Whoopee! Our Debt Has The Green Light To Go Higher!

May 30, 2023

* dollar buying ends on Friday… 

* Chuck explains The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s lies… 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, how was your Memorial Day Weekend? Mine was OK… no family or friends around, no bar-be-queing, etc.  But I did take some time to think about all the soldiers that had given your lives for my freedom… Well, it sound like they finally got around to agreeing on a debt escalation… The vote still has to be done in Congress, and I’m not sure these knuckleheads have our best interests at heart… So, we’ll see what happens on Wednesday this week. Todd Rundgren greets me this morning with one of my fave songs of all time: Hello It’s Me… 
I don’t want to get into the debt escalation agreement this morning, other than to point out that there were some spending cuts agreed on by the POTUS… But these spending cuts aren’t the kind that would make the deficit lower, they are window dressing at best… There were some new requirements for food stamps and snap recipients…  But overall, it just means there is a pathway for our debt to continue to go higher, and higher… How high can it go before the weight of the debt collapses the financial status of the country?  Good question… It all depends on how long will the foreign countries continue to buy our debt?  From the looks of what’s going on right now, I would think that it won’t be much longer… I mean 5-10 years?  maybe even shorter… 
OK… Well the dollar buying ended on Friday, as traders, investors decided that it wasn’t such a good time to be loading up on dollars with a default on the table… There was no dollar selling either though… So, the traders, etc. weren’t fully convinced of a default… The BBDXY lost about 1 index point on the day, so for all intent and purpose, it was flat on the day…  And ended the week at 1,245…  Gold gained $5 on Friday, and at one point, the gain was much more, but, then it wasn’t… short paper traders showed up… need I say more?  Silver really shined on Friday, gaining 57-cents!  Silver had been the punching bag for the short paper traders for a month now, so it was nice to see it fight back… 
The price of Oil remained with a $74 handle through Friday, and the 10-year’s yield has risen to 3.81%!  I’m still trying to put my finger on what’s keeping yields so low? Yes, they’re rising right now, but they have been held down for so long that it leads me to believe that there is some entity that is buying bulk at times when yields begin to rise… you know someone like: JPMorgan, the NY Fed, and others… 
In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar was sold but not by large amounts with the BBDXY losing 2 index points to start the day today… Gold is up $14 to star the day today, and there are reports of short covering propelling Gold higher… I mentioned that last could happen last week, when I talked about Gold being so oversold… Silver, after kicking some tail on Friday, is starting the week getting sold again… Hopefully Gold can pull Silver out of this funk today.. 
The price of Oil has slid to a $71 handle… I guess all that talk last week about how the Saudis were warning the short sellers, turned out to be just that… jawboning… And the short sellers got together, and said, “Ok, just how is Saudi Arabia, going to stop us from shorting Oil?” Well, at least that’s how I see it happening…  The 10-year got bought overnight and the yield fell to 3.72%… Another huge chunk must have been bought, by someone?   
I have to wonder how all those traders and economists that were touting Japanese yen are feeling this morning, as they look at yen and see trading with a 140 handle… You can’t say I didn’t warn them that the BOJ always disappoints…  
They probably feel like I do, when it come to kiwi… The New Zealand Official Cash Rate is 5.5%, the highest rate in the industrialized world, and kiwi just keeps falling VS the dollar…  Talk about opposites…. 
You know, I’m not a fan of the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… Never have been either… But more so recently, because of their lies and misdirection… Here’s the skinny folks… Inflation is the only way we, as a country, will ever pay down some of our debt, and the Fed Heads know this, but won’t admit it… So, what they do, is pretend that they are out to fight inflation, and then they jerry-rig the inflation reports that show that they are winning the battle with inflation , when in reality inflation is winning, but for the general consensus of people, they believe the Fed Heads are getting inflation down, and that all’s well…  It’s ALL A BIG LIE !    So, you go to the grocery store and you find that $100 of groceries fit in one bag, and you think, “well, this is better than it was last year!”   When in fact it’s not! You’re just rationalizing and believing what your hear on TV that the Fed Heads are winning…   
Inflate away the debt, well not all of it, but a small amount of it, so that it makes a difference… That’s the game, so don’t believe what you hear on TV, read in the paper, about how the Fed Heads are defeating inflation… 
And another lie going around is that the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel will begin to pivot this year and rates will be cut…  I just don’t see that happening…  But even IF it come to fruition, would it be enough to save the U.S. Corporations from filing bankruptcy?  I found this on Zerohedge.com: “One would not know it from looking at the S&P which just hit a 2023 high, but there is a bit of a bankruptcy crisis sweeping the U.S. where companies are filing for bankruptcy at the fastest pace in 13 years, in a clear sign of a tightening credit squeeze as interest rates rise and financial markets have locked out all but the strongest borrowers.

The increase is most visible among large companies, where there were 236 bankruptcy filings in the first four months of this year, more than double 2022 levels, and the fastest YTD pace since 2010 according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.”

Chuck again…  Now that’s some scary stuff, and would have me thinking that stocks are not the place to be going forward, but then I’ve said that for a couple of years now, and, well…  you know… 
Well, after all this time, the folks at the publishing house think they have a work around for responding to the Pfennig…  Here are the instructions: 
Hi Chuck,

We have been trying to fix the situation with your emails and have not been able to work it out… so, 
How about this?

When subscribers click on the email button right after the post, they will get this:
image.png
In my case I click on gmail. then my gmail account opens up. So I fill out your email address, chuck.butler@dailypfennig.com, I include the subject and write up the message and click on send.  
I sure hope that works… it’s been some time now since I saw your responses to my writings… Of course, that could be good, or bad, but responses nonetheless! 
Remember when I told you that Janet Yellen was lying to us about how the country would implode on June 1? I said that they could search the seat cushions on the couches at the Eccles Bldg, and come up with a billion here, there, and soon they would have enough to carry on a few more days?   Well, I guess someone at the Treasury Dept reads the Pfennig, because a few days after I said that, Yellen came out and said that the new “x” data was June 5…  Lies, lies and more lies… The Gov’t just never gets tired of telling lies… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard’s datapalooza on Friday was interesting at best… Durable Goods was positive +1.1%, but that was down greatly from March’s 3.3% gain…  Personal Income was up .4%, and Personal Spending was up .8%… I didn’t see that Spending gain coming… Tax returns spending?   And the PCE inflation data year on year was up .2% to 4.4%…  
Today’s Data Cupboard just has the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) for April… Oh the stupid Consumer Confidence report for this month will print also… I just don’t count this report as having anything to do with the economy, it’s simply a pulse of the stock market… 
To recap… the debt escalation agreement got sent to congress for a vote tomorrow… Chuck points out that the ballyhooed spending cuts , were nothing really…  But the big thing is that spending should be held down going forward, and that will play badly for GDP… I’m just saying… 
For What It’s Worth… This is an article that explains the debt escalator situation, and points out that the rating agency, Fitch, has already downgraded the U.S.’s outlook to negative… This is a good article for everyone to read, and understand what’s going on, and it can be found here: It’s Happening: Fisk Gives Slight Downgrade to US Credit – LewRockwell
Or, here’s your snippet: “My recent big prediction proved true this morning, which was that credit rating agencies will certainly not wait for an actual default on US debt before they start to downgrade US credit. Now, you might think that was an obvious prediction, but you didn’t hear many others warning about it; and US government officials certainly have not acted as if they realize that simple fact, nor said anything about it. So, it is an easy prediction that seems to elude almost everyone! And it is a BIG prediction because today’s news begins the downgrade process that will be devastating if it goes one step further. Today’s staunch credit warning from one of the nation’s big-three rating agencies puts our toes to the edge of the precipice.

This morning Fitch placed a negative outlook on US credit. Fitch did one other thing that was very interesting in light of my own earlier article this week. (See: “Debt Default is Just a Terror Tactic, but it Will Blow up Stocks and Likely a Lot More, Regardless.”) It became the first I’ve seen in mainstream media to admit that failure to raise the debt ceiling does not inevitably lead to a credit default, noting that a default would only happen if the US chose not to prioritize debt payments over other expenses. So, there it is. Someone has finally said it in the mainstream media, though it was entirely glossed over in article linked to in the headlines below.
All talk has been that if we get to Yellen’s X-day in June without a debt deal, then the US will plunge into default, and its credit will be downgraded. The blindness there is nothing short of astounding. Credit agencies won’t even wait for (as I call it) D-day (debt-day) — the day when the Treasury is exhausted just before default or other expense-cutting options that are also being ignored by all. A serious downgrade will certainly happen before default and likely before D-day, even though default does not have to happen even if the ceiling is not lifted. In part, that will be because no one even knows when D-day is. June 1st? June 15th? Credit agencies are not going to sit around and wait to find out.
Nevertheless, back in Washington, Democrats continue to pound the credit default issue, as if that is the only path they can imagine themselves taking if the debt ceiling is not raised; and Republicans, oddly, continue to let them make that message without any rebuttal. Apparently, both sides continue want to raise the worst-case scenario as the only scenario, both willing to put the nation at risk of economic wreckage if they fail to win their battle over the budget by turning this into an ultimatum that sees no outcome to an agreement failure other than default. Even though another outcome, even without agreement to raise the debt ceiling, is easy to see.

Here is one major part of what they all don’t get, as I wrote in my own article referenced above: No matter which way the debt ceiling argument breaks now that it has been dragged out for months, the news is bad for stocks. Finally, today, one market analyst pointed that out, making the same case I did. If the ceiling is raised, a flood of new Treasuries will be issued, pushing up Treasury interest rates up in a situation where the Fed is no longer buying. Bad for stocks. If the ceiling is not raised, US credit will see significant downgrades because, even Fitch notes that it cannot be sure the government will not choose the path of default over not paying other expenses. It doesn’t matter, at that point, if the US doesn’t actually default; the very fact that lawmakers and the Biden admin hit D-day without a deal will prove how reckless with credit they are willing to be and will cause significant credit downgrades because no one trusts reckless managers.”

Chuck again… Deficits don’t matter, right Dick Cheney? Well they do when they have accumulated to $31 Trillion! I thank longtime reader Bob, for sending me this article… 
Market Prices 5/30/2023: American Style: A$ .6542, kiwi .6052, C$ .7464, euro 1.0731, sterling 1.2421, Swiss $1.1089, European Style: rand 19.7229, krone 11.0851, SEK 10.8400, forint 345.34, zloty 4.2198, koruna 22.2079, RUB 80.76, yen 140.25, sing 1.3573, HKD 7.8326, INR 82.69, China 7.0752, peso 17.56, BRL 5.0194, BBDXY 1,243.11, Dollar Index 104.50, Oil $71.32, 10-year 3.72%, Silver $23.26, Platinum $1.035.00, Palladium $1,443.00, Copper $3.67, and Gold… $1,955.00
That’s it for today… only 2 more days of May… Then June will come busting out all over!  The ocean is quite calm today… We’ve seen a ton of seaweed coming in these past few days… My beloved Cardinals are still stumbling around, but seemed to be getting better, inch by inch… And then nearly got no-hit yesterday! UGH!  Our STL City SC won their game on Saturday night… They were outplayed for most of the game, but their counterattack burned the Vancouver team…  The City SC team has the best goalie in the league, for sure!  The Main Ingredient takes us to the finish line today with their song: Everybody Plays The Fool…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

RBNZ Moves To The Front Of The Class…

May 25, 2023

* currencies & metals get sold on Wednesday

* FOMC minutes tell us…. NOTHING! 

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all… My good friend, Rick said it best last night… “Just when we thought the Cardinals had turned the page, along comes Matz” Yes, proving once again that Stephen Matz, was a horrible free agent signing last year, he went out and laid another egg last night, leading to a loss by my beloved Cardinals to the Reds… UGH! Good friend, and former colleague, Suzanne, sent me a text last night, to remind me that she’s a Reds fan…  What a rain filled day here yesterday… Some sun, so they can count it as a day with sun, but most of the day was rain filled…  RIP Tina Turner… We lost Tina Turner yesterday, she was 83, and still dancing… The Hooters greet me this morning with their 80’s song: All You Zombies… 
The FOMC Meeting Minutes, were controversial yesterday, in that on one hand, several regions talked about how they weren’t sure interest rates needed to go higher, while on the other hand, there was no, none, nil, nada mention any rate cuts this year…   The markets have come full circle with their forecasts for rate hikes/ cuts… In the futures trading, 43% chance of another 25-bps rate hike by July, while just last week rate cuts were expected to begin in July… 

The dollar bugs decided that all this confusion was good for the dollar, and the dollar got bought hand over fist yet again yesterday… The BBDXY gained 3 index points on the day, ending the day at 1,244…  The currencies didn’t move much in response, to all the dollar strength, though, another strange day in the currencies…  The price manipulators saw the FOMC Minutes, and decided that it was a good day to short Gold & Silver, and short them they did… Gold lost $18.20 to end the day at $1,958.50, and Silver lost 39-cents to end the day at $23.13…  Apparently, last Friday’s gains in Gold & Silver were a false dawn… I’m at a loss for words to describe how fed up I am with the short paper traders… 
The price of Oil briefly dipped below $74 yesterday, but then rallied back over the $74 figure to end the day. And you think everyone is confused with the FOMC Minutes? well, everyone but the bond boys… The 10-year’s yield rose to 3.76% yesterday… 
In the overnight markets last night…. The dollar got bought some more… This is really getting out of hand, folks… Overbought, and overbought some more… The BBDXY gained 2 more index points overnight, and the euro is taking the brunt of the dollar strength. Gold is up $4 to start the day today… But Silver has slipped below $23 in the early trading. Poor Silver, it just can’t find a bid these days… The price of Oil slipped by $2 in the past 24 hours, and the 10-year is at 3.68% to start the day today… 
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), hiked their Official Cash Rate 25 Basis Points to 5.50% on Tuesday this week… I forgot to mention it yesterday…  This from the RBNZ: “The Committee agreed the level of interest rates are constraining spending and inflation pressure. The OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future, to ensure that consumer price inflation returns to the 1-3% annual target range, while supporting maximum sustainable employment.”
And now having the highest interest rate of the industrialized nations, one would think that kiwi would be on the rally tracks… But, that would have been a blast from the past, the way fundamentals ruled, and interest rate differentials were HUGE in fundamentals!  Those were the days my friend, we thought they’d never end, we’d sing and dance, forever and a day… (Mary Hopkins)  
The RBNZ has told the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, I’ll see your 25 Basis Points, and raise you 25 Basis Points…  And have moved to the front of the class, in regards to interest rate differentials…  I guess when the Fed Heads meet again on June 14, we’ll find out what they have up their sleeve, and if they have something up their collective sleeves, ala Bullwinkle, then it will be nothing!  I’ve come to his point in time, where I do believe that whatever the Fed Heads do or don’t do, it’ll be the wrong thing to do… 
The debt escalator talks continue…  So, I had this thought the other day… And no it’s not political, although it does involve the POTUS…  It is my opinion, that the Elites through the POTUS,  wants to bring the U.S. economy to its knees, so that he can introduce digital currencies, and collectivism finances… So, what if the POTUS isn’t really trying to negotiate an agreement, because a default would play into the elites plans… This is just how I see things… I guess that it’s times like this that I’m glad the Pfennig Replies doesn’t work!  For I know that you can only please 1/2 the people 1/2 the time, and the other 1/2 are going to hate you!  So, please don’t hate me, just because I have an opinion that opposes your opinion… Disagreements are good for conversations as long as they remain civil… 
OK, moving on…  I guess 1 month out on the Treasury yield curve is the place to be… A 1 month T-Bill is yielding 5.83% this morning…  The 10-year Treasury Bond yields 3.68%…  Talk about an inverted yield curve! The problem with a 1 month T-Bill, is that it matures in 30 days, and then you have to put your money someplace else. Sure, you could roll it into another 1 month T-Bill, but who knows what the yield will be 30 days from now?  It could be greatly reduced from buying after the debt escalator talks come to an agreement, or… it could be 10% ( I exaggerate!) from all the selling after the debt escalator talks fail to reach an agreement… But for now, you can’t beat 5.83% in a 1 month T Bill!   Sign me up for a tuck load of those please! Shoot Rudy, 30 days from now I may not even still be around, for no one knows! So, live it up while you can!  Yes, may I have another 5.83% yield for 30 days?   
And the one currency with a gain in the past 24 hours is the Russian ruble… I know, I know, the Russians are the dark side, but the currency is an investment… And you must keep the two things separate…  I’m just saying… 
And we’ve got to keep our eye on the Singapore dollar… After 5 consecutive tightenings by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) the Sing dollar is perking up, and recently reached an all-time high VS the Indonesian ringgit… I know that’s not VS the U.S. dollar, but, when you have these regional currencies, they have to be dominant in their region before they can move VS the dollar… 
And the British pound sterling has lost its luster (remember I told you it would) as inflation in the U.K. is becoming embedded… Headline CPI printed 8.7% in April, higher than any of the 36 estimates from economists or the 8.4% reading forecast by the central bank. Core prices excluding food, energy and tobacco accelerated to 6.8% last month from 6.2% in March. And this is really weighing on poun sterling… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the aforementioned FOMC Meeting Minutes, and a couple of Fed Head speakers out on the road… One Fed Head said that he wasn’t comfortable pausing rate hikes as long as inflation isn’t under control…  So, we have that going for us, that is, as long as the Fed Head is a voting member! HA! 
Today’s Cupboard has the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for last week, and that’s about it for today, but like I said yesterday, tomorrow is a datapalooza… So, you won’t want to have missed that! HA! 
To recap… The RBNZ hiked rates to the highest level among industrialized nations this week, and kiwi can’t find a bid… go figure! The dollar continues to get bought, and this is really becoming an overbought situation… 
For What It’s Worth…. Well, this article come to me from MarketWatch, and while I had it all cued up to be the FWIW article today, Ed Steer then highlighted it in his daily letter this morning, and that solidfied my thought that this is FWIW worthy!  It’s about how investors should switch to Gold from stocks, and it can be found here: Investors should put more money in gold and cash as rally in stocks won’t last, top JPMorgan analyst says – MarketWatch
Or, here’s your snippet: “A top JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst who has been warning clients to stay away from stocks all year is doubling down and advising them to increase their allocations to cash and gold.

JPMorgan Chief Global Markets Strategist Marko Kolanovic advised clients to modestly reduce their exposure to U.S. stocks and corporate debt and up their holdings of cash and short-dated Treasury bills that carry yields north of 5%.
“Even aside from the debt ceiling issue, we maintain that the risk-reward for equities is poor given elevated risk of recession, stretched valuations, high rates and tightening liquidity, and we favor cash over equities at the former’s ~5% yields,” a team led by Kolanovic said in a note shared with MarketWatch.
Kolanovic and his team also recommended traders shift exposure away from crude oil, which has sunk this year on recession fears, and buy more gold, which has rallied since late last year, although it has reversed some of its year-to-date gains over the past few weeks.
Within commodities, we rotate from energy (given recession risks and a potentially fading China growth impulse), to gold following its recent selloff (on its safe-haven demand and as a debt ceiling hedge),” the analysts said.”
Chuck again… While I agree with him on the Gold, but not the Oil position he’s taken… I still believe in Oil, and will continue to do so… 
Market Prices 5/25/2003: American Style: A$ .6521, kiwi .6070, C$ .7349, euro 1.0725, sterling 1.2362, Swiss $1.1038, European Style: rand 19.3383, krone 10.9873, SEK 10.7844, forint 347.38, zloty 4.2037, koruna 22.0293, RUB 79.98, yen 137.60, sing 1.3532, HKD 7.8322, INR 82.74, China 7.0694, peso 17.78, BRL 4.9588, BBDXY 1,246.10, Dollar Index 104.09, OIl $72.84, 10-year 3.68%, Silver $22.97, Platinum $1,026.00, Palladium $1,403.00, Copper $3.59, and Gold… $1,962.42
That’s it for today, and this week of course! The sun is out, and it’s going to be a beautiful day today, I can feel it in my bones! Our STL City SC team will be back on the pitch Saturday night… Hopefully they can follow up last week’s 4-0 win with another strong game. Sleeping at night is becoming an ordeal for me, and then with the lack of sleep at night, I get tired and have to take a nap during the day… It’s a pattern that I’d like to stop soon!  Jethro Tull takes us to the finish line today with their song: Locomotive Breath…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and please, oh please with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

The Dollar Buying Continues…

May 24, 2023

* currencies & metals get sold on Tuesday… 

* Isn’t there a shortage of Copper? 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! No problems in traveling yesterday, other than having to get up to go to the airport at zero dark thirty… Thanks to our friend, Lynn, for driving us to the airport at that ungodly time of the early morning… I said to Kathy, “one good thing about going this early, there’s no traffic!” I then realized that this was the time that I used to get up and go to work, back in the day… Yes, I was nuts! But, by going so early, I could write the Pfennig, and still be ready to trade when the trading bell rung… England Dan, and John Ford Coley, greet me this morning with their song: Nights Are Forever Without You… 
Well, the markets are still disillusioned about everything going on in the U.S. and are still buying dollars… The dollar got bought yesterday, with the BBDXY adding 3 index points, to follow up the 2 index points it gained on Monday, this week… The euro has lost the 1.08 handle, and the rest of the currencies all look very weak, compared with their levels of just two weeks ago… Here’s an anecdote about the U.S. economy… Yesterday, the first lef of our flight had only 65 passengers… That’s the first flight I’ve taken in many years, that wasn’t maxed out with people… Something strange is going on here, and the disposable income that people had has been all spent…  And the reason that’s a Big Deal? Well without consumer consumption, GDP is dependent on Gov’t spending… And we all know that the Gov’t spending, right now,  not what it used to be, because they have maxed out their spending… That’s why we have the Kubuki Theater going on with the debt escalator talks… 
For those of you new to class or skipped to play horse hooky or something like that… I don’t reefer to the current drama as the debt ceiling… I call it the debt escalator, because it only goes up! 
Gold & Silver are still having to scratch and claw for every bid so far this week…  I thought after Friday’s $20 gain in Gold that the Good Witch, Glinda, had given us the “Ok to come back out” sign… And while Gold is up for the week, it’s been a tough row to hoe…  Gold gained $3.90 yesterday, to close at $1,976, while Silver lost 20-cents on the day, to end the day at $23.53…  
The price of Oil jumped higher by $2 and trades this morning with a $73 handle. And the 10-year’s yield touched 3.70% yesterday, but settled in to close at 3.69%…  I think the bond boys see the writing on the wall with the U.S. economy, but that’s one thing you can’t count on, because bonds have been so wishy-washy lately, that you can’t really get an indication of where they are going… 
In the overnight markets last night…  the dollar buying continued, with the BBDXY gaining another index point to start the day today… What’s all this dollar buying about? Right now, the dollar is so overbought, that a short squeeze has probably occurred… When an asset is in an overbought position, the risk is that everyone heads for the exit door at the same time… We’ll have to watch for that.  The price of Gold is up $1 buck this morning, and Silver is getting sold by 15-cents to start the day. The price manipulators just keep making Gold & Silver cheaper and cheaper, thus giving all those procrastinators the opportunity to finally get off their duffs and buy some physical Gold or Silver… I saw the percentage number last week, of how many households in the U.S. actually own some physical Gold or Silver, and I said to myself… “now that’s a number you won’t forget, Chuck, so no need to write it down”… And guess what happened? I forgot the number!  Oh, these senior moments just drive me crazy! Any way, it was a very low number… 
The price of Oil has bumped higher to a $74 handle…  You know, ever since the Saudi’s announced that they were going to wage war on speculators that were shorting Oil, it’s been on the move upward…  And the 10-year is trading with a 3.68% yield this morning… 
Well, another crypto clearing Corp has its hairs in the crossfires… This from Reuters: “The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, commingled customer funds with company revenue in 2020 and 2021, in breach of US financial rules that require customer money to be kept separate, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.”  
Chuck again… it seems these crypto clearing corps can’t keep their hands out of the cookie jar…  And if you are one of the investors that have your funds with them, doesn’t that give you a warm and fuzzy that your funds are safe? Right! They aren’t safe, they are being used to fund who knows what! 
Things are getting out of control finances-wise… I pulled this from Twitter yesterday:
1. Median Mortgage Payment: $2,800

2. Median Rent Price: $1,850
It now costs nearly $1,000/month more to buy a house than to rent.
Meanwhile, the average new car payment is now at $750/month.
The average interest rate on a used car loan just hit a record 14%.
All while credit card debt is set to cross $1 trillion for the first time ever with record interest rates of 25%.

Basic necessities are becoming unaffordable for Americans.

OMG! how do the young folks make it from paycheck to paycheck? I don’t mean just the young folks, but at my age, everyone buying homes, and cars, etc. are younger than me!  Could it be that this younger generation is depending on mom for their house payment, or rent, and the car payment, all the while they have the latest iPhone, eat out all the time, and travel…   makes sense to me, given that these parents of the younger generation, have provided everything for their kids, and not made them go out on their own, and earn a living, career, life… 
Sorry, to go down that rabbit hole, folks, just needed to get that off my chest… 
Remember when I told you about all those folks that were buying Japanese yen, with the thought that the new Bank of Japan chairman would change the monetary policy in Japan, and I said that they should be aware of the fact that the BOJ has continually disappointed the markets… Well, how are those yen buys looking these days? I’m just pointing out their stupidity for not researching and doing the history on a currency and its Central Bank before jumping in with both feet… 
And don’t look now but the price of Copper has fallen out of bed, which leads me to believe that someone, somewhere is shorting the hell out of Copper… I say that because I’ve shown you all the reports of a Copper shortage that is going to occur soon, and that should be pushing the price of Copper higher, not lower… Darn short paper traders… Have I told you lately how much I dislike these guys/ gals? I have? Then good, because they should never be invited to dinner for all the damage they’ve caused in the metals…  I’m just saying! 
Ok, in news that has been held back and not distributed widely… We have 3 continents that have volcanoes erupting… Does that mean anything to anyone? Active volcanoes have prompted ash warnings and set nerves on edge in Italy, Mexico and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Could this be? … nah… don’t go there Chuck, that’s all myths and here say… 
OK, moving on… The U.S. Data Cupboard today, just has the FOMC Meeting Minutes. There’s nothing that should surprise the markets in the minutes, so in reality, there’s no real data to move the markets today… And tomorrow, we’ll see the 1st revision of quarter 1 GDP… And then Friday, will be a datapalooza! Big movers potentially on Friday, so grab a chair and sit back and watch… 
To recap… The dollar continues to defy the odds, and get bought daily… The dollar bugs are really just ignoring all the things mounting up against dollar strength, but I say, go on… have your days… but you’ll be stuck holding dollars that are getting sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair…. I hope you get your rear ends handed to you! 
For What It’s Worth…  Those dastardly banks… Not all banks, but the casino banks… This article came to me from the good folks at GATA, and its from a BBC story of banks that rigged interest rates, and it can be found here: Interest rate ‘rigging’ evidence ‘covered up’ by banks – BBC News
Or, here’s your snippet: “UK and US regulators were told of a state-led drive to “rig” interest rates in the 2008 financial crisis, but covered it up, evidence indicates.

Documents suggest lenders sharply dropped their interest-rate estimates after pressure from central banks.
Evidence was not shown to juries at the time when bankers were jailed for smaller-scale interest-rate “rigging”.
Regulators said they had followed disclosure rules, declined to comment or in one case rebutted the claims.
Some evidence has previously emerged of Bank of England and UK government involvement in manipulation of interest rates. But the evidence indicating it was part of a broader, international drive not just by the UK but by central banks across the western world to push key interest rates down in October 2008 has never been published before.
The evidence indicates that in October 2008, central banks including the Bank of England, the Banque de France, the European Central Bank, Banca d’Italia, Banco de Espana and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York intervened on a large scale in the setting of Libor and Euribor.

At the height of the 2008 financial crisis, when bank lending had almost ground to a halt, central banks around the world urged calm. But my investigation reveals evidence that, behind the scenes, they were pulling levers to restore calm artificially – measures which would later be ruled to be against the law in the UK.”

Chuck again… need I say more about the casino banks?  And wait until you see what good friend, Dennis Miller, has in his www.milleronthemoney.com letter next week, about the derivatives these casino banks have… AYE, AYE, AYE…. 
Market Prices 5/24/2023: American Style: A$ .6598, kiwi .6165, C$ .7407, euro 1.0786, sterling 1.2456, Swiss $1.1102, European Style: rand 19.1855, krone 10.9450, SEK 10.6071, forint 347.93, zloty 4.1560, koruna 21.9754, RUB 80.10, yen 138.32, sing 1.3457, HKD 7.8360, INR 82.69, China 7.0329, peso 17.96, BRL 4.9726, BBDXY 1,242.73, Dollar Index 103.75, Oil $74.12, 10-year 3.68%, Silver $23.28, Platinum $1,039.00, Palladium $1,430.00, Copper $3.59, and Gold… $1,976.52
That’s it for today… Back in the saddle down south for a few days… But the weather forecast for the coming week is rain every day… UGH!.. Oh well, I sat out on the balcony and watched the Cardinals win their game VS the Reds last night, with the ocean in the background… As Eric Clapton sang: Let It Rain… I love to watch the rain storms out on the ocean… Everything was just fine when we arrived, no problems, no fix its that needed to be done, now that’s what I call convenient!  And the car started! without assistance from AAA!  So, it’s all good down here in the South… Cardinals won last night, after losing in 10 innings on Monday night… They shoudn’t have lost that game on Monday, and it was a hiccup toward their goal getting back in the pennant race… Eric Burdon and the Animals take us to the finish line today, with their song: We Gotta Get Outta This Place… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

 

Someone Put An End To This Bad Drama, Please!

May 22, 2023

* Currencies & metals had a very long ugly week… 

* Debts, defaults, Collapse, what else can go wrong? 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! What a fabulous weekend, weather-wise here in the middle of the country! Friday, was rainy and cold, but Sat & Sun were Chamber of Commerce Days… We celebrated grandson, Braden’s 12th birthday yesterday… I don’t know where the time goes… When I was a young man, days seemed to last forever, and now that I’m old, the days fly by…  Last Thursday night, my beloved Cardinals hit 7 home runs in a game! The last time that team did that was 1940!  It was a great night for sitting outside and watching them smack one home run after another… Credence Clearwater Revival greets me this morning with their song: I Put A Spell On You… 
I wish someone would put a spell on the debt escalator negotiators to end this Kabuki Theater B.S. and raise the debt ceiling, like we all know they will do in the end… No more drama, no more people fretting that the whole world as we know it will end, if the U.S. defaults, etc. etc.  Just do the dirty deed, and get it over with, now!  And as far as attaching spending cuts for future years, that too is B.S…. There is no guarantee that those spending cuts ever come to fruition… So, why waste your time coming up with them now?  
Ok… last week was an absolute nightmare for the currencies and metals… The dollar got bought like funnel cakes at a State Fair, and the short paper traders romped and danced in the streets, bringing Gold & Silver down to levels the two had passed months ago, and now will have to get up off the floor and go back to work at moving ahead! The BBDXY started last week at 1,219… And end the week at 1,239…  The euro held on to the 108 handle, but its been a real slog for the currencies to retain any semblance of value…  
Gold began last week at $2,024, and ended the week at $1,978… (and that was after a $20 gain on Friday!) Silver really cracked, starting the week at $25.65, and ending the week at $23.93 (and that was after a 34-cent gain on Friday too) So, in those numbers you can see the effect the short paper traders had on the metals…  So… what caused the sudden change in the direction in the metals on Friday? 
Well… if you ask me, I’ll tell you that I believe the short paper traders had reached the downward level they were looking for, and bowed out of the trading pits on Friday…  So, c’mon all you Central Banks, sans the U.S., and step up to buy your physical Gold & Silver now that the price is back down…  And don’t act like you’re surprised to see Gold & Silver so cheap… For it was you that initiated the engineered takedowns last week… Wipe that smirk off your faces! We all know who was behind these takedowns…  (at least Chuck and the Pfennig readers know who was behind that trading, as far as the rest of the world, I can’t vouch for them, they all seem to be mesmerized by all the selling last week)
Last week I wished for the good witch Glinda to arrive, and I do believe she made an appearance on Friday, telling us it’s all ok, that we can come back out now… 
In the overnight markets last night… there was little to no movement in the dollar, currencies, or metals…  Gold is down $1 to start the week, while Silver had given up 10-cents, so basically they are flat to start the week. The BBDXY starts the week at 1,237.10, and the price of Oil is steady Eddie with a $71 handle.  The 10-year’s yield continues to ratchet higher, and it start the week at 3.66%… 
This rise in the 10-year’s yield is a reflection of the debt escalator Kabuki Theater going on… You can put yourself in the place of a 10-year Treasury holder and all you hear about on a daily basis, is how the U.S. could default… You’d get in line to sell your U.S. Gov’t Bond too…  No reason to hold on to something that could be worthless, or worth pennies on the dollar…  I’m just saying. 
But like I said above, there’s no, nil, nada, zero chances that the U.S. will default, this time that is…  And the “x” date that Treasury Sec. Yellen keeps yapping about? It means nothing, folks… I’m sure the Treasury Sec. will find cash stuffed away in couch cushions in the Eccles Bldg. to keep the counry running while the negotiators continue to play out this bad drama… 
Well, haven’t I been telling you for some time now that inflation is sticky?  Here’s Fed / Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell last week: “The data have continued to support the FOMC’s view that bringing inflation down will take some time.”  When asked why there was a difference betwen the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s chart that shows no rate cuts this year, and the markets viewpoint that there will be at least two rate cuts this year…  Powell, was quick to respond with:  “simply a different forecast” where the market expects inflation to come down more quickly, perhaps due to a significant downturn.”
 
That brings me to the question that I would have asked Powell after that last statement… “Chairman, are you suggesting that the Fed Heads are not expecting a significant downturn?”   And if not, why?  And if you don’t mind me adding, “please don’t tell me you thought all along that you could deliver a soft landing!” 
 
I love being the journalist in the room of these interviews with the dolts that run our country… I read somewhere this past weekend that we had a day recently where we had a record amount of Businesses filing Chaper 11 in a day…  Didn’t hear that on the evening news, eh? Why would you? the media is so deep down the rabbit hole of protecting the Gov’t that they would never report something like that…  But shouldn’t you, the tax-payer, be the first to know stuff  like that?  What does that mean? What does it mean for my investments?  
 
I fear that this record set in one day, will be passed by a wide margin in the coming days, weeks, months, etc.  and think about how many individuals are on the brink of filing Chapter 11?  They had their rent, car payment, student loan, and refi loan, all put on hold for 18 months, and now the lenders are playing catch up, and these individuals are being hit with a Big Wave of payments that need to be made, that they didn’t save for, didn’t prepare for, and now what will they do? 
 
Across the pond, in the Eurozone, things just keep getting worse for the Eurozone economy… Inflation doesn’t seem to be softening, and the only thing that has been good for the Eurozone, has been mother nature, in that, the winter never materialized as a dark winter for Eurozone. But just because they dodged that bullet, doesn’t mean they’ll continue to dodge bullets… They are stuck in the middle of the U.S. waging war using Ukraine to fight Russia…  Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with you!  (Steeler’s Wheel) 
And China’s reopening hasn’t been the stuff that grand openings are made of… Sure there was some economic growth, as GDP was over 4%, but there’s been no follow up… And all their attention has been shifted to all the saber rattling with Taiwan… 
So, we have the three major economic regions all reeling, stumbling, fumbling their respective ways toward a huge collapse… A new World Order will then begin, and the whole financial set up will be centered on Gold… So, I’ll ask the question once again… Got Gold? 
That’s when China comes to the table and passes a note to the U.S. and Euroozone, with their Gold holdings number on it, and the U.S. & Eurozone, faint!  Remember what you parents taught you, years ago… He who has the Gold, rules… 
There’s little to be excited about in the U.S. Data Cupboard to start the week… And we won’t see anything worth a plug nickel until Wednesday, when the FOMC Meeting Minutes are printed… And then on Thursday, the second reading of first QTR GDP will print… for those of you keeping score at home, the first reading was 1.1%…  That’s tenuous at best folks… that could be turned around to a negative number very easily… And I’ll add, it if it weren’t for the Gov’t spending, the number would already be negagive…  I’m just saying…
To recap… it was a very long and ugly week for the currencies and metals last week.  I do believe we finally saw Glinda the good witch come floating in and tell us that all was clear, and we could come back out now, on Friday, so we’ll see if that actually happens as we start the week. Inflation is sticky, and even the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman agrees with Chuck on that!  Corp bankruptcies are begining to add up.. where is is this going to take us? Got Gold? 
For What It’s Worth… a few weeks ago, good friend, Dennis Miller, and i were talking on the phone, and discussing the plight of SVB Bank  and their collapse… We both decided that if the bank had Capital Reserves that they would have ben able to withstand the run on the bank… Long ago and far away, the leaders of this country decided that Banks didn’t need reserve capital any longer…  I still believe that even just a 10% reserve would have helped these failed banks… And then I saw this articla on Bloomber.com that talked about this very thing, and it can be found here: Fed’s Kashkari Argues for Much Higher Capital to Bolster Banks – Bloomberg
Or, here’s your snippet: “Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said bank capital requirements should be lifted significantly to help backstop financial institutions against distress.

“Having significantly higher levels of capital is our only chance to build real resilience in our financial system,” Kashkari said in an essay published Monday on the Minneapolis Fed’s website. “I urge us to have the courage to take the hard path and address the underlying fragility of the banking sector.”
The push for higher capital requirements come amid US banking-sector strains that saw the collapse of several regional lenders this spring, including that of Silicon Valley Bank in March.

Fed officials have said they are watching to see by how much banks tighten lending conditions following the episodes, though Kashkari made no explicit comments about monetary policy in his essay.”

Chuck again… This Neil Kashkari is a loose lug nut on most things, but he’s bang on with this… 
Market Prices 5/22/ 2023: American Style: A$ .6641, kiwi .6289, C$ .7406, euro 1.0823, sterling 1.2455, Swiss $1.1168, European Style: rand 19.3272, krone 10.8911, SEK 10.5150, forint 346.29, zloty 4.1741, koruna 21.8774, RUB 80.7, yen 137.97, sing 1.3449, HKD 7.8249, INR 82.84, China 7.0284, peso 17.87, BRL 4.9884, BBDXY 1,237.10, Dollar Index 103.09, Oil $71.58, 10-year 3.66%, Silver $23.83, Platinum $1,078.00, Palladium $1,519.00, Copper $3.70, and Gold… $1,977.13
That’s it for today… RIP Jim Brown… the greatest running back I ever say play football…  Well, the light switch for my beloved Cardinals just have been found and finally turned on, because they are playing baseball like I thought they would coming out of Spring Training… Their last 4 series, the took 2 of 3 from Cubs, 3 of 3 from Bosox, 2 of 3 from Brewers and 3 of 4 from Dodgers… They are still 7 games under .500, but if they can keep this momentum going, that should be their next goal…  Ok, so no Pfennig tomorrow, I’ll be on a plane at zero dark thirty…  my new chemo has me being quite tired easily, and sleeping alot.. I figure if that’s all I have to deal with, then so be it!  Now, as long as it works!  Our STL City SC soccer team won Saturday night 4-0! I went from the Baseball game to the soccer match on watching them on TV… Emerson, Lake and Palmer take us to the finish line today with thier song: Still You Turn Me On… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Looking For The Good Witch…

May 18, 2023

* Currencies & metals get whacked this week… 

* What’s up with Copper?  I’m glad you asked! 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, it was a fairly nice evening last night, so I sat outside to watch my beloved Cardinals play the Brewers. I was joined by good friends Duane and Paul, and we rooted the Cardinals on to a victory. The Cardinals seem to have turned the corner, and it couldn’t have come at a better time! 
The Big Bad, Big Spending, Dodgers come to town for 4 games, This will tell if the Cardinals have indeed turned things around… My bloodwork at the oncologists’ office  yesterday, showed no problems from the new chemo, so far… So I have that going for me, eh? Bob Dylan greets me this morning with his song: Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door
I’m glad I had a day to sit on what I would have said about Tuesday’s engineered takedown of Gold & Silver, yesterday… But I’ve had a day to cool down, and be more civil about talking about the short paper traders… Why? I have no idea for I abhor these short paper traders with all of  strength.. The took Gold down $27 on Tuesday, and they took Silver down 34-cents… The short paper traders didn’t even wait to see if Gold & Silver were going to start the day up… The short paper traders started their engineered takedown from the get-go on Tuesday… 
The dollar on Tuesday was up, with the BBDXY showing a plus 2.56 index points on the day. The dollar followed that gain on Tuesday with another on Wednesday of 2 index points in the BBDXY. The euro has not garnered one bit of love from the ECB’s rate hike last week, and if the euro isn’t booking any gains, the rest of the currencies, for the most part, aren’t booking any gains either! I always call these days, when everything seems to be against a dollar rally, but you get one anyway, Days that the dollar bugs know in their heart of hearts that the future of the dollar looks grim, so they build it up and build it up, so that when the selling does start, it starts at a higher level… 
The price of Oil stealthily move higher to a $72 handle on Tuesday, and ended up being the star performer on the day… The 10-year Treasury’s yield is climbing again… The Fed Heads can’t have that… You see, the Fed Heads have a banking crisis on their collective hands, and the main reason for the banking problems has been bank runs on deposits… Well, if bond yields are rising, and banks are paying very low interest rates, guess where the deposits are going to go? to the higher yielding account. And so the Fed Heads can’t have the Treasury yields looking so attractive… I’m just saying… 
In the overnight markets last night…  Oh heavens have mercy! The dollar bugs are dancing in the street right now, laughing and singing songs about how the dollar is the king… All hail the King! The BBDXY is up 3 index points to start our day today… Why all this dollar buying when there are so many questions about the future of the U.S. Empire, and its currency?  Well, I guess you could say, that the dollar is like a star that’s burning out and that star will burn its brightest right before it burns out… This could take awhile folks, so I suggest you hunker down, close the hatches and only look out if you think you might want to take advantage of these cheaper prices in currencies and metals… 
Speaking of metals, Gold is down again this morning to start the day, today its down $6… Silver is getting whacked again and opens the day down 32-cents… UGH! I do believe the short paper traders have achieved thei goal, which was to scare the living daylights out of every potential buyer of metals, so that they take their money and go home, and forget about diversifying their investment portfolio… But what about the Central Banks? Aren’t they still buying large amounts of physical Gold?  You know what? My spider sense is tingling again… So, here’s the thought that’s racing through my brain right now after typing that last sentence…   Who’s to say that it isn’t the Central Banks directing the bullion bsnks to get the price of Gold & Silver down, so that their upcoming purchases of the metals are at cheaper prices? 
Hello? Yes, is this the Bank of Canada? Yes, how may I assist you? Well, this is JPMorgan and I’m returning your call to me, I assume you need for me to short Gold & Silver some more, to really achieve a  cheaper price to buy, is that correct?  By George, you’ve got it Governor!    Yeah, I’m seeing this happening as I write, in my head that is… None of this is fact, it’s all what I see happening in my brain… Hey, wait a minute here, didn’t your brain not have any blood in it when the blood clot caused your strokez And shouldn’t that have whacked your brain, so that you don’t think straight any longer?  Well, yes, and no… So, I’m not going to blame my weird thoughts on my stroke… I had these before the stroke, and I’ll continue to have them… So there! 
Where’s Glinda the Good Witch when we need her? She could float in, and tell us the wicked witch is dead, and that it’s ok to come out, and buy metals again…  
There was more selling in the 10-year overnight and this morning its yield is just a tick below 3.60%… If you skimmed over the letter today and missed the part where I talk about how this rising yield is causing the Fed Heads sleepless nights, you might want to back track and read it…  And Oil is still inching higher this morning… wishy-washy trading remains in Oil… I’m just saying… 
Many years ago I wrote a piece for the defunct Currency Capitalist, a monthly newsletter issued by the Sovereign Society, and in that piece I wrote about how China was signing currency swap agreements with countries, that would remove the dollar from the terms of transaction with each participating country. I know I’ve told this all before, but in case anyone missed class those days…  I said then that this was nascent at the time, but if China continued on with their quest to gain a wider distribution of their currency, this was the way to do it, and after a couple of years, when everything in China was shut down,  China is back and this time, not just going after the low hanging fruit, but instead going after the Bigger Boys of trade… i.e. Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and others… 
And now there’s this news: “The Standard Chartered Renminbi Globalisation Index (RGI), the UK bank’s proprietary measure of international yuan usage, rose 26.6 per cent in 2022, topping the 18.5 per cent growth recorded in 2021, Standard Chartered said in a recent research note.”
So, their plan is working, folks… And soon China will have the widespread use of their currency, that is one of the requirements of a reserve currency… China’s bond markets still have some catching up to do, but I wouldn’t put it past them to hustle up some bond guys to show them how, and then that’ll be the end of that problem! 
Just thinking ahead folks… Before I was a currency trader, I was a foreign bond trader…. And for a period of time I did both jobs! (bet you didn’t know I was a multi-tasker, eh? )  And so I can see exactly how the Chinese could go about enlarging their bond capabilities, very quickly!  For those of you who have been around the block a time or two, my recall when Deutsche Bank (DB) decided many years ago, that they would expand their banking into the U.S. and the way to do that was to go head first into Wall Street… It didn’t take DB very long before they were doing bond deals like they had always been in the business!  How did DB do that, I hear you asking? 
Ahhh, grasshopper, come sit… DB hired a big time bond slinger to come in and bring his crew, and start building their capital markets division… Soon, they were up and running… I see China taking a page from DB playbook on this… 
And we knew this day was coming… Earlier this week, it was reported that, the US government now has to spend more each year on servicing its immense debt burden than it spent on national defense in 2022.the US government now has to spend more each year on servicing its immense debt burden than it spent on national defense in 2022. Now, that’s just rediculus, if you ask me… Right now, no new debt can be issued, unless there is a maturing debt to offset the new debt… The days are getting shorter for the Gov’t folks involved in gettng the debt escalator to go higher… And in the middle of negotiations, the POTUS, left D.C. and went to Japan… So apparently he doesn’t care if the country defaults… UGH!
OK, the U.S. Data Cupboard on Tuesday had April Retail Sales… and even though the BHI was correct, the report was positive .4%, the economists that looked at the report were not impressed… Apparently they thought that tax returns, and spring sales would boost Retail Sales higher…  Industrial Production, in April,  was up .5%, after spending a couple of earlier reports either flat or negative… 
Yesterday’s Data cupboard  just had some housing data Building permits, and Housing starts… And both were up slightly…  And today’s Cupboard as the usual for a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… This data last week showed a huge jump upward in Claims… Wel have to see it that was a one an done, or will we continue to see higher claims numbers each week? 
To recap… The dollar is getting bought, and Chuck thinks he knows why… Gold & Silver saw an engineered takedown on Tuesday, and followed tht up with more losses yesterday… The price of Oil has jumped higher by $2 this week, and the 10-year’s yield is rising, and Chuck explains how that has to be making the Fed Heads sweat a little… 
For What It’s Worth… Earlier this week I carried on about how the short paper traders were shorting Copper, when there was a supply issue with Copper, and had asked my economics professor to explain his theory of how supply and demand determines price… Of course I didn’t really ask anyone, that question, but I still don’t get it… And this article from Bloomberg, talks about how there is a Copper problem in Chile, and it can be found here:

Or, here’s your snippet: “André Sougarret won global acclaim in 2010 as the chief engineer on a rescue of 33 Chilean miners who’d spent more than two months trapped 2,300 feet underground. Now, as chief executive officer of Codelco, he must attempt another difficult feat: digging the world’s No. 1 copper producer out of its current hole.

At the state-owned behemoth, output is running at its lowest in a quarter century, costs have surged, and profit has slumped—all at a time when Chile’s government needs more money to fight festering inequalities and the world needs more copper for batteries and electric grids as it transitions away from fossil fuels.
Codelco’s production is down by about a fifth from only six years ago. After a double-digit-percentage drop in 2022, it’s expected to fall as much as 7% this year, to 1.35 million metric tons.

Ore quality is deteriorating around the world as existing deposits are depleted and new ones are more difficult and costly to develop. “There’s no easy mining left—not in Chile nor the rest of the world,” said Sougarret at a shareholders meeting on May 2.”

Chuck again… and for those of you keeping score at home, Copper’s price has fallen to $3.69, when just two years ago it was at $4.25…   And during these last two years, the supply continued to drop, and the outlook for more supply dropped…  So… Where’s the investigative journalism when you need them to look into this? 
Market Prices 5/18/2023: American Style: A$ .6651, kiwi .6255, C$ .7438, euro 1.0841, sterling 1.2483, Swiss $1.1131, European Style: rand 19.2279, krone 10.7751, SEK 10.4483, forint 341.40, zloty 4.1725, 
koruna 21.8376, RUB 79.91, yen 137.57, sing 1.3420, HKD 7.8275, INR 82.35, China 7.0031, peso 17.60, BRL 4.9287, BBDXY 1,236.56, Dollar Index 103.12, Oil $72.93, 10-year 3.59%, Silver $23.53, Platinum $ 1,073.00, Palladium $1,474.00, Copper $3.70, and Gold… $1,976.26
That’s it for today… An absolute beautiful Chamber of Commerce Day here yesterday, that followed 4 days of rain and tunderstorms… The fact that those rainy days were over, was enough to make the emergence of the Sun yesterday a cause for celebration! The Critics haven’t liked Season 3 of Ted Lasso, but to me, it’s been just as good as the first two Seasons… Good thing I’m not a film critic! Well, next week, will be my grandson, Braden’s 12th birthday, and we will celebrate his birthday this weekend, since my wife and i won’t be here next week!   Have I told you lately that I love my oncologist? She is super with me, and I love her attention to detail… And as long as she sees to it that I stay alive, she’ll always be number 1 in my book! The Buckinghams take us to the finish line today with their 60’s song: Mercy, Mercy, Mercy…  The Buckinghams were a Chicago group, that recommended the band: Chicago to the record producer!   I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow… We’ll talk again on Monday… until then, please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

The U.S. Gov’t To Buy 3 Million Barrels Of Oil?

May 16, 2023

* currencies and metals get whacked in the overnight markets

* Work less, get paid the same… The new mantra… UGH! 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! What in Tar Nation happened to the Cardinals bat last night, it was as if they came alive all at once, and scored 18 runs! And for once in a Blue Moon, the Cardinals starting pitching didn’t stink! Well, that was quite a display of baseball, as it should be”, or at least what I was expecting after watching them in 14 games in Spring Training! After their slow start, it’ll be a long haul back into the pennant race, but maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, the Cardinals have turned the season around… We shall see, eh?  
The day was strange yesterday, with rain all around us… I sat outside as much as I could, and in the 6th inning last night I called it a night outside…  10cc greets me this morning with their song: I’m Not In Love… 
The dollar saw some selling yesterday, with the BBDXY losing 4 index points along the way… The euro, sterling, Swiss all saw some selling too, which was stranger than fiction in my book… Gold gained $5.10 on the day to close at $2,017.20, and Silver actually found a bid at gained 13-cents on the day to regain the $24 handle, and close the day at $24.18… Picking up the pieces of all the broken parts from last week’s engineered takedown by the short paper traders of these two metals… The short paper traders didn’t confine their selling short to just Gold & Silver, last week, as Copper got dragged across the hot coals… China announces that they are shutting down a Mongolian Copper mine, temporarily, and Copper loses value… So, tell me again, Mr. Economics Professor, how that supply and demand equal price? 
The price of Oil gained $1.50 yesterday after it was announce that, well, I’ll let Bloomberg.com tell you what was announced: “The US is soliciting bids for up to 3 million barrels of sour crude oil to refill its depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “
 
Chuck again… Hmmm… now why would you as a Gov’t need to buy 3 Million barrels of Oil now? Oh, that’s right, you released millions of barrels of Oil in a political move previously, now didn’t you?  And what did that get you in the way of votes? I’m curious… C’Mon, you can tell me, I won’t tell anyone else.. What? you are accusing me of having my fat fingers crossed behind my back?  Ok, you’ve got me on that, because if you would tell me I would indeed tell the world what you admitted to doing!  
 
In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar was sold a little more, with the BBDXY showing a 1 index point loss, but we’re not seeing the weakness in the BBDXY showing up in strength of the major currencies… The only currency to not suffer some lost ground in the past 24 hours is the Mexican peso… So, knowing that alone should tell you how screwed up the currencies are this morning!  And I don’t know what’s going on yet this morning, with Gold & Silver… Gold is down $12, and Silver is down 30-cents to start the day today, and that looks to me to be a bit overdone, so we’ll see if there is any rally in these two today.  There was a minor slippage in the price of Oil overnight, and the same in the yield of the 10-year Treasury… 
 
I just don’t get why this is happening… the dollar is weaker, but so are the currencies that offset the dollar, I don’t know if I’ve ever seen something like this in my over 30 years of observing currencies… So, there you go! 
 
Yesterday, I talked a lot about how the dollar is seeing a flight from it, and that flight is increasing in speed, every day…  And now we get all the dramatics from the theater located in the Beltway, as McCarthy and the Potus finally meet again to argue over the wording of the agreement that will come in the 11th hour to save the economy, and then they’ll want/ demand that We the People, all treat them as the heros that they they, in their respective feeble minds, believe they so richly deserve… 
The Conservative leaders have proposed a budget that would require spending cuts, but that has been rejected by the liberals…  Here’s the skinny on the spending cuts… They were to be taken in future years…. And who’s to say that anyone will remember that fact, when those years come along?  
The publisher at the Dollar Collapse.com site, Bob Rosenthal, had this to say about the meeting:
“Biden and McCarthy are set to resume “Debt Ceiling” talks.

It’s all Kabuki theater, because whatever they “agree” on…
Out-of-control money printing and insane spending will continue.
And the destruction of the US dollar will continue.
Most of us now are feeling the pain of a declining standard of living.
And it’s clear the worst financial disaster in history is upon us.”
Chuck again… I think he nailed it Governor! The only thing missing is a question: Got Gold? 
And you know how I’ve told you about how Productivity in the U.S.  has been falling… of course the Plandemic didn’t help things, but beside that productivity was falling before that “debacle” and has continued to fall after. And now I read this on Reuters this morning: “Could your company increase productivity by cutting staff hours but maintaining their pay? Welcome to the four-day week movement.”  Isn’t that the wrong way to go about this? But who am I to question the propeller heads in the Gov’t?  HA!    The 4-day work week was invented by me… And it’s mine, not to share! How dare they infringe on my 4-day work week!   Darn youngsters… They see someone like me going around free as a bird on Fridays, and think that’s what they want too…  I just think that, if you want to make the economy work better, you need to put your head down, and go to work, and not quit until the job is finished, and then start another job… Work hard, play hard… That was always my motto… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Empire Region Manufacturing Index and it printed a negative -31.8 for May… Uh Oh… The second quarter sure isn’t getting off on the right foot, now is is?  Today’s Data Cupboard has the April print of Retail Sales… I already told you yesterday that the BHI indicated that April would be a strong month for sales, given it was also the Easter Holiday spending month…  We’ll also see Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization both for April.. .And if the Empire report tells us anything, these two reports will be struggling at best to print a positive number for the month… 
To recap… The dollar got sold yesterday, but the euro, sterling and Swiss all saw selling too… Chuck says that’s stranger than fiction… The Debt talks resume today, now doesn’t that news just make you want to stop and know each detail that comes from the meeting? Oh, I guess not… I know I sure wouldn’t want to be stuck in those meetings!  Dollar Collapse calls it all Kabuki Theater… Gold was up yesterday, and Silver finally found a bid! Something strange is going on with Copper… Hmmm…. 
For What It’s Worth… Well, you know the U.S. Credit Balance (read debt) was up Big Time in the last reading, ($177 Trillion in QTR 1) and now those debts are becoming a problem, as delinquencies rise on payments on the debt… And that’s what this article is all about and can be found here: US Households Show Signs of Stress as New Loan Delinquencies Rise – Bloomberg
Or, here’s your snippet: “US households showed signs of increasing financial stress in the first quarter, with credit card balances not declining in the way they typically do at the start of the year and delinquencies rising for most types of consumer loans.

Households added $148 billion in overall debt, bringing the total to $17.05 trillion, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday. Balances are now $2.9 trillion higher than just before the pandemic.

Consumers typically build up more credit-card debt at the end of the year, during the holiday season, and then reduce those balances at the start of the following year, sometimes with the help of tax refunds. But for the first time in 20 years, that wasn’t the case this year, suggesting some households are under strain from higher prices and may be relying on credit cards to maintain their spending.”

Chuck again… I don’t think for one minute that consumers not paying off their credit cards in January “suggested” that households are under stress… I believe that it TELLS us that U.S. households are under stress!  
Market Prices 5/16/2023: American Style: A$ .6687, kiwi .6247, C$ .7426, euro 1.0887, sterling 1.2523, Swiss $1.1188, European Style: rand 19.06, krone 10.6626, SEK 10.3535, forint 339.09, zloty 4.1232, koruna 21.7608, RUB 79.96, yen 135.85, sing 1.3366, HKD 7.8384, INR 82.21, China 6.9666, peso 17.45, BRL 4.8935, BBDXY 1,226.53, Dollar Index 102.36, Oil $70.97, 10-year 3.48%, Silver $23.78, Platinum $1,063.00, Palladium $1,513.00, Copper $3.70, and Gold… $2,005.92
That’s it for today… I’m ready for summer… This spring has been a normal spring, with some warm days, followed by chilly days, a little rain, and when the sun goes down, it’s downright chilly outside… Now, it’s time for the weather to change to warm all the time, and I’m ready for that! We opened our pool last week, and the grandkids all had fun in the pool on Sunday… To see them there more often this summer brings a smile to my face! ! One week on the new chemo, I’m more tired than previously, but so far no stomach problems… In June it will be 16 years that I have lived with cancer… When I slipped on the hill in the back yard, 16 years ago, and the pain wouldn’t go away, was nature’s way of telling me something was wrong, and for sure cancer had spread from my kidney to my right femur…   The Band Spririt, sings the song Nature’s Way, and it always get me emotional..  The Beatles take us to the finish line today with their love song: And I Love her…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!  Oh! I almost forgot!.. no Pfennig tomorrow, I have to go to the hospital and see my oncologist regarding the new chemo… So, I’ll see you again in space, on Thursday! 
Chuck Butler

The Flight From The Dollar Speeds up…

May 15, 2023

* currencies & metals get whacked on Friday… 

* No AM radio? That sounds very fishy to me! 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! A wet and rainy weekend is what we had here in the MidWest this past weekend, but we needed the rain, so no complaining from me… I hope that all the moms out there had a marvelous Mother’s Day, and that your kids thanked you for doing the most important job in the world… You know, I believe that I received traits and guidance from both my parents, but my mom… She ALWAYS supported me… And for that I’m very thankful… My beloved Cardinals come home after winning 5 of 6 games in Chicago and Boston. Have they turned it around? We’ll see!  The Temptations greet me this morning with their song: I Wish It Would Rain… 
Well, Fridays seem to be the day of the week that the short paper traders like to flex their muscles… Last Friday saw the BBDXY gain 6 index points! Where’d all that dollar buying come from?  It certainly isn’t coming from foreign nations… And most U.S. investors are seeing the writing on the wall for the dollar.. That leaves the U.S Gov’t as the sole buyer of dollars, using their Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF)…  So, now we have the U.S. Gov’t predominating the GDP numbers with their spending, and propping up the dollar… in the Church Lady’s voice: Now, isn’t that special?”  
Gold lost $4.10 on Friday, which wasn’t as bad as the whacking that Silver has been taking lately, with Friday’s loss at 21-cents…  Just 10 days ago, Gold was closing in on $2,100, and Silver $27… Friday’s close for the both these metals were $2,011.54, and $24.04… that’s crazy folks… There was nothing, absolutely nothing, say it again, absolutely nothing that changed in those days that brought Gold & Silver back down… So, it was up to the short paper traders to do the trick… And they did, they suceeded, now if they would only go away, not go away mad, just go away, and never darken our doorways again! 
The price of Oil is so wishy washy these days… One day, the supply problems cause the price to rise, and the next day the slowdown in the Gobla economy cause the price to fall… Friday, the price of Oil ended the week trading with a $70 handle… I’m still a believer that all the negativity that the Gov’t is throwing at fossil fuels these days is going to come back and bite them in the you know what…  The U.S. Gov’t is trying to kill the Goose that laid the Golden egg… And I just don’t get it… Oil is what made the U.S. the great economic engine it was… And now the Gov’t wants to get rid of Oil? … I shake my head in wonderment as to how they got where they are, being so full of doltness… 
The 10-year Treasury’s yield ended the week at 3.46%… Talk about wishy-washy… You know that the 10-year’s yield is used to price mortage rates, right? So… the Gov’t can’t have 4% and higher yields, which translate to 6+% mortgage rates…  So, I know that the Fed Heads say that they are out of the bond buying business… But I do believe they had their fingers crossed behind their backs when saying that! … I’m just saying
So, everything is manipulated these days… Isn’t that a shame…  Why can’t markets be left alone to trade,  and let the chips fall where they do?  Rhetorical question, I know… but when a thought crosses my mind, you know my fat fingers start typing the thought! 
In the overnight markets last night… There hasn’t been that much activity, the dollar has slipped a little bit, with the BBDXY down 1 index point as we start the day and week today… Gold is flat to start the week, but Silver continues to get whacked, and this morning, Silver has lost the $24 handle!  Silver is down 8-cents to start the day.. UGH! The price of Oil is steady Eddie with a $70 handle, and the 10-year’s yield has ratcheted up to 3.50% to start the day today… What are the bond boys thinking this week? They go from one stance to another in recent weeks, and it drives me crazy, because these are not the bond boys that I grew up in the markets with… That’s a discussion for another day…  The main question for the week is: “Have the short paper traders finished with their whacking of Gold & Silver, or is there more to come?”  I would like to think tht it’s over, for now… But then I’m always an optimistic person… I said that last part with a smile like the Cheshire Cat!  
Well, recent reading by yours truly, has me believing that the flight from the dollar is picking up steam and velocity… Those are two things you don’t want to see if you’re a dollar holder…  Here’s a snippet from an article on zerohedge.com, “It’s a gigantic snowball all over the world. We cannot even keep up

with it”, Pepe Escobar said in an interview with the New Rules
podcast.
“It’s very important what is going to be discussed at the BRICS summit
in South Africa. This will probably be the crossroads moment where
things are going to then go.”
Escobar explained that a growing number of countries in the Global
South were doing the math and concluding that the US dollar was not a
safe bet. The combination of aggressive US sanctions policy and
reckless government spending has dramatically reduced the greenback’s

international appeal.”

So, it appears to me that the dollar’s only friend, right now is the PPT and their ESF treasure chest… How much longer can that last? I don’t know, but considering how many times in the past 3 years, the PPT has spent their ESF money, I can’t believe it can go on much longer…  I say 3 years, becuase it was 3 years ago, that the dollar heading south, and I thought we could be in for a long term downward trend for the dollar, only to have it all turned around by the PPT and their ESF… And there have been quite a few instances in the past 3 years, that would lead someong observing the markets to believe the dollar’s strong trend was over… Only to be corrected by the PPY and their ESF…  Last week was the latest example of how the PPT pulled the dollar out of the fire once again…  
The PPT uses thier ESF as an intimidation factor, much like Robert Rubin used to remind traders that “a strong dollar is in the best interests of the U.S.”… Every time he would repeat that phrase, the dollar selling would be stopped in its tracks… Of course this was more than 20 years ago… Today, they don’t need a phrase, Robert Rubin, or anyone else for that matter, to pull the dollar out of the fire… They have the ESF instead… 
Remember the old saying” Throwing good money and bad things”?  Well, that’s what the PPT is doing, but then one would question the term “good money”, when talking about the dollar…  I’m just saying…
And it’s not just dollars… I’ve been telling you that China and Japan haven’t been showing up at the auction window for Treasuries like they used to, and longtime reader Bob, sent me this link: Inter-Imperialist Rivalry: China Is Cutting its U.S. Treasury Bond Holdings – RCIT – Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (thecommunists.net)
And here’s the gist of the article: “According to the latest data published by the U.S. Administration, foreign states are increasingly reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds since the beginning of the Ukraine War. [1] In total, foreign holdings declined from $7703.6 billion (February 2022) to $7343.6 billion (February 2023), i.e. by minus 4.7%. (See the Table in the Appendix)

It is particularly remarkable, that the two largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds – Japan and China which held a combined 30.3% of all U.S. Treasury bonds by February 2022 – reduced their share even more. Japan cut its holdings from $1303 to $1081.8bn (-17.0%) and China from $1028.7 to $848.8bn (-17.5%). Britain, the third-largest foreign state which currently has a share of 8.8% of all foreign holdings, slightly increased its holdings in the same period from $627 to $643bn.”

Chuck again… when you hear that China and Japan is backing off their Treasury purchases, you say, show me! Well, that’s what I just did!
Let’s shift gears here now, and talk about the Debt escalator that only goes upward… I’m not falling for that calling it a Debt Ceiling, as there is no “ceiling” to it, instead it’s an escalator that only goes upward!  But until the Congressmen and women working on this come to an agreement, we have this that I found on Bloomberg.com: “The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement Friday that it had just $88 billion of extraordinary measures to help keep the government’s bills paid as of May 10.

That’s down from around $110 billion a week earlier and that means that just over a quarter of the $333 billion of authorized measures are still available to keep the U.S. government from running out of borrowing room under the statutory debt limit.”
So, what you’re telling me Bloomberg, is that those “extraordinary measures” that the Treasury has been using to pay bills during this debacle, are now running out? No wonder the flight from the dollar is picking up steam! 
Doesn’t the term “extraordinary measures” have a eeiree sound to it? So, what do you believe the Treasury is taking from to fund Yellen’s “extraordinary measures”?  I don’t know, since the Social Security System funds have already been raided years ago, with only IOUs in place… I can’t think of another Gov’t Entity that would fall under the umbrella, that requires them to fund the Gov’t in case of emergencies… 
The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked rates last week to 3.75%, still way behind the rate of inflation in the Eurozone, but at least the ECB heads said that there would be more rate hikes…  To repeat what I reported last week, the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates last week, with both mentioning that if inflation remains high, that more rate hikes would be coming… 
So, here’s the scenario folks… The Eurozone, England, Australia, New Zealand, (they’ll be hiking rates at their next meeting) are all seeing their interest rate structures rising, while here in the U.S. they are fading…  Now, back in the day, that would mean that you buy the currencies from the countries with higher interest rate possibilities, and sell the ones that don’t… So, dollar’s would be exchanged for euros, sterling, A$’s, and kiwi…   But that’ was “back in the day” when fundamentals ruled… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard last week went into the weekend limping… The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims shot higher to 264,000 from 242,000 the previous week. I kept telling you that eventually we would see this data set’s numbers go higher, and it looks like they are finally reacting accordingly… PPI (Wholesale inflation) showed a drop in the monthly and annual numbers, which to me looked awfully suspicious of being tampered with… I’m just saying… 
This week’s Data Cupboard is lacking today, but tomorrow will have the April Retail Sales, from which the Butler Household Index (BHI) indicates to me thta April’s number will not be negative, as March’s was… And we also has the Easter purchases in April… 
To recap… The dollar got saved once again from falling off cliff by the PPT and their ESF… Chuck wonders how much longer this can go on, when considering the number of times that the PPY has used the ESF in the past 3 years… The ECB hiked rates last week, joining the BOE And RBA as Central Banks hiking rates and talking about hiking them more… Chuck thinks about back in the day when fundamentals ruled!
For What It’s Worth…. I made a big deal out of the countries with rising interest rate structures Vs the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, and then I saw this which goes into the Fed heads “pause”, and it can be found here: David Stockman on the Federal Reserve’s “Great Pause”… And What Happens Next (internationalman.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “Every headline in the financial press earlier this week says the same thing. The Fed’s “Great Pause” has now commenced.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point—and could be done.
Well, they might be done “raising” rates, but they shouldn’t be in the rate setting business—up, down or sideways— in the first place. That’s because market capitalism doesn’t work if financial asset prices are being pegged artificially and falsely by a 12-man monetary politburo rather than the vast throng of suppliers and users of funds in the global marketplace.
Here is the madness that rate pegging has led to over the last 22 years.
To wit, the Fed has made overnight money so ungodly cheap that it has distorted, tortured and twisted the very warp and woof of the entire financial system. All financial asset prices have been drastically falsified because 221 months of negative carry costs in real terms have triggered reckless leveraged speculations, rampant options chasing and dangerous financial asset arbitrages like never before.
Alas, none of this is stable or sustainable. So here we are with another day in which the stock market is open, and like clockwork a new batch of regional banks are hitting the skids.

Now that a consequent cyclone is ripping through the small banking sector, this supposedly warrants a Fed pause, and then a sharp reversal to rate cuts during the second half of the year and unto 2024. In fact, the market is anticipating approximately 180 basis points of rate reductions from the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year and the first half of next year.

But that would truly be another case of Einstein’s famous definition of insanity—doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. The truth is, all three interest rate cutting sprees since the turn of the century—2001-2005, 2008-2011 and 2020-2022—were not remotely warranted. As shown in the first chart above, they simply drove real interest rates deeply underwater and caused the US economy to become submerged in excess debt, speculation and macroeconomic instability.”

Chuck Again… Yes a pause would be a HUGE mistake, and in my opinion, would allow inflation to run rampant but… don’t let that thought get in the way of a good excuse to pause… 
Market Prices 5/15/2023: American Style: A$ .6851, kiwi .6330, C$ .7471, euro 1.0947, sterling 1.2607, Swiss $1.1217, European Style: rand 18.7567, krone 10.5571, SEK 10.2280, forint 338.97, zloty 4.1407, koruna 21.3704, RUB 76.11, yen 135.27, sing 1.3327, HKD 7.8311, INR 82.01, China 6.9213, peso 17.72, BRL 4.9877, BBDXY 1,230.49, Dollar Index 102.51, OIl $70.78, 10-year 3.50%, Silver $23.97, Platinum $1,065.00, Palladium $1,540.00, Copper $3.76, and Gold… $2,011.96
That’s it for today… A very rainy weekend here with some periods of sun and warmth… I got chased inside two days in  row, when storms blew in while I was outside watching the games…  Hey! did you hear the news that U.S. Car Makers are no longer putting AM radios in their new cars?  Now, you don’t think that they’re doing this to shut down the radio networks out there confronting the Gov’t?  Nah… that can’t be, or could it? My spider sense is tingling, folks, that’s all I’ll say about that!  Stranger things have happened, eh?   Well, I made smash burgers on my new Blackstone grill for 10 people yesterday… Lots of fun! I made myself breakfast on the griddle Saturday morning… Well, next week I head to S. Florida again… So, no Pfennig on Tuesday as it will be a travel day for yours truly… Just a short two weeks trip down to take care of some business there… I’m tolerating my new chemo so far, so good… Now, I’m just wondering if it’s doing anything!  I always thought that the worse the medicine made you feel the stronger it was at taking on your problem!  Uriah Heep takes us to the finish line today with their song: Stealin’ …  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

Dragging The Line…

May 11, 2023

* currencies & metals are mixed on Wednesday

* Bank of England hikes rates 25 Basis Points… 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! A bad night for my beloved Cardinals last night at Wrigley… They won 2 of 3 there, so it was not as bad as their recent series had gone… They head to Boston for a weekend series against the BoSox… Man was ever dragging the line yesterday, I couldn’t believe that it was the new chemo already interferring with my wanting to live a life! I guess it had more to do with my lack of sleep during the nights recently… I once knew a guy that could get on just fine with only 3 hours of sleep a night… Not me, I need my 8 hours or I’ll be dragging the line like I did yesterday!   This coming Sunday, is Mother’s Day… I know that I’ve said this before, but I sure do miss my mom, especially now that I don’t feel great… She would tell me it will be all ok tomorrow… I used to add a poem about Moms at the end of the Pfennig, but not this year.. Radiohead greets me this morning with their song: Karma Police… 
Well, the dollar continued to get sold yesterday, especially after the stupid CPI report for April printed… The BBDXY lost 3 index points yesterday…  The Gov’t bean counters tried to tell us that overal consumer inflation is 4.9% annualized…  Ahem… what about these inflation numbers?  Food is up 7.3%, Electricity is up 8.4%, and Transportation is up 11%… Do any of those rhyme with 4.9%?  Oh and then there’s John Williams at shadowstats.com who computes inflation the way it was calculated before all the hedonic adjustments were added, so pre-1990…   His inflation calac, was 8.4%, and again that doesn’t rhyme with 4.9^… But the markets being the fish that they can be at times, took the Gov’t report, swallowed it, hook, line and sinker! 
So, the thought on the day was that inflation is cooling and the Fed won’t have to hike rates again… Last week it was determined that the Fed Heads would have to hike rates again, becuase the Employment Numbers were still considered strong (Again, trumped upward by 378,000 jobs from thin air by the BLS) Hey! you’ve got to hand it to the Gov’t they sure know how to get people thinking that all’s OK…  I’m just saying.. .
So, Gold lost $4.40 yesterday  and the selling was by the big lunkers that thought inflation is cooling…  I’m surprised that the short paper traders didn’t pile on and give Gold a good old fashioned whacking! Silver also lost ground yesterday by 21-cents… Gold ended the day at $2039.85, and Silver ended the day at $25.47… The selling of the dollar had nothing to do with the currencies performance yesterday… 
Did you hear about a currency that I never talk about… The Turkish lira? This currency has gone the way of the Argentine peso, and now the Gov’t is trying to prevent a dual currency market, like they have in Argentina… A recognized market and a Black market…  The reason I talk about this now is that these are banana republics, but further down the scale then the U.S.  But, could we, one day, have a dual currency market?  Boy, things would really have to deteriorate badly from here… And then maybe that’s why the Gov’t is so convinced that issuing digitial currencies they fear things going really bad from here, and don’t want a Black Market for dollars! 
OK… I really went off on a wild tangent there, didn’t I? That kind of stuff would never happen to us here in the U.S., right? 
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar has seen some buying to offset the selling of the previous sessions… The BBDXY is up 3 index points to start our day today…  Gold is up $4 to start the day, while the boys in the band have gone to whacking at Silver again, with the metal down 46-cents to start the day… This has got to stop, folks… Write your representiative in Congress, and tell him/ her that this short selling of Silver has got to stop!  You might want to include my thought of what I would do here if I were King… And that is 1. Banks and Brokerages would only be allowed to enter sell trades for the amount that they held in the company’s portfolio… And they would be required to deliver that amount of the sale on maturity of the sell contract.  2. and any entity caught manipulating this would go directly to jail, not pass Go, and definitely not collect $200… 
The price of Oil is hanging on to the $72 handle, for now… I had to laugh this morning, when I looked at the energy sector on line, and saw these two headlines on Bloomberg.com 
  1. Oil advances as Traders weigh inflation trends and Supply Halts…
  2. Oil slips as U.S. Crude stock rebulid offsets nascent demand uptick…
Now, which one are we as investors supposed to believe? See how messed up and mixed up these markets are these days? Lends me to believe that they are all going to go up in smoke eventually… 
Long time friend, Bill Bonner, has been writing about how he responded to a request from RFK Jr, asking Bill what he sees that got us in this mess…   For many years now, we as a country have had to deal with the shenanigans that the Gov’t gives us to deal with… So, Bill, being the master wordsmith, summed it up with 2 reasong for our mess today and they are: “First, between 1968 and 1971, gold was removed from the US currency. For the first time, dollars could multiply much faster than the things they could buy.  Second, in the 1990s, the Fed began manipulating interest rates to boost asset prices. These two moves destroyed America’s prosperity.” – Bill Bonner at www.bonnerprivateresearch.com 
Chuck again.. Yes, and don’t forget how instead of being a country that made things that the world wanted, we became a financialization country, where moms didn’t tell their boys to grow up to be cowboys, they told them to grow up and be a hedge fund manager!   Now, all those years of being deralic and allowing other countries to make the thins we wanted, we’re saddled with rising inflation, a dollar teetering on the edge of  a cliff, and a goofy Central Bank that has painte itself into a corner.. Inflate or die… 
And debt… Oh My, do we ever have debt… And watch, when the debt celing is raised for the 79th time in a couple of weeks, the debt will explode higher, from all the pent up spending that’s been put on hold…   No wonder the folks at the debt Clock.org, have our debt soaring to $42 Trillion in just 4 short, high school years…   The debt servicing is becoming a real problem, just ask California!  And our debt will be the death of our Empire..  I’m just saying…
Oh, I’m full of seashells and balloons this morning aren’t I? See what happens when I don’t get my 8 hours of sleep! HA!  And I’m not the only person bemoaning the debt… Here’s quote from Stanley Druckenmiller: “‘Never in history has a booming economy produced a worse fiscal result”… Think about that for a minute, and then wonder what this would all look like IF we had stayed on the Gold Standard all these years?  The U.S. wouldn’t have thousands of multi-millionaires, nor hundreds of Billionaires… Our economy would be manufactured driven, We would run a  Budget Credit nearly every year, and not every kid in American would be able to go to college, instead they would enroll in trade schools, etc.   Now, doesn’t that sound more like it was in 50’s and 60’s and to some extent into the 70’s? 
I know, you’re saying, C’Mon Chuck, you’re a child of the 60’s, no wonder you think that was better than what we have today!   You betcha that’s right! And they were!  
I could go on for hours on this subject, but I won’t because I’m still dragging the line this morning! 
The Bank of England (BOE) hike rates 25 Basis Points to 4.25%… Still below the inflation rate, in case anyone is wondering… 
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the aforementioned Stupid CPI…  And today’s cupboard will have the PPI for April, (wholesale inflation) and the Core CPI.. which will be stupid too… In addition, we’ll also see the color of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… which have been ratcheting upward each previous week… 
To recap… The dollar got sold yesterday, because traders believe that CPI is cooling and therefore will not be a need for the Fed Heads to hike rates further… Chuck points out that inflation in food, electricity, and transportation are at levels that nowhere near the stupid CPI results…  Chuck loves that Bill Bonner is a part of the Pfennig today… And Chuck still lives in the 60’s folks.. .go ahead and ridicule, but that’s how his mind works, and there’s no changing him now! 
For What It’s Worth… Well, I started today’s letter mentioning digital currencies, and then I came across this article on CNBC.com that talks about one of the Fed Heads, talking about how she’s not so sure a digital currency is best for consumers… And that article can be found here: Fed Governor Bowman casts doubt on the need for a U.S. digital dollar (cnbc.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed skepticism over the possibility of a digital U.S. dollar, noting Tuesday the multiple risks such a system could impose.

A central bank digital currency (CBDC) could intrude on the privacy of users and harm the banking system while providing few benefits that aren’t otherwise available for banked and unbanked consumers alike, Bowman said in a speech.
“We must ensure that consumer data privacy protections embedded in today’s payment systems continue and are extended into future systems,” she said in prepared remarks at Georgetown University.

Bowman further noted “the risk that a CBDC would provide not only a window into, but potentially an impediment to, the freedom Americans enjoy in choosing how money and resources are used and invested.”

However, the speech mostly noted counterarguments. For instance, she said fewer than 5% of U.S. households are without a checking or savings account, and most of that group is voluntarily unbanked.

“Approximately one-third cited a lack of trust in banks as the reason for not having a bank account,” Bowman said. “I think it is unlikely that this group would find the government somehow more trustworthy than highly regulated banks.”

Chuck again….  Well, that’s all fine and good, but I get the sneaky suspicion that she drew the short straw and was sent out to throw a shadow on the digital currency process, so that people will not be up in arms too early… 
Market Prices 10/11/2023: American Style: A$ .6731, kiwi .6339, C$ .7471, euro 1.0949, sterling 1.2607, Swiss $1.1217, European Style: rand 18.7562, krone 10.5571, SEK 10.2280, forint 338.97, zloty 4.1407, koruna 213707, RUB 76.11, yen 135.70, sing 1.3278, HKD 7.8311, INR 82.01, China 6.9243, peso 17.72, BRL 4.9871, BBDXY 1,222.44, Dollar Index 101.83, Oil $72.57, 10-year 3.39%, Silver $24.96, Platinum $1,105.00, Palladium $1,596.00, Copper $3.83, and Gold… $2,033.96
That’s it for today and this week… A BIG Congratulations to my oldest son Andrew, who lead his water polo to the Final Four after an exciting OT winner in the districts… Andrew has led his tea to the Final Four a few times in the past, which is quite the accomplishment for a Public School! So, Sunday is Mother’s Day… I mentioned it above, but wanted to make sure all the moms out there read it! I’ve really been putting my new Blackstone griddle to good use this week, I even made myself a sausage/ Cheese, egg breakfast sandwich on the griddle this week!  I then fired off a text to my former, little Christine, who back in the day, would stop at McDonalds every Thrusday on her way to work, and buy sausage/ cheese/ egg McMuffins for the trading desk… I financed that treat each week… But I sent her a text telling her what I made, and then said, but it isn’t Thursday!  HA!   Robert Plant takes us to the finish line today with his song: In The Mood…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and that all you moms out there have an absolutely grand day on Sunday!  Please everyone, remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler

The Dollar Looks Tired, and Worn Out…

May 10, 2023

* currencies & metals see small rallies overnight

* Now, What’s Chuck saying? You won’t want to miss this! 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, my beloved Cardinals made it 3 in a row last night, it wasn’t easy, as our pitcher tried to give the game away several times before finally being pulled… The Cardinals hit 3 home runs last night, all with the bases empty… They had men on base nearly every inning, but not when the home runs were hit! UGH!  Another Chamber of Commerce day here in my little river town, it was warm.. not hot, just warm, and just how I love it! We need a rainy day here in my region, as the ground is quite dry… I did my part, with a raind dance out in the back yard last night, of course when no one was looking! The Moody Blues greet me this morning, with their song, that we used to play in the band I was in: Never Comes The Day…  
I have to hope that never comes the day that we see folding money disappear… But, I’m afraid, that’s a done deal, unless someone unseats the current POTUS and deep sixes the stupid idea…  Ok, Chuck let’s not start today walking on the fine line of Politics… 
The dollar was up 2 index points in the BBDXY yesterday, nothing to write home about, but up, when I would think that by now most traders are on board with the thought that the Fed Heads rate hikes are nearly over…  But then, the currencies don’t trade on fundamentals any longer, it’s all about trader sentiment, and until that trader sentiment is truly on board to sell dollars… The dollar will hang around… 
Gold was up $13 yesterday, and has gone higher just about every day this month, sans the day the short paoer traders saw to it that Gold took a whacking… Central Bank buying of physical Gold is off the charts folks… And the report I read yesterday was that a majority of their buying was done in secret… You know why they are buying physcial Gold right? They see what’s going on in the world, and are scaredy cats…  And you know why they want some of their buying to be secret, right?  They don’t want to p-off the Fed, and the U.S. Gov’t, and their precious dollar.. But the cat is out of the bag, and now everyone that wants to know, knows that Central Bank buying is off the charts, and should tell you that you too should be following their example, for if they are this scared, you should darn well be too! 
Silver actually found a bid yesterday, and gained 4-cents… It’s been one rainy day after another rainy day for Silver in recent trading sessions… I saw an interview with an associate, Rick Rule, yesterday, and he talked about how Silver, right or wrong, is a speculative metal… That it’s so volatile, but when it rallies, it out performs Gold on a percentage basis… During the commodity bull market that ran from 2000 to 2014, just short of the average 17 years that historically commodity bull runs lasted, Silver outperformed Gold on a percentage basis  10 of those 14 years…  So, what I’m trying to say here is that you should look to buy Silver when it’s being sold daily, like recently, and then hold in your speculative portion of your investment portfolio… 
The price of Oil remained trading with a $73 handle yesterday, and the 10-year saw its yield rise to 3.50%… 

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar was on the selling block, but there weren’t many takers, and the BBDXY lost about 1/2- index point overnight… Gold is up $5 to start the day, but Silver is down 4-cents… The dollar continues to hang on, but in my mind (Lord save us!) I see this as a prelude to a long term weak dollar trend… There’s just too many bad things mounting up against dollar strength…  Here’s one that I think is going to end up being a BID DEAL for the U.S. economy and the dollar’s future… “Some economists have noted that traditionally the quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey is not a major report that is highly followed. However, many have been waiting for this report to gauge how badly the banking crisis has impacted the banking sector.

The sting of Monday’s report was diminished slightly as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell quoted the report’s view of tightening credit markets in his press conference after the central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points and shifted its monetary policy to a more neutral stance.
According to the survey, “Survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to large and middle-market firms as well as small firms over the first quarter. Meanwhile, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories.”

Looking ahead, the survey also shows that banking officials expect to see a challenging year ahead.”

Chuck again, I found that on Kitco.com… The writer also believes that this new development is going to be good for Gold, and I agree… 
There’s not alot going on today, so far… well, the Trump court decision came through yesterday, that’s been taking up a lot of news time lately… The talk of the $1 Trillion Platinum Coin is getting a lot of talk, but they are all barking at the wrong tree here… This won’t work, unless they can convince the masses of people that they have the Platinum to back up the coin… And they don’t, as I showed you yesterday… Just saying…
So, with not much going on, let’s head to the Big Finish and call it a day, eh? Short-n-Sweet! 
The U.S. Data Cupboard has been lacking any real data to start the week, and as far as I’m concerned it will remain lacking real economic data today… However the markets still get giddy about the stupid CPI, and so that’s what’s on the agenda today, the stupid CPI…  The report will be for April, and is expected to show a .1% gain in inflation month to month… The annualized CPI will be around 5.0%, and that’s a crock of….  There’s no way on earth that inflation is this country is only 5%!   I’ll be checing on John Williams’ calc of inflation at www.shadowstats.com I’m sure his number is bang on! 
To recap… The dollar is still hanging on and is begining to look very tired, and worn out… That’s why Chuck came out with his view this morning that he believes the dollar is getting ready to enter into a long term weak trend… There! He said it! So, what will you do about that?   In 2001, when Chuck wrote the white paper titled: The Decline of the Dollar, he was laughed at, and ridiculed… And then in 2002, what happened? The dollar began a long term weak trend that lasted 10 years!  No white paper from me this time, as I’ve chronicled all the things brining the dollar to its knees in this fine piece of financial journalism… The Pfennig!   HA! As If! 
For What It’s Worth… This is another article about the U.S. Gold holdings, and what could be done to help the debt problem, but wont’t be the end-all for our debt problems that’s for sure! And it can be found here: “Weird Gold Trick” Could End Debt Ceiling Showdown – The Daily Reckoning

Or, here’s your snippet: “Right now, the Fed’s gold certificate values gold at $42.22 an ounce. That’s obviously not anywhere near the market price of gold, which, again, is about $2,042 an ounce.

Now, the Treasury could issue the Fed a new gold certificate valuing the 8,000 tons of Treasury gold at $2,042 an ounce. They could take today’s market price of $2,042, subtract the official $42.22 price and multiply the difference by 8,000 tons.
I’ve done the math, and that number exceeds $500 billion.
In other words, the Treasury could issue the Fed a gold certificate for the 8,000 tons in Fort Knox at $2,042 an ounce and tell the Fed, “Give us the difference over $42 an ounce.”
The Treasury would have over $500 billion out of thin air with no debt. It would not add to the debt because the Treasury already has the gold. It’s just taking an asset and marking it to market.
It’s not a fantasy. It was done twice. It was done in 1934 and it was done again in 1953 by the Eisenhower administration. It could be done again. It doesn’t require legislation.

Would the government consider the gold trick I just described? All I can say is don’t count on it.

 

You shouldn’t expect it to happen because no one in power wants to recognize the role of gold as a monetary asset. They don’t want anyone to even talk about gold, except as a “barbarous relic” that belongs in the dustbin of history.”
Chuck again… Yes, that’s the reason, just like the Gov’t is behind the price manipulators, keeping the public in the dark about the reason they should own Gold… The dollar’s intrinsic value is zero… 
Market Prices 5/10/2023: American Style: A$ .6751, kiwi .6327, C$ .7471, euro 1.0949, sterling 1.2667, Swiss $1.1217, European Style: rand 18.7562, krone 10.5571, SEK 10.2280, forint 338.99, zloty 4.1407, koruna 21.3707, RUB 76.11, yen 135.27, sing 1.3278, HKD 7.8311, INR 82.01, China 6.9243, peso 17.72, BRL 4.9877,  BBDXY 1,221.44, Dollar Index 101.74, Oil $72.87, 10-year 3.50%, Silver $25.59, Platinum $1,050.00, Palladium $1,425.00, Copper $3.83, and  Gold… $2,050.32
That’s it for today… Another sleepless night in my river town for yours truly… I guess I’m going to have to find a nerve specialist and find out more about neuropathy… I made it through the night without any problems from the new chemo, so that was good… But one night doesn’t make a pattern… just saying…  Paul McCartney takes us to the finish line today with his song: Every Night… (one of Paul’s solo best, in my opinion) I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourslelf!

Chuck Butler

General, We Can’t Leave Until The Jeep Is Charged Up1

May 9, 2023

* Currencies & metals see very light volume on Monday

* California defaults on bond payment… 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!   Well, my beloved Cardinals finally won a series opener last night in Chicago… Talk about cold… It was only 49 at game time, and the wind was howling! It was a tight game all the way through, but for once the Cardinals’ pitchers didn’t give up a big inning to the opposing team!  It was a beautiful day here in my little river town, and I sat outside to watch the game last night, the first time it has been warm enough for me to do so at night!  I’m on schedule to received my new chemo drug today, so tomorow morning might not be so groovy for me, but I don’t know, so why worry?  The Babys greet me this morning with their song: Every Time I Think of You…  John Waite was the singer for the Babys, before he went solo… 
Well, yesterday, was a strange day for the markets… The dollar didn’t really move much, but the euro fell below the 1.10 handle once again. Gold rallied by $6, but Silver lost 14-cents on the day… The volumes for both metals were quite soft, so the price action in the metals yesterday, was subjected to the lack of volume.  Ever since Silver rallied over $26 last week, it has seen nothing but selling, mostly selling short, but selling nonetheless… Silver closed the day at $25.64, and Gold closed the day at $2, 022.20   You know, there are so many articled out there drifting through the internet, that asks the question, “why isn’t Gold moving with a higher price?”   If they only read the Pfennig once in a while, they would know that the price manipulators are keeping a lid on Gold for now… So, what that does for you, the prospective buyer, is keep Gold at a price that’s reasonable, before it explodes higher…  I’m just saying… 
The price of Oil slipped a bit yesterday, but retained the $73 handle… And the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose again yesterday, and ended the day with a 3.50% yield… 
In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar is getting bought, and the BBDXY is up 2 index points as we start our day today.  But this buying doesn’t look like it has legs, and therefore I’m thinking that it will turn around  as the day proceeds. With the rest of the major currencies in the world all in rate hiking cycles (sans Japan) and the U.S. nearing the end of their rate hike cycle, the tables will be turned on the dollar going forward… And the only thing to keep the dollar from doing a Wylie Coyote, and running off the edge of the cliff, will be the PPT and their Exchange Stabilization Funds…  Gold is up $10 to start the day today, while Silver is still trying to find a bid, and is down 12-cents in the early trading today… With no data to look at and keep their minds off of price manipulating, the short paper traders seem to be milling around, wondering if they are still viable… At least that’s what I think they are doing! But just because they are that way (in Chuck’s eye), doesn’t mean they are going away for good… the wolf is always at the door… 
The price of Oil slipped a buck in the last 24 hours, and trades this morning with a $72 handle, and apparently there is still buyers out there buying the 10-year Treasury, as the bond’s yield dropped a bit to 3.48% overnight… I have to think that Oil’s slippage came courtesy of the announcement by the currency Gov’t regarding the end of gas powered cars in the military… I’ll talk more about that in a minute… hold on, don’t go anywhere, it’s coming… 
Well, did you hear that the state of California, defaulted on a bond payement? not much was heard about this on the TV last night, and only folks like me that report on stuff like this see them, because… The Gov’t keeps tellins us the economy “is just fine”, and “strong”… my place where the sun doesn’t shine!  Homeless encampments are sprouting up all over the country… Does that sound like the economy is “just fine” or “strong”?   
Too much debt… it will be the cause of tears for everyone that holds debt in the coming years… I’m just saying…
Did you hear this news?: Suzano SA, the biggest producer of hardwood pulp, is considering selling its products to China priced in renminbi… Just another chink in the armor of the dollar, folks, and lately those chinks are getting to be gashes! 
 
And, I have a book here that’s title: Contra Krugman… And in it they detail all his stupid thoughts and then give the Austrian Economics view of his thought and how he was so wrong…  Well, they need to reprint the book and add a new chapter… 
 
from Markets Insider: “A $1 trillion platinum coin could prevent the US government from defaulting on its debt without making inflation worse, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman.

The idea behind the coin is for the Treasury to use its authority to mint platinum coins and create one with a face value of $1 trillion that gets deposited at a Federal Reserve account to pay bills while lawmakers remain deadlocked on lifting the debt ceiling.”

 
Why don’t they just make a tractor and say it’s worth is $1 Trillion? And they could display it in the lobby of the Eccles Bldg…  Bill Bonner had a note on this in his bonnerprivateresearch.com letter yesterday, here’s Bill: “Just to make it easier for us to understand… forget the coin. Let’s just say the feds could deposit one trillion worth of palladium in the Treasury. At today’s prices, that would be about 1,024 billion ounces of palladium. But according to the LBMA there are only about 20 million ounces of palladium in existence. Which is why it is valuable; it’s rare. The US Treasury could neither find that much palladium, nor afford to pay for it. So that won’t work.”
 
Chuck again… no, it won’t work, for Krugman isn’t suggesting that the Fed Mint a $1 Trillion Platinum coin, he’s suggesting that they mint any metal and say it’s worth $1 Trillion… What a stooge! I can’t call whether his Moe, Larry or Curly Joe, or Shemp! 
 
The things that people will come up when they have backed themselves into a corner, that is to either inflate or die…    
 
And in another blunder of all blunders… Did you hear that the Potus is going to ask Congress to pass a law that all military vehicles be electric by 2030?  Man, if the military men in charge don’t push bsck on that one, I wouldn’t trust a military vehicale in the future, so it’s a good thing I’m too old and broken down to be in the military!  I saw that news in Dave Gonigam’s 5 Minute Forecast yesterday… 
 
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has their Official Cash Rate at  5.25%, and they meet on 5/24… With inflation in NZ at 6.7% I would expect the RBNZ to hike rates again, and once again pull ahead of the interest rate offered by the U.S. dollar…  I think that kiwi traders have the same idea I have about the next meeting, and that’s why kiwi has been stealth-like in its move higher, but this past week kiwi moved past 63-cents…   
 
I’ve always liked kiwi, and the RBNZ… They haven’t always done the right thing, in my opinion, but if they did do the wrong thing they worked at getting it right, immediately… 
 
Some Big Banks are going out on the limb and calling for the Japanese yen to rally… They think that once the Fed Heads decide to cut rates, will be the time to buy yen… I’ve told you before what I think of Japan and its currency… I’m not changing horses in the middle of the stream… I still think Japan is a basket case, with a real demographics problem… 
 
The U.S. Data Cupboard today has nothing for us but a couple of Fed Head speakers (Jefferson & Williams) … Like I told you yesterday, the Data Cupboard won’t have anything for us until tomorrow, and then it’ll be just the stupid CPI! 
 
To recap… The day was strange, in that Gold gained, Silver lost, The BBDXY dollar index didn’t really move much, and the euro lost ground on the day… There’s all kinds of things to talk about this morning, and Chuck has highlighted the ones that he thinks are the most important… 
 
For What It’s Worth… Don’t say it’s true, please don’t say it’s true… This article is interesting, and it’s about subprime auto loans, being defaulted on… Sound familiar? Well, of course car loans aren’t of the size that housing loans were, but… it’s still not good, and it can be found here: Auto loan delinquencies grew in 2022, largely among subprime borrowers (usatoday.com)
Or, here’s your snippet: “Borrowers with low credit scores are falling behind on their car loan payments as inflation eats away at consumer spending power.

A report from Cox Automotive found 1.89% of auto loans in January were “severely delinquent” and at least 60 days behind payment, the highest rate since 2006.  
Another report from S&P Global Ratings published last month says more than 6% of payments on subprime loans – those typically offered to people with lower credit scores that come with high interest rates – were at least 60 days late at the end of 2022. It was the highest December level since the credit rating agency started tracking in 2000.
“I think we’re starting to see the stress on the consumer,” said S&P credit analyst Amy Martin. “Not only are (subprime loan delinquencies) higher than pre-pandemic levels, they’re higher than December of 2008.”
“They got hit with a double whammy,” Martin said. “The subprime consumer is being impacted to a great extent by inflationary pressures, and their vehicle loans are not as affordable as they had been in the past.”
Chuck again… And once again I ask the question… Does this sound like an economy that’s “just fine” or “strong”?   
Market price 5/9/2023: American Style: A$ .6765, kiwi .6338, C$ .7473, euro 1.0975, sterling 1.2614, Swiss $1.1205, European Style: rand 18.4259, krone 10.5393, SEK 10.1817, forint 338.19, zloty 4.1596, koruna 21.1276, RUB 77.47, yen 134.85, sing 1.3264, HKD 7.8414, INR 82.04, China 6.9228, peso 17.79, BRL 5.0110, BBDXY 1,221.83, Dollar Index 101.53, Oil $72.42, 10-year 3.48%, Silver $25.52, Platinum $1,079.00, Palladium $1,569.00, Copper $3.82, and Gold… $2,032.53
That’s it for today… Man did I have an awful night of sleep, or better yet, lack of sleep… The nerve pain in my foot was awful. I recently bought some salve that kind of helped with the pain for a couple of nights, and then not so much last night.. And Tylenol is up against a mightier opponent… UGH!   No doctor appts this week… Whew! They were starting to add up… The good news from the scan last week is that there were new signs of cancer in my body… the bad news is that the lesion in my jaw is acting up.. So, that’s all I know about that! In my 16 years of living with cancer, I’ve been through 5 different chemos, and the last two I was on, lasted for 3 years, before dying a quick death… And that’s the reason for the lesion acting up… But the calvary arrives today! The Michael Stanley Band takes us to the finish line today with their song: Rosewood Bitters…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and above all else, you remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler