February 6, 2023
* Lies, lies, lies…
* U.S. shoots down the Chinese spy balloon…
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I’ve got to warn you now, that I’m going to go into a rant about the B.S. I mean BSL jobs report last Friday in the letter today, so prepare yourself for mean Chuck, not the nice Chuck… And then I’ll keep the mean Chuck going for a talk about egregious engineered takedown of Gold & Silver… And shoot Rudy, I guess I’ll keep it going with a talk about the dollar… So, if you don’t like mean Chuck, you had better skip to my Lou down to the Big Finish today, otherwise, get ready, for some real head bashing! The Ides of March greet me this morning with their song: Vehicle…
Right out of the starter’s blocks this morning, I’m going to get into the Jobs report that started all the selling and takedowns on Friday… The BLS reported that 507,000 jobs were created in January, with the largest portion of jobs created in manufacturing… OK… let’s stop for a minute here… What did we learn earlier in the week? That manufacturing was contracting and had been contracting for 9 months, and that it showed that it continued to slip further down the pole… So… The BLS has the audacity to tell us that a sector (manufacturing) that’s contracting is hiring tons of people? C’mon, I was born, just not yesterday! Remember, the ADP Employment report for the same period showed that only 106,000 job were added in January, and that the expectations for the BLS report was just 187,000 jobs… But NOOOOOOO! The B.S., I mean the BLS said that 507,000 jobs were added, and that the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% a level last reached in 1969… Oh, they forgot to tell you that in 1969, the way unemployment was calculated was different than they way the calculate it now….. They didn’t tell you because…
They think we’re all stupid, country bumpkins… doofuses… dunces in the corner of the room with dunce caps on… I’m beyond being amazed at their brazenness… This is all political folks… I say that, and I’ll dip my toe in the political arena here… The State of the Union Address is on the docket, and what else can the POTUS talk about than his economic policies that are winning, and he’ll use the Unemployment rate, and amount of jobs created as his proof… And that’s what this is all about, folks…
So… the B.S., I mean BLS Jobs report got the price manipulators out of their beds early, and had them all lathered up ready to take down Gold… (& Silver)… You see, what happened after the trumped up jobs report is that all the short positions on the books for the dollar, were pulled, and the dollar turned around and made up all its recent losses in one day! The PPT (plunge protection team) decided to put some of that ESF (exchange Stabilization Funds) to work, buying tons of dollars, and it got down right ridiculous! The BBDXY gained 15 index points to end the week at 1,233… All the currencies that has been picking up steam VS the dollar, lost it all on Friday… For instance, the euro, which on Thursday morning was within’ spittin’ distance of 1.10, fell to a level below 1.08…
I don’t know how else to talk about this but to rant.. .so here goes some more… Gold, which last week, had gained to a level above $1,950, lost $48 on Friday, to go with it’s loss on Thursday, and Gold ended the week at $1,865.00… Nearly $100 of loss in two days… For what reason? I was thinking that Thursday’s loss was strange, but put it down as profit taking because Gold had gained over $300 in the last couple of months… But then on Friday, it was not profit taking, it was downright engineered takedown, and one that was so brazen and outright ridiculous…
So… Friday was an awful day for the non dollar investments… A day that will go down in history as a day that all the price manipulators rejoiced their total win over the markets… You would think that after all the price engineered takedowns that have occurred that I would become comfortably numb (Pink Floyd) about them, but they still, to this day, make me madder than a wet hen!
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar buying continued, and now the reason that was being given is that it’s a flight to safety, given the U.S. and China tension… I say balderdash! It’s all about the PPT stepping in and saving the dollar from an embarrassing run down the slippery slope. So, the BBDXY is up 5 index points this morning, with the currencies all looking sad, after reaching heights they hadn’t reached in a month of Sundays, just last week… Gold is up $5 in the early trading this morning, and Silver is up a plug nickel… The currencies & metals have had the stuffing knocked out of them by the dollar, and now it’s time to pick up the pieces, and try to assemble another run at the king dollar…
The price of Oil really got the snot knocked out of it late last week, and trades this morning with a $73 handle… There was a story about how Turkey halted oil flows to the Ceyhan export terminal on the Mediterranean coast after a major earthquake. I doubt this will help the price of Oil too much, and for too long, as long as no leaks are detected in the pipeline. Bond got sold late last week too… stocks got sold, bonds got sold, currencies got sold, metals got sold, Hmmm… no where to run and hide… The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.60%, after falling to 3.40% earlier last week… Batten down the hatches, it’s time to weather the storm once again… We’ve been through this before.. just keep our heads down and get to work, these things will work out in the end… That’s about the best thing I can tell you to do after all that manipulation of data and markets last week.
Those are words that my dad said to me, when I was a young man… “Chuck, when things aren’t going your way, just put your head down and go to work”… And honoring my dad, I would use those same words to my colleagues on the trading desk through the years…
So, let’s step back, circle the wagons, and talk about this thought that threw out there tha the B.S., I mean BLS jobs report was political… I mean that all the news lately had been about how the dollar was in trouble going forward, with new alternate methods to pay than with dollars, and how Oil could be getting paid for with the currency of the country buying the oil, and even the idea that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, was backing off their fight against inflation… But on Friday, the dollar was bought hand over fist, like none of these things that were mounting up against the dollar mattered…
So, what was a gov’t agency to do? Trump up the jobs report, to some unimaginable number, that reeks of falsehood, but they knew that the markets would take the bait, hook, line and sinker… And that the price manipulators would take their cue that it was time for the to show up with arms full of short positions, and the PPT to use the ESF.. And then the POTUS would be able to tell the American people, that the economy is good, and working just fine… We, as in you and me, all know differently, we see the economic data prints and know the truth… But when did the truth ever get in the way of a good lie?
Ok… I am aware that the B.S., I mean the BLS had issued a report that outlined “adjustments” and “revisions” that they were going to make… The revisions – in case there was any question – were to the upside, and made the Establishment survey data appear even stronger… So, the question is, were these revisions merited, or purely goalseeked propaganda…. I believe it was the latter of the two, and I’m going to stick with that…
The “revisions” were supposed to find what Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman Powell, said were 2.5 – 3 Million missing workers in the economy… Now he didn’t explain how he came to that number, but what the heck, he’s the Big Man on Campus, so B.S., I mean the BLS took that as their cue to find a way to uncover the 3 million missing workers, and I would say that given their 817,000 adjustment to the December jobs report, that originally just had 153,000 jobs create, they’ve done their job! Now, how in the hell they did that, besides just taking an eraser and rubbing out 153,000 and replacing it with 817,000, is beyond their ability to explain it… So just go with that!
See, I’m in no mood to be nice today to the these manipulators, and snake oil salesmen of data… Why can’t markets just be markets without interference? I shake my head in disgust!
Ok, I don’t make up these numbers folks… the latest report from Transunion showed that credit card debt has soared to a record $930.6 billion at the end of 2022, a 18.5% spike from a year earlier, according to the latest quarterly report by TransUnion.
The average interest rated on credit cards has risen to 20%!!!!
The average balance rose to $5,805 over that same period, TransUnion found.
At nearly 20%, if you made minimum payments toward this average credit card balance, it would take you more than 17 years to pay off the debt and cost you more than $8,213 in interest, Bankrate calculated.
Overall, an additional 202 million new credit accounts were opened in the fourth quarter, led by originations among Generation Z, or adults ages 18 to 25, and the tally of total credit cards hit a record 518.4 million.
I found some of that data on CNBC.com.. so if you want more, you know where to find it!
The U.S. Data Cupboard takes a break today to let everyone catch their breath from Thursday and Friday’s Armageddon, in the markets… No data today, but in reality, what difference does that make? The Data showed that the economy was teetering, but that didn’t matter, to the B.S., I mean the BLS… And the price manipulators…
To recap… For those of you who skipped today’s rant, welcome back… you missed Chuck calling out the B.S, I mean the BLS, report, for what it was… Ahh, now you’re interested? Not too late you can go back and read it, even though you didn’t want to at first! HA! Just know that the trumped up report, got the price manipulators, including the PPT, out of bed early, and on their way to wiping out all the gains the currencies and metals had garnered lately… And it’s all about politics… In my view, that is…
For What It’s Worth… Ok, calming down a bit now… I found this in my email box from the good folks at GATA, but not to worry, it can be read on a different source. It’s about Gold… of course! , and how it’s being looked at now by new buyers and can be found here: The new global gold rush : NPR
Or, here’s your snippet: “2022 was a rough year for investors: Between inflation, falling stock prices, and the crypto crash, it was hard to find a safe haven.
All of that economic turmoil had a lot of investors looking at one of the most ancient places to store wealth: gold.
For decades, investing in gold has been seen as a very old school investment, for the maverick, perhaps slightly anti-establishment investor. But last year, it seemed everyone wanted in. Global demand for gold jumped nearly 20% to a decade high.
One of those buyers was Julia Grugen, 20, a finance major at Temple University. A few months ago, she made one of her first big investments ever. In gold.
“I went in to the coin store and it was all men,” she recalls with a laugh. Grugan quickly realized she was not the typical gold customer. “I was a little timid and I had barrettes in my hair.”
But Grugan was determined. She had seen studying economics and finance and she wasn’t interested in the investments her friends were excited about, like NFTs and cryptocurrency.
“I am that old school girl,” she says. “And for gold specifically, I definitely think of it as a value store more than an investment.”
Investors all over the world have been looking for a value store: a safe haven from inflation, geopolitical problems and other things that can erode the value of a country’s money.”
Chuck again… I highlighted that part above because the woman “gets it”! Now, if more people would look to Gold as a store of wealth, and not a commodity that it traded for gains and losses, then… maybe we can turn the corner with Gold…
Market Prices 2/5/2023: American Style: A$ .6896, kiwi .6298, C$ .7438, euro 1.0762, sterling 1.2031, Swiss $1.0790, European Style: rand 17.6154, krone 10.2786, SEK 10.5733, forint 352.64, zloty 4.3901, koruna 22.2158, RUB 70.82, yen 131.19, sing 1.3252, HKD 7.8467, INR 82.73, China 6.7873, peso 19.07, BRL 5.1333, BBDXY 1,239.14, Dollar Index 103.33, Oil $73.55, 10-year 3.60%, Silver $22.41, Platinum $983.00, Palladium $1,596.00, Copper $4.09, and Gold… $1,870.29
That’s it for today… It was a bad weekend for my teams… Both the Mizzou Tigers and SLU Billikens lost their basketball games… And the weather here turned bad too… the sun finally made an appearance late yesterday afternoon, the skies cleared, and it was delightful once again… I went to dinner with my good friend, Gus, Saturday night, man, that was yummy! WE kind of got a little lost going to the new restaurant, but eventually found it! If we had simply followed the directions I had pulled before we left…. The skies cleared for a full moon rise out of the ocean yesterday… Simply beautiful! The U.S. shot down the Chinese spy balloon after it had passed over the U.S…. Don’t know exactly what they were waiting for, but they finally did it… The Chinese are not happy… Let’s hope that just leads to some saber rattling… and nothing more serious. Chicago takes us the finish line today with their song: Wake Up Sunshine… “ooh it’s good to have you here with me”… Yeah, that song… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and will remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler