Author: admin

The increase is most visible among large companies, where there were 236 bankruptcy filings in the first four months of this year, more than double 2022 levels, and the fastest YTD pace since 2010 according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.”

Here is one major part of what they all don’t get, as I wrote in my own article referenced above: No matter which way the debt ceiling argument breaks now that it has been dragged out for months, the news is bad for stocks. Finally, today, one market analyst pointed that out, making the same case I did. If the ceiling is raised, a flood of new Treasuries will be issued, pushing up Treasury interest rates up in a situation where the Fed is no longer buying. Bad for stocks. If the ceiling is not raised, US credit will see significant downgrades because, even Fitch notes that it cannot be sure the government will not choose the path of default over not paying other expenses. It doesn’t matter, at that point, if the US doesn’t actually default; the very fact that lawmakers and the Biden admin hit D-day without a deal will prove how reckless with credit they are willing to be and will cause significant credit downgrades because no one trusts reckless managers.”

Basic necessities are becoming unaffordable for Americans.

At the height of the 2008 financial crisis, when bank lending had almost ground to a halt, central banks around the world urged calm. But my investigation reveals evidence that, behind the scenes, they were pulling levers to restore calm artificially – measures which would later be ruled to be against the law in the UK.”

Fed officials have said they are watching to see by how much banks tighten lending conditions following the episodes, though Kashkari made no explicit comments about monetary policy in his essay.”

Or, here’s your snippet: “André Sougarret won global acclaim in 2010 as the chief engineer on a rescue of 33 Chilean miners who’d spent more than two months trapped 2,300 feet underground. Now, as chief executive officer of Codelco, he must attempt another difficult feat: digging the world’s No. 1 copper producer out of its current hole.

Ore quality is deteriorating around the world as existing deposits are depleted and new ones are more difficult and costly to develop. “There’s no easy mining left—not in Chile nor the rest of the world,” said Sougarret at a shareholders meeting on May 2.”

international appeal.”

It is particularly remarkable, that the two largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds – Japan and China which held a combined 30.3% of all U.S. Treasury bonds by February 2022 – reduced their share even more. Japan cut its holdings from $1303 to $1081.8bn (-17.0%) and China from $1028.7 to $848.8bn (-17.5%). Britain, the third-largest foreign state which currently has a share of 8.8% of all foreign holdings, slightly increased its holdings in the same period from $627 to $643bn.”

Now that a consequent cyclone is ripping through the small banking sector, this supposedly warrants a Fed pause, and then a sharp reversal to rate cuts during the second half of the year and unto 2024. In fact, the market is anticipating approximately 180 basis points of rate reductions from the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year and the first half of next year.

But that would truly be another case of Einstein’s famous definition of insanity—doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. The truth is, all three interest rate cutting sprees since the turn of the century—2001-2005, 2008-2011 and 2020-2022—were not remotely warranted. As shown in the first chart above, they simply drove real interest rates deeply underwater and caused the US economy to become submerged in excess debt, speculation and macroeconomic instability.”

Bowman further noted “the risk that a CBDC would provide not only a window into, but potentially an impediment to, the freedom Americans enjoy in choosing how money and resources are used and invested.”

“Approximately one-third cited a lack of trust in banks as the reason for not having a bank account,” Bowman said. “I think it is unlikely that this group would find the government somehow more trustworthy than highly regulated banks.”

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar was on the selling block, but there weren’t many takers, and the BBDXY lost about 1/2- index point overnight… Gold is up $5 to start the day, but Silver is down 4-cents… The dollar continues to hang on, but in my mind (Lord save us!) I see this as a prelude to a long term weak dollar trend… There’s just too many bad things mounting up against dollar strength…  Here’s one that I think is going to end up being a BID DEAL for the U.S. economy and the dollar’s future… “Some economists have noted that traditionally the quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey is not a major report that is highly followed. However, many have been waiting for this report to gauge how badly the banking crisis has impacted the banking sector.

Looking ahead, the survey also shows that banking officials expect to see a challenging year ahead.”

Or, here’s your snippet: “Right now, the Fed’s gold certificate values gold at $42.22 an ounce. That’s obviously not anywhere near the market price of gold, which, again, is about $2,042 an ounce.

Would the government consider the gold trick I just described? All I can say is don’t count on it.

Chuck Butler