-year Treasury, which is now above 4%, which Chuck says is about time!  And the price of Oil jumped by $2 in the last 24 hours.  Chuck is not happy about a new deficit spending request by the POTUS… And Chuck also reviews the Chinese recovery…  All that in a sweet little bundle for you all today!

For What It’s Worth…  This article is about how bankruptcies are piling up here in the U.S. with record amount of the filings in the last two months, and it can be found here: US Bankruptcy Filings Surge At Fastest Pace Since 2009 | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “For the past year, both the Biden White House and the Fed have been desperate to usher in a (mild) recession in the U.S. to break the back of runaway inflation and the wage-price spiral with little success. But judging by the surge in bankruptcy filings, they are about to get their wish.

One month ago, when looking at the recent pace of large bankruptcy filings (those with more than $50MM in liabilities), we noted a troubling trend: in the first month of the year, the number of U.S. bankruptcies topped 20, the highest in any other January dating back to 2010. Back then, 25 filings were seen as the economy was still reeling from the aftermath of the GFC.

The spike in defaults was not a fluke, and according to Bloomberg data, one month later – as of the end of February – no less than 39 large companies had filed for bankruptcy in the U.S. so far this year, as February’s pace matches that of January; the YTD total represents the fastest pace of companies filing for bankruptcy since the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009. By comparison, U.S. bankruptcy courts had seen 63 large filings at this point in 2009.

Last week’s seven large filings — those tied to at least $50 million of liabilities — include the liquidation of generic drug maker Akorn and the Chapter 11 filing of Covid-19 test maker Lucira Health.

This year, some of the most notable bankruptcy filings have been festive retailer Party City Holdco Inc, mattress maker Serta Simmons Bedding LLC, and cryptocurrency lender Genesis Global Holdco.

The pile of dollar-denominated corporate bonds and loans in the Americas trading at distressed levels rose to $237.2 billion in the week ended Friday, about a 1.63% increase from $233.4 billion a week earlier, according to BBG data.”

Chuck again… That’s some scary data folks… And other arrow in your quiver to pull out when somebody tells you that everything is hunky dory! 

Market Prices 3/2/2023: American Style: A$ .6739, kiwi .6231, C$ .7349, euro 1.0623, sterling 1.1982, Swiss $1.0639, European Style: rand 18.1739, krone 10.4344, SEK 10.4879, forint 352.89, zloty 4.4082, koruna 22.0965, RUB 75.58, yen 136.80, sing 1.3478, HKD 7.8497, INR 82.59, China 6.9054, peso 18.10, BRL 5.1850, BBDXY 1,251.40, Dollar Index 104.75, Oil $78.14, 10-year 4.01%, Silver $20.82, Platinum $961.00, Palladium $1,434.00, Copper $4.01, and Gold… $1,835.78

That’s it for today and this week…  I can’t wait to get back to the ballpark today… I love Roger Dean Stadium, I love my seat, my view, the field looks fabulous, so, it’s not difficult to see why I enjoy going to the ballpark! And today, I’ll have my good friend, Rick and Duane with me! YAHOO! There have been more of my friends here in years past, but in the beginning, it was just the us three, and since we all get along so well together, it works out!   The Billikens play tomorrow night at home, their last regular season game before the A10 Tournament. The college basketball conferences will begin their end of the season Tournaments that decide who goes to the NCAA Tournament, aka The Big Dance…  I think my beloved Mizzou Tigers will make the tournament without winning the SEC, but I think the Billikens will need to win the A10 Tournament to get into the Big Dance…  Good luck guys!   Hall & Oates take us to the finish line today with their song: I Can’t Go For That… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and I’ll talk to you again next Monday… Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

March 1, 2023

* Currencies & metals rally in the overnight markets!

* No Tik-Tok for you! (soup nazi voice! ) 

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! And Welcome to March!  Another Chamber of Commerce Day here yesterday greeted my friends, Duane and Rick to S. Florida!  The sun rising out of the ocean this morning is simply beautiful.. It was a bad night for St. Louis sports… The StL University Billikens lost a game on the road, and it was an important game for them… UGH!  And our Blues continued to lose games, and have lost every game since they traded their Captain… Hmmm…. I’m thinking that this will be short-n-sweet this morning, as I’ve had little luck finding things to talk about that I haven’t already hammered home multiple times! Thin Lizzy greets me this morning with their song: The Boys Are Back In Town.. (kind of appropriate song title for my buddies)

Well, there were reports yesterday of a huge amount of short positions in Gold & Silver getting closed out for month-end accounting, and the result from that short covering saw Gold gain $9.60 on the day and Silver gain 25-cents.. Gold ended the day at $1,827.80, and Silver at $20.99.  There wasn’t much happening in the currencies yesterday, with the BBDXY gaining only 1 index point.  I see this lack of follow-up by the dollar, very interesting…  Usually, when something like this goes on, it’s time for a big move the other day… Like I’ve explained before, like a star that’s burning out, it shines the brightest right before the burn out…

In The overnight markets last night, we may well have seen the burn out begin… The BBDXY has lost 7 index points overnight, the euro is pushing higher once again, and the buying of kiwi has started up again… The best performing currency so far this year has been… are you ready for this?  I bet in a million years you couldn’t guess this one… The Hungarian forint…  Go figure! One of the, what I call, The Euro Wannabes, have all gotten a little stronger… What? You don’t recall the euro Wannabes?  Ahh grasshopper, the three amigos here are the Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, and the Czech koruna…

Gold is following up yesterday’s gains with another gain in the early markets today, of $9… And Silver has climbed back above the $21 handle this morning with an 8-cent gain in the early trading. The price of Oil is steady with a $76 handle, and Bonds are so-so… stuck in a range, with no major conviction to move one way or the other by the bond boys…

Pam and Russ Martens from www.wallstreetonparade.com sent out a very interesting article yesterday, reporting that… well, let me allow you to listen from them, for they wrote it: “According to Goldman’s annual report, it is being investigated for pretty much everything it does to make money: derivatives, currencies, mortgages, financial advisory, securities lending, dark pools, investment management, commodities, U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds, credit cards, hiring and compensation practices, research practices, compliance with the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, transactions involving government-related financings – and on and on.

Things are so bad that it concedes in this annual report that it may have under-reserved for its legal costs by $2.3 billion.”

Chuck again, so… it seems that Lola has gotten a major snag in her stockings!  The regulators will not be able to shut down Lola, or even cause her to stumble… They’ll get the memo soon that says, “Leave Lola alone”… I’m just saying…

The Case/ Shiller Home Price Index showed a house price drop in January, which marked 6 straight months of home price drops…  And the headline national home price index is at it lowest since March 2022… the home price chart looks like half of a M….  Up and down with the downward slope not looking like it’s going to stop any time soon…   I told you all that this would be the result of the Fed Heads’ rate hikes, and now it’s showing up…

In a case of “it’s about time!” The White House is giving government agencies 30 days to remove Chinese-owned TikTok from federal devices over security concerns surrounding the video-sharing app. Congress approved the ban in December.

The news comes amid concerns TikTok could be used by Beijing to collect individual private data… But the real reason that the Gov’t won’t admit to is that they want to remove this app because the employees are using it all day instead of working!  I know when I ran a trading desk, there were temptations to peruse the internet all day, but we were too busy to do that!  So, keep them busy, keep their noses down and get to work, and quit watching videos on Tik-Tok!

I was doing some reading yesterday, and came across an article that had the writer talking about a Bullish Bank of Japan… (BOJ)… I saw that comment and about fell out of my chair!  You’ve got to be kidding me, right? Well, the writer was steadfast in his idea that the BOJ will be entertaining the thoughts of rate hikes soon…  That idea made its way to the currency desks, and the yen got bought for the first time in a month of Sundays! Well, I’m from Missouri, the BOJ is going to have to “show me”…  until they do, I’ll keep saying that Japan is a basket case, and the yen is not worthy…

I’m sure the brief up-tick of the yen scared some of the Carry Trade participants, but In my opinion, they have nothing to be concerned about.. Carry On, my wayward son! (Kansas!)

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Feb reading of the ISM (manufacturing index), which has fallen below the 50 line that marks the difference between contraction and expansion… The last reading in January had the ISM at 47… Now, if things worked out the way they are supposed to, all the regional readings for manufacturing have come in negative, and that should be the harbinger for a weaker ISM national report…   Remember something that I taught you all quite a few years ago, and that is if the ISM falls below 45 for two months, the economy is in a deep recession…  So, keep that in mind..

We also have 3 Fed Heads out speaking today… Don’t rush out and try to hear what they have to say, for it’s all sex, lies, and inuendo! Just kidding… But sometimes I truly think that to be the case!

For What It’s Worth…  I told you last week how so many people were delinquent in their sub prime car loans… Well, this week it came to a head, and the subprime lending company folded tent… That’s what this article is about and it can be found here; Subprime Auto Lender And Used Car Retailer Collapses As Distress Cycle Finally Arrives | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “One month ago, when discussing the “perfect storm” hitting the US auto market, we showed that according to Fitch “More Americans Can’t Afford Their Car Payments Than During The Peak Of Financial Crisis”…

… which was to be expected: after all the latest consumer credit report from the Fed revealed an exponential spike in the amount of new car loans, which increased by more than $2,000 in one quarter, from just over $38,000 (a record), to $40,155 (a new record).

And yet something just didn’t click: if so many subprime Americans were saddled with record amounts of auto loans – on average more than $40K – where were the defaults? After all, the average loan rate for new car loans just hit a 13 year high and will soon rise to the highest level this centiry.

Well, after a lengthy period in which nothing seemed to happen, suddenly the dominoes are starting to fall, and as Bloomberg reports, used car retailer and subprime auto loan lender, American Car Center, told employees the business was closing its doors, just one day after the company had hoped to pull off a funding Hail Mary by selling a $222 million bond (it failed).

According to Bloomberg, the used car retailer, which targets consumers regardless of their credit history (and thus targets almost entirely subprime borrowers who can’t get a loan elsewhere), said in an email to employees on Friday the firm was ceasing all operations, closing its headquarters in Memphis, Tennessee, and that all employees would be terminated by the end of the business day, the people said. It employed about 288 people at its headquarters.

The closure email came a day after the company sent another message to staff saying management and advisors had been working with lenders to improve liquidity and continue operations. American Car Center, which has more than 40 dealerships across 10 states, is owned by York Capital’s private equity group.

The long overdue collapse – the first of many – comes as more Americans are starting to fall behind on their car payments, and the distress cycle is rapidly accelerating.

Think of it as the infamous New Century domino that signaled the collapse of subprime housing… only for cars.”

Chuck again… ok cars don’t have the size loans of houses (in most cases that is) so this won’t be as big of a catastrophe as the housing bubble pop in 2007… But… it’s still a major part of the economy… I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 3/1/2023: American Style: A$ .6767, kiwi .6263, C$ .7350, euro 1.0675, sterling 1.2036, Swiss $1.0675, European Style: rand 18.1379, krone 10.3411, SEK 10.3993, forint 351.60, zloty 4.4017, koruna 21.9574, RUB 75.31, yen 135.40, sing 1.3406, HKD 7.8499, INR 82.50, China 6.8700, peso 18.27, BRL 5.2364, BBDXY 1,247.67,  Dollar Index 104.31, Oil $76.26, 10-year 3.91%, Silver $21.07, Platinum $961.00, Palladium $1,433.00, Copper $4.04, and Gold… $1,836.90

That’s it for today…See? Short-n-sweet like I promised! Well, maybe not as short, as I thought it would be, but it certainly is SWEET!  Sort of like how I used to tell people when I would meet them, I say I was number 10 on the roster, but number 1 in the hearts of the fans!  HA!   No game for my beloved Cardinals at Roger Dean today, so what will we do today? Probably just loll around, listen to the game on the radio, and before we know it, it will be dinner time!  We could go to Blowing Rocks, or someplace else, but I doubt we will… Ok… keeping this short is getting difficult… so… Alvin Lee and 10 Years After, take us to the finish line today with their song: I’d Love To Change The World…  Alvin Lee was a guitar god, and we lost him way to early… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

February 28, 2023

* the dollar buying takes a breather… 

* Ron Paul adds to the Pfennig today… 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! The last day of February! Today would have been my closest sister’s 70^th birthday… We lost my Barbie doll, to ALS in 2017…  Cancer/ ALS has reeked its havoc on my family through the years… Makes one wonder about the environment we grew up in… Oh well, it’s all in the past, got to move forward…   My Spring Training buddies will arrive today!  The three Amigos, Chuck, Rick and Duane, will be loose in Juno Beach! HA!  I couldn’t sleep last night, and got up at 3:30am this morning, and thought, oh, what the hell, might as well write!  So, here I am!  Oh, the replies part of the Pfennig, still are inoperable… And no, I didn’t break it on purpose! I miss the comments!  Dire Straits greet me this morning with their song: Brothers In Arms..

Well, there are little to no follow-up yesterday to the Friday price action in the dollar… The BBDXY was basically flat on the day, up just pennies… I read on Kitco yesterday that there was some short covering going on in Gold, and that allowed Gold to gain $6.10, but, as Ed Steer points out in his daily letter, the gains were dealt with in the usual fashion….  Silver was down 13-cents on the day yesterday… I’m going to say this one more time… These are BUYING OPPORTUNITIES! 

The price of Oil was down a buck, and ended the day trading with a $75 handle, while something strange is going on in bonds… The 10-year’s yield hasn’t moved out of a 3.94-95% range in a week now… Stuck in the mud is what I normally say, but with all that’s going on with rate hikes, and stock selling, one would think that this wouldn’t be stuck in the mud… But, it is, what it is… And we move along…

In the overnight markets last night…I think the overnight traders were asleep at the wheel, because there was little to no movement in the currencies/ dollar…  The euro has regained the 1.06 handle, but that’s small potatoes… It looked to me as if everyone yesterday, wanted to take a breather, after Friday’s massacre of the currencies and metals by the dollar… And so, today, should be interesting to see which way the markets turn…   Gold in the early trading today, is down $8, and Silver is down 3-cents… Those are figures that could very easily be turned around, so let’s not give up on the day, just yet…  Oil gained back the buck it lost yesterday, last night, and trades this morning with a $76 handle…  And bonds are still stuck in the mud.

I just don’t know what else to say about how the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel has gone about combating inflation… They have botched it up from the get-go… Remember them telling us last year, that the inflation was just “transitory”?  They kept that line going for months, when they could have been using that time to begin to hike rates in an attempt to get ahead of the rising inflation…  Then the first rate hike was just 25 Basis Points.. .Talk about useless! As useless as a pay toilet in a diarrhea ward!  Ok, sorry for that graphic description, but sometimes they are required!

And now, after a few 50 Basis Points rate hikes, the Fed Heads have reverted back to 25 Basis Points, which keeps them way behind the rate of inflation… I shake my head in disgust… But then what else should have I expected from these non-elected balance sheet pros? 

And on the other side of the curtain, we have the stock jockeys crying about the rate hikes, and how they are going to cause a recession…  You see, most of these guys, and gals, are young, and have never been through a down time in the economy, when all the excesses of the previous boom are wiped clean and then the economy starts again, anew…  So, they have fear that if we go into a recession that we wont’ come out of it… And their fears are warranted… But… they need to embrace the recession, and get on with it, because the sooner it starts the sooner its over…

The Supreme Court will hear arguments today on two challenges to the Biden administration’s student loan forgiveness plan. The challenges involve a lawsuit brought by six states and a separate lawsuit by two students with student loan debt who wouldn’t benefit from all the provisions. See the players here.

The 6-3 conservative-led court will decide first if the plaintiffs have standing, or the right to sue. Next, they will decide if the government exceeded its authority and circumvented Congress in using the 2003 HEROES Act to justify the program.

I sure hope the Supremes, get this right…  And that’s all I have to say about that!

The Supremes could be singing: Stop, in the name of the constitution!  

And in the case of: it was bound to happen sometime….  Well, we have robotic vacuum sweepers… we have robotic cars, we have robotic other things, and now we will begin to see… are you ready for this? Well, here’s what I’m talking about: : Robot-turned-commercial-lawnmower!   If this were 30 years ago, I could hear my son saying, “Sign me up for one of those”! HA!

Remember how mad I was about the Inflation Reduction Act? And called it out for what it was, nothing more than more money printing?  Well, longtime adversary of money printing, former Sen Ron Paul, was also not happy with the Act… Let’s listen in: “Former Rep. Ron Paul called the president’s H.R. 5376 bill, otherwise known as the Inflation Reduction Act, a “vicious financial scheme,”

In August 2022, Republican Rep. Jason Smith reportedly said that the legislation would continue to aggravate inflation, adding $114 billion to the national debt because it masks the actual price of the bill.

Paul reportedly said that the federal government will make the dollar worthless by continuing to print money. This will erode the currency and therefore the savings and retirement of average Americans. But the former politician allegedly has a solution for the American people. He suggested that they invest in physical gold which will avoid taxation. He also allegedly said that physical gold is more trustworthy than “paper gold.”

Chuck again… You tell ‘em Ron

Well, well, well, what have we here? Ahh grasshopper, it’s another hedonic adjustment from our friends (NOT!) at the Gov’t accounting…  It was announced a couple of weeks ago, that the feds would eliminate “rents” from their inflation calcs…  Wanna know why they did that?  Well, we can all guess that rents had skyrocketed, and therefore they would make the stupid CPI calc even higher, right?  Well, guess again… This from Bloomberg.com “Apartment rents fell in every major metropolitan area in the U.S. over the past six months through January, a trend that is poised to continue as the biggest delivery of new apartments in nearly four decades is slated for this year. 

Renters with new leases in January paid a median rent that was 3.5% lower than they would have paid last August.”

So…. Putting my tin foil hat on, I’m going to point out something that I’ve talked about for years now, and that is that the Gov’t knows that inflation is the only tool they have left to pay their debts…  So, think about that for a minute, and you’ll come right back to why they removed Rents from their calcs….  In the end though, this is just another case where the “Gov’t moves the goalposts yet, again!” 

The US. Data Cupboard yesterday has January Durable Goods, and they surprised the markets and me, by going negative -4.3%!   Didn’t make sense to me, but so be it…  Just more rot on the economy’s vine, for sure…  The Data Cupboard today, just has the Case/Shiller Home Price Index for January… It’s almost March, and we’re just now seeing this data… Sure doesn’t help matters much that’s for sure!

To recap… There was little to no follow-up for the dollar yesterday, or last night… The dollar has basically taken ten, for now… Chuck thinks that today’s price action will give us a better reading as to how the week will play out… Gold saw some short covering yesterday, and was allowed to gain $6.10, but in the early trading this morning Gold has given it back! UGH!  Chuck’s not happy with the Fed Heads, as usual, but today he spells out the way they have bumbled, stumbled, fumbled the way they went about combating inflation… And are you read for a robotic lawnmower?

For What It’s Worth…  well, what do we have here this morning? Seems we have word from China that they are shuttering a large Lithium supply… that news and more can be found here: Lithium Industry Reeling After China Shutters 10% Of Global Supply | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “That’s a nice little EV industry you got over there in the U.S., it’s be a shame if suddenly it found itself without the most important commodity.

That’s one way to interpret what just happened in China; another – a less cynical – is the way Bloomberg described it, namely that China’s lithium industry itself is reeling as its top production hub – responsible for around a 10th of the world’s supply – faces sweeping closures amid a government probe of environmental infringements.

The crackdown in Yichun, Jiangxi province, also known as the country’s “Lithium capital” follows a local lithium frenzy over the past year as miners raced to feed rampant demand for the battery material — and to benefit from record global prices. Now, they’re grappling with a close-up inspection by environment officials sent from Beijing.

According to Yicai newspaper, ore-processing operations in Yichun have been ordered to stop as investigators probe alleged violations at lithium mines. That, Bloomberg notes, threatens somewhere between 8% and 13% of global supply, according to various analyst estimates, although it’s unclear for how long the immediate shutdowns will last.

The sudden probe injects a big dose of uncertainty into a lithium market that has seen prices drop, bringing some relief to EV manufacturers, as more global output emerges. Jiangxi province was expected to be a big source of extra supply, from a lithium-bearing mineral known as lepidolite.”

Chuck again… well, this is something that could be HUGE, or it could be tiny…  we’ll have to keep an eye on this going forward… I’m sure all the electric cars owners will be watching it!

Market Prices 2/28/2023: American Style: A$.6721, kiwi .6145, C$ .7360, euro 1.0611, sterling 1.2075, Swiss $1.0664, European Style: rand 18.4359, krone 10.3515, SEK 10.4180, forint 357.94, zloty 4.4467, koruna 22.2395, RUB 74.89, yen 136.16, sing 1.3489, HKD 7.8495, INR 82.66, China 6.9359, peso 18.34, BRL 5.2012, BBDXY 1,253.01, Dollar Index 104.69, Oil $76.46, 10-year 3.94%, Silver $20.71, Platinum $941.00, Palladium $1,438.00, Copper $3.99, and Gold… $1,810.80

That’s it for today, and for February! Crazy times we live in, eh? Well, I sat by myself at the ballpark yesterday, in absolutely delightful weather, watchin my beloved Cardinals beat the pond scum Mets… I joke calling the Mets pond scum, as it dates back to the 80’s when it was either the Mets or the Cardinals for about a 6 year period, that won the division… (back then there were only two divisions in each league) and a radio station in St. Louis, decided that the Mets were pond scum…  I don’t really look at them that way, just thought I would pull a rabbit out of the 80’s! I was worn out yesterday after the game, and a trip to the grocery store! It’s the little things that get to me these days… Humble Pie takes us to the finish line today with their great rock classic song: I Don’t Need No Doctor… A young Peter Frampton was the guitar player in that band…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

February 27, 2023

* currencies & metals get whacked on Friday!

* PCE rises in January, showing inflation isn’t going away… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What a fantastic weekend I just had! Baseball started again, and to me, that signals a new year!  I was treated on Saturday for the first game of Spring, with a visit from a former colleague, Suzanne Lee, and her son Riley, went to the game with me… The weather this past weekend was the weather that people come to Florida for…  My Beloved Mizzou Tigers won a road game on Saturday, while the St. Louis U. Billikens won at home, and… our brand spanking new soccer team, City SC, won their inaugural game! That’s only the 2^nd time in the history of the league that and expansion team won its first game!   I’m excited about going to see them play when I return home in April…  Marvin Gaye, and Tammy Terrel, greet me this morning with their song: Ain’t Nothing Like The Real Thing…

Whoa, there partner! What the heck happened on Friday, last week? The dollar bugs went on a buying spree, and the BBDXY rose 8 index points! The currencies got walloped Big Time, with the euro falling into the 1.05 handle… It was just a couple of weeks ago, when the euro was nearing 1.10…  But it wasn’t just the euro that got taken to the woodshed on Friday, pound sterling was tagging along. In addition, the Japanese yen, Aussie dollar, and kiwi, also got sent there… It was an absolute ugly day for the currencies… Even the Mexican peso that had recently seen some love once again, lost some ground to the dollar on Friday…  

So, what was the all the dollar buying about? Well, recall that I’ve told you that the markets are in what I call “opposites”?   On Friday, the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s preferred inflation report the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) surprised the forecasters, and the inflation gage gained .6%, in January, thus proving that inflation isn’t going away. The annual gain was 5.4%, so even using this gage, the Fed Funds Rate is still below inflation, and that’s not going to do the trick, folks…

So, with inflation rising once again, the markets now believe that the Fed Heads will indeed continue to hike rates, and the higher rates, even though they are killing the U.S. debt servicing, are what got the dollar bugs all excited…  I’ll just say this… The debt servicing of the U.S. on their outstanding Treasuries, just went past our Military expenditures…   That’s incredible isn’t it?  And…it’s just going to get worse, and that’s going to require lawmakers to make some very difficult decisions, in the future, about what CAN get paid and what CAN’T get paid… And the CAN’T get paid category will have more items in it than the CAN get paid category…  I’m just saying…

But what’s a Fed Head supposed to do? Inflation is here, and it’s being very sticky, and the only tool the Fed Heads have to combat it, is with rate hikes…  So, here, I’m not blaming them, for this… I have blamed them for allowing all the deficit spending that required money printing…   And that’s what got us into this mess…

In the overnight markets last night… There wasn’t much movement, and no further buying of the dollar to follow up Friday’s mash up by the dollar bugs. The BBDXY is down just 2 index points this morning, as it appears that the foreign markets decided to take a step back and review the damage…  Gold is up $2 in the early trading this morning, while Silver has given back 11-cents…  These are some really interesting buying opportunities for Gold & Silver folks… wink, wink… 

Well, remember when the 4^th QTR GDP printed at 2.9%, and I said, well, we’ll see what the future revisions bring us?  Well, one of those revisions last week, showed that 4^th QTR GDP was revised down to 2.7%… And by the time all the revisions are made, I suspect we’ll see GDP at 2.5%…   And then we’ll move on to the 1^st QTR’s GDP, which in my opinion will be down even more… And mainly because Gov’t spending has been cut back in this QTR…  So… I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see… eh?  The price of Oil has hung onto the $76 handle, and bonds are really unmoved through all this…  It looks like a week that will be filled with attempts to move the dollar higher, that will be thwarted by those not looking through rose colored glasses…   I’m just saying…

You know the Fed Heads aren’t the only Central Bankers getting hell for hiking rates and making things look gloomy for their economy…  Down under, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is under a lot of criticism, for their rate hikes, and how the economy there  is looking shaky…  These are the times that Central Bankers earn their respective livings…  And in a case of what’s good for the dollar (rate hikes, and a shaky economy, isn’t good for the other currencies, this is where we are today with the dollar and the currencies…

One of these days, traders will see the writing on the wall, that they seem to be ignoring right now… And when they do… We will begin to see a multi-year decline in the dollar, and not one of those 1-3 months declines that are reversed by the PPT, and their treasure chest of Exchange Stabilization Funds…

I remember writing in the Decline of the Dollar, white paper, written in 2001, that it was at that time that I pointed out the Housing Bubble that was getting blown up in the U.S. The Bubble didn’t find the pin in the room until 2007, but there I was talking about how we had a housing bubble in 2001, and everyone, even the mortgage people in our own bank, didn’t believe me, said it wasn’t real, and thought I had lost my mind…   Needless to say, in a few years, they were rooting me on, to make as much in earnings for the bank as I could, since they were losing their collective shirts! 

Like, 2001, today’s pricing action reminds me of all that.. .I’m just saying…

What’s it going to take for the traders and investors to see the writing on the wall for the U.S. economy, and thus the dollar?  That’s the $64 question, folks… I would have thought that housing losing over $2.3 Trillion in values would do the trick, I would have thought that the stock market going into a bear market would do the trick, and I thought the Fed losing any credibility that was left would do the trick, and still here we are, waiting for the sentiment toward the dollar to change… The economy is moving slowly toward extinction, we’ll have to wait awhile for that to happen… but then, maybe not!

Can you believe that southern California is getting whacked with snow?  In the mountains 50 miles from Los Angeles they received 7 feet of snow!  While here in S. Florida, the weather is chamber of Commerce like… While back home in St. Louis, they have been enjoying the mildest February… Strange weather patterns, eh? It appears that for most of the country, March will come in like a lamb… My mom used to always say, March comes in like lamb and goes out like a lion…  Hmm…   

Last Friday’s U.S. Data Cupboard also had Personal Spending and Income for January… Personal Spending rebounded in January after faltering in December, by gaining 1.8%… But Personal Income was up only .6%, following December’s .3% gain… So, wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, and that’s how the whole shootin’ match goes up in flames…

Today’s Data Cupboard has the Durable Goods orders for January… I’m expecting this data set to be positive, as if Personal Spending was up, then they were buying durable goods!   See how that works?

To recap… The dollar buying on Friday, was off the charts, with the BBDXY gaining 8.5 index points on the day…   Gold lost $10.70, and Silver lost 56-cents… and lost the $21 handle!   The dollar buying was something to behold… it was swift, it was strong, it was taking no prisoners… Chuck thinks that this is a case of what’s bad for the dollar is also good for the dollar… And that won’t continue forever…   The RBA is experiencing the same criticism as the Fed/ Cabal, Cartel is for hiking rates and putting their respective economies in peril… In the overnight markets last night…

For What It’s Worth… I found this article on Bloomberg.com yesterday, and it sounded as if I was the one that wrote it… It’s about the future of the dollar strength we’re seeing right now, and it can be found here: USD: Dollar Strength Peaks, Bringing Relief for Global Inflation, Trade – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Some of the world’s top investors are betting the worst of the dollar’s rampage is over after the surge upended the global economy in ways that had few parallels in modern history.

Having skyrocketed to generational highs last year — deepening poverty and turbocharging inflation from Pakistan to Ghana — the currency has now entered what some forecasters are calling the start of a multi-year decline.

Investors say the dollar is on the way down because the bulk of Federal Reserve rate increases is over, and virtually every other currency will strengthen as their central banks keep tightening. While recent data have led traders to rethink how high US rates will go, a shift to risk assets from equities to emerging markets is already underway on bets that the greenback’s strength will ease. Many investors are sticking with these bets, even after the greenback recently recouped its losses for the year, raising the stakes for dollar bears.

“The dollar’s peak is behind us for sure and a structurally weaker dollar lies ahead,” said George Boubouras, a three-decade market veteran and head of research at hedge fund K2 Asset Management. “Yes inflation in the US is stubborn, yes the rates market is signaling higher-for-longer US rates but that doesn’t take away the fact that other economies in the world are catching up with the US.”

A stronger-than-expected reading in a key US inflation gauge Friday, showed just how painful the US dollar’s strength can be. The greenback climbed near year-to-date highs, while riskier assets such as emerging market currencies and stocks slumped across the board. The Australian dollar and the Japanese yen fell more than 1%.

The relief that a weaker dollar would bring to the world economy cannot be overstated. Import prices for developing nations will fall, helping to lower global inflation. It’s also likely to boost the price of everything from gold to as equities and cryptocurrencies as sentiment improves.”

Chuck again… or was that really Chuck in the FWIW snippet? HA!  You know, at one time in the early 2000’s I was about the only person on the earth that wrote about the currencies, the dollar, Gold, etc. I used to be the only person at the Money Shows, the Conferences I attended that talked about these things… Whenever a news outlet wanted to know what was happening with the dollar, Gold, etc. they would contact me!  So, when this person wrote the FWIW article, and it sounded like me, I had to think that maybe, just maybe they heard me speak somewhere along the line, or read an article or white paper that I had written, and liked my style of writing…   Or, maybe I’m just imagining things… Hey! It’s happened before! Don’t laugh! HA!

Market Prices 2/27/ 2023: American Style: A$ .6713, kiwi .6146, C$ .7353, euro 1.0563, sterling 1.1984, Swiss $1.0639, European Style: rand 18.4023, krone 10.3799, SEK 10.4701, forint 359.84, zloty 4.4655, koruna 22.3766, RUB 75.25, yen 136.23, sing 1.3491, HKD 7.8476, INR 82.84, China 6.9508, peso 18.35, BRL 5.1789, BBDXY 1, 255.76, Dollar Index 104.44, Oil $76.19, 10-year 3.95%, Silver $20.75, Platinum $927.00, Palladium $1,419.00, Copper $4.02, and Gold… $1,813.13

That’s it for today… Well, today and tomorrow, and then we’re finished with February, and March begins, and March is one of my fave months!  Baseball begins, the weather turns better, St. Pat’s Day, the Ides of March, my birthday ,March Madness, The Honda Open, and everything begins to turn green again!  The moon is in the right place, the stars are in alignment, and that means Baseball is back! Did I tell you that I’m so happy that Baseball is back? Oh, I did? Sorry about that!  HA!  Our Blues are circling the bowl… The coach even says his players are not giving effort… UGH!  Time to get out the golf clubs…  The Allman Brothers take us to the finish line this morning with their song: Ramblin’ Man  That was their first radio hit song… Though the Allman Brothers weren’t made for radio play…   I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, and will remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

February 23, 2023

* dollar buying continues in the overnight markets

* Fears of higher rates sends Oil to the woodshed… 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all… Well, we’re just a couple of weeks away from my spring vacation, and I’m sure you will miss me dearly each and every day that I am away…  HA! As if! No games last night for my teams, means no one lost!  It’s been that way lately for my teams, the Mizzou Tigers, SLU Billikens, and the Blues… Soon, the Cardinals will be in the mix, but not for another month. (sprig training games are not real games, but I love them nonetheless) Had a great Greek dinner last night with my buddy, Gus, who also had his two grand daughters with him… I had never had anything Greek, other than spinach pie, gyros, and a Greek salad… The food was awesome, the ambiance was real Greek, and everyone had a grand time!  Toad The Wet Sprocket greets me this morning with their song: Walk On The Water…  (that’s a great 90’s song, and if you don’t know it, YouTube it)

When I left you yesterday morning, the dollar was still getting bought… But Gold was up in the early trading… Well, all that  as the day went along… The dollar ended up down on the day, and Gold did too…  The BBDXY lost 1 index point on the day, so no great shakes in the selling of the dollar, and Gold saw price manipulation, BIG TIME, and ended up losing $8.70 on the day to close at $1,826.80, and Silver lost 34-cents, to close the day at $21.59…

The price of Oil slipped another buck yesterday to end the day trading with a $74 handle…  This Oil price confuses me more than anything… But we’ll leave this for another day to discuss…  The 10-year’s yield dropped a bit at ended the day with a 3.92% yield…

The Big News yesterday, was the FOMC Minutes, which showed that quite a few Fed Heads wanted/ favored a 50 BASIS POINTS rate hike but had to settle with a 25 BPS rate hike… That really got the price manipulators revved up, for they saw the news as an opportunity to show up at the COMEX window with arms full of short Gold / Silver contracts….  My question would be… If the Fed Heads were in favor of a 50 BPS rate hike, why then did the rate hike only come in a 25 BPS?  

I think I know the answer to that question, but if I tell you, it will sound like I’m saying the Fed Heads want the U.S. economy to deal with inflation longer…   I know that sounds a little far fetched, but… think about it, and remember what I’ve told you in the past, that the U.S. wants inflation to lessen the effects of their debt…  if you can turn a $20 debt, into a debt worth just $5…  You’ve done yourself a BIG FAVOR! Never mind the fact that citizens having to deal with this inflation is falling to their knees…

In the overnight markets last night… The markets didn’t move much at all, with the BBDXY gaining one index point, Gold is flat this morning, and everything else seems to be in  state of shock… Silver is flat to start the day, and the price of Oil slipped another buck, and trades this morning with a $74 handle… Bond traders saw the wording of the FOMC Minutes, and got to marking down bonds once again, which means the price of the bond goes down, and the yield goes higher… 

I think the tech people are working on a “work around” for replying to the Pfennig… If you see something different, just follow the instructions, and your response will end up in the Pfennig Replies box…

That public service announcement was brought to you by the good Folks at the Aden Forecast, who are the publishers of this letter!

The carry trade that I talked about yesterday, was in play yesterday, just from the looks of the price of yen faltering, and the price of kiwi, and peso, gaining…   I’m sure there are other currencies that the investors using the Carry Trade are looking to buy… But those two are the highest yielding currencies in the major currency world…

I found this on Bloomberg.com… “The value of the US housing market shrunk by the most since the 2008 as the pandemic boom fizzled out.

After peaking at $47.7 trillion in June, the total value of US homes declined by $2.3 trillion, or 4.9%, in the second half of 2022, according to real estate brokerage Redfin. That’s the largest drop in percentage terms since the 2008 housing crisis, when home values slumped by 5.8% from June to December.”

Chuck… I guess you would have been living under a rock, or not reading the Pfennig to not know that the rate hikes by the FOMC would lead to House prices falling…   I told you in this letter, what would happen… I do have to say that while the rest of the country is seeing home prices falling, here in Florida, that’s not happening.. There’s been a slew of New Yorkers, New Jersey, and other high tax North East states, seeing their constituents move to Florida… Just a country bumpkin’s illustration of this, is Traffic down here is crazy!  Unlike the previous years!     

Those crazy North Easteners, are buying whatever they can find, at whatever the seller wants to sell it for…  And rents? OMG, the rents people are paying for Florida condos, apartments, etc. The rents are moon shots!    Crazy/ silly money, chasing few opportunities…

I found this on Fox News: “U.S. household debt jumped to the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis last year as mortgages surged amid high inflation and rising interest rates, according to a new analysis published by WalletHub.

The findings show that household debt – which increased by $320 billion in the final three months of 2022 – hit a 15-year-high of $17 trillion. On average, a typical household owed a total of $142,680 at the end of the year.”

Chuck again.. Building debt to astronomical levels.. and hoping for a bailout… That’s what I see going on here… and why not? The Gov’t is paying for Student Loans that were astronomical in size, why not bail out credit cards, home loans, car loans, etc?    I think these folks will be waiting a long time before they get bailed out… So, the next step for them is to file for bankruptcy…   I’m just saying…

When the U.S. Consumer gets tapped out, the U.S. economy goes south… And what is supposed to pick up the slack of weak Consumer spending?  Well, according to the Keynesians, the Gov’t should step in at this time… But if the Gov’t steps in this time, they will be creating more inflation ….  

And Fortune.com said this: Americans are racking up debt and burning through their savings—economists warn it could spark a recession…

Inflate or die…  

Or… Got Gold?

And to add salt to the wound this morning, how about this ditty that I read about? … While the unemployment rate sits at its lowest level in decades, cracks are beginning to form in the subprime auto loan market.

According to Moody’s, some 9.3% of auto loans extended to people with low credit scores are at least 30 days late, the highest since 2010, the WSJ reports.

Boy, I’m full of seashells and balloons this morning, ain’t I? hey, here’s some sunshine for us before we head to the Big Finish this morning… The Sun is rising out of the ocean, it’s a beautiful sight… Ahhh….

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the FOMC Meeting Minutes, and they sounded a bit like this… “FOMC Minutes Suggest Fed Fears Financial Conditions Decoupling, Warns About High Equity Valuations”, and that was in contrast to what FOMC chairman Powell said in his press conference following the meeting… So, now the markets are really confused!  What to go Jay.. you’ve done your job! You’ve confused the markets so they don’t’ know which way is up, down, around, or still…

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the usual fare for a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, in the weekly Initial Jobless claims… In addition the first revision to 4^th QTR GDP will print, and then we have two Fed Heads scheduled to speak… And that’s allllllll folks… in my best porky pig voice…

To recap… The dollar buying stopped for a brief rest yesterday, and the early morning gains in the dollar index turned negative by one index point to end the day. The FOMC Meeting Minutes showed the Fed Heads preferring a 50 Basis Point hike, instead of the 25 BPS rate hike delivered at that time… Chuck questions the Fed Heads’ collective sanity… In addition, Jerome Powell confused the markets with his comments… nothing new here…  Remember Fed Speak, from Big Al Greenspan?  Chuck is Mr. negative with regards to the U.S. economics… so you’ve got that going for you  this morning!

For What It’s Worth…  In keeping with my negativity for today, this article I found this past weekend, and then forgot I had it queued up for a FWIW article, until yesterday… So, here it is.. this is about what I’ve been telling you for sometime now, about how the rest of the world is giving up on holding dollars, and it can be found here: Half the world to dump U.S. dollars in future, causing ‘tsunami of inflation’ and asset price ‘collapse’, paving the way for CBDCs and The Great Reset – Andy Schectman | Kitco News

Or, here’s your snippet: “As the world moves away from the U.S. dollar as a world reserve asset, dollars will be dumped globally, causing a “tsunami of inflation” in the United States as the currency returns to American shores. Interest rates will rise accordingly, followed by a “collapse” in asset prices, which would be used to usher in Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and The Great Reset.

This dire scenario is the forecast of Andy Schectman, President and Owner of Miles Franklin and an expert on monetary and economic history. Schectman, who has three decades of experience in the precious metals sector, said that the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) coalition could lead the charge to develop their own reserve currency which would compete against the U.S. dollar.

“The BRICS are, I think, coalescing against the dollar, the perceived hypocrisy and hegemony of the dollar,” he said. “We’ve already been told that the BRICS currency would be pegged to gold or to commodities, the assumption being that gold is one of the commodities.”

The BRICS are meeting in Durban, South Africa in August, and one of their agenda items is the development of an alternative to the U.S. dollar.

Schectman told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, that the dollar’s “weaponization” during the Russian war with Ukraine has hastened the move to “dump” dollars. He suggested that Western sanctions on Russia, as well as expelling Russia from the SWIFT payment system, has had a chilling effect, deterring other nations from using the dollar.

“Since the weaponization of the dollar in 2022, it [de-dollarization] seems to be spinning much, much faster,” Schectman observed.

He pointed to Saudi Arabia, who has recently stated that it is open to accepting other currencies in exchange for its oil, as a potential catalyst for massive de-dollarization.”

Chuck Again…  makes you wonder why there’s so much dollar buying right now, doesn’t it? Oh well, when the time comes, the dollar bugs will be sorry… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 2/23/2023: American Style: A$ .6830, kiwi .6237, C$ .7393, euro 1.0605, sterling 1.2035, Swiss $1.0729, European Style: rand 18.3382, krone 10.3271, SEK 10.4299, forint 359.80, zloty 4.4772, koruna 22.3410, RUB 75.19, yen 134.94, sing 1.3425, HKD 7.8465, INR 82.74, China 6.8982, peso 18.31, BRL 5.1463, BBDXY 1,247.87, Dollar Index 104.55, Oil $74.78, 10-year 3.94%, Silver $21.60, Platinum $959.00, Palladium $1,476.00, Copper $4.11, and Gold…. $1,826.05

That’s it for today… and this week… As of today, I’ll be all by myself for the next 4 days, until my Spring Training Buddies, (Rick and Duane) arrive…  No worries, I have my iWatch on, which will notify the proper people if I fall…  I actually like it being along at first, and then after a few days, I long for companionship again… I have two new books to read to keep me busy, and my door dash account is active! HA!  My buddy Gus’s granddaughters are darling: Ava and Stella… and they are darling taking care of their grandpa…  Gus is from Greece, so he had to explain the items on the Greek menu last night to me and Kathy… At one time we had more food on our table than I had ever seen on a table before! Pink Floyd takes us to the finish line today with their song: Hey You! “Hey you, out there in the cold,Getting lonely, getting old, Can you feel me?” yeah, that song… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and please, please, with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

February 22, 2023

* dollar buying continues… 

* taking away civil liberties… and privacy… and well, everything! 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday… I have to say right off this morning, that I’m feel as though I’m missing something, not having the Pfennig Replies box working.. As I told you a week or so ago, there are technical reasons for the non-receipt of emails into the box… The powers that be, tell me that it will be fixed soon, but as of yet, it is still on the fritz… My beloved Mizzou Tigers pulled a win last night, that, in true honesty, they didn’t deserve to win, given they waited until OT to hi a 3 that counted…  But, a win is a win, and after losing 2 straight, I’ll take the win!  Our Blues lost again last night, and haven’t even been competitive since trading their captain, last week…  Aliota Haynes & Jeremiah, greet me this morning with their classic rock song: Lake Shore Drive…

I know I’m begging to sound like a broken record, saying that the dollar continued to get bought yesterday, but.. it’s what it is, and there’s nothing I can spin to make it look good…  (shoot Rudy, I’m not the government, here with books to cook!)  Dollar strength, no matter how it was started, is dollar strength, and the currencies and metals all suffer…  The BBDXY gained 4 index points yesterday, and Gold lost $6.50 on the day… Silver actually found a bid and gained 5-cents…Gold ended the day at $1,835.50, and Silver ended the day at $21.91..

The price of Oil was unchanged yesterday, which meant that it traded with a $77 handle to end the day, an over in the bond arena…  the yield on the 10-year Treasury, rose to 3.935, and is looking like it’s next stop is 4%… 

In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar buying continued… the BBDXY gained 1.5 index points overnight… Gold is up $3 in the early trading, while Silver has given back 3-cents… The price of Oil slipped by a buck and trades with a $75 handle this morning, and Bonds are back to being stuck in the mud, after their recent rise in yields… I see the bond boys saying, “That’s enough, no more for now”…  Of course I don’t’ really know what they said, I just see the way the bonds are trading, and make my assumptions!

The Big News of the day yesterday, came from New Zealand, where the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, hiked rates 50 Basis Points to 4.75%… this rate hike, following the cyclone that hit the northern island last week, and left a lot of damage… But the RBNZ noted that there will be price spikes in the rebound of the island, and with inflation already running high… They hiked rates…

I made a BIG Deal about Mexico and their rate hikes yesterday, and today I’m making a BIG Deal about New Zealand’s rate hikes… The NZ OCR (official cash rate) is now 4.75%, which is equal to, or above the Fed Funds rate in the U.S., and yet it’s the dollar that keeps getting all the love from the markets because of their rate future… and at the same time, inflation in the U.S. continues to run at a level much higher than the Fed Funds rate…  In my day as a currency and foreign bond trader, these are the things that made it interesting to trade, without interference, and trader sentiment…  I’m just saying…

My longtime associate / friend, Addison Wiggin, sent me a link to a video yesterday, that’s quite interesting… It’s a video of a make believe fight between the ideals of Keynes, and the ideal s of Hayek… it was so interesting that I’ll supply the link to the video here: Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek – Economics Rap Battle Round Two – YouTube

Ok, longtime reader, Bob, sent me this, and I just couldn’t let it pass by without commenting on it, so here it is: “The reptilian annual World Economic Forum at Davos, where the masters of the universe meet to congratulate themselves on their benevolent dictatorship, is home to many sinister ideas. This year, one of the creepiest discussions of all was delivered under the guise of progress and productivity. Nita Farahany, a Duke University professor and futurist, gave a presentation at Davos about neurotechnology that is creating “brain transparency.” The new technologies, which Farahany says are being deployed in workplaces around the world … include a variety of wearable sensors that read the brain’s electrical impulses and can show how fatigued you are, whether you’re focused on the task at hand or if your attention is wandering. According to Farahany, thousands of companies have hooked workers ranging from train drivers to miners up to these devices already, in the name of workplace safety. But what we are really discussing is workplace surveillance. Farahany paints a picture of a near future in which every office worker could be fitted with a small wearable that would constantly record brain activity, creating an omnipotent record of your thoughts, attention and energy that the boss could study at leisure. Farahany acknowledges that there could be drawbacks here: “Done poorly, it could become the most oppressive technology we’ve ever introduced on a wide scale.” All of this raises the question: what exactly is your employer buying when they give you a paycheck? For bosses, the answer is simple: “Everything.”

Chuck again… OMG! First it’s digital currencies that will take away the last of our civil liberties, and now this?  Please tell me this won’t happen!

That was a long non FWIW this morning… I just don’t know what to think any longer, that’s going to be a good thing for all of us… 

Well, I have a quick quiz for you… Which currency is the lowest yielding currency? Well, if you said, the Japanese yen, you would get a Gold star!  Or a happy face!   The Japanese currency now has the lowest implied yield of 31 currencies analyzed by Bloomberg, and so guess what’s back en vogue? The Carry Trade!  Talk about brining back a trad that used to dominate the markets, well, it’s back!  Investors are using the yen to fund their purchases of higher yielding currencies… This Carry Trade was responsible for the wild trading in Aussie dollars and kiwi in the last weak dollar trend… That’s when we saw both of those currencies trade higher than $1.00!  

So, pick a high yielding currency, ala kiwi, pesos, etc and watch how it gets bought as the other side of the sell of yen…   This is going to be fun!   I’m just saying…

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the FOMC Meeting Minutes from their last meeting, when the opted to only hike 25 Basis Points… This is the meeting that Jerome Powell, FOMC Chairman, made sure the markets heard him, as he talked about how there was going to pain, and that interest rates needed to go higher… And that there would be no rate cut in 2023…  At first the markets didn’t believe him, and kept trading like he didn’t say those things, but eventually, they have come 180 degrees, and come to agree with him…

To recap… The dollar continues to be bought, Chuck thinks he’s beginning to sound like a broken record! The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, hiked rates 50 Basis Points, to bring their OCR to 4.75%, I can see this in my strange mind… The RBNZ throws out their 50 Basis Point rate hike and says to the U.S. Fed… “I’ll see your 25 BPS rate hike, and raise you 25 BPS more”!  Chuck goes off the rails this morning, with more stuff that’s not going to be good for us, private citizens!   And the Carry Trade is Back!  

For What It’s Worth… it was slim pickings for FWIW worthy articles this morning… I had to settle on this article from Reuters that appeared yesterday, and is about Russia dropping the last nuclear treaty with the U.S.  and it can be found here: Russia’s Putin issues new nuclear warnings to West over Ukraine | Reuters

Or, here’s your snippet: “ President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday delivered a warning to the West over Ukraine by suspending a landmark nuclear arms control treaty, announcing that new strategic systems had been put on combat duty, and threatening to resume nuclear tests.

Nearly a year after ordering an invasion that has triggered the biggest confrontation with the West in six decades, Putin said Russia would achieve its aims and accused the West of trying to destroy it.

“The elites of the West do not hide their purpose. But they also cannot fail to realise that it is impossible to defeat Russia on the battlefield,” he told his country’s political and military elite.

Alleging that the United States was turning the war into a global conflict, Putin said Russia was suspending participation in the New START treaty, its last major arms control treaty with Washington.

Signed by then-U.S. president Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev in 2010, the treaty caps the number of strategic nuclear warheads that the countries can deploy.”

Chuck again… I shake my head in disgust, and fear that this will continue to be a show of arms, and then who knows what else this saber rattling will bring us? 

Market Prices 2/22/2023: American Style: A$ .6819, kiwi .6226, C$ .7380, euro 1.0626, sterling 1.2087, Swiss $1.0774, European Style: rand 18.2601, krone 10.3342, SEK 10.3723, forint 360.19, zloty 4.4700, koruna 22.3026, RUB 75.39, yen 134.76, sing 1.3400, HKD 7.8459, INR 82.55, China 6.8953, peso 18.44, BRL 5.1623, BBDXY 1,247.70, Dollar Index 104.30, Oil $75.56, 10-year 3.94%, Silver $21.88, Platinum $954.00, Palladium $1,526.00, Copper $4.10, and Gold… $1,838.73

That’s it for today… Today is Ash Wednesday, the beginning of Lent, for us Christians… I went through the Shrove / Fat Tuesday stuff yesterday… I hope you bulked up! HA!  A very warm day here yesterday, which is the opposite of what’s going on in the North across the country right now… Be careful up there!  3 more days until my first spring training game! It’s almost here! YAHOO! The return of baseball! I read an article the other day, talking about how baseball needed to appeal to the younger generation, because the younger generation believes the game is too boring and too long…  Well, all I can say to that, is…They just don’t get the beauty of the game… The Temptations take us to the finish line today with their song: Papa Was A Rolling Stone…  So.. go get your ashes on your forehead, and get ready for 6 weeks of not eating meat on Friday… When I was a young man, we didn’t eat meat on ANY Friday! Another case of making things easier for the younger generation!  I hope you have a Wonderful Ash Wednesday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

 

 

February 21, 2023

* the dollar buying continues… 

* Who’s going to buy all the Treasuries that will be issued?

Good Day, and a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! And… It’s Shrove Tuesday!  I’ll explain that later today.. Well, how was your holiday weekend? I hope it was grand, because that’s the last 3-day weekend we’ll have for a few months… The weather here was grand, and I spent most of the days, outside, reading… I’m still walking each day… a little bit, that is… about 2,500 steps a day… I don’t foresee myself getting to the point where I’m walking 5 miles a day, I like the distances I walk now, and they are enough in my mind…  I go to see the doctor/ surgeon that saved my life l last month, on Friday this week… Just a follow up to make sure I’m Ok… I could call it in, but better to go and left them see me in person! The Buckinghams greet me this morning with their song: Don’t You Care…

Well, the month of February has been all about the dollar… The BBDXY began the month at 1,227, and ended Friday at 1,242…  Those index points don’t really tell the damage to the currencies so far this month… The dollar, which had gone on a losing streak in January, has just about recovered all those losses in the month of Jan. And it all began that day when the  PPT decided that the dollar had last too much, and the price manipulators decided that Gold has reached too high…. And since then, it’s been one day after another of dollar strength, and Gold weakness…

That has the been the story of Feb… so far… What will the remaining days of Feb have in store for us? I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see… Last Friday, saw the dollar gain 2 index points, but Gold eked out a $6.20 gain, to end the week at $1,843.20, an Silver actually gained on the day, up 16-cents on Friday, to close the week at $21.81…    The data on the week was not dollar friendly, but… when the trend is your friend, nothing else matters… and so it is with the dollar right now… Friday, just happened to be a wild hair, of a day, in my opinion…  As far as Gold, goes, the recent price decline, as with Silver also, is proving to be a buying opportunity… What are you waiting for?

The price of Oil fell out of bed last week, and ended the wee trading with a $76 handle… It was just last week, that the price of Oil briefly hit $80… Ever since the announcement that the POTUS would release more special Oil reserves, the price of Oil has been scrambling to find a bid… And the rising yields in bonds that began early last week, kept going strong, and the 10-year Treasury ended the week with a 3.85% yield. 

I’ve got an article for you in the FWIW Section today, that relates to the rise in the 10-year’s yield… When no one shows up at the auction window to buy Treasuries, the next thing that happens is there’s a price adjustment to make them more attractive…

Speaking of making something more attractive…  I read a report the other day singing the praises of the Mexican peso…  Longtime readers will recall me always saying that the Mexican peso didn’t have an interest rate that proved to be a risk premium… But guess what happened on the way to the forum? The Mexican Central Bank slowly and under the cover of darkness hiked rates to their current level of 11%… And finally, in my opinion, Mexico pays a risk premium!  Oh, and why did the Central Bank have to hike rates so high? Because Mexico’s inflation rate is 7.9%…

Ok, so I’m saying this and I can’t believe I’m doing so… The Central Bank of Mexico has hiked rates above the rate of inflation, which is the way to combat inflation! And the U.S. Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, continues to combat inflation with peashooters…  if I were a Fed head, and I read this letter, I would be embarrassed that the Mexico, is going about fighting inflation the right way, and I’m not…    Ouch! That’s going to leave a mark!

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar buying continued… The BBDXY gained 2 index points last night, Gold is down $12 in the early trading, an the week is getting started on the wrong foot, once again…

Silver is up in the early trading, but we all know that’s a false dawn, given that Gold is down, and the dollar is up at this point. The price of Oil has bumped higher and trades this morning with a $77 handle, while bonds are breathing a sigh of relief after a very busy week, last that is… 

Well… here’s where I tick half the people off that read this letter… I don’t do this on purpose, but when something comes up that proves my point about cryptocurrency, then I have to point it out…  This is from G.Edward Griffin’s need to know news.com …  “Choke Point was a 2013 Obama policy that cut off banking from businesses that the administration did not like, such as the firearms industry, legal marijuana and the loan industry.

Choke Point 2.0 targets cryptocurrency (crypto) as regulators are cracking down on banks taking deposits from crypto clients, issuing stablecoins, engaging in crypto custody, or seeking to hold crypto as principal. The driving force behind the crackdown is the Biden administration, certain members of Congress, the Fed, the FDIC, the OCC, and the DoJ.

The US is now influencing international organizations like the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) that plans to kill cryptocurrency by labeling anything related as “high risk”. Any countries that don’t go along with FATF are cut off from financial services.”

Chuck again… OK, I’ll move on now…  it’s time for….. drum roll please… our regularly scheduled does of Bill Bonner….  Bill’s talked yesterday, about the Nord Stream Pipeline getting blown up…  Let’s listen In to what Bill is saying about it: “For today, we’ll close with an observation. What was most amazing about the media reports of last week was what wasn’t in them. Yes, the press worked hard last week to ignore the biggest story to come along in many years.

It appears that the president of the United States of America ordered the destruction of a vital piece of commercial infrastructure. The report, from respected investigative journalist Seymour Hersh (of Mai Lai and Abu Ghraib fame) presents a plausible case that the Biden Team blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. This is the sort of thing, as we pointed out last week, that Think Tanks might want to think about, but as Chesterton pointed out in his “Twenty Ways to Kill a Wife,” actually doing the deed reflects a stunning lack of thought.”

Chuck again… I think if you go back to when the pipeline explosion was first reported, I said that I would have thought the U.S. was behind it…  And there you go! Chuck was right again! 

I’m on a roll here, so don’t stop me!  Did they stop them when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? HHAHAHAHA, for those of you living on a different planet in this time, that was from the movie, Animal House!  Just trying to have some fun this morning, while the sun rises out of the ocean…

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to talk a little about Shrove Tuesday… Being of Irish decent, this is day is dear to my heart… You, see in days of old, people would prepare for the beginning of lent, which is tomorrow, by gathering up all their bread, eggs, butter, milk, and prepare pancakes, and then fill up on the pancakes… In America, we call today Fat Tuesday, for the same reason.. But Lent is no longer a time of fasting, so these traditions go out the window… But not with me, because?  You all know that I love traditions… So, where’s the syrup?

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the Producer Price Index (PPI), which, as I’ve explained before, is the wholesale inflation… The stuff that ends up down the line as Consumer inflation…  Here’s the skinny on the PPI… “Producer prices, or those charged by manufacturers, farmers and wholesalers, jumped 0.7% in January after dipping 0.2% in December. It was the largest gain since June and nearly double what economists had forecasted. “  (USA Today)

There’s really not much in this week’s Data Cupboard, other than the FOMC Meeting Minutes that will print on Wednesday, and then on Friday this week, we’ll finally see some real economic data, with Personal Spending and Income…  So, the dollar is free to move about the country this week, without any hinderance from data…

To recap… The month of Feb has given back all the losses the dollar took in January… It was all spurred on by the PPT and the price manipulators earlier this month, and the dollar hasn’t looked back since… Friday saw the dollar move higher by 2 index points, but Gold eke out a gain of $6.20 on the day…  In the overnight markets, the dollar continued to get bought, with the BBDXY gaining 2 index points, and Gold starting the week down $12…

For What It’s Worth…  The good folks at GATA sent me this over the weekend, and it caught my eye… This is from an Asian outlet that reported China’s holdings of Treasuries… And it can be found here: China’s U.S. Treasury holdings hit 12-year low on rate hikes, tensions – Nikkei Asia

Or, here’s your snippet: “China’s U.S. government bond holdings hit the lowest in over 12 years at the end of December, while its gold trove grew against a backdrop of American interest rate hikes and bilateral tensions.

Chinese holdings of Treasury securities fell for the fifth straight month in December to $867 billion, data published Wednesday by the U.S. Treasury Department shows.

The figure fell $173.2 billion, or 17%, in 2022 — the biggest drop since 2016. China was not the only nation to sell down its Treasury holdings — all foreign holdings of Treasury securities fell 6% in 2022 — but its move was large.

The decline came as the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates at a rapid pace to curb inflation. The benchmark 10-year yield had risen to nearly 4% at the end of December from around 1.5% a year earlier, and Chinese investors likely trimmed their holdings to avoid losses from a decrease in bond prices.

Geopolitical factors also played a role, market watchers said.

“Since the Russian invasion [of Ukraine], a move away from Treasurys … would be an understandable reaction to the political developments,” said a strategist at a U.S. asset manager, who sees the Chinese motivation as “wanting to maintain their independence and not be at risk.”

Chuck again… Well, why is this important? Because, dear reader, the U.S. needs to sell Treasuries to finance their every growing deficit spending/ debt.  I’ve already told you that Russia had stopped buying Treasuries, and now it appears that China is slowing weaning off their buying of Treasuries…  And that will eventually lead to the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel having to step up to buy bonds once again, and that means that the Treasury will have to print dollars to pay for them… This is self dealing, monetizing the debt… And we all know what all that dollar printing led to, right?  Here we go again!

Market Prices 2/21/2023: American Style: A$ .6870, kiwi .6237, C$ .7431, euro 1.0648, sterling 1.2099, Swiss $1.0809, European Style: rand 18.2399, krone 10.2852, SEK 10.3617, forint 359.64, zloty 4.3612, koruna 22.3074, RUB 74.96, yen 134.79, sing 1.3388, HKD 7.8434, INR 83.79, China 6.8785, peso 18.41, BRL 5.1623, BBDXY 1,244.39, Dollar Index 104.05, Oil $77.06, 10-year 3.84%, Silver $21.73, Platinum $935.00, Palladium $1,516.00, Copper $4.08, and Gold… $1,831.05

That’s it for today… Well, the rest of the team that wasn’t already here, had to have reported to camp yesterday, with the first spring game on Saturday this week, of which I’ll be there!  I hope to see you there! HA! My beloved Mizzou Tigers lost both their basketball games last week… no time for that, let’s pick up the pace here!   The St. Louis U. Billikens won their game on Saturday night… I do believe that the Billikens, after starting the season hot, will have to win the A10 Tournament to get the automatic bid to the Big Dance (NCAA Tournament, aka March Madness)  I’m starting to get chills about the first spring game! As I’ve said before, I’m like a kid at Christmas, this time of year!  So, fatten up today… it’s Shrove Tuesday!  Cat Stevens takes us to the finish line today with his great song: Morning Has Broken…  very appropriate for this morning, eh?   I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

February 16, 2023

* currencies and metals get whacked on Wednesday

* Sudan drops the dollar… 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all!  What an absolute beautiful day here in S. Florida yesterday… I’m told by the weather people on TV that we could experience near record highs the next two days… YAHOO! I walked a tiny bit further yesterday, getting to 2,500 steps… baby steps, it’s going to take me, for I have been very inactive for some time… I won’t make any excuses, although I have them lined up in case anyone ever wants to hear them! HA!  My SLU Billikens played Davidson late last night, for me anyway, the game was in St. Louis, and the Billikens won a close game until the end. This team started the year on a roll, but since their fast start, they have run into a few roadblocks, but now’s the time to get it back in gear, ahead of the A10 tournament… Otis Redding greets me this morning with his version of the Beatles’ song: Hard Day’s Night…

For some reason, I was thinking more about the Gov’t’s ability to pay things like Social Security, after yesterday’s rant in the Pfennig…  I don’t know if you remember this or not, but years ago, I used to talk about how for the next 17 years, 10,000 Baby Boomers would retire each year…  Well, I started doing the math, and in 2031 the last of those Baby Boomers will reach retirement age. That’s 8 years from now, which means for the next 8 years, 10,000 Baby Boomers will retire each year, drawing more strain on the Gov’t’s ability to pay them the money they contributed to the fund all those years…

OK… onto other things… The dollar kicked some tail and took names later yesterday… The BBDXY gained more than 8 index points on the day. The euro dropped back below 1.07, and the currencies across the board took a shot to the mid-section, and it left a mark! You’ll see how badly the currencies were beaten down yesterday, when you get to the market prices roundup..  With the dollar so strong, there was no way in hello operator, (I won’t go through all that again today) that Gold found a bid, and then with Gold starting the day down, the price manipulators piled on once again… Gold lost $17.70 on the day to close at $1,837.30, and Silver lost 21-cents to close at $21.71…

The price of Oil was pretty Steady Eddie and ended the day yesterday trading with a $79 handle… And Bonds continue to see their yields getting marked up, and their prices marked down… The 10-year Treasury had a yield of 3.80% to end the day yesterday…

In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar buying ended, but not with a bam, more a whimper, as the BBDXY lost 2 index points overnight… This yoyo that the euro is on right now is giving me severe dizziness… The euro is back above 1.07 this morning… Back and forth, back and forth, walk the dog, around the world, the sleeper, all yoyo tricks being played by traders with the euro… After the armegeddon that the PPT and the price manipulators caused last week, the Aussie dollar’s rise was interrupted, but appears to be water under the bridge now, and the A$ is back to rallying… 

The price of Oil is steady Eddie again overnight, and continues to flip-flop between $78 and $79.  And Bonds are… well, they are bonds, and they don’t have a good future… That’s all I’ll say about that here… But Matthew Piepenburg had plenty to say about the dire straits bonds are in, in his video that I provided you yesterday…  

Yesterday, was the birthday of St. Louis!   Yes, the city was founded on Feb 15, 1764 as Auguste Chouteau began  building St. Louis.  I a decade or so ago, I would have thought the city was going to just shrivel up and die… But, there’s been a revival and the young folks, like living in the city… Well, they can have it, because the only reason I go into the city any longer is to attend a Cardinals Baseball game, Blues Hockey Game, or Billikens Basketball game…  And I don’t do that regularly…

I know, I know, you didn’t tune in this morning to hear about the city of St. Louis!  But, it’s where I was born, and brought up, and lived until moving to Des Moines Iowa in 1978…

Circling back to the talk above about the U.S. Gov’t finding it difficult to pay anything other than bond servicing costs… Long time reader Bob, sent me a link to this info: “The United States is on track to add nearly $19 trillion to its national debt over the next decade, $3 trillion more than previously forecast, as a result of rising costs for interest payments, veterans’ health care, retiree benefits and the military, the Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday.”

That would put us at $50 Trillion in Debt… AYE, YAY, YAY…  or however you spell that!  Does anyone really believe we as a country will reach that level of debt before the financial system we currency use, hasn’t collapsed, under the weight of the current debt?  The Debt Clock tells me that in 4 short years, our debt will be $44 Trillion… So, I think I trust the Debt Clock’s math, more than I trust the Congressional Budget Office… for they are part of the Gov’t, right?  And… I don’t think we’ll make it to $44 Trillion either!

In news that got swept under the carpet… The good folks at GATA sent me this: South Sudan’s government has suspended the use of the U.S. dollar and instead directed all transactions be executed in the local currency, the South Sudanese pound.   Apparently, in the current time, U.S. dollars are used for just about everything, so a BIG change is coming here…

I know, I know, this is just Sudan, not Japan!   Yes, but one country drops the use of the dollar, begets another country, begets another country, and so on… So, that’s why I wrote about it…

The folks at Morgan Stanley, think the euro is in for some appreciation VS the dollar, I found this on Bloomberg.com, so let’s listen in to what they have to say, “A closely-watched interest-rate metric has convinced Morgan Stanley strategists that the euro area can withstand further increases in borrowing costs, boosting their bullish view on the single currency.

The near-term forward spread — the difference between the three-month rate and where investors see it in 18 months’ time — is inverted for markets including the US and New Zealand, but remains roughly flat for the euro zone after declining in January. That’s a sign that the European Central Bank can keep cranking up interests to tamp down on inflation without having to worry too much about the economic impact, said David Adams, head of Group-of-10 FX strategy at the bank.”

Chuck again… take that with how ever many grains of salt that you wish, for something here is making my spider sense tingle…  Could it be that age old saying that when a Broker House touts something, it means they are long the item, and they need other s to join in to push up the price?  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday was pretty busy… First of all we had Retail Sales for January, and this data surprised the markets with strength, as it posted a 3% gain… So, U.S. consumers were tapped out in December (retail sales were negative), and they bounced back in January and bought the farm? I find this to be somewhat unbelievable… Could be more data massaging and cooking going on here, I get that feeling… Because the production side is hurting badly, The Empire manufacturing index was negative, Industrial Production after printing negative in Dec, was flat as a pancake (Head East), in January, ever since Capacity Utilization hit 80% a couple of months ago, it has dropped each month since, with January’s print showing a 78.3% number…   So, let’s just go with the BHI, which said that Retail Sales would be disappointing, because that narrative plays well in the sandbox with the production numbers!  Yeah, that’s the ticket and I’m sticking with it!  Did I ever tell you that my first wife was a young Elizabeth Taylor?

To recap… The dollar kicked tail and took names later yesterday, with the BBDXY gaining 8 index points! Gold got whacked falling 17.70, and Silver falling 21-cents on the day… UGH!   The price of Oil was Steady Eddie, and bonds continued to see their yields rise… Crazy day, for sure! Well, Morgan Stanley likes the euro… At least someone other than me does!  Sudan drops the dollar in all terms of trade within the country… Chuck continues to worry about the debt in the U.S. and with years of Baby Boomer still to retire, the pressure on the Gov’t to keep paying them is in question..

For What It’s Worth…  I don’t know if you’ve followed the story of Trafigura, and how they got scammed and it cost them $577 Million… But this is an article  that talks about the mistakes they made, and how more businesses should be doing more diligence… And it can be found here: Trafigura $577 Million Nickel Scandal Should Be a Wakeup Call – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “When Russia invaded Ukraine last year, the world got a glimpse of what awaits supply chains in the future. Sudden supply constraints meant that the prices of many commodities, including metals and rare earths, spiked. Nickel prices, for example, rose by 90% in the first weeks after the invasion.

Many of these materials have specific roles to play in a low-carbon future: The International Energy Agency has predicted that, if the green transition takes hold, demand for nickel might increase 20 times. Most national governments have woken up to this reality and have started to look for ways to secure their supplies of critical materials. Yet, as we have just learned from commodity trader Trafigura Group’s loss of $577 million to possible fraud, the private sector is relatively unprepared for what the future may hold.

It is easy to look at some of these demand projections, do a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation, and predict easy profits. That would be a mistake. When demand in a sector grows by an order of magnitude and its total value increases manifold — rare earths alone will quintuple in value in the coming decades, according to the IEA — then the sector must take a closer look at how it organizes and governs itself.

Trafigura seems to have lost more than half a billion dollars mainly because it failed to check what was in the shipments against which it was lending money to companies associated with Indian metals trader Prateek Gupta. Internally, many questions will be asked: For example, why did the company keep doing business with Gupta even after he became the subject of a fraud investigation in India? Why did it agree to be paid for lending money against nickel shipments in yet more nickel?”

Chuck again… The article makes a good point, saying, “Trafigura Scandal Should Be a $577 Million Wakeup Call…. If traders try to keep up business as usual even as the value of critical metals and minerals skyrockets, they are going to face many more attempts at fraud.”   

Market Prices 12/16/2023: American Style: A$ .6910, kiwi .6285, C$ .7470, euro 1.0702, sterling 1.2051, Swiss $1.0843, European Style: rand 18.1360, krone 10.2070, SEK 10.4043, forint 356.95, zloty 4.3614, koruna 22.1246, RUB 74.81, yen 133.85, sing 1.3340, HKD 7.8494, INR 82.71, China 6.8560, peso 18.57, BRL 5.212, BBDXY  1,240.48, Dollar Index 103.69, Oil $78.51, 10-year 3.79%, Silver $21.56, Platinum $919.00, Palladium $1,407.00, Copper $4.02, and Gold… $1,837.16

That’s it for today… and until next Tuesday, for Monday is President’s Day Holiday!  All the remaining Cardinals pitchers and catchers, not going to report to WBC teams, reported to spring training yesterday at Roger Dean…  That means the first game is now just 9 days away! Most of the players are already in camp, so the dates are just ceremonious…  I can’t wait to walk into the stadium the first time, smell the grass the aromas of hot dogs on the grill, the sounds of baseballs hitting mitts, and other things… Roger Dean stadium is going to be going under $108 Million worth of updates after spring training ends this year, and the updates will take over a year go complete… This means more than the 6,500 seats in the stadium will then be available…  it’s been tough to obtain season tickets right now… I’m glad I bought mine over 10 years ago! Earth, Wind, and Fire takes us to the finish line today with their song: After The Love Is Gone…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and that you continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

February 15, 2023

* Currencies & metals get sold overnight… 

* Bond servicing costs keep rising… Uh-Oh! 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you… Well, did you have a sweet Valentine’s Day? Mine was low key, I did wear a red shirt when we went out for dinner last night! I did sent texts to “my girls”.. Delaney Grace, Daughter Dawn, and daughter Rachel… Evie is too young to have a cell phone! I told you a week ago that my wife and kids conspired and got me an iWatch… I resisted wearing at first, but then something weird happened… It kept telling me to stand up, and then while I was standing up, I decided to walk a bit, and now I’m counting my steps!  Don’t worry, I’m not over doing it…2,000 steps a day, which is equal to about 1 mile… At least I’m moving my body through space, which is good for me (I’m told)…  My wife walks 10,000 steps a day.. So, you can see how watered down my walking is…  Any more, than that, and my hip begins to bark at me, and my back tightens up… This morning, the Drifters greet me with one of my favorite songs to sing along with: Under The Boardwalk…

Well, yesterday’s talk was all about the stupid CPI report… which… showed that consumer inflation was stronger than expected in Jan… .5% gain for Jan, put the annual increase of inflation at 6.4%…   I told you before that even the great Paul Volcker got fooled by a drop in inflation back in the day, and cut rates, only to have to turn around and hike them again… At least the Fed Heads didn’t get caught up in all the talk by the markets that inflation was weakening, and it was tie for the Fed Heads to pivot…As Volcker learned, the hard way I might add, you won’t defeat inflation until your interest rates are above the rate of inflation… I know, Jerome Powell, the el jefe of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, thinks that he can bring inflation under control by hiking rates to 5.5%, which will still be way below the rate of inflation…  He’ll learn, and hopefully, for our sakes, not the hard way!

So, the markets were dazed and confused by the print yesterday, and took all bets off the table… The dollar only ended down by 1 index point, Gold only gained 70-cents on the day, and Silver fought back to show a better loss on the day of 16-cents (it was down 35-cents to start the day)  The price of Oil gained a buck and ended the day trading with a $79 handle… Bonds were the most heavily traded asset class yesterday, and it looks like the bond boys are looking ahead at the June, FOMC rate hike, as they pushed yields higher on the day, with the 10-year at 3.75% to end the day…

Opposites day was in play yesterday with Gold…  Inflation was higher than expected in January, so Gold should have been bought on that news… But on the other hand, higher inflation might mean much higher interest rates, than previously thought by the markets..  Neither one could outweigh the other once yesterday, and so for all intents and purposes, Gold was flat on the day…

In the overnight markets last night… the dollar buying has gone back to strong dollar buying.. The BBDXY is up 5 index points this morning, the euro has held onto to the 1.07 handle, but the rest of the currencies are looking pretty shaky… Pound sterling has lost ground from 1.22 yesterday to 1.20 today, and the Russian ruble has slid further and trades this morning with a 74 handle…  And Gold & Silver are getting whacked right out of the starter’s blocks this morning… Gold is down $20 in the early trading, and Silver is down 42-cents!  I would have to say that the dollar traders are seeing the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, in a different light these days… 

The price of Oil has slipped a buck and trades with a $78 handle this morning… Oil got a double Whammy yesterday with the stronger inflation, and the news of a release of more Oil reserves…  And bonds keep getting sold… and yields marked up, and in my opinion, it’s about time!

The one currency that has been quite strong, and not getting caught up in the dollar strength, has been the Swiss franc… The franc has enjoyed being out of negative rates territory, and investors and traders seem to like the franc in that new look… Now, as long as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) hikes rates again, at their next meeting, which won’t come about until March… The FOMC won’t meet again until March too, so March could end up being a very bad month for stocks, and bonds…   Who knows about Gold?  It goes up when I think it shouldn’t, and goes down when I think it shouldn’t…

Speaking of the FOMC… I found this on Reuters: “The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least twice more in coming months, with the risk they go higher still, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who see no cut by year-end.”

Chuck again… yes that would put the Fed Funds rate at 5.50% (given 25 Basis Points rate hikes), and while that’s getting back to normal, it will still be below the rate of inflation….  I don’t think I can repeat that enough… I have hopes that someone at the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, reads the Pfennig… For if they do, they should follow my lead on rate decisions… As if!

Haven’t the markets as a whole, become Fed watchers? I’m a Fed Watcher, I’m a Fed Watcher, watching, rates go up, up, up, up… That’s their song, and they’re all singing it from the same song sheet these days… Finally, Jerome Powell’s words have been heeded! 

Debt is a real problem for most of the countries of the world… And with inflation rising all over the world, it’s becoming a real problem for these countries…  The U.S. is the leader of these debt ridden countries, and we have the reserve currency of the world… Aren’t we supposed to be doing better than we are since so many countries use the dollar?   And here in the U.S. we need to issue Treasuries to fund the debt, unfortunately, for the Gov’t, the bond servicing costs (interest payments) is going higher with every day that passes…  Bill Bonner always points out that the Treasuries had the worst year on record , in 2022… the yield on the 10-year went from .625%, to over 4%, settling at 3.75% right now…  As the yield goes higher, in a bond, the bond price goes lower… So, this was over a 300 Basis Points move in yield, so there was no wonder that bonds did very poorly in 2022…

Speaking of the bond servicing costs… this from CNN: “The Treasury Department paid a record $213 billion in interest payments on the national debt in the last quarter of 2022, up $63 billion from the same period a year earlier.

The fourth-quarter tab was also nearly $30 billion more than in the prior quarter, which is the largest quarterly increase on record, said Jerry Dwyer, an economics professor emeritus at Clemson University.”

Chuck again, and those numbers will pale when compared to future costs…  Hello, Mr. Butler? Yes, it’s me, how can I help you? This is the Soc. Security Administration, and we have some bad news for you. You see, the Gov’t can’t pay our your Social Security payment, because our bond servicing costs have taken over all of our tax receipts… And I respond… But, it was MY MONEY! I put that money in there per the requirements through the years, and it was for my golden years! And now you’re telling me that you spend MY MONEY?  You rotten tomatoes, I hope you rot in…  hello operator, Please give me number nine.

And if you disconnect me, I’ll chop of your /&$#%$, Behind the frigerator, There was a piece of glass.

Miss Mary sat upon it. It went right up her…  Ask me no more questions, Please tell me no more lies.

OK, for those of you who are wondering if that really happened… Not it did not, it was just me playing out a future call that could happen, given our soaring bond servicing costs!

I’m afraid that 2022, is just foreplay for 2023…  And bonds will continue to lose money in 2023… I mean, you just read that economists polled called for no rate cut in 2023… And at least two more rate hikes, in 2023… That spells nastiness for bonds, folks… invest wisely… I’m just saying…

But… someone, somewhere, is going to have to step up to the bond auction window, and buy Treasuries when they are auctioned…  I already explained to you about the build up of Treasury issuance while we are in the “alternative measures phase”, and I already explained to you about how the Primary Dealers will be on the hook to buy these bonds, that Russia, China, India, Iran, and others are no longer sopping up at each auction…  But I had forgotten about the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel itself, as buyers of these bonds… Yes, the Fed Heads told us that they were out of the bond buying business, but if push comes to shove will they really be out of the bond buying business?  No, I don’t think so… 

But… if the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel does get back into the bon buying business, that’ll mean the money printing press gets fired up again…  (yes I know there’s no printing press any longer, but for illustration efforts, it paints a great picture!)  And money supply is what got us going down this road to multi-decade highs in inflation…  I’m just saying…

We already talked about the offering in the U.S. Data Cupboard from yesterday… Today’s Data Cupboard has Retail Sales for Jan… You may recall that December Retail Sales were negative?   As I told you yesterday, the BHI indicates that the data will be soft/ disappointing…  Not as disappointing as December’s negative result, but…somewhere in between…

We’’ll also see the color of the Industrial Production report for Jan, along with the Capacity Utilization, both should be better than the December offerings… IP for Dec. was negative -.7%, and Cap U, was flat in December…  Both should be better, and it won’t take us long this morning to see!

To recap… Tuesday ended up being a non-event day… The BBDXY lost just 1 index point, Gold only gained 70-cents, an so on… The stupid CPI was stronger than expected, go figure…  Chuck talked about how Volcker got fooled back in the day, and thought inflation was defeated, only to have to hike rates again… Chuck is concerned about bonds in 2023… and he wonders who will stop the rain?  No Wait! Who will step up to the auction window and buy bonds….

For What It’s Worth…  Well, I’ve got another treat for you this morning… this is a video of an interview with Matthew Piepenburg, of Gold Switzerland…  And I’ve said this before, whenever Matthew writes, talks, etc. I listen… and I think you should too… So, here’s the link to the video: No “North Star” for a Global Economy Drifting in Unsustainable Debt – Matterhorn – GoldSwitzerland

Or, here’s your snippet: “In this latest conversation with Elijah Johnson of Liberty & Finance, Matterhorn Asset Management principal, Matthew Piepenburg, ties together the evolving themes of debt, credit market distress, currency failures and gold pricing.

Looking first at the UST market, Piepenburg argues that Treasuries matter simply because debt matters, and debt, by every metric, has passed the Rubicon of sustainability. The obvious distortions (and recessionary signposts) within the Treasury market are made clear by the inverted yield curve and the recent declines in the USD’s relative strength as measured by the DXY.

Piepenburg maintains that the West’s sanctions against Russia in general, and the US/Fed’s strong USD policy of 2022 in particular, have backfired with staggering panache. The net result has been a clear and steady process of de-dollarization as nations turn away from the USD and the UST for a host of described reasons.

The problem in US debt markets is only compounded by the hard fact that similar weaknesses exist globally. From the EU to Japan, the BRICS to DC, there is no “North Star” nation or economy to pull markets through what is in fact a simultaneous and global debt crisis.

As debt levels and yields rise, the only solution is now a familiar one: Monetizing those debts (and “controlling” those yields/rates) with inflationary mouse-click money from a local central bank. For now, however, the Fed is tightening rather than easing, and Piepenburg explains the ironic (and dis-inflationary) consequences (and eventual pivot) of an increasingly cornered Fed.

Chuck again… The snippet this morning is just a teaser, so you get intrigued and then find the time to watch the video… I strongly suggest you do…

Market Prices 2/15/2023: American Style: A$ .6903, kiwi .6282, C$ .7463, euro 1.0723, sterling 1.2084, Swiss $1.0844, European Style: rand 17.9825, krone 10.1619, SEK 10.3728, forint 353.29, zloty 4.4368, koruna 22.1019, RUB 74.33, yen 133.34, sing 1.3336, HKD 7.8485, INR 82.80, China 6.8379, peso 18.82, BRL 5.1948, BBDXY 1,239.82, Dollar Index 103.52, Oil $78.47, 10-year 3.74%, Silver $21.50, Platinum $928.00, Palladium $1,473.00, Copper $4.02, and Gold… $1,835.06

That’s it for today… Well, my beloved Mizzou  Tigers got run out of the gym at Auburn last night, with the Auburn Tigers not showing any Valentine’s day love for the Mizzou Tigers…  Our Blues won last night 5-2, VS the Panthers… The wins for the Blues have been far and few in between, so this one was a good one… It’s not too late for our Blues to get hot and go on a run toward the playoffs, which they currently are out of playoff contention… Let’s Go Blues!  The sunrise out of the ocean this morning was beautiful! Most days the marine layer of clouds block the sun as it rises out of the ocean, but not this morning! YAHOO!  I actually got a full night’s sleep last night! That happens about as often as a Blue Moon!  And so, I’m rough and ready for today!   Van (the man) Morrison takes us the finish line today with my former colleague, Jen’s song: Brown Eyed Girl…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler