Author: admin

• Dollar stops gaining ground on Monday
• Gold takes off for higher ground this morning!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it’s been a nice time, but it’s time to go, was the statement yesterday… I leave for home tomorrow, it’s been 3-months since I was last at home, so it’ll be a reunion of sorts… I will get a couple of days of quiet when I get home, and then it’ll be Easter, and family will gather… The Babys greet me this morning with their song: Back On My Feet Again…

When that song began to play, this morning, I thought, well, that’s what the dollar bugs must be singing these days… As the dollar has rebounded and brought with it a lot of pain and suffering in the currencies.  Yesterday, there was a chink in the dollar’s armor, albeit a little one… The BBDXY lost 1 index point on the day. Gold gained $3 on the day, to close at $2,171, and Silver was basically flat on the day, and closed at $24.73. 

Gold hasn’t really benefitted, yet, that is, from all the talk of rate cuts… I do believe the benefit will come, sometimes it takes a bit for the ship to change course, and that describes Gold to a T! And the other thing that should be weighing on the dollar, and benefitting Gold, is all this debt in the world, especially in the U.S.!  You know, I head it said once by a trader, that knew the score, he said:” The markets can ignore things (read debt in this case) far longer than anyone can suspect, util one day they don’t ignore them any longer”  

His gist was, “don’t fight the markets”… You see, I’ve not followed that advice very often in my days in the markets… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar saw 2 more index points fall off of its value… Could this be the beginning of an extended trend in selling dollars? I mean the absolute onset of this trend, if it exists, is where we are now!   Gold is up BIG this morning, so maybe the Gold bugs finally saw the light? Gold is up $29 this morning!   The tide is turning, folks… People all over the world, join in, get on the Love Train, Love Train…  Silver is up 8-cents to start the day today… 

The price of Oil remained in the $81 handle overnight, and bonds didn’t move an inch! The 10-year’s yield this morning is 4.23%… 

Well, have I got a doozy for you in the FWIW this morning… It’s former Treasury Sec. Larry Summers, taking a verbal shot at Jerome Powell’s Fed Heads…  You won’t want to have missed that one! 

But don’t go there yet… I’ve got other things to talk about first… Like once again the markets got hype up over a Bank of Japan rate hike, and forgot about the other problems in Japan… Like Debt and demographics… The yen has actually lost ground since the BOJ hiked rates!  YIKES!

And on the other end of the spectrum we find the Swiss franc, floundering and losing ground to the dollar and euro ever since the Bank of Switzerland (BOS) decided to be the first Central Bank to dip its toe in rate cuts… After cutting their official rate the franc has dropped from lofty levels VS the dollar and euro… And with all these geopolitical problems in the world! 

Ahem, Fed Heads… I sure hope you’re watching this goings on in Switzerland, since you seem to be ready and willing to go down the road of rate cuts too… 

And dat Ole digital currency is rounding the corner and heading for home! I found this on theconservativetreehouse.com regarding the digital currency, “”The same way the Patriot Act was not designed to stop terrorism but rather to create a domestic surveillance system. So too were the “Russian Sanctions” not designed to sanction Russia, but rather to create the financial control system that will lead to a USA digital currency. The Western sanctions created a financial wall around the USA (dollar-based west), not to keep Russia out, but to keep us in.  The Western sanction regime, the financial mechanisms they created and authorized, created the control gate that leads to a U.S. digital currency.” 

Well, you can’t say that I didn’t warn you that this was coming… But did you do anything about it? I sure hope so… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the Feb Durable Goods Orders for our review… You may recall that the Jan Durable Goods Orders were a negative 4.2%… So, you would expect in this election year, that the data was massaged and cooked to show a positive number in Feb… I’m just saying…

To recap… The dollar has seen it’s run up halted, but only in small amounts so far, which Chuck asks if this is a the onset of an extended weaker dollar?  Gold was up a bit yesterday, but is soaring this morning in the early trading… Chuck talks about the yen, and francs this morning, and the coming digital currency… 

For What It’s Worth… well, I prebilled this article, and now I hope it lives up to the hype! This is Larry Summers, former Treasury Sec. taking verbal shot at Jerome Powell’s Fed Heads, and it ca be found here: Ex-Treasury Chief Larry Summers Questions Fed’s ‘Hurry’ to Cut Interest Rates – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers criticized the Federal Reserve for continuing to signal that it’s prepared to lower interest rates in coming months, despite a strong economy that’s giving off projections of still-too-high inflation.

“My sense is still that the Fed is itchy fingers to start cutting rates and I don’t fully get it,” Summers said on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin. Given how the economy and financial markets are performing, “I don’t know why we’re in such a hurry to be talking about moving towards the accelerator,” he said.

Summers: Fed Still Has ‘Itchy Fingers’ to Start Cutting Rates

Summers spoke a day after policymakers updated their forecasts for the central bank’s benchmark interest rate, with the median estimate continuing to show three reductions for this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said while “we don’t want to be dismissive” of the faster-than-expected inflation readings for January and February, they “haven’t really changed the overall story” of price pressures gradually diminishing.

A key issue remains that the Fed’s estimate of the neutral policy rate — the setting where it’s neither stoking or slowing the economy — is too low, said Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid contributor to Bloomberg TV. That distortion means that policymakers believe their current setting is more restrictive than it really is, he said.

“If you don’t know what’s neutral, you don’t know how expansionary or restrictive you’re being,” Summers said.”

Chuck again… That’s right Larry! You tell ’em! But like I said wen Jerome Powell mentioned 3 rate cuts… The Gold Bugs love him for that! 

Market Prices 3/26/2024: American Style: A$ .6551, kiwi .6028, C$ .7372, euro 1.0858, sterling 1.2659, Swiss $1.1102, European Style: rand 18.9236, krone 10.7146, SEK 10.5429, forint 365.08, zloty 3.9716, koruna 23.7450, RUB 92.65, yen 151.27, sing 1.3438, HKD 7.8233, INR 83.29, China 7.2183, peso 16.67, BRL 4.9754, BBDXY 1,241.92, Dollar Index 104.01, Oil $81.64, 10-year 4.23%, Silver $24.81, Platinum $909.00, Palladium $1,021.00, Copper $4.02, and Gold… $2,200.20

That’s it for today, and tomorrow… no Pfennig tomorrow… just a friendly spiderman reminder… Our Blues had a chance to get closer to a playoff position last night, and fell on their face.. They did get 1 point for a tie, but lost in overtime. My beloved Cardinals went Arizona to play the Cubs, and actually played a good game in beating their rivals to the North… It’s still spring training, so it really doesn’t mean much… Sniff “n” the Tears take us to the finish line today with their song: Driver’s Seat… if you want I’ll take you on a sidebar here and tell you about the band…  Quite a few years ago, I wrote about Driver’s Seat being the song of the day, and I received an email from the bass player of the band! Pretty cool I must say!  Ok, I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals get sold late last week
• What’s going on in China with the renminbi?

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, week one of the NCAA Basketball Tournament in the books and 64 teams is now the Sweet 16… How’d you do? I can tell you that Kentucky caused major problems for my bracket! Tsk! My beloved Cardinals left Florida over the weekend and headed west to play in Arizona ahead of the start of the season in L.A. Daughter Dawn and her family left on Saturday, and to replace them Kathy’s sister, and mom replaced them… Stevie Wonder greets me this morning with his song: My Cherie Amour… 

Well, the dollar is kicking tail and taking names later these days… Shoot Rudy, it was up 9 index points last Thursday! The currencies are hanging by the thread of their teeth, to any values… And Gold is taking it on the chin too… After reaching $2,258.00 earlier last week, its’ been called a “correction” in Gold… I say, it’s been the short paper traders taking their liberties with Gold & Silver…  On Thursday, last week, Gold gained $16, and then the trap door was sprung. Gold ended the week at $2,164.00… Silver ended the week at $24.63… 

The price of Oil ended the week trading with an $80 handle… After rising up to $82 earlier last week, the price of Oil saw some profit taking in Oil contracts. And Bonds kept getting bought, again… The 10-year’s yield ended the week at 4.20%

In the overnight markets last night… There was a little slippage in the dollar’s momentum as the BBDXY lost 2 index points, and sits at 1,244 to start the day and week today. Gold is up $4 in the early trading today, and Silver is up 12-cents to start the day/ week. Must be plain profit taking in dollar contracts overnight to stop the dollar’s run. Those don’t last, usually, and we go back to what the underlying trend was without delay. 

The price of Oil bumped up 50-cents overnight, but that brought the price of Oil’s handle to over $81 to start the day/ week today. And bonds saw some slippage overnight, with the 10-year’s yield rising to 4.23% to start the day/ week. See below for a comment from Lola regarding commodities, to get a picture of where the price of Oil is going this year… 

Oh, my goodness, dear Lord, please help us… Congressional lawmakers have avoided a partial government shutdown after passing a $1.2T package of six spending bills to fund a group of federal agencies through the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30.  And guess who got the majority of the funding? That’s right, defense got 70% of the $1.2 Trillion… So, the leaders of the  defense companies, called their wives and told them to get the red dress out, and high heeled sneakers, for they were going out on the town! I shake my head in disbelief that we continue to go down the path of a failed Empire… 

My good friend Rick B. sent me an email on Saturday, and said, “this might  get you fuming”, and he was right! The article was some uneducated person on the subject… This fellow said that Gold was NOT a “Store of Value”… Wait, What? I couldn’t believe my eye, of what I was reading…  And I responded to Rick that “What a bunch of crap! Gold has always been a store f wealth and will always be!”  So, Rick was right, I was fuming after reading it! 

Central Banks around the world, sans the Federal Reserve, are building their reserves with physical Gold, they aren’t just doing that for the fun of it… They are doing it, because they need stores of value, and they are ridding themselves of dollars, because 1. they see the writing on the wall for the dollar, and 2. they saw how the U.S. froze Russia’s assets in the U.S., and they keep telling themselves that the U.S. could do that to them too, so why not exchange their dollar reserves for Gold, and store it themselves so that the U.S. never can get their hands in the cookie jar! 

And furthermore with regards to Gold… Sponsored by Rep. Ken Ivory, House Bill 348 permits the Treasurer to hold up to 10% of certain state reserve accounts in precious metals to help secure state assets against the risks of inflation and financial turmoil and/or to achieve capital gains as measured in Federal Reserve Notes.

So, states are changing their respective state laws to include Gold & Silver, and also to remove taxation of the metals in sales… 

I’ve seen some reports calling for Gold to reach $2,300 this year, especially easily gained if the Fed Heads do cut interest rates 3 times in 2024…. 

Leaving metals for now… The Aussie dollar (A$) has run into a lot of short selling lately, after reaching .66-cents early last week. The short sales are building because of China’s problems, being that if China slows down, then vis-a-vi Aussie raw material  shipments to China would slow down, thus slowing the Aussie economy… And most likely pushing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut rates before they really wanted to… 

The European Central Bank (ECB ) left rates unchanged at their last meeting, and that helped the euro keep its head above the 1.08 level, ending last week at 1.0808… With all this dollar strength going on now, it is interesting to see the euro hold on to its level of 1.08… this after hitting 1.09 early last week… Like I always point out is that the euro is the offset currency to the dollar… So, dollar strength equals euro weakness, and vice versa…  the investopedia.com description of dollar strength is when interest rates are rising…   

Hmmm… well, interest rates are no longer rising, and the thoughts in the markets right now is that interest rates will be reduced this year… So, if investopedia.com is correct, then the dollar doesn’t have a leg to stand on, and all this dollar strength is fabricated… I’m just saying… 

And I guess I had better talk about the weakness in the Chinese renminbi… You see, the Chinese have been doing this currency thing for longer than any other country, and they have figured out that when the economy weakens, they need to do something to simulate the economy, and in an export driven economy, the way to do that is to weaken the currency, thus making its exports cheaper, and easier to sell…  So, for now, the renminbi is weaker… it remains to be seen whether or not it remains that way for very long… 

And before we go to the Big Finish today, I have this little ditty from Bloomberg.com regarding what Lola wants… here it is: “Commodities will advance this year as central banks in the US and Europe move to reduce interest rates, helping to support industrial and consumer demand, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Raw materials may return 15% over 2024 as borrowing costs come down, manufacturing recovers, and geopolitical risks persist.”

Chuck again… I’ve explained this Lola thing many times, but I haven’t for awhile now, so here goes: I call Goldman Sachs, Lola… You know what Lola wants, Lola gets? So, when Lola says that “commodities will advance this year”, that means that commodities WILL advance this year!  No two ways about it, folks… So, back up the truck… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week saw the first positive (.1%) print in the Leading Indicators (for Feb) in over a year and a half… Last week’s Data Cupboard was lacking quite a bit, and this week’s Data Cupboard isn’t that much of an improvement but it does had more on the docket than last week… 

To recap… It was all dollar buying to end the week last week… On Thursday the BBDXY gained 9 index points! Why is this going on now, after the chief Fed Head said last week he’s looking to cut rates 3 times this year, so what gives? Chuck does a lot of talk about Gold today, so hopefully you didn’t skip over that… 

For What It’s Worth… Jan Nieuwenhuijs is someone that I trust when it comes to what he says about Gold… And so this is an article he wrote for his new firm about Gold pricing and it can be found here: China Has Taken Over Gold Price Control from the West (gainesvillecoins.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Exceptional strong gold demand from both the Chinese central bank and private sector has been driving up the gold price over the past two years, by which they have taken over control over the gold price from the West. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) bought a record 735 tonnes of gold in 2023, of which about two thirds were purchased covertly. In addition, the private sector net imported 1,411 tonnes in 2023, and a whopping 228 tonnes just in January of 2024. If the West joins the Chinese gold buying craze, in fear of rate cuts and currency debasement, it will be a perfect storm for gold.

As most readers will be aware of by now, since the war in Ukraine, which led Western authorities to freeze dollar assets of the Russian central bank, estimated gold purchases by central banks as disclosed by the World Gold Council (WGC) have exploded. Covert PBoC gold purchases can be computed by comparing the WGC’s data with what is officially reported by central banks.

The difference between WGC’s estimated buying and reported buying, arising from the fact that the WGC’s numbers are based on field research, is “largely” created by the PBoC, two industry insiders shared with me.

To compute what the PBoC secretly acquires every quarter I take eighty percent of total unreported purchases. Then, I add what the Chinese central bank reports to have bought. In total, over 2023, the PBoC bought a record 735 tonnes, up 23% from the previous record in 2022 at 597 tonnes.

My estimate is that the PBoC now holds 5,358 tonnes, which is 3,108 tonnes north of what’s officially disclosed at 2,250 tonnes.”

Chinese massive gold buying over the past two years have fundamentally changed the gold market. Whereas before 2022 Western institutional supply and demand was driving the price of gold and the price was more or less stuck to the “real yield” (10-year US TIPS interest rate), ever since the war gold has been less sensitive to real yields and follows its own path. This divergence, according to my analysis, has been created by China that has become one of the main driving forces of the gold price.”

Chuck again… I thank the good folks at GATA for sending me this article… 

Market Prices 3/25/2024: American Style: A$ .6530, kiwi .6005, C$ .7356, euro 1.0816, sterling 1.2621, Swiss $1.1155, European Style: rand 18.9557, krone 10.7380, SEK 10.5855, forint 366.92, zloty 3.9836, koruna 23.3788, RUB 92.81, yen 151.30, sing 1.3459, HKD 7.8215, INR 83.42, China 7.2135, peso 16.75, BRL 5.0012, BBDXY 1,244.44, Dollar Index 104.34, Oil $81.13, 10-year 4.23%, Silver $24.75, Platinum $917.00, Palladium $1,031.00, Copper $4.01, and Gold… $2,168.90

That’s it for today… Well, on Wednesday this week, there will be no Pfennig, as it will be a travel day for me, closing up the place here, and getting it ready for our next visit. I’ll be back from my writing desk at home on Thursday… It was a good winter being down here… Not a great one like it usually is, but good… I’m really not ready to go home yet, but with Easter coming this next weekend, it’s time to go… The Jefferson Starship takes us to the finish line today with their song: With Your Love…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and I hope you’ll Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals fall to the dollar’s pressure…
• The stupid things that people do…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my stomach would not give me any relief yesterday, and I sat through the ballgame, with stomach pains, left the game early, which is not on my agenda, and came home and went to sleep… Woke up about 9pm last night… UGH! But… After eating some chicken noodle soup, I felt much better, stomach pains were gone, and all was well again… Whew! Procol Harum greets me this morning with their song: Conquistador…

So, we’re back to the markets buying dollars, eh? Why? Because the wholesale inflation (PPI), was stronger than expected, thus leading traders to believe that the Fed Heads just might hike rates instead of cutting them…  Now, logically thinking, is what I do here… One would think that these traders just might want to wait until the FOMC meets tomorrow, and discusses rates before they make moves?   But NOOOOOOO! So, the dollar is back en vogue, and you don’t want to step in front of a moving bus here, so…. 

We need to batten down the hatches once again… The dollar gained 3 index points in the BBDXY yesterday, and the currencies took one to the mid-section… Gold lost $3 on the day, and closed at $2,157.59, and Silver lost 16-cents to close at $24.99… What happened to all that Gold euphoria that was taking place early last week? The threat of higher rates here in the U.S. has Gold reeling right now… 

The price of Oil remained trading in the $82 handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury also remained in the previous day’s clothes, with a 4.30% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night… the markets bought more dollars, and the dollar bugs are dancing in the streets this morning… The BBDXY gained 3 more index points overnight, the euro seems to be resisting the pressure to drop in price more… But the rest of the currencies are not in good health this morning. Like I said yesterday, it’s time to batten down the hatches, until we hear what the Fed Heads have to say later today… 

Gold is down $5 to start the day today, and Silver is down 14-cents. The price of Oil slipped below the $81 handle overnight, and the 10-year saw some buying and its yield fall to 4.28%…  All four of three of those asset classes, are dependent on what the Fed Heads do and say today… 

Yes, it’s a FOMC Day… The day, that a few months ago, was being pegged by the bond boys, and economists as the day the first rate cut would happen… A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then, and now those that were pegging that rate cut have gone back under the rocks they live under… So… What will the Fed Heads tell us this afternoon?  Well, I have my opinion, which is about as worthy as a pay toilet in a diarrhea ward! But here goes… I believe the Fed Heads to be torn between two lovers, once again… Should they tell the truth and say that rates aren’t going anywhere, and if inflation should go higher they would look to hike rates, or… do they lie to us like they usually do, and tell us that inflation is under control, and they are looking at a rate cut later this year? 

It’s one or the other here folks… It would be nice for the Fed Heads to fess up, and tell us the truth, and not sugar coat it… 

Good friend, Dennis Miller of www.milleronthemoney.com, sent me this, and it had me scratching my bald head… So, leave it to the lawmakers in California, the land of nuts, to make stupid laws… This time, it was how electric bills will be distributed… California’s new law will tie electricity charges to household income. Lawmakers believe this will alleviate the financial burden on lower-income families while asking wealthier residents to contribute more.

Well, if you ask me, I would think that it just might spur more Californians to move from the state.. And if enough of these higher income folks leave the state, where does that leave the State’s electricity income? 

The stupid things that people do these days, right? I sit here and scratch my bald head, and think… “What stupid thing are they doing now?”

Like our lawmakers, and here’s where I turn to Bill Boner for his thoughts on this next subject: “One of the funniest things to happen last week was that the free thinkers in Congress voted overwhelmingly to ban TikTok. One of the reasons given was that lawmakers thought the app was ‘dumbing down America’s youth.’

Really? Not Facebook. Not the New York Times. Not Paul Krugman. Not Morning Joe. Not the US Congress. Not the public schools. Not the parents who let their children waste their time with electronic gadgets. Neither Biden nor Trump. Nope. ” – Bill Bonner from his newsletter: bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com    

Well, with all this dollar strength going on right now, even the change of interest rate policy in Japan, hasn’t helped the yen, yet… In fact, the yen has lost ground since the first rate hike announcement in 17-years!  Remember how I told you that this would be HUGE for Japan? Well, it’s still HUGE, but I guess the other problems in Japan are bigger than a rate hike… Like I’ve always said, “Japan is a basket case”… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, this is a little offbeat this morning, but that’s what the FWIW is all about… This article talks about how the Great Resignation isn’t quite over, and it can be found here: Workers are still quitting their jobs in droves in these industries (usatoday.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Great Resignation has fizzled out.

But in some industries – like personal care services and trucking – workers are still quitting jobs in large numbers compared to before the pandemic, typically to take higher-paying positions.

The widespread job-switching in some fields is noteworthy because those struggling with high turnover generally are doling out bigger pay increases, both to hire the job-hoppers and to hold on to existing employees. Yet in other industries – like retail and professional services – quitting has dipped below pre-pandemic levels as wage hikes have moderated in a sign of a cooling job market and economic uncertainty.

“The Great Resignation has come and gone” but quitting “varies across industries,” says economist Justin Begley of Moody’s Analytics, an economic research firm.

Broadly, so-called quits rates have been “higher in in-person sectors where workers have been in short supply” since the pandemic, says Julia Pollak, chief economist of ZipRecruiter, a job search site.”

Chuck again… Ok, so if the Great Resignation is over, then why are restaurants, bars, etc. still having problems getting people to come back to work? My local place here in Juno Beach Florida, doesn’t open their back bar until the weekends… It used to be a hopping place all the time! But if the locals know it’s closed during the week, they go somewhere else! 

Market Prices 3/20/2024: American Style: A$ .6578, kiwi .6031, C$ .7354, euro 1.0843, sterling 1.2595, Swiss $1.1225, European Style: rand 18.9079, krone 10.6891, SEK 10.4936, forint 364.92, zloty 3.9892, koruna 23.2298, RUB 92.70, yen 151.67, sing 1.3441, HKD 7.8235, INR 83.17, China 7.1983, peso 16.83, BRL 5.0308, Dollar Index 104.09, Oil $81.86, 10-year 4.28%, Silver $24.85, Platinum $894.00, Palladium $984.00, Copper $4.04, and Gold… $2,152.42

That’s it for today… Well, so far this morning, all is good with me… Thank goodness! Tomorrow, will be the 2^nd to last spring game, with no game on Friday for me… I prefer the team always plays on 3/22, so I can spend my birthday at the ballpark, but that’s not to be this year… UGH! And yes, this year, will mark the 17^th year, I’ve had to deal with cancer, and health problems… I’m so glad that, so far, I’ve dealt with them pretty good, so that no one knows if I’m ailing or not… I hope that continues! Dire Straits take us to the finish line today, with their song: Brothers In Arms… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies and metals get sold on Monday and overnight
• Growing closer to that moment…

Good Day… And A Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! well, I had an awful day yesterday with my stomach… Apparently, my chemo doesn’t like corned beef and cabbage… I’ve had days like this many times in the past, and usually I bounce back the next day, which would be a good thing for me, since today is another ballgame… I’m of the opinion, that this chemo that I’m talking, isn’t really doing anything for me, except make me sick… But that’s an issue I’ll take up with my oncologist upon my return to St. Louis in a couple of weeks. Al Stewart greets me this morning with his song: Year of the Cat… 

Well, the dollar started the week, yesterday with a small rally… The BBDXY was up 2 index points, and pushed the euro further away from the 1.09 handle. But for the rest of the currencies they look about the same today as they did yesterday. Gold was basically unchanged after starting the day up it gave way to the short paper traders, and ended up only 10-cents… Silver turned its red number in the early trading to a gain of 5-cents… Gold closed at $2,160.80, and Silver closed at $25.15… 

I read a piece yesterday that had a major bullion dealer calling for a Gold rally in 2024, and seeing it run up to $2,500… This wouldn’t happen to be the same major bullion dealer that leads the league in short paper trading would it? Why yes, it is! So, either, they plan to drop the short paper trading the rest of the year, or that they are long a bunch of Gold and need to sell it, because deposit drop off is accumulating…  I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil bumped up another buck to end the day yesterday with an $82 handle… And bonds kept getting sold with the 10-year’s yield rising to 4.32% on the day… 

In the overnight markets last night…Well, I guess the fix is in… I say that because the dollar stormed through the overnight session last night, gaining 5 index points in the BBDXY. The currencies all look as though they were sent to the sick bed again, and even the Mexican peso took a loss overnight. Gold is getting sold to the tune of $6 of loss this morning, and Silver has given up 22-cents in the early trading today… It’s all about the dollar this morning, as we get nearer to the time tomorrow when the FOMC announces their rate decision, which by now is in the cards… no rate movement, and the Fed Heads will be watching inflation closely in case they need to hike rates… IF Jerome Powell does say that tomorrow, one would think that the cow would be out of the barn… Katy bar the door, and all those other adages… The dollar will once again be the cat’s meow with investors, traders, hedge fund manager, and the rest of the lot. 

The price of Oil remained trading with an $82 handle overnight, and bonds hardly moved from their close yesterday… 

Well, all the reports that China’s economy is dying a quick death are being proven to be false dawns… China had some better than the average bear economic reports over the last weekend… It was reported that:  China’s factory output and retail sales beat expectations in the January-February period, marking a solid start for 2024 and offering some relief to policymakers even as weakness in the property sector remains a drag on the economy and confidence.

Ok, in the U.K. this week, the Bank of England will meet to discuss rates… This snippet is from Bloomberg.com: “Investor bets on pound gains are at the highest level for 17 years, leaving the currency at risk of a pullback if the Bank of England joins peers in signaling rate cuts this week.”

So, what will the BOE do this week with rates? Inflation in the U.K. is falling fast, and the BOE might feel as though they’ve defeated inflation … and signal a rate cut coming soon but… I think they would be making a mistake, an error, a boo-boo, a stupid move! 

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB ) left rates unchanged, and I would hope the BOE would follow suit… 

In Russia, Mr. Putin won another term…He received 87% of the vote… Can you say landslide? The question I had was who was so bold to vote for a different candidate other than Putin? Never mind, I don’t want to know, or point them out, for they could be taking their own existence into question… 

Do you recall early last week when I talked about the drone attacks on the Russian refinery and said that it should be a boost to the price of Oil? Well, since then there have been further attacks, and the price of Oil has bumped higher by $5 since then…  I love it when a plan comes together! 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will meet tonight for us, and it is highly expected that the central bank will end their experiment with negative rates… This could be HUGE for yen, and Gov’t bond yields… So, don’t take this meeting lightly, it could bring about a change for Japanese yen and Gov’t bonds that affect all investors…  No, wait! the BOJ met last night! And hiked rates for the first time in 17 years!  At first, the investors and traders reaction to this news, that was highly anticipated, was  akin to waiting so long to meet Santa Claus, when you’re already an adult…  I doubt this will continue… 

The largest wage increases in 3 decades was the fuel to fan the inflation fire in Japan, if the BOJ didn’t end negative rates… I would have expected the Santa Claus meeting… You would think that they saw what happened in the U.S. when the Fed Heads left rates too low, for too darn long…  Maybe, just maybe they saw it… 

And here in the U.S. the Fed’s FOMC will meet on Wednesday and decide what to do with rates… I told you yesterday what I thought would happen, so you’ll have to go back and read that again if you’ve forgotten or if you missed class yesterday… 

So, did you fill out your NCAA Tournament bracket? I did two of them, and I doubt I come anywhere close to getting anything correct, I never do… But to worry about it would defeat the fun of filling them out, and acting like you know what you’re doing! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has some more housing stuff, but in reality, housing isn’t moving the markets these days, so we move along for these are not the droids we’re looking for… 

To recap… We started the week yesterday with the dollar rebounding, and gaining 2 index points in the BBDXY. There are a couple of Central Bank meetings this week that could move the currencies associated with the Central Bank… And the reports of China’s death have been greatly exaggerated! 

For What It’s Worth…  I’ve been reading about the Gold beans that have become quite popular in China, and thinking, now that’s something that we should be selling here in the U.S.  the article can be found here: Gold beans all the rage with China’s Gen Z as deflation bites | The Straits Times

Or, here’s your snippet: “With China’s deflation at its worst in 15 years, a volatile stock market and bank interest rates too low for her liking, 18-year-old Tina Hong is placing her financial security in gold beans.

Weighing as little as one gram each, the beans – and other forms of gold jewelry – are increasingly viewed as the safest investment bet for young Chinese in an era of economic uncertainty. It is part of a larger consumer trend for all things gold – from bullion to beans and bracelets – that has gripped the mainland.

“It’s basically impossible to lose money from buying gold,” reasoned Ms Hong, a college freshman studying computer science in Fujian province.

In January, she began buying gold beans because of their relatively low cost of about 600 yuan (S$113) per gram. She has more than two grams of the beans and will continue buying them as long as costs are lower than international gold prices, she said.

Branded as an investment entry point for young consumers, the beans, which come in glass jars, are the latest hot-selling items in Chinese jewellery stores. Generation Z consumers – buffeted by high youth unemployment and the nation’s slide into deflation – are now among the top consumers of gold accessories in the world’s second-largest economy, according to the 2023 China Jewellery Consumer Trends Report by Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group.

Young people are skipping “pleasurable consumption” and instead purchasing “asset-style jewellery” such as gold beans for adornment and investments, said Mr. Nikos Kavalis, managing director at the London-based consultancy Metals Focus Ltd.

Chuck again…like I said above, this is something that should be sold here in the U.S., for all the time all I hear from youngsters is that Gold is too expensive to buy… And that what are they going to do if the financial system faulters, they can’t go to the store with a 1 oz Gold coin and by a loaf of bread?…  Well, this kills two birds with one stone…  

Market Prices 3/19/ 2024: American Style: A$.6511, kiwi .6044, C$ .7367, euro 1.0844, sterling 1.2682, Swiss $1.1243, European Style: rand 18.9958, krone 10.7011, SEK 10.4815, forint 364.84, zloty 3.9864, koruna 23.2691, RUB 92.50, yen 150.54, sing 1.3427, HKD 7.8221, INR 83.04, China 7.1993, peso 16.90, BRL 5.0253, BBDXY 1,242.24, Dollar Index 103.96, Oil $82.03, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $24.93, Platinum $903.00, Palladium $1,000.00, Copper $4.09, and Gold…. $2,154.09

That’s it for today… Well, our Blues won again on Sunday night, maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, the Blues are going to go on a run before the playoffs begin… (I sure hope I haven’t jinxed them with that!) The Blues get back on home ice tonight VS the Avalanche… It’s been fun having my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace, and her brother Everett, with us this week… I say things to Delaney Grace and she rolls her eyes at me… The other day, she was sad about something, and I asked here if she missed her boyfriend… She quickly informed me that she had no such thing! See, isn’t it fun having an old guy like me to ask questions? My second fave Chicago Song takes us to the finish line today with their song: Beginnings…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals get sold late last week
• Revisions and lies… they go together…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals pulled a victory out of the depths of defeat yesterday, as a kid without his name on his jersey, came up in the 8^th inning, with the bases loaded, and hit a grand slam! WOW! We’ve seen ties, and losses, but not too many victories this spring, not that it matters… It was a hot one, like seven inches from the midday sun, yesterday in my seats… but I endured, and stayed to see the grand slam! Alice In Chains greets me this morning with their song: Down In A Hole…

Just about every time I think the dollar is in trouble, it pulls a rabbit out of its hat, and rallies… This time it was all about how the latest PPI (wholesale inflation) was so strong that it got people thinking that the Fed Heads could be hiking rates soon, instead of cutting them…  Bonds got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair, currencies got sold, Gold got sold, Silver got sold, and the dollar rallied… 

The BBDXY gained 5 index points on Friday, and finished the week at 1,233, after starting last week at 1,228… And then stayed around 1,228 Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, before rallying on Friday. The euro lost its hold on the 1.09 handle, and the rest of the currencies are back to looking like they need to be the sick bay… 

Gold began the week, last, at 1,229, and ended the week at 1,255… And this was after getting sold on Thursday and Friday! Silver began the week at $24.34, and ended the week at $24.75 after also getting sold on Thursday and Friday… 

The price of Oil bumped higher on Thursday, and then remained above the $80 handle on Friday… And the 10-year saw its yield rise to 4.30% after starting the week at 4.08%… 

It appears that the shortages that I’ve talked about previously in Copper are finally showing up in the price of the metal.. Copper this morning is $4.12, kicking tail and taking names later! 

In the overnight markets last night…. There was little to no movement in the dollar, and the BBDXY starts the week at 1,235… Gold is up $1 in the early trading, and Silver is down 8-cents… The euro is knocking on the door of 1.09 once again, and that ole Mexican peso continues to be the shining light for the currencies, and I can’t believe I just wrote that! The price of Oil has bumped higher again and starts the week with an $81 handle. 

So, we start the week with the dollar drifting, Gold looking like it wants to rally again, Oil perking up, and the 10-year Treasury getting sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair! 

Well, the BIG Thing on the Data Cupboard’s calendar for this week is the March FOMC rate discussion meeting that will be held on Wednesday this week. By now, I doubt there’s even one remaining doubting Thomas that the Fed Heads can’t stand still with rates… But you never know… eh?

The good Folks at GATA sent me this note the other day: “At King World News, GoldMoney founder James Turk remarks on the decline of gold holdings claimed by major exchange-traded funds despite the upward trend of the gold price.

Turk writes: “There are so many loopholes in the prospectus of some of the gold ETFs, it has been my contention that they are used by central banks and their bullion bank agents to control the gold price. Their aim is to make fiat currency look better than it deserves by killing the canary in the coal mine, which is the role of an unfettered gold market.”

I agree with James Turk… I have said for a very long time now that I wouldn’t trust those Trust Companies to actually have the correct amount of Gold in their vaults to cover all the ETF positions…  And since there’s no audit of them, we are left to pick up the pieces and make out what we think is actually happening there… 

Ok, moving on… Last week there were more stringent sanctions placed on Russia from the U.S…. So far, nothing’s worked… so why keep trying? All it does is push Russia and China together more… Right now, Nearly all Russia-China trade is now in yuan and rubles. As much as Russian trade with the EU fell by 68% in 2023, trade with Asia rose by 5.6% – with new landmarks reached with China ($240 billion) and India ($65 billion) – and 84% of Russia’s total energy exports going to “friendly countries”.”

But you can’t tell the Gov’t anything that they don’t want to hear… You could be in for a real long trip down a country road… But here goes: Sanctions don’t work! 

Silver has really enjoyed a renaissance with investors, and continues to outperform Gold on a percentage basis… And last week I read where manufacturers that require silver are already bypassing bullion bank brokers and purchasing metal directly from mines.  I like that… what they are saying to the bullion banks that keep shorting Silver, is to hello operator give me number nine, with you… 

Well, maybe this week we can get back to the dollar being sold, and the metals enjoying the limelight…  

Well, The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week was interesting… First, Retail Sales weren’t as strong as expected, but still stronger than the average bear, as the BHI forecast. The other piece of data on that day, was the PPI, the wholesale inflation rate, and it was much stronger than expected, at .6%… I hate to tell you this, but that data indicates that inflation is going to be higher in the future… And that news alone got the rate hike enthusiasts all lathered up, and that wasn’t good for Gold… 

Then on Friday, Industrial Production for Feb, along with Capacity Utilization, and both were not items to talk about around the water cooler…  IP was up just .1%, following a neg report in Jan. I just don’t get where people in the Gov’t keep telling us the economy is going great guns!  

And here’s Zerohedge.com with something on the IP Print: “Another day, another downwardly revised dataset…

In today’s episode of ‘sh*t you believed in the past is not real at all’, U.S. Industrial Production in January was revised from a 0.1% decline to 0.5% decline. That is the 10th monthly revision lower in the last 11 months (and 14th of the last 17)…

Industrial Production rose 0.1% MoM in February (from that revised lower print), leaving the YoY change in IP at -0.23%…

On the pure manufacturing side, production rose 0.8% MoM, but that – again – was from a big downwardly revised January (from -0.5% MoM to -1.1% MoM)…

Just another endless stream of downward revisions…”

Chuck again… I keep harping about these downward revisions that come months after the markets hoop and holler about the first print… 

This week’s Data Cupboard is pretty void of real economic data… We’ll get some housing data today and tomorrow, but then on Wednesday we get what the markets have been waiting for… The March FOMC… rate decision meeting… Well, for my money, I say that the Fed Heads will keep rates unchanged, and begin to talk about how inflation isn’t going away, and how they will have to keep rates at current levels longer… 

To recap… the dollar turned around late last week, and instead of being on the tender hooks, it rallied… This time it was the stronger then the man of steel, Producer Price Index (wholesale inflation), which as we know will filter through to consumer inflation eventually, and that led those rate hike enthusiasts to believe rates will be raised instead of lowered soon… Overnight, the dollar didn’t move much, and so we start our week with the BBDXY at 1,235… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, Mom… They’re doing it again! Who darling? Those wild and crazy guys at JPMorgan… There’re in trouble again and that skinny can be found here: JPMorgan Fined $348 Million For Failing To Monitor “Billions” In Trades | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: ” JPMorgan Chase, has just added another notch to its criminal track record when it was fined $348.2 million by a pair of US bank regulators over its inadequate program to monitor firm and client trading activities for market misconduct, the Federal Reserve announced on Thursday.

The Fed fined the bank alongside the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and said the misconduct occurred between 2014 and 2023. JPMorgan disclosed in February that it expected to pay roughly $350 million in civil penalties for reporting incomplete trading data to surveillance platforms. It said at the time it was also in “advanced negotiations” with a third regulator that may not result in resolution. The penalty consisted of $250 million from the Office of the Comptroller and $98 million from the Federal Reserve.

In a separate announcement, the OCC said JPMorgan failed to properly monitor “billions” of trades across at least 30 global trading venues.  It ordered the bank to overhaul and improve its trade surveillance program and conduct a third-party review of its policies. The bank must clear any new trading venues with regulators under the new order.

“The consequences of these deficiencies include the bank’s failure to surveil billions of instances of trading activity on at least 30 global trading venues,” the OCC said in its consent order. The bank neither admitted nor denied the OCC’s findings.”

Chuck again… Eventually, someone has got to say, “no mas” to Jamie Dimon and JPMorgan’s illegal tricks of the trade…  I’m just saying…

Market Prices 3/18/2024: American Style: A$.6568, kiwi .6083, C$ .7384, euro 1.0899, sterling 1.2733, European Style: rand 18.8322, krone 10.5827, SEK 10.3834, forint 361.78, zloty 3.9570, koruna 23.0926, RUB 91.87, yen 149.18, sing 1.3379, HKD 7.8196, INR 82.91, China 7.1981, peso 16.71, BRL 4.9959, BBDXY 1,235.41, Dollar Index 103.41, Oil $81.18, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $25.10, Platinum $921.00, Palladium $1,067, Copper $4.12, and Gold… $2,156.78

That’s it for today… Yesterday was St. Patrick’s Day, I hope you all celebrated safely… I felt strange going to the ballgame yesterday wearing a St. Pat’s shirt, and green Cardinals ballcap… But, it was St. Pat’s Day, and me being me, I had to celebrate it! Today is the Birthday of a good friend, Pete Landers… Happy Birthday Pete! My birthday will come at the end of this week, and I will be forever thankful that I get to celebrate another one! My current Chemo is really taking a toll on me, although I try to remain good to go! Wild Cherry takes us to the finish line today with their one hit wonder song: Play That Funky Music… That one will get you dancing in your chair! I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and will please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar drifts after the STUPID CPI print
• The bond boys are scratching their collective heads…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Another beautiful day down here in paradise… I spent most of the day outside, enjoying the vitamin D… In the afternoon, we took a short trip to visit some friends who used to stay at our condo building, but now stay somewhere else. And when we got there, we got a HUGE surprise! We go a personal tour of a yacht that was in the marina, that belonged to the brother of our friend… What a trip! As I told Kathy as we exited the yacht… This proves that there’s always someone else with more money than you…   The Rascals greet me this morning with their song: Beautiful Morning…

Well, the selling of the dollar ended yesterday, but not like it was a total reversal of the current trend.  One thing I used to remind everyone all the time, is that you must always remember is that a Trend is not a One-Way Street. There’s always days when the trend seems to be over, but then it comes right back…  The BBDXY gained 1 index point yesterday. But, the euro climbed above 1.08 on the day…  

Gold lost a lot of ground yesterday, and all that I could find on it was that there was profit taking, and that some Gold buyers had cooled their feet on the stronger than expected STUPID CPI… And that’s all fine and good, but… Gold lost $24 yesterday, and that leads me to believe that the short paper traders were piling on again…  I know how Gold feels when the short paper traders pile on… One time when I played H.S. football, I tacked a runner near the opposing sideline, and the ball came loose… and suddenly, I was piled on by what seemed like the whole team… There’s nothing you can do, so you just lay there until they all get off of you… And there’s nothing Gold holders can do when the short paper traders pile on, but to wait until they’ve all gone home, and leave Gold alone… 

Silver also lost ground yesterday this time being by 14-cents… Gold closed at $2,158.10, and Silver closed at $24.18… The price of Oil remained in the $78 handle, and the bond buying stopped with the 10-year adding on to its yield, pushing it higher to 4.14%… 

So, instead of waiting until later in the letter today, I thought I would address what caused all this selling yesterday of the currencies & metals, and the buying of bonds… It was the STUPID CPI! This from MarketWatch: “Consumer prices matched the biggest increase in February in five months, leaving the yearly rate of inflation above 3% a week before the Federal Reserve meets again to consider when to cut interest rates.

The consumer price index climbed 0.4% last month, the government said, largely because of higher gas prices and housing costs.

It was the largest increase since last September.

The rate of increase in the last 12 months in the CPI, the nation’s most best-known price gauge, edged up to 3.2% from 3.1%.”

Chuck again… well, John Williams at www.shadowstats.com, shows that inflation is really 7.9%… So, the markets can react like they do, when the STUPID CPI prints, but we all know, what’s really going on and that is that inflation is sticky, and will continue to be sticky! 

In the overnight markets last night…There was no movement in the dollar, and the currencies look very much like they did when we closed the U.S. session yesterday, having taken on the brunt of anti-sentiment from traders swayed by the STUPID CPI… The euro took a bold move yesterday, and I’ll discuss that in a minute…  

The price of Oil remains in the $78 handle this morning, and bonds continue to reverse all the gains it made in the last week when it looked as though a rate hike by the Fed Heads was a done deal…  I’m surprised that the price of Oil didn’t react to the news that a Russian Refinery was on fire from a drone attack…  Usually news like that gets the boys all lathered up thinking that the supplies of Oil will be cut down… Maybe it will be a delayed reaction? 

Well, late last week in the FWIW I had an article about how the euro was picking up steam. And lookie there! The euro had range traded for a couple of week in the 1.08 handle, and suddenly yesterday it moved higher in the the 1.09 handle…  (Look, I know that sounds like pennies in gains especially when compared to the $70,000 price of that ponzi scheme Bitcoin) But… There are millions of dollars in currency transactions each and every day, and most of those trades are very large trades, so pennies on them mean something! 

Ok, have you heard about the NY Times (NYT) writer that focused on Financial matters for a very long time now, did a mea culpa to NYT readers about his description that he has used a long time, for Bank Capital Requirements?  

This all came to light when there are calls for the largest banks to received higher bank capital requirements…  Here’s Russ & Pam Martens’ take on this mea culpa: “Let this settle in for a few moments. A New York Times financial writer who has been opining on financial matters as co-host of CNBC’s Squawk Box since 2011 and wrote a bestseller book on what caused the banking crash of 2008 is admitting now, in 2024, that he has to be schooled by a Pulitzer Prize winning author and an Economics Professor at Stanford on his misunderstanding of what bank capital actually is.”

Chuck again… WOW! But for the record:  bank capital is not a “fund.” It’s not cash. It’s not liquid assets. It’s an accounting term and a balance sheet item whose components have changed over time. Again, I’m reading the book: The Great Taking by David Rogers Webb, and he goes through all this and more… 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to point out something that I’ve talked about until I’m blue in the face, and that is the shortage of Copper, and how the metal hadn’t seen any increases because of the shortage… Well, very quietly, and stealth-like, Copper has inched higher and higher in recent trading sessions, and last night, Copper traded past $4… It’s been a long time coming, been a long time gone (CSNY)… I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is empty again today, with no prints on the docket… The Data Cupboard will pick the pace back up again tomorrow with the print of Feb Retail Sales… I talked about this yesterday, so I won’t go through it again other than to say that the BHI indicates it will be stronger than the average bear… 

To recap… nothing much has gone on with the dollar and currencies, other than the euro has climbed above the 1.09 handle…. The STUPID CPI showed that inflation is still growing and prices are still on the rise, and that caused the bond boys to genuflect and bonds to recover the yield they lost in the last week…  And inflation is changing the landscape folks… and it’s not going anywhere! 

For What It’s Worth… This is an article about how many parents are bailing out their children, and it can be found here: Half of U.S. parents financially support their adult kids (qz.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Getting older is unavoidable, but growing up, well that’s a different story. A new survey found that nearly half (47%) of parents in the U.S. financially support their adult children in some way.

Monthly, parents are contributing about $1,384 to at least one of their adult children. On average, that’s twice as much as what working parents contribute to their own retirement savings, or about $609 a month, the survey found.

The study, conducted online by technology and coupon sleuth company savings.com, surveyed an estimated 1,000 U.S. parents. The data consisted of 50% men and 50% women. Notably, it excludes data from parents who are supporting disabled adult children.

Although parts of the economy are showing signs of improvement, led in part by rising employment and cooling inflation those factors may not be reaching young Americans just yet, the survey said.

In particular, Gen Z, those between 18-27 years old, were the most common group to receive financial support.

Each financial situation, however, is likely to look different for a family. On average, parents helped their Gen Z adult children pay at least three bills, the survey found.”

Chuck again… I don’t see how this comes out without some family problems, and financial disaster… And parents need to plan for retirement without stressing how their children will make ends meet.” all I’ll say about that… 

Market Prices 3/13/2024: American Style: A$ .6610, kiwi .6155, C$ .7462, euro 1.0939, sterling 1.2794, Swiss $1.1390, European Style: rand 18.6535, krone 10.5086, SEK 10.2353, forint 363.08, zloty 3.9142, koruna 23.5392, RUB 91.80, yen 147.98, sing 1.3329, HKD 7.8229, INR 82.86, China 7.1929, peso 16.76, BRL 4.9721, BBDXY 1,230.20, Dollar Index 102.90, Oil $78.31, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $24.33, Platinum $934.00, Palladium $1,069.00, Copper $4.01, and Gold… $2,162.88

That’s it for today… Well, today is Kathy’s Mom’s Birthday! Happy Birthday, Granny! Her mom has been staying with us down here this past week, and I’ve enjoyed having her around!  We will take her out tonight for her birthday dinner… It’s the simple things in life that give me pleasure…  And a nice dinner with two lovely ladies, will do the job! No game for me again today, which means I’ll be outside reading again… The Kinks take us to the finish line today with their song: Sunny Afternoon…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals drift through the day ahead of CPI
• Silver to outperform Gold this year?

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, my trip to the ballpark did not yield a win yesterday, although when the “regulars” were in the game the Cardinals were winning… The team did hit the ball better when they were in there yesterday, so they had that going for them!  Last night we went to one of our fave restaurants down here, : The Dune Dog… The Cure greets me this morning with their song: Close To You… 

I have to admit to something front and center this morning… I apologize for the late Pfennig yesterday… I was such a dolt! I wrote it, and then completely walked away thinking that I had sent it, for it has been a routine of mine for years now, but this time I hadn’t, and didn’t realize that I hadn’t until good friend Dennis Miller kept telling he didn’t see it… UGH! See? I’m a dolt too at times! 

Well, the markets seemed to have taken a pause for the cause yesterday with the dollar not losing ground, and Gold & Silver not gaining any ground. The moves were very small, and led me to believe that the markets are waiting for the STUPID CPI to print before they go any further with the task at hand. There was no movement in Oil or the 10-year yesterday, so I guess we’re all waiting for the print… 

You know me, I think that John Williams www.shadowstats.com has the best, and trues inflation reading… Not the one the BLS uses with all their hedonic adjustments… But, the markets still put a lot of stock in the BLS STUPID CPI print, and so I guess we should too! With the only difference for us being that we know in our heart of hearts that the STUPID CPI is all a bunch of baloney! 

Gold lost 60-cents yesterday, and Silver lost 4-cents… Gold closed at $2,182.20, and Silver closed at $24.34…  The BBDXY lost the 1 index point it had lost overnight, and that was it. Oil remained in its current range ($77-$78), while bonds were unchanged on the day…

In the overnight markets last night… There was little-to-no movement in the dollar, currencies, metals and bonds… The BBDXY starts today at 1,229, Oil with a $78 handle, and the 10-year at 4.08%… Gold is down $6 to start today, nervous nillies ahead of the STUPID CPI… Silver is up 11-cents to start the day… I’ve got something on Silver for you in the FWIW section today, so don’t change that bat channel! 

Well, all the usual suspects that come out when Gold starts a run like this and talk about where they think it will end up… or go to… better yet…  I read that James Rickards is calling for $3,200 for Gold… I say, as long as there are no engineered takedowns here with Gold, then Gold could stay where it is for all I care… It won’t, but you get what I’m saying… right? 

As you know, dear reader, I’ve been quite critical of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and their negative rate policy (nirp), and I’ve talked about how there’s a lot of talk that the BOJ could leave the NIRP soon, and that has really fueled a rally in yen VS dollars…  I pulled this from Bloomberg.com;

 “Markets are reckoning with the very real chance that the Bank of Japan will exit the world’s last remaining negative-rate regime and increase borrowing costs as soon as this month.

It’s a pivotal moment for global funds that have been pouring money into Japanese assets on bets of an economic renaissance, and for domestic investors who have been chasing better returns abroad after decades of disappointment at home.

The yen has surged more than 2% this week, its best run since the start of the year, amid signs that the Bank of Japan sees a sustainable cycle of rising prices and wages taking hold. “

Now, if you’re a betting person, than you would be looking to buy yen, and go with the momentum that would build with a rate hike this month…  But if you’re still of the opinion, like me, that Japan is still a basket case, with their debt and demographics, and would prefer to not touch this currency… 

But if you get past the debt and demographics of Japan, and think strictly about how the BOJ would be the only Central Bank in the World that’s hiking rates right now, as all the other central banks have reached the top of their respective rate cycles…  Then you could rationalize buying yen… 

Last week, a ship going through the gauntlet of the Red Sea was hit and sank… That made me stop and think about why shippers are still attempting to go through this gauntlet, when there are alternative routes that can be taken… I know, I know, stay in my lane here… But it doesn’t stop me from thinking! 

Alasdair MacCleod sent something to the good folks at GATA , when then sent it to me, and it was about how Silver could be the next nickel…  You may recall that in 2022 there was a big kerfuffle when the London Metals Exchange cancelled orders for $12 Billion on March 8, 2022… This caused a $728 Million loss… On the other side of the trade was a HUGE short position by a Chinese nickel producer, that the LME wasn’t aware of… this causing the short positions to be wiped out…  And now Alasdair thinks the same situation could be coming in Silver…  That would be stupendous! To wipe out the short positions and the traders that put them on, would just be peachy in my book!…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this morning has the aforementioned STUPID CPI on the docket to print… I’ll be checking with John Williams after the STUPID CPI prints to see what difference he shows and will report it to you here tomorrow…  Besides the STUPID CPI there’s nothing else today, and tomorrow, and then we’ll pick up the data prints again on Thursday when Feb Retail Sales will print… January’s negative 0.8% print hangs over this month’s print like the Sword of Damocles… But since Consumers running up more debt in Feb has already been reported by me, I would suspect the Retail Sales for Feb will also rebound… 

To recap… It was a day of recovery from all the selling of the dollar  yesterday, and all the buying of Gold & Silver, and bonds were put on hold for the day.  Chuck discusses the Bank of Japan, yen, and its chances of rallying VS the dollar. 

For What It’s Worth… This report on Silver is interesting simply from the fact that it came from an unusual source… The report is about how Silver will outperform Gold this year, and can be found here: Gold vs. silver prices: Analysts expect XAG to outperform XAU in 2024 (cnbc.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Spot gold prices on Monday edged higher to $2,178 per ounce, after settling at their highest since 1979 on Thursday last week.

Spot silver prices, meanwhile, were last seen up 0.2% at $24.36 per ounce at 6:24 a.m. London time (1:24 a.m. ET). The contract, which rose over 5% last week, on Thursday settled at its highest level since late December.

Precious metal prices have pushed higher in recent weeks amid growing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said that inflation is “not far” from where it needs to be for the central bank to start cutting rates.

“The last thing I might add on silver though, as a dual precious and industrial metal, if we start to see global growth pick up a bit more over the course of this year — which is very much our base case — then I would expect silver to go from a relative underperformer to gold to being a relative outperformer to gold over really the third and fourth quarter of this year.”

Earlier in the year, the Silver Institute said in a report that global silver demand was expected to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, hitting its second-highest level on record.

The institute, a non-profit international association composed of various members across the silver industry, told CNBC last month that it expects silver to have a “terrific year,” particularly in terms of demand.”

Chuck again… I mentioned that this report was from an unusual source, and that source being CNBC… It’s very rare when a major media outlet talks the talk with metals…. I’m just saying…

Market Prices 3/12/2024: American Style: A$ .6615, kiwi .6163, C$ .7424, euro 1.0833, sterling 1.2796, Swiss $1.1428, European Style: rand 18.5882, krone 10.4506, SEK 10.2085, forint 362.79, zloty 3.9180, koruna 23.1253, RUB 91.12, yen 147.35, sing 1.3308, HKD 7.8238, INR 82.77, China 7.1705, peso 16.79, BRL 4.9782, BBDXY 1,229.18, Dollar Index 102.80, Oil $78.34, 10-year 4.08%, Silver $24.45, Platinum $929.00, Palladium $1,023.00, Copper $3.93, and Gold…. $2,176.80

That’s it for today… no game for me today… I have 6 more games down here before the team moves out… The Cardinals start the year playing the vaunted Dodgers, and Shohei Otani… a Tough row to hoe out of the starter’s gates, for sure! Cards open at home on April 4… And no team does opening day like the Cardinals! I’ll admit that I fell asleep during the 2^nd half of the City STL game Saturday night, and didn’t see the tying goal… But sure have watched in several times since! Cornelius Brothers & Sister Rose take us to the finish line today with their song: It’s Too Late, To Turn Back Now… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and also I hope that you will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler 

• currencies and metals rally late last week and overnight
• Inflation keeps rates high…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Mizzou Tigers went the whole conference season without winning a game… That’s a sad state of affairs if you ask me! I’ve come to the conclusion that my beloved Cardinals can’t hit… Which would make this upcoming season a very long one… I hope that changes! We said goodbye to our friends, the Schuettes and Sextons on Saturday night… My lovely daughter, Dawn and her family arrive here on Thursday night, it will be a steady stream of visitors from then till the end of the month. The Who greets me this morning with their song: Behind Blue Eyes…

Well, the dollar is slip-sliding away… Slip-sliding away You know the nearer your destination…The more you’re slip sliding away… (ahh Paul Simon to get us going today)… The BBDXY has lost 18 points since last Tuesday morning… The euro is climbing in the 1.09 handle, and all the currencies, including rubles and yen are looking much healthier.  I have to throw out this warning though… Whenever we’ve been at this fork in the road in the past, with the dollar edging nearer to the cliff, the PPT steps in and blasts all the long dollar trades, with intervention, that’s funded by their treasure chest of funds… So, be careful out there… 

Gold & Silver have really reacted favorably to the dollar’s woes… When I left you last Thursday, Gold was trading at $2,131… And by the time Friday’s close came around, Gold had moved up to $2,178… Silver too has come along nicely, as it was trading around $23.83 on Thursday morning and then closed on Friday at $24.26… 

The short positions are getting killed right now, and I couldn’t be happier about that! But will the short paper traders come back and attempt to get these medals lower again with an engineered takedown, like we’ve seen so many times previously?  I guess, we’ll have to wait-n-see, eh? 

The price of Oil is range-bound these days, trading around $77-78… I still like Oil to move higher, but, don’t tell everyone I said that, because then I will have jinxed the move!  And Powell’s little foray into the land of make believe last week, still has the bond boys all lathered up and calling their other halves to put on the their red dresses cause they are going out on the town… The 10-year’s yield on Friday, had dropped to 4.08%, from 4.19% on Tuesday last week… And on 2/22, the 10-year’s yield was 4.31%… So, this is getting out of hand, now… 

In the overnight market last night… The dollar appears to be in real trouble, folks, because even the overnight markets continued to sell the dollar, with the BBDXY losing another 1.38 index points to start our day/ week. Gold & Sliver are seeing some “real” profit taking, and are starting the day/ week down small amounts… no biggie, here, they are on a roll, and won’t be stopped by some profit taking… from goofy people that think these metals of nothing more than a commodity that is traded like stocks… 

As I’ve explained many times in the past, that in the East, they get it… They look at Gold as a store of wealth, that’s passed down from family to family, it’s how they measure one’s wealth, not by flimsy no backing currency… In the West, (like here) that frame of mind still is lacking but is catching on, but will take some time for it to really control how Gold is looked at in this country by investors… 

The price of Oil remains range trading, ($77-$78) and bonds continue to get bought by the basketful… The 10-years’s yield this morning is 4.08%… 

Well, is the U.S. consumer tapped out? Or, have they ordered up a new set of credit cards and begun to spend again? That was the question I had when I saw the Consumer Credit (read debt) for January. Consumer borrowing was up 4.7% in Jan, VS just .2% in December… And… Revolving credit, like credit cards, accelerated at a 7.7% rate in January after a 2.4% gain in December.  So, now you know what I am talking about above, right? I mean it had to be a case of obtaining new credit cards! Just had to be! 

And that leads me to talk about inflation… or better yet, rising costs, which just happen to be the real problem for households… with things like college costs rising 185%, Medical care rising 133%, New cars rising 25%, and all other costs rising 83%, the economy is in real danger here folks… And just because a TV now costs 98% less, it doesn’t help!  These rises are based on the year 2000… So, in 24 years, this is what we’ve got… And those prices are never going to come back down, mark my words on that!

 The Federal Reserve’s “Financial Accounts of the United States” is always something to read, even it’s 190 pages! It doesn’t contain any Wall Street spin, or words from the spin doctors…. And in it it’s explained that the U.S. Gov’t had to finance $2.026 Trillion in 2023… OUCH!  And it was just last week that it was announced that the U.S. was adding more than $1 Trillion in debt every 3 months!  Who’s going to buy / finance all that debt?

In a time when more and more countries are shying away from willy-nilly buying U.S. Gov’t debt, this has got to be scary for the debt hungry congress-people… I’m just saying… They had better get their debt cutting pants on or else they will bring this country to its knees…

I’m full of seashells and balloons this morning, eh? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard contained a lot of lies, last week…  just like the state of the Union address on Thursday night last week… Here’s one that I caught: The current administration claims the gross domestic product is booming, but much of it comes from government spending and employment. The government share of gross domestic product in the United States today is 42%, including federal, state and local spending.  

And here’s a caveat of that spending… the 42% share of GDP is equal to what it was in the Soviet Union before their collapse…  I’m just saying… 

And here’s more lies for you… The BLS said that 275,000 jobs were created in February… That sounds like a lot of jobs doesn’t it? Kind of like too good to be true? Well, when you consider that 151,000 jobs were added by the BLS to the surveys after they received them, then 275,000 jobs is just that, too good to be true!  Take out TCP, I mean, take out the 151,000 from 275,000 and you get a paltry 124,00 jobs actually created in February… 

Lies and more lies, and the more the Gov’t tells us these lies, the more they begin to sound true, and that’s what the Gov’t is hoping will happen folks… It’s up to you and me to tell it like it is, and point out the lies… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today is empty… But tomorrow we’ll see the STUPID CPI, for Feb… Oh boy, may I have another? Well, I guess we’ll have to suffer through another print of the STUPID CPI, and see what the markets think after the Gov’t tells us what they want us to hear, not know… 

To recap… Well, since last Tuesday, when Chuck came back from vacation, the dollar has lost a lot of ground. In the BBDXY it has lost 18 index points as of last Friday’s close… The euro is pushing higher again, and the rest of the currencies all look healthier. Gold & Silver are pushing the envelope with regards to gains VS the dollar, or vice versa… Depends on how you look at it… And somebody or some institution is buying bonds again… Could it be? …. Nah, couldn’t be them, they said they were out of the bond buying business, and they wouldn’t lie to us would they?  See above for an explanation on their lies… 

For What It’s Worth… This came to me from longtime reader, Bob… (Thanks!) and it’s about how we’re adding $1 Trillion of debt every 100 days, and it can be found here: Why They Are Creating $1 Trillion of Debt Every 100 Days – LewRockwell

Or, here’s your snippet: “From 2000 through 2007, while waging two wars in the Middle East, the U.S. ANNUAL Federal deficit averaged $220 billion PER YEAR. And many fiscal conservatives thought that was outrageously out of control. Well, Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, the despicable scum in Congress, and the rest of the Deep State calling the shots in this military empire of delusion and debt said, HOLD MY BEER.

Just as the wheels were starting to come off in late 2019, the convenient arrival of the Covid plandemic provided the cover for these purveyors of propaganda and panic to run $3 trillion deficits and establish a new baseline of $1 trillion per year. The house of cards, built upon a crumbling foundation of debt comes crashing down when deficits are allowed to drop below $1 trillion. Running in place gets more expensive by the day.

Now it requires $1 trillion of new debt every 100 days to achieve nothing but remaining static economically. The regime media pundits and the cabal on Wall Street tell us the economy is doing great. No recession in sight. All is well. The dumbed down and distracted ignorant masses don’t realize all the reported “economic growth” is “created” by the government, enabled by The Fed, spending billions on their wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, funneling the money into the Military Industrial Complex corporations; paying for the transportation, feeding, and housing of the illegal invading hordes; hiring more government drones to harass the citizenry, and desperately trying to prop up a corrupt tottering empire in its final death throes.

Anyone with even the slightest mathematical acumen knows increasing the national debt at a rate of $1 trillion every 100 days is a death wish. Why would those pulling the strings behind the scenes of this acceleration towards the cliff of national suicide be doing so at this point in time? It’s almost as if the November elections are a deadline for them to complete their exit strategy plan.”

Chuck again… I told you last week that I’m reading the book: The Great Taking, by David Rogers Webb, and it that book he describes how causing a great collapse of the economy, will bring about the Gov’t taking our land, our bank accounts, our homes, etc.   I know it’s dark, and jaded, but it sure makes a lot of sense as to why these folks are running up the debt like this… I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 3/11/2024: American Style: A$.6615, kiwi .6179, C$ .7420, euro 1.0941, sterling 1.2847, Swiss $1.1412, European Style: rand 18.7134, krone 10.4436, SEK 10.2210, forint 360.82, zloty 3.9150, koruna 23.0794, RUB 90.59, yen 146.69, sing 1.3297, HKD 7.8195, INR 82.76, China 7.1856, peso 16.80, BRL 4.9638, BBDXY 1,228.01, Dollar Index 102.70, Oil $77.72, 10-year 4.08%, Silver $24.35, Platinum $926.00, Palladium $1,038.00, Copper $3.93, and Gold… $2,178.58

That’s it for today… The Oscars were last night, wait! don’t tell me who won, because I just don’t care! I watched a PBS special Saturday night, it was Elvis’s 1968 Comeback Concert… Man, he was great when he wanted to be! Back to the ballyard again today… I love Roger Dean Stadium… And I still have 7 more games this spring! YAHOO!  The weather has been consistently good, and that’s a plus… I received my global entry card in the mail, so now I’m good to go on my trip to Ireland this summer!  Tommy Tutone takes us to the finish line today with his one hit wonder song: 867-5309 (Jenny)… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally after the Powell comments
• Here we go again with Japan…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! A whirlwind Wednesday for yours truly, with a trip to meet some friends, and all the laughter and fun on the evening… This time in S. Florida seems to going too fast, and it won’t be too long before I’m heading back to St. Louis… UGH! Not that I don’t like my home, it’s just that it’s not S. Florida…  Weezer greets me this morning with their song: Island In The Sun… 

Well… here we go again! Catch us if you can… time to get a move on… We will run with all of our hearts! Oh, for the Dave Clark 5 to be singing this instead of me at this hour of the morning!  But here we go again, with the rate cut talk, and this time it was Jerome Powell who supplied the news…. Give me BREAK! Stocks rallied, Gold rallied, and bonds rallied… All because Powell said that we could see a rate cut by year end… 

You may remember that it was Powell who just a couple of weeks ago, said that there were no plans for a rate cut this year…   UGH!  So, as long as there is a chance, slim chance, and slim apparently didn’t leave town, the dollar is getting sold… The BBDXY lost 4 index points yesterday, and the euro started knocking on the 1.09 handle… I just don’t get it… Inflation isn’t going away, and Powell is talking about a rate cut?  Was this his attempt to throw the stock market jockeys a bone? Probably… because you do know that the deep state is Powell’s boss, and they don’t like seeing their stock holdings going down in value…  I’m just saying…

Gold was already in rally mode when the Powell words became public, and Gold took off! Gold, on the day, gained $20.60 and finished the day at $2,147.90.. Silver too saw its early morning small gain turn to something to write home about, with Silver gaining 53-cents on the day to finish at $24.15…  It was a day without interference by the short paper traders, and that makes me smile… I totally dislike those ba%^$#Ws, and hope they get to visit Satan in the after life…  But we move on here… 

The dollar got sold after the Powell comments, and the BBDXY lost 4 index points on the day, So, here we go again with the dollar… in the overnight markets the BBDXY lost 3 more points, so the selling in intensifying for the dollar, and we all know what happens when that gets to intense, right? The PPT steps in a protects the dollar… So, don’t get all giddy about your currencies until we sort through what the PPT is going to do… 

The euro, is closing in on 1.09, again… and the rest of the currencies all look healthier this morning… The price of Oil remains trading with a $78 handle, and bonds seemed to be the trade of the day yesterday, with the 10-year’s yield dropping to 4.16%… Throw the bond boys a bone, and they go hog wild with their ideas that they will see multiple rate cuts soon… They are trained like Pavlov’s Dog… Good boy… sit, good boy… 

In the overnight markets last night the dollar got sold some more, with the BBDXY showing another 3 point loss. The euro inches toward 1.09 again, and the rest of the currencies are looking healthier this morning. Gold is up $6 in the early trading today, and Silver is seeing some profit taking, but remaining above $24, as we start our day…  Bonds really got bought overnight, with the 10-year’s yield dropping to 4.10%!   Unbelievable! Who’s doing that buying? I’m at a loss here folks… 

Well, in Japan this week, their latest inflation report showed that inflation had gained from 1.9% to 2.6%, and that has the rate hike folks all up in arms again… Fool me once, but you won’t fool me twice… The yen is rallying on the inflation news, and Japanese bonds are getting bought again… Seen all this before?  Yes, we saw this scenario all play out earlier this year, and then as usual the Japanese disappointed the markets, and they most likely will do that again… I’m just saying…

The European Central Bank (ECB ) is meeting as I write this morning, and my thought here is that the ECB will keep rates unchanged, and only give the markets a hint that rates would be moved lower, slowly, in the future, as long as inflation remains somewhat tamed… 

Well… I had a dear reader write to me yesterday, and ask me about Executive Order 14067, that was signed on March 9, 2022…. I told him the same thing that I’ll tell you now:” I wrote in May of 2020 that we would be getting digital currencies soon… I talked about how they would bring about lower deposit rates, and government surveillance and that closing your account and going to the bank down the street wouldn’t Matter because all banks would be the same…

The loss of your folding cash and ability to keep your purchases private will be the biggest problems 

There’s also the idea that the bank could take exception to your spending… and fix fines to your balance or take control of your account very easily because the government is behind them…. “

They call the executive order Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets …  Once again I was years ahead of this, and tried to get people to contact their representative and tell them to go to hello operator give me number 9…. if they allowed this to happen…

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday has the ADP Employment Report for Feb, and it showed that only 140,000 jobs were created in Feb. (150,000 were expected)… Again, Chuck believes that this is the jobs report that everyone should use, not the cockamamie B.S. that the BLS gives us…  The Job Openings last month remained at 8.9 Million… 

To recap… Powell threw the dollar under the bus yesterday, with his comments about how there could be a rate cut later this year… This after he told us earlier that there would be no rate cut this year… The bond Boys went hog wild, and the Gold bugs were happy campers… The whole day was a result of Powell’s words…  Now that’s a shame isn’t it? 

For What It’s Worth… Well, it was nice to see that someone else is saying what I’m saying about the euro these days… This article appeared in Reuters and it can be found here: Euro is back on the scene for global central banks | Reuters

Or, here’s your snippet: ” Once hurt by crises and deflation, the euro is gaining popularity among central bank reserve managers thanks to a return to positive rates and geopolitics challenging king dollar’s appeal.

Roughly one in five of the 75 central banks surveyed by the London-based OMFIF think-tank anticipate increasing euro holdings over the next two years, its recently published 2023 report showed.

While 7% looked to decrease euro holdings, net demand was higher than for any other currency during the period and a jump from the 2021 and 2022 surveys of reserve managers controlling nearly $5 trillion.

Shifts can take years to play out. The dollar, which makes up 60% of global reserves versus the euro’s 20%, will not lose its crown overnight.

Yet, a more positive euro outlook speaks to notable changes taking place.

For starters, the European Central Bank’s exit from negative interest rates in 2022 drove euro area government bond yields higher after almost a decade below 0%, and they should remain elevated even as rate cuts near.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield has stayed above 1.9% since late 2022.

“Now the euro is positive yielding, (reserve managers) are looking to increase their currency allocation to the euro and specifically away from the dollar,” said Taylor Pearce, OMFIF senior economist.

“For some central banks, because the euro wasn’t yielding anything, they had held a higher share of dollars and especially dollar-denominated government bonds.”

Poland’s central bank, whose reserves are dominated by dollar and euro-denominated assets, told Reuters that while it did not comment on changes to reserves, “medium-term expected returns for euro area government bonds have improved considerably, which certainly increases the appeal of the asset class”.

Chuck again… and as I always point out… The euro is the offset currency of the dollar, and so as the dollar goes, the opposite holds true for the euro…  You should remember that, for when the dollar goes into a long term weak trend… 

Market Prices 3/7/2024: American Style: A$ .6604, kiwi .6151, C$ .7405, euro 1.0895, sterling 1.2755, Swiss $1.1372, European Style: rand 18.9616, krone 10.4708, SEK 10.2861, forint 363.20, zloty 3.9513, koruna 23.2897, RUB 90.89, yen 147.80, sing 1.3355, HKD 7.8225, INR 82.78, China 7.1979, peso 16.85, BRL 4.9467, BBDXY 1,233.78, Dollar Index 103.17, Oil $78.40, 10-year 4.10%, Silver $24.19, Platinum $926.00, Palladium $1,062.00, Copper $3.93, and Gold… $2,156.40

That’s it for today… Well the first week of March certainly has been interesting… I think by the time summer arrives, this county could be in some real trouble financially, morally, and ethically… I guess the people of this country want to see the two old geezers go at again in the presidential vote… That’s all I have to say about that! I’ll be in my seat today for the Cardinals and Astros at Roger Dean Stadium… Look for me! HA! Our Blues get on the ice tonight in New Jersey… This Sunday will the start of Daylight Savings Time, and it will be the birthday of my good friend, Rick B… So, Happy Birthday early, and I hope you have a grand day, my friend! The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their song: Ride My See-Saw… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies drift and the short traders enter the markets
• Revisions equal lies…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I was wrong about my wife having her mom and sister in tow yesterday. Her sister doesn’t come until later this month… You know what I heard then right? “Don’t you ever listen to me?”…  HA!  It’s so nice to have my wife back! Seriously! I don’t know what I would do without all the criticism! OK.. enough of that!  My beloved Cardinals finally hit a home run in Spring Training games yesterday… I had just mentioned to friend Pat that the Cardinals lack of home runs would end today, and then voila! A home run was hit! Maybe I should have booked a flight to Vegas after that?  10CC greets me this morning with their song: Dreadlock Holiday… 

Well, Gold & Silver were on a run, until they weren’t yesterday… Gold began the day at $2,130, and at one point in the day it reached a price of $2,142.30, but after the short paper traders showed up, Gold ended the day at $2,125.70, thus down $5 on the day… Silver also saw a run that ended with short paper traders entered the market… Silver started the day $23.81, and traded as high as $24.27, before ending the day at $23.67, thus down 14-cents on the day… So, even though the short paper traders were anywhere to be seen on Friday and Monday, and led some to believe that they had thrown in the towel, they obviously hadn’t, and are still the wolf at the door… 

The dollar started the day yesterday, down 2 index points in the BBDXY, and spent the rest of the day maintaining that level… (1,241)… The euro appeared to have not moved one iota, after a day of trading… And the rest of the currencies followed the Big Dog, euro all day… As I said yesterday, the Petrol Currencies just aren’t getting the love they should be getting while the price of Oil is high… And the the price of Oil remained in the $78 handle yesterday, even after the Saudis and OPEC confirmed that they would extend the production cuts that they announced a couple of months ago.  And the 10-year saw its yield slide a bit and ended the day with a 4.18% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night…Well, once again, in the foreign markets the dollar got sold, not by large amounts, but sold nonetheless. The BBDXY is down 1.75 index points this morning, and the euro finally woke up from its slumber and move higher in the 1.08 handle. The Mexican peso continues to be shining light for currencies VS the dollar. 

Gold is up $6 in the early trading today, and Silver is up 20-cents, so another day of gains, that we have to worry about the short paper traders…  The price of Oil remains in the $78 handle, and there was some additional slippage in the 10-year’s yield, as it sits at 4.16% this morning. 

The ISM Services data that printed yesterday, and was weaker than the previous month (52% VS 53%), and brought back some thought that inflation is easing… And that got the bonds bought for some crazy notion that inflation is easing… I told you yesterday that consumer inflation is probably higher than 8% according to Forbes, and that they called out the phony baloney CPI reports… 

Well, in the U.K. they are observing the 25^th anniversary of the biggest blunder in Central Bank history made the Bank of England… Here’s the skinny from the Telegraph: “It has been considered one of the worst financial blunders the Government ever made. On May 7, 1999, the UK Treasury announced it would be selling over half of the nation’s gold reserves.

The move, made by then chancellor Gordon Brown, was done in a bid to diversify and strengthen Britain’s reserves by reducing the proportion held in gold. Yet the sale came at what turned out to be the very bottom of the gold market, ultimately costing the Exchequer billions of pounds in lost profits.

As the 25th anniversary of Mr Brown’s now infamous decision approaches, the price of gold on Monday hit a record high.”

Chuck again… This is something that every Gold holder should keep in mind…  Gold is a store of wealth… and should not be traded nilly willy…  I’m just saying… 

Well… remember when I told you that eventually, the U.S. will choke on its debt?  The debt is being added to by $1 Trillion every couple of months now, and building momentum… Here’s Bill Bonner’s take on it: “It took the US 190 years to accumulate its first $1 trillion of debt. But now the ‘ground rush’ begins; time speeds up. The US adds $1 trillion in debt every few months. The latest projections show national debt at $60 trillion by 2034. That would put the interest expense around $3 trillion. You reach for the rip cord. But it’s not there. The insiders benefit from federal spending…and they control Congress. No parachute is available.

One way or another, the past will get what’s coming to it.  

Patience.”

Chuck again… that was in Bill’s newsletter from yesterday that can be found at Bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com 

I keep telling my kids about how they need to save as much as they can, each month when they are paid, but I know what they think when I begin to harp at them, “here he goes again, talking about debt”… But one, day, they will see the debt for what it is and the harm that it causes, and they will turn to their children and begin to sound like me…  But by then, who knows what will be going on in the world, with all this debt? 

on a sidebar, I’m now reading a book that I will let everyone know when I finish it, if it should be read by all… I’m thinking it will need to be read, but first, I’m going to get to reading it, it’s a book by: David Rogers Webb, titled: The Great Taking… the book is in line with my thinking that all this debt has been a plan by the dark side, to impoverish all of us… And end up taking everything we own… 

Now, I know that’s really dark and jaded, and I’m not that kind of guy per se… But, I’m also a logic kind of guy, and everything I say about debt, the digital currency, and plans by the Gov’t are logic…  plain and simple… 

Yesterday’s Data Cupboard had Jan Factory Orders, and just as I said they would be, they printed negative -3.6%…  And the previous month’s number was revised downward…  This is something that I’ve talked about in previous Pfennigs… And that is how the Propeller Heads in the Gov’t agencies that produce these reports, just throw out numbers, and the markets react to them… But then the downward revision hits the next month, and the markets don’t pay attention to it!  For the record, this data In the last 21 months, U.S. factory orders have been downwardly revised 16 times… That’s a shame isn’t it? 

Today’s Data Cupboard has the ADP Employment Report for February… You know that I truly believe that the ADP report should be what the markets use for Jobs data… But they don’t, and so we have to put up with all the shenanigans from the BLS… 

To recap… The dollar drifted throughout the U.S. session yesterday, and that showed in euro’s trading, which showed basically no movement from the previous day. Gold & Sliver had their rallies shut down yesterday… Short paper trading ruled the day.  And Chuck has some other things up his sleeve this morning… 

For What It’s Worth… Slim pickens on the FWIW this morning, but I did find this on Reuters this morning… it’s about the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) problem that the country is facing and it can be found here: US banks far more exposed than Europeans to property crunch, says Morgan Stanley | Reuters

Or, here’s your snippet: “Major European banks have been cutting their lending to commercial property and have half the exposure of their U.S. peers, making U.S. lenders more vulnerable as office prices plunge further, Morgan Stanley said on Tuesday.

Commercial real estate (CRE) markets are in the grip of the biggest downturn since the 2008-9 financial crisis as higher borrowing costs and a spike in vacancy rates driven by more people working from home hit demand for office space.

Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note that regional U.S. banks looked most exposed, alongside German regional lenders – which unlike bigger European banks had been increasing their exposure.

“Overall, we think CRE-related issues will not translate into a systemic event, but rather a manageable earnings impact localized to a small set of banks,” the analysts wrote.

In a ‘stress scenario’, in which property price falls force banks to recognise losses and borrowers’ credit quality worsens, European banks would face a 3% hit to earnings over three years, which the analysts called “manageable”.”

Chuck again… What no systemic event? Are you kidding me? This is what the problem in the country is, folks… Telling lies… 

Market Prices 3/6/2024: American Style:  A$ .6524, kiwi .6102, C$ .7367, euro 1.0867, sterling 1.2722, Swiss $1.1300, European Style: rand 18.8622, krone 10.5305, SEK 10.3641, forint 361.09, zloty 3.9587, koruna 23.2915, RUB 90.60, yen 149.70, sing 1.3412, HKD 7.8238, INR 82.83, China 7.1992, peso 16.89, BRL 4.9583, BBDXY 1,239.16, Dollar Index 103.64, Oil $78.93, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $23.83, Platinum $887.00, Palladium $984.00, Copper $3.85, and Gold… $2,131.70

That’s it for today… My beloved Mizzou Tigers are finishing up the regular season and don’t have one win in conference play…UGH! no SEC Tournament for them, and its time to think about next year… The weather down here has finally become “Florida-like”, and that led to multiple days of great weather last week, while my buddies were here… So, now I can get back to soaking up Vitamin D! Triumph takes us to the finish line today with their song: Magic Power… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler