Author: admin

*currencies & metals get sold in the overnight markets

* Credit Card delinquencies rise… Uh-oh!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, congrats to the Bills and the Bucs as they joined the other 4 winners of their playoff games yesterday and last night. Man, do I miss my RedZone tv station, as i find it difficult to watch a full NFL game, and prefer to watch highlights from live games instead… The day yesterday was warm, but overcast, and allowed me to sit outside and read a good part of the day, without worrying about the sun on my skin… I’ve just started a new book for me…  The Memory Man series… It’s a good one so far! Good friend, Karen brought me a ton of books to read the other day, and so now I’m set, with reading material for some time to come! The Guess Who greets me this morning with their song: Undun… 

Well, it was a holiday here in the U.S. yesterday, so there wasn’t much movement in the metals, Gold did gain $6 on the day to close at $2,055… Silver ended up losing 3-cents on the day, Mondy, and ended the day t $23.16… The BBDXY gained 1 index point on the day… The price of Oil bumped higher in its range to a $72 handle, and after I chastised the bond boys yesterday for not listening to the Fed Head Speakers last week, they adjusted the 10-year’s yield higher to 4.0%… 

I was reading my weekly Classic Wisdom yesterday, and realized that I had become addicted to knowing more and more about the ancient Greeks, and others of the time… Yesterday they drew a comparison of Socrates and MLK… they had both given their lives to better enlighten people…  You learn something new every day, folks… and when you don’t, it was a wasted day! 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, all hell broke loose last night… The dollar bugs went on rampage, and Gold got sold down the river… The BBDXY gained 7 index points overnight, and Gold lost $17 in the early trading. This has been swift, and strong… I guess it was bound to happen given all the talk of no rate cuts early by the Fed Heads… But C’mon dollar bugs… are you kidding me? You really believe the dollar should be bought right now? Apparently so… UGH!  Silver is down 15-cents to start the day today, barely holding on to the $23 handle… 

The price of Oil has bumped higher in the range and trades with a $73 handle, and the 10-year’s yield inched higher and trades this morning with a 4.01% yield…  I really don’t get why the dollar bugs are running all over the kitchen floor this morning, but they are, and so we’ll just batten down the hatches. The euro has dropped below 1.09, and the rest of the currencies, sans rubles, are looking pretty ugly this morning… 

Well… the world planners are meeting in Davos, Switzerland… this isn’t as clandestine as the Bilderberg meetings, and I did get a kick out of their plan for the meeting… “To restore Trust”…  Hmmm… that would mean that they did have our trust before, and somehow lost it… I wouldn’t trust these boys and girls with anything! 

Did you hear that Credit Card delinquencies are rising? And that to me is sign that consumers have been using credit cards to make ends meet, and now they’re having problems with paying the large interest rate-based loans down…  This could end up being what really causes the U.S. economy to fall flat on its face, folks… I’m just saying…  You can find this article here: https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-credit-card-deliquencies-decade-federal-reserve-markets-household-2024-1

Last week I wrote about how Gold had outperformed stocks and bonds since the turn of the century… And then i Bill Bonner’s letter  yesterday, he wrote this: “Our guess is that we’ve already seen “Peak America” in the late ‘90s. That was the best time – ever – to sell US equities. The Dow was trading at over 40 ounces of gold. So, if you had $100,000 in stocks…and you traded them for gold, you would have gotten 357 ounces.  

If you’d left your money in stocks, it would have grown from $100,000 to over $370,000 over the next 23 years. Not bad. But your gold coins would have gone from $280 per ounce in 1999 to over $2,000 an ounce today, turning your $100,000 into $714,000. ” – Bill Bonner from Bonner private research… 

Well, the warnings have all been sounded regarding traveling through the Red Sea… Another U.S. ship was hit by a missile fired from those not wanting anything to go through the passageway. The US. had tried to send a message last week by firing on the terrorists, but now we learn that Congress hadn’t given the POTUS the Ok, to wage war… Uh-Oh…. All, I’m trying to point out here is that with oil tankers having to go the long way around, it’s going to jack up the cost to ship, and therefore the cost of the Oil…   

Hmmm…. Well, the U.S. is racking up the debt again… This from MarketWatch.com “The U.S. federal budget deficit widened to $129 billion in December, up from $85 billion in the same month last year, the Treasury Department said Thursday.  

For the first three months of the fiscal year, the deficit widened to $510 billion, up from $421 billion in the same period last year.

Interest on the federal debt was up $78 billion, to $288 billion, over the first three months of the fiscal year compared with the same period a year earlier. The Federal Reserve’s rapid increase in interest rates is leading to higher interest payments.”

See what I’ve been saying about the new issuance of Treasuries to finance the debt? Well, in case you forgot, I told you that the cost to service the debt, (interest rates on the bonds) would increase, and get so high that soon other items in the budget that requires funding would be forgotten about in the near future…  What would you do if your WIC payment was deleted?  Or your welfare payment was cut in half?  Ok, I know I’m not talking to many of you who would be able to answer that question, but the idea here is to talk about what these people might do… And storm the castle comes to mind…  

Well, the dollar gets another day to breathe easier without any economic data printing today… Tomorrow, will be a day of data for the U.S. and we should get a pretty good idea as to the direction of the economy… 

To recap… The dollar got bought some yesterday, but really got bought overnight… Gold was up $6 yesterday, Oil was up a buck, and the 10-year’s yield was up to 4.0%… Chuck mentions Davos… and he talks about credit card delinquencies, and how that could very well be the straw that breaks the economy’s back…  And interest cost on financing our debt is growing faster than a speeding bullet… 

For What It’s Worth… Well after yesterday’s FWIW article, I found that today needed to be more of what I consider to be the truth… And for that I have an article about World Leaders doing the wrong thing, and it can be found here: An End to Progress – Doug Casey’s International Man

Or, here’s your snippet: ““Progress may have been all right once, but it has gone on too long.”

I’ve always been fond of that quote. Back when Ogden Nash wrote it, it was quite clever. Today, the quote is a bit less entertaining, as we are living in a period when, more and more, world leaders seem to be headed in the wrong direction – away from progress. As the Great Unravelling plays out, people are coming to the conclusion that the directions taken by their leaders are, in Doug Casey’s well-chosen words, not only the wrong thing to do, but the exact opposite of the right thing to do.

The first category in which this seems to be true is economics. Most world leaders are quite committed to the idea that Keynesian economics will provide all the answers to solve any economic problem. However, the further each country goes down the Keynesian road, the clearer it becomes that Keynesian theory simply does not work. In fact, many countries that have followed it are on the brink of economic collapse, yet they are charging forward all the more determinedly with solutions that are based upon the very theories that caused the problems.

The second category is economic legislation. In most First World countries, particularly the US, legislators are making it ever-more difficult for businesspeople to function, as a result of the passage of ever-more complex and stricter regulations. The free market is, at this point, far from free, and there is a substantial flow of business away from First World countries as a result. Contrary to the claims of many politicians, most businesspeople are not following this exodus out of greed, but out of a need for survival.

The third category is social legislation. First World countries, at one time, took pride in referring to themselves as “the Free World,” in contrast to the communist and socialist Second World. Not so, today.”

Chuck again… The article goes on, and makes a lot of sense to me that is… And I’m sure for you too!  I’m of the opinion that if lord Keynesian never existed the world would be a better place…   I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 1/16/24: American Style: A$.6601, kiwi .6153, C$ .7414, euro 1.0889, sterling 1.2644, Swiss $1.1621, European Style: rand 18.9105, krone 10.4277, SEK 10.4094, forint 348.64, zloty 4.0298, koruna 22.6658, RUB 88.00, yen 146.70, sing 1.3409, HKD 7.8251, INR 83.07, China 7.1935, peso 17.03, BRL 4.8951, BBDXY 1,234.31, Dollar Index 103.17, Oil $73.05, 10-year 4.01%, Silver $23.01, Platinum $905.00, Palladium $958.00, Copper $3.74, and Gold… $2,038.15

That’s it for today… Well, I think we’ve worked out a plan for the delivery of the Pfennig to your email box each day… I sure hope so, I don’t like having to send you to the website to read it every day! Nothing against the website, it’s just that if the letter isn’t in your email box, most likely, you’ll forget about it… UGH! And you never know when I’m going to lay some real important news on you! HA!  That football game last night went pretty late for me, so I bagged it went to bed and found out who won this morning… I was pretty sure the Bucs would win, when I retired, and they did… I’m coming up on the anniversary of my stroke… I’m still in awe of the surgical procedure they performed on me at the Jupiter Med Center… The small indentation in the wall where my head hit when I fell out of my chair is still there to remind me of that day…   The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today with their song: The Other Side Of Life….  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today and will Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• The dollar drifts up and down…
• Gold moves higher on Friday…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you… In my past life, I would be taking today off, as it is a national holiday… But, given my status as non-working, I thought what the heck!  Well, the NFL didn’t make any friends, and received a lot of criticism, even from a senator, about putting a playoff game on a streaming channel… As well they should! The game in Buffalo had to be moved to today, as is the norm for Buffalo, they were getting a winter storm on Saturday… Went to dinner last night with my good friend, Gus, who’s down here for the winter like me!  Seals and Crofts greet me this morning with their great song: We May Never Pass This Way Again… 

Well, last Tub Thumpin’ Thursday saw the STUPID CPI print… And even with all the hedonic adjustments that the BLS adds to the inflation calculation, the report showed that it was too soon to sound the “All Clear” siren on inflation…  This from the headlines: “Last month, overall prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier, up from 3.1% in November, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index. On a monthly basis, costs increased 0.3% after virtually flatlining the previous two months.”

And that proved to be something that the markets couldn’t shake all day, and the dollar rose, and stocks sunk… IF, and that’s a BIG IF, the Fed Heads really care to look at the STUPID CPI, that meant that they would not be ready to cut rates as soon as March, as the markets once thought.

And Fed Head, Loretta Mester confirmed my thought last week when she said that “March was too soon to cut rates”…

And Fed Head Neel Kashkari had this to say (Reuters) “Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said he would err on the side of overtightening monetary policy rather than not doing enough to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

“Undertightening will not get us back to 2% in a reasonable time,” Kashkari said in an interview with the Journal.

Kashkari said he needed more information to come to a firm decision on interest-rate steps moving forward. “I am not ready to say we are in a good place,” he told Journal.

It’s at this point that I say, “I told you so”…  I told you inflation was sticky, and that March was too soon…   

Not so fast there Chuck… What about the very weak PPI (wholesale inflation) that printed on Friday? Well, the bond boys seemed to recharge their thoughts of  rate cuts early this year because of that, you do have that as a result of the weak PPI… And on Friday, the dollar drifted… Gold gained $20.10, and Silver gained 43-cents…   So, it’s only the bond boys that took the PPI print to heart… 

Now knowing that inflation had ticked higher in December, you would have thought that the dollar would lose ground, and Gold would gain ground… Stocks would get sold, and bonds would get sold…  And you, and I would have been wrong!  

So what gives? The dollar on Thursday morning was down 2 index points to start the day, and then only ended down 1 index point at the end of the day, which meant that the dollar gained during the day… Gold, which was up $7 in the early trading, only gained $4 by the end of the day, thus losing $3 intraday…  Stocks were down 271 points and then miraculously turned around to a flat trading day…   

I would say that there had to be some great interference during the trading day Thursday,  And then on Friday…  Gold took off to the races, and brought Silver along.. .At one point in the day Gold traded as high as $2.061, but ended the day up $20.10 to close at $2,049.50…  Silver saw an even greater gain with it trading at $23.52, which was 76-cents higher, but had to settle for a gain of 43.5-cents and a price of $23.19… 

So, maybe it took the traders a day to realize that inflation isn’t going away that easily, and the geopolitical problems are escalating, and that there needs to be some protection from inflation nd wars, after all…  Maybe, just maybe, because you never know, what’s on their minds these days… 

Hey! did you hear the news that Hertz has scrapped their EV’s and ordered all gas-powered cars?  What? you think I’m making that up?  https://www.westernjournal.com/hertz-selling-fleet-electric-vehicles-shifting-back-gas-cars/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=conservativetribune&utm_campaign=dlvrit&utm_content=2024-01-12&fbclid=IwAR0gTea8qXVPVqitJ3057fWV5fc6hOHCDZis6DN3kA5bnAJJ3XwS_FpPZh0

Friend, Ed Steer, had this to say about that news: “This whole EV thingy is turning into a big bust, as I knew it would.

I’ll never own one of those things.  It’s -31C/-24F here right now — and they are totally useless when it’s this cold.”

It was negative 5 degrees in St. Louis yesterday…  

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar drifted a bit higher gaining 1 index point in the BBDXY index… The currencies all look like they are bang on levels they were last Friday… All except the Russian ruble, which is on the rally tracks the past week… Gold is up $3 to start the day today, and Silver is flat as a pancake (Head East)… The price of Oil sliped a buck and trades this morning with a $71 handle… And the bond boys (talked about above) have moved the 10-year’s yield back down to 3.93% to start the week… There will be another handful of Fed Head speakers this week, and maybe they can get the message across that rate cuts aren’t in the cards for early this year… The speakers last week, apparently didn’t get the message across clearly… 

I read a report this past weekend that talked about how the Japanese Yen is losing its safe haven status… Now, we need to back up here and talk about the Safe Havens that exist… There has been safe havens VS the dollar since Nixon took the Gold standard and threw it in the trash. They were Pound Sterling, Yen, and Swiss Francs…  And have remained as safe havens since, with varying degrees of importance… So, to say that yen is losing its safe haven status is no big deal… The euro has become the offset currency to the dollar, and therefore, when there are problems with the dollar, traders flock to euros…  I’m just saying.. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week has been talked about already above… And today’s Data Cupboard is empty because of the Holiday. On Wednesday this week we’ll see Retail Sales for January… The BHI indicates to me that this report will be OK… no negatives, no moon shots, just OK… 

To recap… The end of the week last week was interesting in that we say Gold & Silver champing at the bit to move higher, but being held back by the short paper traders… The Stupid CPI surprised the markets with a stronger than expected print, and Chuck was slapping himself on the back, saying I told you so! 

For What It’s Worth… Ok, this article goes against everything that I’ve been warning people about for decades now, and it gives some very interesting takes on the debt that I think are all malarky… But, in an effort to be fair and reasonable to all points, this article can be found here: Don’t Worry About US Debt Because Household Wealth Is 4 Times Bigger (businessinsider.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “US national debt recently topped a record $34 trillion, but worries over its size are misguided, former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm wrote in a Bloomberg op-ed.

Although concerns now abound among both politicians and consumers, pessimists are overlooking the amount of money potentially available.

“Yes, $34 trillion is big number, but $142 trillion is even bigger and much more important because it represents the total wealth of Americans —a massive resource that helps fund government debt and deficits,” she said.

Sahm also noted that some borrowing can provide economic benefits and advance societal goals, such as programs that lower child poverty and the development of COVID vaccines.

US debt skeptics have also warned that the threat comes more from the fact that interest rates have sharply increased, meaning that borrowing costs associated with federal debt will also rise.

Those costs will boost debt higher, feeding a cycle that some have warned could eventually lead to some form of default in as little as 20 years.

But debt servicing costs, though at a record $882.6 billion, make up a smaller percent of GDP than in the prior decades, Sahm noted. Today, it stands at 3.4% of GDP, below the late-1990s level of 4.3%.

“The government can easily service its debt because of its unlimited taxing authority and ability to issue more US Treasury securities to repay maturing securities,” she wrote.”

Chuck again… Ok, I don’t know what planet she came from or where she got her degree, but C’mon, let’s be serious here… Does she really think that the U.S. citizens will bail out the country?  Well, if you do, you can write your check to the U.S. Gov’t, for $265,000 because that’s each taxpayer’s portion of the debt… According to the Debt Clock…   Now, granted there are quite a few people who could write that check and not have it bounce… But the majority of us couldn’t, or wouldn’t be able to do that… I’m just saying…   I keep thinking of something my mom used to say, “you made your bed, now lay in it”… 

Market Prices 1/15/2024: American Style: A$ .6663, kiwi .6198, C$ .7455, euro 1.0956, sterling 1.2738, Swiss $1.1717, European Style: rand 18.6569, krone 10.3170, SEK 10.2945, forint 345.48, zloty 3.9851, koruna 22.5458, RUB 87.64, yen 145.70, sing 1.3334, HKD 7.8207, INR 82.88, China 7.1750, peso 16.87, BRL 4.8633, BBDXY 1,226.38, Dollar Index 102.52, Oil $71.68, 10-year 3.93%, Silver $23.19, Platinum $917.00, Palladium $981.00, Copper $3.76, and Gold… $2,052.55

That’s it for today… I was quite wordy this morning, just goes to show ya, that give me the time (like this past weekend) to think about stuff, and you get a lot of words! Congrats to the Texans, Chiefs, Packers, and Lions who won their playoff games this past weekend… Two more games today…  Our Blues had been playing better hockey lately, but lost at home to the Bruins Saturday night… UGH!  More rain is forecast for all day today down south… UGH! This has been the worst weather January that I’ve experienced down here this year, but I’m not going to complain about it, like I said above it was negative 5 degrees at home yesterday…  74 degrees sounds pretty good when you consider the rest of the country is freezing right now…  The Beautiful Dusty Springfield takes us to the finish line today with her song: You Don’t Have To Say You Love me…. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, today, and enjoy your holiday if you get one today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The dollar drifts on Wednesday, and gets sold in the overnight markets
• Where’s the Gold?

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I tuned into a channel last night that was televising our St. Louis U. Billikens VS St. Joe’s basketball game… The Bills were down big in the first half, and made a run in the second half, and after draining some 3 pointers, they took the lead, late, and won the game! What a comeback for the home team! I don’t have much to talk about today, so this letter should be short-n-sweet… Well, at least short, I don’t know about sweet! HA!  Smokey Bill Robinson greets me this morning with his song: Cruisin’  ( l love Smokey Robinson’s voice) 

Well… Yesterday, in the early trading, Gold was up a few bucks, but as soon as the NY trading opened, the short paper traders went to town on Gold, and send it down $5.70 on the day… Silver also saw interference, and ended the day down 2-cents… Gold closed yesterday at $2,025.30, and Silver closed at $22.96…  To illustrate what I saw yesterday, Gold was down $5.70 on the day, but that was $16 off Gold’s intraday high… And Silver had a similar intraday high that was 21-cents higher!  Oh, those dirty rotten scoundrels! I say we hang them from a tree… I say we beat them up, then hang them from a tree… 

You know that it’s a short paper trading driving the prices of the metals when the dollar isn’t involved one iota!  The BBDXY yesterday saw ½ of an index point gain on the day… No Big shakes here. So, once again the short paper traders were being bold and brazen in their attack on the metals, even without help from dollar strength. 

There was news from Australia last night that their Trade Surplus soared in the last month… And that lit a fire under the A$ for a bit, but then it calmed down and only showed a slight gain on the day… 

The price of Oil slipped a bit, and ended the day trading with a $71 handle… And the 10-year Treasury remained in its recent range at 4.02%… 

In The overnight markets last night…. The dollar was sold to the tune of 2 index points in the BBDXY… I see this back and forth up and down trading in the dollar right now to be a case of traders not really knowing where to go with the dollar… They know in their heart of hearts that they need to sell dollars, but there’s always that sneaky PPT out there to bash any selling that’s done… How much longer can this go on?  Well, probably longer than we care to deal with it that’s sure, but, it will end, and when it does it will end in tears… for the dollar bugs that is… 

Gold is up $7 to start the day today, and silver is up 9-cents… Now the game is to see if Gold can hold its gains when the NY traders arrive, or if it be attacked once again…  The price of Oil remains in the range and trades this morning with a $72 handle, and the 10-year didn’t move overnight and starts the day with a 4.00% yield… 

Well, I was taken back by recent comments from Janet Yellen, U.S. Treasury Sec. who said that the U.S. had entered a “soft landing” for the economy…  She obviously didn’t see this report on zerohedge.com  “We experienced a tremendous amount of economic turbulence in 2023, but at least the employment market was relatively stable.

Unfortunately, that period of relative stability appears to be ending.

The pace of layoffs really seemed to pick up steam at the end of 2023, and the outlook for the coming year is not promising at all. In fact, a survey that was just conducted by Resume Builder discovered that a whopping 38 percent of U.S. companies anticipate that they will conduct layoffs in 2024…

38% of companies say they are likely to have layoffs in 2024

52% are likely to implement a hiring freeze in 2024

Half say anticipation of a recession is a reason for potential layoffs

4 in 10 say layoffs are due to replacing workers with artificial intelligence (AI)

3 in 10 companies reducing or eliminating holiday bonuses this year

If you currently have a job that you highly value, try to hold on to it as tightly as you can.

Because the employment market is starting to shift in a major way.”

Chuck again…  That’s some heavy stuff right there! And if you thought 2023 was tumultuous, it’ll have nothing on what’s going to go on in 2024… El Nino is causing major problems for weather in the South, and that’s going to seem like chicken feed to what goes on in the markets this year…  And that brings me to my usual question at this time, and that is: Got Gold? 

So, the Big News last night was that Alabama Head Coach, Nick Saban was going to retire…  So, 1. either that is really earth-shattering news, or 2. it was a slow news night… 

This was news last night… ” Federal investigation is looking for at least $75 million in missing silver and gold from a Delaware warehouse”….  And that got me thinking about Fort Knox, and the supposed holdings of U.S. physical Gold… What would happen if the auditors (and the auditors haven’t been here in decades) showed up, opened the vault, and the vault was empty?  OMG!   Now, do NOT go around saying that I said the Vault at Fort Knox was empty!  I was just thinking about the Delaware Vault, and carrying it over to Fort Knox… 

But with all the Gold Swaps that have taken place through the years, one has to wonder just how much Gold remains in the vault at Fort Knox…. 

Another happening around the world had me thinking about what would happen if it occurred here? I’m talking about in Ecuador, a TV station was taken over by men with guns and bombs in an attack on the station. I know that happens in 3^rd world countries and not here, where we live in a country of laws… and law abiding people, but then remember the riots from a few years ago? They could have easily gone further to be like Ecuador… think about that for a minute, now that’s scary stuff!  

Boy, am I really dark and jaded this morning? I don’t like being like this, so I had better stop here! 

Well, the U.S. Data Cupboard today, finally has something for us… First up is the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…  After last week’s lower number (202,000) because of a shortened holiday week, the previous week, this report should be a doozy…   And then second today, we’ll see the STUPID CPI for Dec… No matter that the markets know that this isn’t the Fed Heads’ preferred inflation calculation, they still get goosebumps when it prints… Not me, but the markets all seem to think that this a real inflation calculation, when in reality it is nothing but a bunch of gobbledygook! Lies, and hedonic adjustments dominate the report… 

To recap… The dollar rallied on Wednesday but didn’t add to its gains in the overnight markets.  and the short paper traders went bold and brazen taking down Gold yesterday without the cover of dollar strength… UGH!  The Aussies printed a Trade Surplus in Dec, and saw a brief upward move in the A$…  And U.S. employers are thinking about a lot of layoffs and other things that are bad for employees in 2024… 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I’ve told you about how Russia was working on leaving SWIFT and starting their own clearing system, in the past… And apparently now is the time that they are going to implement thier new system… That story can be found here:  Russia And Iran Switch From SWIFT| Countercurrents

Or, here’s your snippet: “Iran and Russia have officially switched from the West’s SWIFT financial clearing system to a direct interbank transfer mechanism, the deputy head of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) has said.

Mohsen Karimi told Iranian state television on Sunday that the system allows companies in both countries to trade in their respective national currencies instead of using the dollar or euro, FARS news agency reported.

“We have linked the financial correspondence networks of the two countries,” he explained.

“This means that the banks of our two countries no longer need Switzerland to communicate with each other and commercial banks of both countries can establish brokerage relations with each other. The [Iranian] exporter can now charge the Russian side in rials and receive money from them via Russian banks in Iran,” Karimi added, noting that the system also allows for payments in Russian rubles.”

Chuck again… These may seem like little gains for these countries, but in reality, they are HUGE! it means that they no longer have need for holding dollars, folks… And to me, that’s HUGE! 

Market Prices 1/11/2024: American Style: A$ .6709, kiwi .6254, C$ .7482, euro 1.0982, sterling 1.2767, Swiss $1.1764, European Style: rand 18.5888, krone 10.3011, SEK 10.2051, forint 345.05, zloty 3.9618, koruna 22.4725, RUB 88.81, yen 145.36, sing 1.3292, HKD 7.8181, INR 83.03, China 7.1595, peso 17.00, BRL 4.8838, BBDXY 1,223.65, Dollar Index 102.24, Oil $72.83, 10-year 4.00%, Silver $23.05, Platinum $928.00, Palladium $1,016.00, Copper $3.79, and Gold… $2,033.87

That’s it for today… The NFL Playoffs begin this weekend, and there will be plenty of games to view… One game, the Kansas City Chiefs VS Miami Dolphins will not be on network TV… You’ll have to subscribe to Peacock to watch it.. I find this appalling… Only the two local markets will be able to watch the game on regular TV…  I realize that it was all about money, but C’mon NFL… and NBC… don’t you make enough money now without putting the screws to fans? I’m just asking…. We had lunch with good friends, Karen and Pete yesterday up in Suart, Fla.  I always enjoy their company… The Stylistics take us to the finish line today with their song: Betcha By Golly, Wow…  (they don’t write songs with lyrics like these anymore) … I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow… Tomorrow is son Andrew’s Birthday! Happy Birthday Bud!   And please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• The dollar gets bought on Tuesday…
• Copper sees short paper trading too…

Good Day… And A Wonderful Wednesday to you! A real bummer of a day yesterday down south… The overcast, windy weather remained in place, thus making it difficult to sit outside and enjoy the sun… In fact, it made it impossible to do that! UGH! I’ve been here a week now and have only seen the sunshine two days… And then it was fleeting…  Back home they have been experiencing like weather with lots of rain and cold temps… Like the song goes, “The sky won’t snow, and the sun won’t shine”… Stevie Wonder greets me this morning with his song: Superstition…  Stevie Ray Vaughan did a great job remaking this song too… 

Well… not being data dependent is what the currency traders were yesterday, as they bought dollars to the tune of 5 BBDXY index points! I didn’t see the dollar strength in the euro trading, as the single unit remained above 1.09… Gold started the day up and ended the day up, but not as much as earlier in the day, with Gold’s gain at $2.10, and Silver started the day flat, and ended the day down 12-cents… Gold closed at $2,030.20, and Silver closed at $22.98.

While Gold is hanging out here, you might as well call my metals guru, Tim Smith at 1-800-926-4922, and have him buy some physical Gold for your account… I’m just saying…

One metal, Copper, has seen some wild trading in recent days… Just last week Copper was as high as $3.86, and today it is $3.76… The well known shortages in Copper are out there folks, and the only thing keeping Copper from running higher is the short paper traders… Their efforts with Copper haven’t gone unnoticed by me… I’m just saying…

The price of Oil remained range bound, and ended the day with a $72 handle yesterday…  Bonds seem to be in a range above 4% right now, not knowing which way to go…  I’ve got a great report and something that I’ve been talking about a lot, in the FWIW article today… You DO NOT WANT TO MISS THAT!

In the overnight markets last night…. There wasn’t much oomph in the markets last night, as the dollar drifted lower, but with no conviction to really sell the currency. The BBDXY lost 2 index points last night, but like I said, there wasn’t much movement in the actual currencies, so I have concluded that there was no conviction to sell dollars last night…  No data, no currency direction…  That seems about right to me!  Gold is up $3 to start the day today, and Silver is up 2-cents… So, no great shakes there either… Hmmmm….  The price of Oil remains in the $72 handle, and bonds remain in their range of 4.00% to 4.05%, with the 10-year’s yield at 4.00% this morning. 

Well, did you hear this story that the SEC’s Twitter account was hacked, and the hackers sent out a Tweet that the Bitcoin ETF had been approved?  That sent shockwaves through the crypto market, until it was discovered that the SEC’s Twitter (X) account had been hacked…  

And that brings me to something that has been on my mind for ages now… Hackers…  Every day, I have to fish emails out of my email box that have nothing but bad intentions attached to them… Why? If we put these boys and girls behind the desk and told them to find a cure for cancer, they could probably do it!  Well, maybe be of help finding it, but still you get my point… Have them do something good for society, instead of wrecking it… I’ll get back to the markets now…

Well, word out this morning is that the Eurozone probably went through a recession in 2023… It’s amazing to me that these things get figured out months later, but it is, what it is…  I know one thing and that is that Eurozone inflation has dropped quickly… Probably too quickly, as it gives the Eurozone leaders a false sense of security, and a job well done… The European Central Bank (ECB ) is torn between two lovers here… one lover is that the would love to cut rates to boost the sluggish economy… the other lover is that they have a spine, and that spine tells them that they need to hold to tight monetary policies…  Torn between two lovers, feeling like a fool, loving both of you is breaking all the rules!   

The thing that keeps coming back to bite the ECB in the rear, is that the euro is the offset currency to the dollar, and just recent trading tells us that the euro will rise when the dollar get sold, no matter what the situation in the Eurozone warrants…  At year-end, when the dollar was on the ropes, doing the rope-a-dope, the euro climbed to the 1.10 handle… I’m just saying… 

Longtime readers know that I adore Stephanie Pomboy, and the work she does at macromavens.com …  She’s always on Twitter giving us little messages that are like dropping little grenades along the path as she walks… Yesterday, she was talking about Leveraged Loans let’s listen in: “Leveraged loans backing LBOs dried up in 3Q as investor appetite for risk disappeared. Indeed, the cost of LBO financing skyrocketed in terms of interest rates.” This is important because these Leveraged Loans keep the economy moving… We’ll have to keep an eye on this going forward…

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the Nov. Trade Deficit for our viewing yesterday… The Nov. Trade Deficit was $63.2 Billion… Recall that in Nov. the dollar was still holding to its gains, but was slipping quickly… I would think that the December Trade Deficit will be much larger that in Nov. because the dollar was much weaker in December… I’m just saying… You know I’ve explained this before, but here goes again… A weak currency will invite inflation to come to its shores from other countries… And a strong currency does wonders for combating inflation for a country… 

So, going back a couple of years, we had a strong currency, and strong inflation!  Imagine if you will what Inflation would have run up to, if the dollar was weak, like it was in the 70’s when inflation ran 14%… 

To recap… The dollar kicked some tail yesterday, rising 5 index points in the BBDXY… I have no idea why the dollar bugs were buying dollars yesterday, seems to be window dressing to me…  Curb appeal, and other descriptions come in play here… Gold gained $2 yesterday… And $3 overnight…  The dollar drifted downward in the overnight markets last night. The Eurozone probably went through a recession in 2023, according to reports this morning… But the euro remains the offset currency to the dollar, and that recession news isn’t enough to stop the euro from rising, when the dollar is getting sold… 

For What it’s Worth… Well, I’ve talked about how I thought the bond market rally, since the thoughts of a Fed /Cabal/ Cartel rate cut was coming, was a bear market rally…   And there are some real good reasons for me thinking that, and they can be found here: Bond Market Rally Overlooks a $2 Trillion Debt Problem – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Investors are ignoring the cloud of rising deficits around the world.

Right around the start of November, two words suddenly disappeared from the chatter in the bond market: debt supply. As bond prices surged across the developed world day after day, sending yields tumbling and handing investors some much-needed profits, the angst about soaring budget deficits melted away.

But for how long?

Over the next several weeks, governments from the US, UK and the eurozone will start flooding the market with bonds at a clip rarely seen before. Saddled with the kind of bloated deficits that were once unthinkable, these countries — along with Japan — will sell a net $2.1 trillion of new bonds to finance their 2024 spending plans, a 7% increase from last year, according to estimates from Bloomberg Intelligence.

With most central banks no longer hoovering up bonds to bolster economic growth, governments must now entice more buy orders out of investors around the world. To do so, the thinking goes, they will have to dangle higher yields, just as they did when concern about ballooning government debt loads was amplified this summer by Fitch Ratings’ move to strip the US of its AAA credit rating. The rout that resulted sent the rate on benchmark 10-year Treasuries above 5% for the first time in 16 years.

Those jitters may have faded of late — primarily because slowing inflation prompted investors to suddenly fixate on the idea that central banks will start cutting interest rates — but many bond-market analysts argue that, given the current supply-and-demand dynamics, it’s only a matter of time before the nervous chatter picks up. Indeed, bond yields have already lurched higher this year.”

Chuck again… Well, it does my heart good to hear someone else making the same arguments about a bond rally… 

Market Prices 1/10/2024: American Style: A$.6709, kiwi .6235, C$ .7476, euro 1.0946, sterling 1.2722, Swiss $1.1725, European Style: rand 18.6277, krone 10.3227, SEK 10.2336, forint 345.01, zloty 3.9637, koruna 22.4763, RUB 89.28, yen 145.05, sing 1.3310, HKD 7.8204, INR 83.03, China 7.1692, peso 16.96, BRL 4.8946, BBDXY 1,225., Dollar Index 102.49, Oil $72.40, 10-year 4.00%, Silver $22.96, Platinum $932.00, Palladium $996.00, Copper $3.76, and Gold… $2.033.83

That’s it for today…. Well, this is a very important message to my readers… The move to Battle Bank has hit a snag, and so for now, you’ll need to go to www.dailypfennig.com to read the letter each day… that is until it shows up in your email box!  I watched our Blues game last night on my iPad, they looked pretty good, but, still have problems putting the biscuit in the basket! We had major storms go through Florida last night, reminded me of early summer in St. Louis, where we can watch the storms come right up the I-44 corridor… These storms came from the S. West, which is better than coming from the ocean! The sun is rising this morning and it can be seen! YAHOO!  The El Nino weather pattern doesn’t forecast regular weather for Florida this winter… UGH!   So, I’ll take the sunny days, with extra vigor!  Bill Withers takes us to the finish line today with his song: Lovely Day…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and please, please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Metals attempt to come back from the engineered takedown…
• Oh, those darn downward revisions… Chuck has warned us!

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! We start today by saying congratulations to Michigan University for their win last night in the College Football Playoff Championship Game. The game started out like a blowout for Michigan, but Washington fought back, but, by game’s end, Michigan extended its lead and won the game. it’s another overcast day here in the South… UGH! I need the sunshine! C’Mon mother nature, give us some sunshine! The weather down here has not been the same as previous years here, winter does exist down here, and this year, it’s hanging on longer that usual… I still only wear shorts and polo shirts, but at night I have to put on a pullover… Oh well, it’s still warmer than back home!  A Flock of Seagulls greet me this morning with their song: Space Age Love Song… 

Well, the dollar remained adrift at sea for most of yesterday, only turning downward near the end of the day… The BBDXY ended up 3 index points lower, and the euro climbed higher in the 1.09 handle…  I read a report that talked about how traders, etal, are looking at the jobs number from last Friday, more closely… Hey! do you think that they have read the Pfennig enough through the years, that they decided to look under the hood for once? I kid… because where has the looking under the hood been all these years? Why have they decided to look under the hood now? Oh well, they are looking under the hood, and that meant that they didn’t believe the BLS’s jobs report, and that meant sell dollars… The euro, sterling, Swiss, and more all took a flyer to move higher VS the dollar yesterday. 

Gold started the day yesterday, down $25, and then began a slow rise to get back to zero… It was a valiant try, but Gold fell short, losing $17 on the day to close at $2,028.17. Silver started the day yesterday down 28-cents and ended the day down just 8-cent… Silver closed at $23.10… Now, we have to wonder if the bold and brazen attack on the metals by the short paper traders is finished now?   I sure hope so! 

The price of Oil got bad news yesterday, when the Saudis announced price cuts on Oil due to the softness in the demand for Texas Tea… Bubbling Gold… With the advent of electric cars, the price of Oil isn’t held in such high regard any longer… But, here’s a ditty for you… I read a report yesterday that talked about a town in Sweden that had bought all electric buses… And now that the weather has turned so cold, the buses won’t work!  How apropos, eh?  And… The 10-year’s yield backed off a bit yesterday, and fell from 4.05% to 4.01%… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar recovered 2 index points in the BBDXY Index last night, and one has to wonder if that will carry over to today’s trading in the West? The Fed Heads have said that they are data dependent, so will the markets follow the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel?  That would make sense to me…  Gold has added $7 to its price in the early trading today, and Silver is flat to start the day.  The bold and brazen takedown of the metals yesterday has given all of you who have procrastinated about buying metals, the opportunity to buy at a cheaper price… And that’s all I can say nicely about the takedown…  I told you yesterday that the Commercial Traders were long to the max with Gold futures… So, either they held on for dear life yesterday, or they added to the selling… We won’t see their positions until later in the week… 

The price of Oil remains range bound inching higher this morning to trade with a $72 handle.  And bonds are bonds… with the 10-year’s yield inching higher to 4.05% this morning… 

I’ve got a real doozy for you in the FWIW section today, regarding the Jobs Jamboree, and all the revisions that go unnoticed by the markets… So, stay tuned, same bat time, same bat channel! 

Ok… so what’s going on with bonds these days? since the first week of Rocktober, the 10-year’s yield has dropped from 5% to 3.80% last week… Since the start of the year though, the 10-year’s yield is back on the rise and ended yesterday at 4.01%… To get a better understanding what’s going on in the minds of bond traders, Bloomberg.com has a snippet from Bill Gross, the “Bond King” when he started his bond fund: PIMCO…   here’s we go: “Fresh from getting a big call right on yields toward the end of last year, former bond king Bill Gross just signaled he is now steering clear of Treasuries.

Ten-year US debt is “overvalued,” with similar-dated Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities at a 1.80% yield the better choice if one needs to buy bonds. “I don’t,” he wrote in a post on X.”

Chuck again… So, there! I said it weeks ago, that this bond rally was a bear market rally, and now Bill Gross agrees with me… 

And I do believe that inflation is going to remain sticky, and rise again in the near future, especially if the Fed Heads do begin to cut rates again… 

Traveling down to Australia this morning, we find that Retail Sales in Nov were at a 2% rise, VS 1.2% expected… That was responsible for the A$’s gain overnight… When the U.S. dollar was getting sold at year-end, the A$ had risen to .68-cents, but since, with all the dollar buying early this year, the A$ dropped to .6683…  So, this unsuspected rise in Retail Sales has the A$ back on the rally tracks. 

Here in the U.S. Consumer Credit (read debt) printed yesterday for November, and here are the numbers from MarketWatch.com : Total consumer credit rose $23.7 billion in November, up from a $5.8 billion increase in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said Monday. That translates into a 5.7% annual rate, up from a revised 1.4% rise in the prior month.

Economists had been expecting an $8 billion increase, according to the Wall Street Journal forecast.

Key data: Revolving credit, like credit cards, rose sharply at a 17.7% rate after a 2.7% gain in the prior month. That was the biggest gain since March 2022.”

Chuck again… here we go with these credit card debts again… Those are scary stuff in my mind folks… 20% and higher interest rates on debts carried over is a real problem for consumers… So… Christmas is over, and now the bills come in the mail… This is real life folks… And now U.S. consumers have to deal with all their Christmas buying! 

And heading north from Australia, we somehow get to China… China’s debt has gotten very high, and some people may be thinking that I would be harping about their debt too… But, in this case, China is doing something about their debt, they are thinking of ways to grow to offset the debt… I’m talking about the Silk Road project that China has taken on… I’ve not talked about the Silk Road for some time now, as it continues to head west… But it’s a still a viable project for China, and Russia to that end, because it helps to spread the de-dollarization message. I just wonder how this will all turn out…  I saw this quote yesterday from Pepe Escobar, “Or to put it in Silk Road terms: while the dogs of war bark, lie, and steal, the Russia-China caravan strolls on.”  About says it all, eh?

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Nov. Trade Deficit for our viewing… Yesterday, Fed Head, Bowman, said that she didn’t have a problem with rate cuts as long as inflation is under control….  See what she did there? She opened a door and left the door cracked open… Control… that’s the key word here… That’s a judgement call on what the Fed Heads call Control… So… she didn’t really say anything yesterday, other than she’s for a rate cut… More Stupid Fed Speak… Why can’t they just say what’s on their collective minds?  Oh, we know why they can’t, but C’mon give us a break here! 

To recap… The adrift at sea dollar finally took on some water yesterday, with the BBDXY losing 3 index points on the day. The euro climbed higher in the 1.09 handle, and all the rest of the currencies participated in gaining VS the dollar. Bill Gross tells us what he thinks of the 10-year Treasury’s yield… And chuck talks about inflation… again! Aussie Retail Sales surprised the markets, and U.S. consumer debt is soaring! 

For What It’s Worth… Longtime readers know that I’ve pointed out the irregularities of the BLS Jobs Jamboree each and every month that print these false reports… This article talks about how so many initial reports are revised downward but under the cover of darkness, and it can be found here: US Jobs Report: The gig is up! | Ainslie Bullion

Or, here’s your snippet: “Last Thursday’s US jobs report caused quite a stir – with the DXY at first rising to 103.1 on a figure of 216,000 against the 170,000 estimated. It was the reaction that followed, however, that is garnering the most attention. After 11 months of revisions in 2023, 10 of the 11 have been revised down.  Statistically there is a 1 in 1000 chance of this occurring, so when the DXY collapsed 2 hours later to 101.9, it appeared that traders were finally starting to question the legitimacy of US numbers.

Revision, Revision, Revision

In a recent post from End Wokeness they have broken down the current job market numbers, showing the specifics of the revisions. Thinking in probabilistic terms this is like getting 10 out of 11 heads in a game of heads and tails. As this data is assumed to be non-biased, you should be as likely to get a revision up as a revision down. Now the probability of this happening is 0.1%, a statistical unlikelihood which can only lead any logical person to one of two conclusions. Either Biden is one very lucky President with his Bidenonomics policies able to move unemployment numbers at will, or someone is cooking the books.

Breaking down the data

So why was the reaction so negative 2 hours after the report?  The numbers showed firstly the following:

November revision of -27,000 jobs and October revision -45,000

1.5 million loss in full time roles (you read that right!)

676,000 people leaving the labour force (labour rate has never recovered since Covid)

52,000 out of 216,000 government jobs created (24%)

8.6million (a record) number of people with 2 jobs which skews the unemployment rate with double counting

So nutting this out in plain speak… with 216,000 jobs created and 72,000 revised down, actual job gains were 144,000 – well below the 170,000 estimate. 1.5 million people lost their full-time job. These jobs were replaced with 1.644 million part time jobs, with 8.6 million people in the US currently willing to fill these jobs as a second job, skewing the unemployment rate of 3.7% but not being measured or reported. In fact reviewing a recent Biden tweet – “A record breaking Biden Economy in 2023” 2.7 million jobs were created…  It appears in December 1.7 million of those were part time, meaning no more than 1 million full time jobs could have been created in 2023 (but I’m sure there’s a revision in that…)”

Chuck again… I know, that’s a long snippet, but… I thought that since I’ve harped and yelled at the walls about the false numbers that the BLS prints each month, that some further proof was needed to be shown… 

Market Prices 1/9/2024: American Style: A$ .6696, kiwi .6243, C$ .7480, euro 1.0934, sterling 1.2721, Swiss $1.1735, European Style: rand 18.6734, krone 10.3615, SEK 10.2917, forint 346.36, zloty 3.9645, koruna 22.5528, RUB 89.85, yen 144.10, sing 1.3305, HKD 7.8148, INR 83.11, China 7.1624, peso 16.83, BRL 4.8745, BBDXY 1,223.78, Dollar Index 102.14, Oil $72.07, 10-year 4.05%, Silver $23.11, Platinum $947.00, Palladium $997.00, Copper $3.81, and Gold… $2,035.07

That’s it for today… Well, our place down here grew very quiet once out guests left yesterday, and it seemed empty… So, I reclined in my chair, and fell asleep for 4 hours! Crazy, eh?  We’re off to get a global entry status for Kathy this morning, I go in February to get mine.  37 days till pitchers and catchers report… I’m just saying… This coming Friday is my oldest son’s birthday… He was born during a snowstorm in 1982… And has grown to be a very well-respected gentleman…  An early Happy Birthday, Andrew!  Neil Young takes us to the finish line today, with his song: Harvest Moon… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Dollar drifts at sea…
• U.S. Debt is like a frog in boiling water…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, we had visitors this past weekend, good friends, Gus and Diane, were here, and well, the weather didn’t cooperate… It was overcast, rainy and chilly… I know it seems strange to say chilly when it was 72, but… without sunshine, it was… The National College Football Championship game is tonight… Good luck to the teams, that are playing, Michigan and Washington… I would like to see Washington win, as I’m still on the fence as to whether Michigan should have been allowed to play in the playoffs to start… The Rascals greet me this morning with their hit song: A Beautiful Morning… 

Well, after a hell bent and whiskey bound start to the year, the dollar kind of backed off all the buying as the week ended… On Thursday morning, the BBDXY was 1,223.71… On Friday at the close the BBDXY was 1,224.14… So, the dollar was up less than 1/2 index point. The PPT had gone back into their cave, where they had crawled out of to intervene in the currency markets once again, last week. It’s getting to be a bad habit, that whenever the dollar begins to fade, and it appears the markets want to take it lower, the PPT steps in and buys dollars, with their Treasure Trove of : Exchange Stabilization Funds…   One of these days the PPT’s well will run dry, and then who’s going to be there to save the dollar? 

The price of Gold gained $2.10 on Thursday, and $2.20 on Friday, to close the week at $2,045.60… Silver saw a small gain of 2-cents on Thursday, and 18-cents on Friday to close the week at $23.19. Both metals were much higher both days, only to see the short paper traders enter the markets and reduce the gains the two metals had booked intraday. Again, one of these days, the short paper traders will have to eat their short trades, and take losses, and back out of their Ponzi Scheme, and when that finally happens, to the moon, Alice!   I’m just saying…

The price of Oil ended the week at $72.87, just a short hop, skip and jump from the $73 handle… the price of Oil has seemed to settle in right around $70-$73 for now… Biding its time before exploding higher… Well, that’s what I see for the price of Oil, what do you see? 

The 10-year moved back above the 4% yield level on Friday… The Jobs Jamboree which was lies, and more lies, said that 216,000 jobs were created in December… I would have to think that a majority of those jobs were temporary seasonal work… Now that Santa isn’t needed in the Food Court at the Mall any longer, he’ll be showing up for unemployment again… And that goes for Mrs. Claus in the bakery dept too!  

Anyway… the Jobs Jamboree basically told the bond boys to “wait, a minute, and not go so fast on that rate cut talk”… And so bonds got sold once again… 

In the overnight markets last night…. Oh my…. What are the short paper traders doing this morning? They have Gold down $25 in the early trading today, and Silver down 28-cents! Serenity now! I know that I said long ago that I wasn’t going to get upset with the dirty rotten scoundrels any longer, but this really got to me this morning… There’s no dollar rally going on, there’s no bond market rally going on, and the geopolitical problems seem to be escalating daily, but Gold can’t find a bid? Give me a break! This is so brazen and bold, that I do have to give the short paper traders credit for their intestinal fortitude!  

So, like I said there’s no dollar rally going on, the BBDXY is up just a smidgen this morning, and with no real economic news on the docket this morning, that’s the direction of the dollar for today… adrift at sea…  

Well, here’s a little ditty that seemed interesting to me… This is from Bloomberg.com “Non-commercial traders — a group that includes hedge funds, asset managers and other speculative market players — added to their short positions on the dollar in the week ended Tuesday, according to CFTC data compiled by Bloomberg. Roughly 96,800 contracts worth almost $10 billion are now tied to expectations that the US currency will fall, up more than 26,000 from the previous week and the most bearish since late August.”

Chuck again… Well, with the way the dollar began the year, on a tear, these boys and girls are probably second guessing their short positions… But not to fear, I’ve seen the dollar begin years strong before, and then suddenly fade, and truly expect that to happen again in 2024…. 

And after last week’s Jobs Jamboree, I would have to say that either the Fed Heads will have to delay any rate cut this year, or have to admit that they never were worried about the strong jobs market, and wage induced inflation… Now, which one do you think the Fed Heads will choose? Thank you Bob Barker, I’ll take what’s behind door #1… I was asked this question a couple of weeks ago regarding the Fed Heads potential rate cuts… I said then and I still stand by that statement, that I didn’t think the markets were correct in thinking that the Fed Heads would cut rates as soon as March 2024… I said that if anything, the earliest a rate cut could come is June, and by then who the heck knows what will be the financial situation in the U.S.?  Chances are, because I wear a silly grin, no wait! That’s not where you were going, Chuck! Chances are the rate cuts will not materialize in 2024… Then what happens to the dollar?  

I came across this headline in the Business Insider.com “The $34 trillion mountain of national debt is a ‘boiling frog’ situation for the US economy, JPMorgan warns”…

Yes, that’s the old adage about how if you put a frog in a pot of boiling water, he’ll jump out! But if you put him in a pot of warm water, and slowly turn up the heat, he will get boiled…  So, what JP Morgan is saying here is that the debt is slowly turning up the heat on the economy… YIKES!  You know, that when you hear a Big Box Broker/ Casino Bank talking about problems for the economy and debt, you know that there is a real problem out there! I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Friday had the aforementioned Jobs Jamboree… In addition the Jobs report showed that there had been a 4.1% increase in Hourly Wages in the past year… Well, if we use the real inflation data that John Williams computes for us that says that Consumer Inflation is running around 8%, then we can clearly see that wages aren’t keeping up with inflation… And that’s not good, folks… How long can U.S. Consumers keep reaching into savings, or running up debt on their Credit Cards, before this all comes crashing down?   I don’t know the answer to that question, but if I took a stab at answering it, I would say not past this year…  Uh-Oh!

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week, doesn’t have a lot of real economic data to print, until we get to our Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, when the Stupid CPI will print… Right now the so-called experts have CPI increasing month to month at .2%, and annualized CPI increasing .2% to 3.3%… See what I mean about how this report is plain Stupid? Calculated without hedonic measures, John Williams at www.shadowstats.com  compute CPI at 8%… not 3.3%… I’m just saying…

To recap… The dollar started the year last week on a tear… But by the end of the week, it was scratching and clawing for any upward movement, which turned out to be not really coming… Gold finally got its head above water on both Thursday and Friday last week, albeit by small amounts. Chuck points out that the non-commercial traders have built a strong long position in Gold… So, something has to shake out of this situation folks… 

For What It’s Worth…  The good folks at GATA sent me this on Sunday, and while reading it, I decided to feature it in my FWIW article today. This is an article about how Gold has outperformed stocks and bonds since the turn of the century, and it can be found here: Gold still outshining stocks and bonds since the turn of the century | Morningstar

Or, here’s your snippet: “Stocks outpaced gold in 2023, but the yellow metal still posted stronger annualized returns since the turn of the century, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices

No yield, no dividend, no problem?

That appears to be the case for gold when it comes to its performance against both stocks and bonds as the calendar flips ever deeper into the 21st century. The chart below from S&P Dow Jones Indices shows the relative performance of the yellow metal, as measured by Dow Jones Commodity Index Gold, versus the S&P 500 SPX, between Dec. 31, 1999, and Dec. 29, 2023.

Unlike some stocks, gold – like other commodities – pays no dividends. Unlike bonds, it pays no coupon. That’s often described as raising the opportunity cost of holding gold versus assets that produce some sort of yield. Still, DJCI Gold, which is designed to track the market via futures contracts (GC00), has outpaced both since the turn of the millennium.

Going back to the start of the century, DJCI Gold produced a 7.8% annual return, compared to a 7% return for the S&P 500 during that time, said Brian Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a blog post this week.

Adjusting for volatility, gold has provided slightly better risk-adjusted returns than stocks, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.48 versus 0.45 for equities, Luke wrote. The ratio compares the return on an investment with its risk.

Bonds aren’t even close when it comes to annualized returns. The iBoxx USD Overall Index, which measures investment-grade government and corporate bonds, has seen an average return of 4.1% since 1999, according to Luke, though its Sharpe ratio is slightly better at 0.89.”

Chuck again… Well, I had always suspected that to be true, and now I have the data and the facts to prove me correct! 

Market Prices 1/8/2023: American Style: A$ .6683. kiwi .6216. C$ 7470, euro 1.0938, sterling 1.2705, Swiss $1.1741, European Style: rand 18.7429, krone 10.4218, SEK 10.2864, forint 345.29, zloty 3.9753, koruna 22.3997, RUB 91.06, yen 144.56, sing 1.3325, HKD 7.8073, INR 83.13, China 7.1623, peso 16.88, BRL 4.8889, BBDY 1,224.98, Dollar Index 102.49, Oil $73.06, 10-year 3.05%, Silver $22.91, Platinum $954.00, Palladium $1,017.00, Copper $3.80, and Gold… $2,020.18

That’s it for today… Well, our friends go home today… so sad… back to the cold of the north!  I saw where the St. Louis region got a dusting of snow last week… I get the feeling that the weather pattern is about to change again, and we’ll start having colder winters up north, with more snow… The NFL Playoffs are set, and start this coming Saturday… Why on earth are some of the playoff games only on Peacock, a streaming station?  I do believe that the NFL is shooting themselves in the foot on this… I’m just saying… Our Blues have won 2 games in a row… They changed their head coach, and they seem to be playing better… Go Blues!  And there are 38 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training! The countdown has begun! For me at least!  HA! Doucette takes us to the finish line today with their song: Mama Let Him Play…  And with that I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• the interference in the markets has been quite prevalent…
• Earthquake in Japan, deep sixes the rate hike thoughts…

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well my trip down to the South was delayed, of course, and we didn’t pull into our place until after 1 AM… I’m beat! I don’t know what it is about flying, but I always feel beat after arriving at my destination. So… Here I am… It’s very early, and the shutters that we closed before leaving in Nov. are still closed… We would have opened them last night, but it was too late for such noise. The PPT was back at work the first 2 days of the year, so we have that to talk about this morning, along with some other things that crossed my mind while traveling yesterday… King Crimson greets me this morning with their song: In The Court of the Crimson King… A rock classic for sure!

Well… Not only was the PPT in making sure the dollar didn’t fall any further the last two days, the short paper traders were at it again too! First they took Gold by $4.50 Tuesday, and then another $18 yesterday… Gold closed yesterday at $2,041.49… Silver was also taken to the woodshed the last two days, with Tuesday’s loss of 13.5-cents and then a whopping 65-cents yesterday. Silver closed yesterday at $23.01…  UGH!  

The price of Oil traded throughout the day yesterday trying to get back to $73, but fell short, and ended the day trading with a $72 handle… Bonds are still wishy washy, turbulent and not knowing which way to go, and the 10-year ended the day at 3.91% yield. 

In the overnight markets last night…Well, apparently the foreign markets didn’t get the memo that the dollar bugs were back buying dollars, with the PPT’s backing, because the dollar drifted last night, and didn’t add to the day’s shenanigans. In fact the dollar lost 1 index point in the BBDXY overnight… So, maybe that’s a signal that the all-clear horn has sounded, and the PPT has gone back to their lair, I guess we’ll see for sure when the U.S. boys and girls return to their desks…  

The price of Oil finally climbed back over the $73 handle last night, and the 10-year’s yield rose to 3.96%… Bonds are a mixed bag-o-nuts right now, and I wouldn’t touch them with your ten-foot pole!   

You know, the news from Japan over the weekend was horrible. The earthquake they experienced was strong, and it has caused considerable damage in Japan… So, other than the horrible loss of lives, the markets have done a 180 on the Bank of Japan’s potential rate hike… That thought has been put to bed, for now, and the selling of the yen has replaced it… Goes to show you that all the plans of mice and men… right? 

Well… congratulations U.S. Congress people… You made it to $34 Trillion! Yes, it was reported yesterday that, “The total US national debt spiked by $1.0 trillion in 15 weeks since September 15, to $34.0 trillion, according to the Treasury Department’s figures this afternoon. In the seven months since the debt ceiling was lifted, the national debt spiked by $2.5 trillion.”

And that brings me back to what I told you back when the debt ceiling was kicked further down the road, that the debt accumulation would spiral upward quickly because of the all the debt that was on hold…  So, here we are already with $1 Trillion in debt in the first 3 months of the fiscal year… Oh my! 

Well, Bill Bonner of www.bonnerprivateresearch.com had something to say about all this new debt, let’s listen in: “A long-held guess here at BPR is that the US would eventually follow Argentina on the road to ruin…with high levels of corruption and inflation. Amid all the noise and to-do of 2023, it was hard to follow the tune. But in the deep background, the tango beat grew stronger.  

Stocks hit a high note; wars and massacres continued; US politics degenerated into buffoonery; inflation eased off. Over the course of the last two administrations, 2017-2024, US debt increased from $19.9 trillion to $33.9 trillion – or at the rate of $2 trillion per year.  Last October and November set a new debt record – with a deficit of $383 billion for the first two months of the fiscal year, or $2.3 trillion annualized. No attack on the US. No depression. No emergency…not even a bad hair day…and yet, US politicians spent money as if they were Argentines! “

Chuck again… Say it ain’t so, Joe! We can’t be following the Argentines can we? Oh, yes we most certainly could be…  I’m just saying

And knowing all of this should put a bee in the bonnet of many investors that have shunned physical Gold (& Silver) But, as a good friend told me recently after meeting with his investment manager, “I asked him if I could buy Gold in my account, and he told me “we have no way of doing that”!  So this means if you have your investments handled by a agent at a Big Brokerage Firm, you’ll have to withdraw some funds, and buy it on your own…   

And you had better buy it very soon, because even though Gold has backed off from its lofty figure of last week, it will soon revisit that, and more, if things go the way I see them going in 2024…  

And the good folks at GATA sent me this note yesterday, “Investors flocked to gold in record numbers in 2023 as global economic turbulence triggered a flight to safety, according to the Royal Mint.The number of people buying gold and precious metal bars and coins jumped by 7% year-on-year, surpassing the highs of the 2020 lockdown investing boom.”

And yet… Gold only had a 13% gain in 2023… I know I told you on Tuesday that Gold’s gain in 2023 was only 3%… But I had looked at the number incorrectly…  You would think that with a 7% jump in physical gold buying in 2023, the gain would have been greater… right? But we all know what’s holding Gold back… now don’t we?

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the ISM manufacturing index for Dec on Tuesday, and you may recall me telling you that I thought it would continue to show contraction, with a number below 50… And that it did with 47.2 showing… Today’s Data Cupboard has the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the ADP Employment Report, which is showing that it could be 130,000, and then tomorrow the Jobs Jamboree prints for December, and who knows what the BLS has up their sleeve! It will be something interesting for sure… but be certain that it’s full of lies, lies, and more lies… 

To recap… Ever since the new year began the interference in the metals and the dollar has been at an all-time high! Or at least that is what it seems!  Gold has lost quite a bit of ground from its lofty figure of year end… And the dollar has won back some of the lost ground it has succumbed to in recent months, with the PPT in buying dollars to save it from more humiliation… Gold has a record year of physical buying in 2023… So, put that in your pipe and smoke it, price manipulators! 

For What It’s Worth… Well, I decided to go a different route today, and will focus on health… You know, I’ve told you that I eliminated sweets from my diet 4 years ago, now… And then I read this article and thought, well, I’m one step ahead! This is about sugar in your diet and it can be found here: Dr. Says Quitting Sugar Can Stop Most Chronic Diseases (needtoknow.news)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Dr. Robert Lustig, MD, is a retired professor at the University of California, San Francisco and specializes in the field of neuroendocrinology. He explained the dangers of consuming sugar and said that it poisons mitochondria that causes a decrease in the energy that powers our cells. Sugar is not a food because it inhibits growth and energy production. Lustig says that sugar feeds cancer, and it dramatically raises the risk for Alzheimer’s Disease, cardiovascular disease, and other metabolic diseases. He said that if people eat a real food diet, most chronic diseases go away.

Dr. Lustig said that in the 1960’s, the sugar industry paid $6,500 to Fred Stare, the chairman of the Department of Nutrition at the Harvard School of Public Health, and his associate Mark Hegsted, who later became the head of the US Department of Agriculture, to exonerate sugar and instead blame saturated fat for negative health effects. They were paid to write false review articles in the New England Journal of Medicine that were peer reviewed.”

Chuck again… I didn’t completely eliminate sugars 4 years ago, I still use creamer in my coffee… But, I’m buying sugar-free creamer now, so that will complete the circle!  

Market Prices 1/5/2024: American Style: A$ .6726, kiwi .6249, C$ .7499, euro 1.0953, sterling 1.2694, Swiss $1.1764, European Style: rand 18.6552, krone 10.2941, SEK 10.2143, forint 345.78, zloty 3.9680, koruna 22.5078, RUB 91.22, yen 144.18, sing 1.3279, HKD 7.8082, INR 83.23, China 7.1510, peso 17.0005, BRL 4.9110, BBDXY 1,223.71, Dollar Index 102.41, Oil $73.46, 10-year 3.96%, Silver $20.98, Platinum $972.00, Palladium $1,068.00, Copper $3.87, and Gold… $2,045.84

That’s it for today and this week… Well, not only am I in my winter home now, but I’m back with my good friend, Frank Trotter, and being sponsored by Battle Bank… It’s been a long time coming, it’s been a long time gone… But we’re back together! YAHOO! Well, the National Championship for college football will be played Monday Night… Should be a real barn burner! The Uber driver last night, saw that I was wearing my Mizzou Tigers baseball cap, and said, “how about those Tigers beating The Ohio State!?” I said, MIZ baby! Fantasy Football leagues should be have wrapped up their seasons last week, as this week is the last week of football, and those teams that guaranteed a spot in the playoffs win or lose, will not play their stars the whole game if any of the game… The Electric Light Orchestra (ELO) takes us to the finish line today with their song: Can’t Get You Out Of My Head….  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow… And please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• The U.S. dollar continues to get sold…
• The dollar’s use in trade slips again…

Good Day… And a year-end, Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! I don’t know up front how long this letter will be today, as I’m very anxious to begin to get ready for my trip to my winter home in the South…  These days, my wife has flown and spent so much that she has a companion pass, so she booked our trip to Florida, and just added me as her free companion… I thought we had talked about leaving today 12/28, but she threw me a curve and we are now scheduled to leave next Wednesday… UGH!  That means for the first time in many years, I will be home for NYE, I guess I had better find a restaurant that will take a reservation!  The great Al Stewart greets me this morning with his song: The Year of the Cat… 

Well, the year-end drive to get the dollar lower continued yesterday, with the dollar getting sold again, and the BBDXY losing 4 index points… The feeling has been cast on to the dollar bugs that the Fed Heads are eventually going to cut rates next year, and so all the dollar buying because the Fed Heads were in a rate hike cycle is now being unwound… There’s a lot more unwinding to go, I’m just saying!  

Gold had a stellar day, gaining $10.50 and closing at $2,077.50. Silver turned the early morning selling around yesterday, and gained 5-cents on the day to close at $24.28… You know it occurred to me the other day that Gold is really coming into a period where individuals, hedge funds, pensions, etc. are realizing what a store of value it is, especially in these times of geopolitical problems, and unknowns…. Those “unknowns” are really scary things folks, especially to traders… So as we go into year-end 2023, Gold is putting on a rally to bring it to new all-times highs… put that in your logbook, so you can always go back and say, I remember the day Gold hit its all-time high, and hasn’t looked back! 

I have to mention the short paper traders here, even with Gold climbing higher, the short paper traders have been in trying to manage the price of the metals, both Gold & Silver… Here’s Ed Steer’s view of what’s going on: “It was yet another day where the commercial traders of whatever stripe made their presence felt both in Globex and COMEX trading, as it was another case of where if they hadn’t, gold and silver would be beyond the moon.

It was most notable once again in silver, where ‘da boyz’ only allowed it to close higher on the day by a few pennies…well off its high tick.” – Ed Steer at www.edsteergoldsilver.com 

Chuck again… So, while Gold seems to be rid of the short paper traders, it’s not like that at all… They have to keep at it to keep the Ponzi scheme that they have created going…  I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil slipped a buck yesterday, and ended the day trading with a $74 handle. And bonds continue to get bought with the 10-year’s yield falling to 3.80%… 

In the overnight markets last night… The Dollar got sold more overnight… The old Dollar Index has fallen below 101, and looks like it’s headed to a sub 100 figure soon… The BBDXY lost 2 index points overnight, and all that has brought the euro to a 1.11 handle…  And the rest of the currencies are all looking much healthier.  Even the Japanese yen is getting in on the dollar weakness… Remember I told you weeks ago that this could be in yen’s future, as long as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) comes through with a rate hike… The BOJ is still hemming an hawing about when they will hike rates, so for now, it seems the large traders are piling into yen, maybe forcing the BOJ to hike rates sooner than later… 

The Chinese renminbi is also perking up… The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) are really the engine of the de-dollarization plan that’s been hatched and headed by China and Russia… I have something for you on the dollar’s slipping in use for trade in the FWIW section today… 

The price of Oil has slipped another buck overnight and trades this morning with a $73 handle. And bonds continue to get bought… Was it too soon for the bond rally?  Only time will tell… and forecasts are useless, here… 

This scenario that’s playing out right now with the Fed Heads contemplating a rate hike in 2024, reminds me of the late 70’s and early 80’s… Let’s go back in time and revisit this time to see what I’m talking about… Inflation was soaring in the 70’s and head Fed Head, Paul Volcker hiked rates to 20%… Then it appeared that he had beaten inflation back, as it dropped… And a rate cut came too soon it turned out… For inflation roared back and the Fed Heads had to hike rates again…   

So, see what I’m talking about here?  Will history repeat itself here? I’m thinking that the chances are better than average that will happen… I’m just saying…  And if that happens, all these bond buyers will be in deep dookie… 

It’s been quite the event-filled year for yours truly… I went on my first cruise, without my kids, I suffered a stroke, but quickly recovered, I had my first low-sugar event, that was scary, until i realized what it was… I changed chemos twice during the year, my youngest son, Alex got engaged, and is busy planning a wedding… And I’ve spent two nights in the ER with bleeding that won’t stop… Other than those things, I lead a pretty boring life… I’m just saying…

Well… Zerohedge.com reported yesterday that: “A new report from the Financial Times shows twenty of the world’s largest banks slashed 61,905 jobs in 2023, a move to protect profit margins in a period of high interest rates amid a slump in dealmaking and equity and debt sales. This compared with the 140,000 lost during the GFC of 2007-08.

Chuck again… yes the GFC… Great Financial Collapse… Remember that one? The Housing Market Bubble that I first warned people about in my White Paper titled: The Year of the Euro, in 2003, popped and left no prisoners behind. 

Ok..  Well, I hesitated to talk about this but then I thought, what the heck! We all know that this is happening around us… This is from Michael Snyder for Lew Rockwell.com “The ominous trends that we see all around us are taking us somewhere.  Needless to say, 2023 was not a good year for our country.  Hunger and homelessness have been absolutely exploding, the suicide rate just continues to go even higher, and there is chaos in the streets on an almost nightly basis.  It is in this environment that the election of 2024 will happen.  I expect election season to add an additional level of strain to our society, and I don’t think that our society will be able to handle it.  We are headed for a nightmare, and at this point everyone should be able to see that.”

Chuck again…  I know, not too uplifting, but stuff that has to be talked about… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Initial Weekly Jobless Claims…. I’m sure the numbers will be skewed because of the holiday shortened week we had last week.  There’s really not much going on here in the Data Cupboard today or tomorrow… And tomorrow the Bond Market closes early… So, the bond boys have that going for them! 

To recap… The dollar continues to get sold, on a daily basis… Yesterday it was 4 index worth of losses in the BBDXY, and overnight it got sold some more! Gold is reclaiming its role as the preservation of wealth… Chuck says to put in your logbooks when Gold breaks its all-time high, which could be today, so you can look back and say that you know when that happened! Worldwide banks are axing employees… Not a good time to be a banker… I’m just saying… 

For What It’s Worth… this article talks about how the dollar has already run into the BRICS iceberg… And I think that at this time, when the dollar seems to be teetering… It’s a good article to read… And you can read it all here:Has the U.S. Dollar Already Struck the BRICS Iceberg? – LewRockwell

Or, here’s your snippet: ” As of this writing, US dollar reserves have fallen by 6.5% as foreign central banks cut ties with the currency. The BRICS countries, especially those in the global South, are leading the charge to depart from the decades-long dominance of the American currency. China and Japan’s central bank shares show the most significant rise in central banks. Interestingly, the Euro is just slightly behind in losing a share in the world currency market.

If BRICS stops using the USD, there will likely be a financial disaster in the United States, with hyperinflation wreaking havoc across all sectors in the US. However, losing the dollar as the medium of exchange worldwide is not the most significant danger for the American hegemony. Collaboration and stronger ties between the BRICS and emerging nations are essential. Xn Iraki, an associate professor in the Faculty of Business and Management Sciences of the University of Nairobi, offered this via China Daily:

“BRICS is at a watershed in terms of global economic organisations, with less-developed countries now having access to technology from more advanced ones and having an opportunity to diversify their exports and gain access to new sources of funding.”

The BRICS account for 37% of the world’s GDP, while the G7 only squeaked out 30%. With the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran joining the group, oil production on Earth will be firmly in the hands of BRICS members. US government data shows BRICS’ share of global oil production blossoming from 19% to 41% after the recent expansion.

The US dollar, which is increasingly weaponized through economic sanctions on Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and many other countries, will take the biggest hit if a BRICS counter currency situation arises. In America, increasingly burdensome debt and deficit spending on wars and programs that do not directly benefit the nation’s people will cause major internal problems.”

Chuck again…  first of all, I meant to write about how the dollar’s share of world trade had slipped again, but forgot, so I’m glad it was revisited here this morning…  2ndly… There are 40 or more countries that are asking to join the BRICS… This is going to become an us VS the world thing, I’m afraid… 

Market Price 12/28/2023: American Style: A$.6837, kiwi .6328, C$ .7560, euro 1.1116, sterling 1.2772, Swiss $1.1954, European Style: rand 18.5509, krone 10.1315, SEK 9.9297, forint 344.53, zloty 3.9010, koruna 22.2227, RUB 90.16, yen 140.80, sing 1.3178, HKD 7.8166, INR 83.17, China 7.1017, peso 16.89, BRL 4.8450, BBDXY 1,208.59, Dollar Index 100.79, Oil $73.06, 10-year 3.81%, Silver $24.31, Platinum $1,000.00, Palladium $1,143.00, Copper $3.96, and Gold… $2,075.69

That’s it for today, this week, and this year! Another year in the books! I’ve now been writing this letter for 30 years! That’s amazing to me, and I’m still surprised to find out someone from years past, still reads it! At a party I attended a couple of weeks ago, I ran into the University of St. Louis Economics Professor that used to come to our office and give us some views on current economics… She told me that she still reads the Pfennig each day… I was flabbergasted to say the least! But very proud of the fact that she still finds it to be worthy of reading! Well, tomorrow night is the Big Cotton Bowl Game, featuring my beloved Mizzou Tigers VS The Ohio State Buckeyes… A HUGE Game for Mizzou, and one I hope everyone comes to play in…  Fight Tigers fight for Ol’ Mizzou!  Well, the next time I talk to you it will be 2024, so I sure hope that if you go out to celebrate the NYE, that you do so carefully… My dad used to call NYE “amateurs’ night”… Ambrosia takes us to the finish line for the last time in 2023 with their song: I Keep Holding On To Yesterday…  Hey! that’s a pretty appropriate song for the last day (for me )!   I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and fun-filled NYE… be careful out there!  And don’t forget to Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• Currencies have gained VS the dollar while Chuck was gone!
• Gold continues to climb higher, while Silver lags…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Whew! I’m worn out from all the hub-bub of the holiday weekend, and a birthday to boot! I hope everyone had a very Blessed Christmas, and you were able to share the warmth of love with family and friends… I know, I did!  It was not a White Christmas here in the MidWest, as we had abnormal weather, albeit rainy, but not as cold… Over the weekend, Our Blues beat the Blackhawks, which is always a highlight of the hockey season… I reached out to a former H.S. classmate last week, and she responded to me, and we have renewed out acquaintance, I told her that “life is too short to forget friends”… There was lots of movement in the dollar and Gold last week, so we have lots to talk about today, and I might as well get started on it, eh?  Tim Janis plays his version of the song: Silent Night to greet me this morning… 

The trading last week was not of the volumes we normally see, since it was the week before Christmas, and so each day that went by, there was some story as to why the markets did what they did… I won’t bore you with each day’s chatter, but I will say that at the end of the week, the BBDXY has lost 7 index points, that put the index at 1,219 to end the week. That’s the lowest it’s been since the last week of this past July… It was then that I had said that it appeared that the dollar had exhausted its gains, and was ready for a long-term weak trend, only to have the PPT prove me wrong, once again… The PPT has a bad habit of doing that, in my opinion, for why can’t assets trade on their own merits without intervention? 

Gold has inched higher daily in the past week, and at the end of the week it was $2,052, which was $26 higher than it was on 12/18, the last day I wrote to you (other than the Christmas Pfennig) Now that was a great Santa Claus rally for Gold, eh? Silver has lagged but still ended the week at $24.18, which was 22-cents higher than when I left you on 12/18… There have been several articles written in the past 10 days, about the Industrial demand for physical Silver, and how that should increase the shortage of Silver, and how that should drive the price of Silver much higher… have these writers not noticed that supply and demand doesn’t dictate price in Silver any longer, instead its ruled by the short paper traders?  Oh well… it’s a good story to tell, about the shortage, and maybe we can get some buying out of it, but who knows? 

The price of Oil has really moved higher on the news that the Red Sea is being shut down to shipping, and that ships are having to go all the way around the Cape of Horn (Africa) to get to their destination, which incurs more shipping costs, and a higher price of Oil… Oil ended the week with a $74 handle… And the bond boys are still holding on to their thought that the Fed Heads will cut rates as soon as March 2024, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury remains below 4%… 

In yesterday’s trading, we saw a little more volume, but not much more… The dollar got sold once again, with the BBDXY showing a loss of 4 index points, and Gold gained $14.90 on the day to close at $2,067.50. Silver gained 5-cents on the day to close at $24.23… There was not a lot of activity in the markets yesterday, but more than there was last week… I would think that things might be muted through this week, with most of the senior traders still on the slopes or sipping pina coladas on the beach.  That kind of volume can lead to wild swings though… And through the years, I’ve seen some real wild ones this last week of the year, so be prepared…. 

On a side bar… Have you ever wondered why they word the sign ” Be Prepared To Stop”… that way?   I mean when you’re driving shouldn’t you always be prepared to stop?  These are the things in life that bug me… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold a little more and has dropped another index point in the BBDXY, while Gold inches higher by $2 in the early trading, and Silver gets old by 13-cents to start the day today… The price of Oil trades with a $75 handle this morning, while the 10-year’s yield is 3.86%… Those bond boys just are like a big ship that’s difficult to change directions quickly… 

With the price of Oil perking higher these days, the Petrol Currencies are frolicking in the sun… That is most of the Petrol Currencies, as the Russian ruble isn’t participating at this time… But the Mexican peso is at a level it hasn’t seen in a year of Sundays! Yes, it’s been that long!  The Brazilian real is rallying as is the Norwegian krone, so the rise in the price of Oil isn’t being ignored by most of the Petrol Currencies! 

Last week, I had a conversation with a guy who questioned my stating that the high U.S. debt was becoming unsustainable… (See? I still talk about this stuff when on vacation!)  He said that he saw no reason why the U.S. couldn’t just add as much debt as they wanted to…  I then went all ape on him and described what I’ve described for you dear readers for years, but will do so again… Having excessive Gov’t dept reduces economic activity by crowding out private capital formation and by requiring future tax increases or spending cuts to accommodate future interest payments. And those tax increases take away from consumer spending, which drives the car of GDP… AND furthermore, now that interest rates are higher, the debt is issued with higher yields, which means the servicing costs of those debts increases, and causes other items that the Gov’t deficit spends on, to go away, for they have to service the bond costs, and not their jackass spending programs…. 

And having the Gov’t overspend all the time, leads to consumers thinking that what’s good for the goose is good for the gander, and they overspend too… This was the headline on a story on CNBC.com this past weekend, “Couple has $520,000 in debt—and wife had no idea: ‘We’ve been living a life maybe we shouldn’t be living’   

t’s not uncommon for people to keep financial secrets from their partners. Nearly 1 in 4 Americans in relationships admit to keeping a money-related secret from their significant other, according to a 2023 Bankrate survey.

A $520,000 secret is a pretty big one, though.”

Chuck again… I would have to agree with the writer on that one…  But see, that’s just one example of overspending, and then realizing that you have overspent to the tune of over $500,000 or whatever amount! 

Changing gears… I found this on Wolf Street.com  “But overall and “core” PCE price indexes decelerated, on plunging gasoline prices, a dip in food prices, and a continued big drop in durable goods prices.

The fly in the ointment in today’s PCE Price Index by the Bureau of Economic Analysis was rent inflation, which accelerated in November from October, and has gotten stuck since March for the ninth month in a row with month-to-month increases that annualized were in the 6%-plus range.”

Ok, so from all that I read, the young folks are finding that owning a home is out of the question, because of 1. the house is too expensive, 2. the cost of a mortgage is preposterous, and 3. they probably have student debts up to their eyeballs, and their balance sheet is a mess…. So… they HAVE to rent… And from the looks of it rent inflation is not coming down… And it’s the same in prices of lots of things… food, health insurance, medicines, new cars, etc. the prices won’t be coming down any time soon… They have risen and will remain at those lofty levels for some time, because…. inflation is sticky… And once prices rise, they rarely come back down…  I’m just saying… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week is very lacking… The only piece of data that is worth its weight is the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which will be printed tomorrow… I think what we’ll see most of this week, the last trading week of the year, is book squaring trades, and last-minute tax situation trades… 

To recap… It was a weak trading, volume-wise, week leading up to Christmas, but through it all the dollar lost ground, and Gold moved significantly higher… If any thing, the short paper traders have been just topping off Gold & Silver’s daily rises… There are lost of things for Chuck to talk about today, so if you skipped again, be sure to go back and read them! He didn’t write them for his health, you know! 

For What It’s worth… In keeping with the thought that consumers overspend, I have this article for you this morning, that talks about how consumers are spent!  And it can be found here:America’s Debt Crisis: People Are Maxed Out – LewRockwell

Or, here’s your snippet: “Americans are largely maxed out when it comes to the amount of debt they have accumulated. Americans had surpassed a combined total of over $1 trillion in credit card debt back in August. Three months later, the balance had already gone up an additional $48 billion.

The August data came from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Household Debt and Credit Report for the second quarter of 2023 and it continues to worsen as Americans struggle under the weight of an oppressive ruling class and central bankers. According to CNET, what’s more alarming is that the cost of carrying this debt has also increased. Credit card APRs have gone up 30% in the last year and a half, eating away at consumers’ budgets more than ever before.

Credit card debt is just one type of debt we face in our lifetimes, along with mortgages, car loans, student loans, and medical debt. But the credit card is uniquely powerful. It’s comparatively easy to obtain. It’s aggressively marketed. It also heavily influences your credit score, the financial reputation marker that determines if and how you fund future milestone purchases.

Credit can be a lifeline for many in hard times, but it can also be quietly destructive. As the pace of inflation surpasses wage growth, it’s gotten harder to afford rent, utilities and groceries, forcing us to rely more on credit cards for everyday goods. –CNET

Americans Falling Behind on Credit Card and Loan Payments as Inflation Persists

People are being pushed to the brink of financial ruin as the ruling class continues to print more fiat currency to fund wars on the other side of the globe. All this is happening as consumerism and consumption rates rise in the United States.”

Chuck again… I agree with all of that, and have seen what this has done to some families… Please don’t let it happen to you! 

Market Prices 12/27/ 2023: American Style: A$ .6838, kiwi .6329, C$ .7574, euro 1.1082, sterling 1.2739, 

Swiss $1.1727, European Style: rand 18.5024, krone 10.1440, SEK 10.0014, forint 344.94, zloty 3.9193. 

koruna 22.2962, RUB 91.85, Yen 142.60, sing 1.3220, HKD 7.8094, INR 83.35, China 7.1474, peso 16.94, 

BRL 4.8169, BBDXY 1,214.67, Dollar Index 101.37, Oil $75.20, 10-year 3.86%, Silver $24.10, Platinum $976.00, Palladium $1,192, Copper $3.91, and Gold…. $2,069.11

That’s it for today… Yesterday was Kathy’s birthday… I think she had a grand day… I sang Happy Birthday to her, which I don’t think she enjoyed… But oh well… I tried!  Now, no mentions to Kathy that I talked about her this morning!  That means you Lisa and Lynn!  it’s time to tear down all the decorations we had put up in the house and outside the house… I do not like that whole process, for I love seeing out house all decorated…  I used to be a stickler about leaving the lights on the house until the Epiphany, Jan 6… but now I’m no longer here on that day, so they have to be taken down before… UGH!  I have Catholic training in me, from my days of youth, and I retain some of the stories, like the Epiphany… Somebody different is playing this morning, his name is Rick Gallagher and he’s playing his version of: Having A Wonderful Christmas Time as he takes us to the finish line today… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

T’was the Night Before Christmas

and all through my house

no longer were hammers hammering

And me and my spouse

sat down to count our blessings…

I’m older now, and wishing that Christmas

will always hold dear in my heart…

And so now with this message, I’ll start…

It’s the most wonderful time of the year…

It’s the hap-happiest time of all…

But there are dark clouds outside

And Chuck’s fears for us

He sure hopes he wrong with his call…

The song, My Favorite Things, is playing

and I think I’ll go through some of those right now

Family, friends, baseball, Gold, 

and music of all kinds, just not rap…

Days at my grill, and some cold beer on tap…

And I can’t forget my dear readers… 

They are the best!

What Will be your gift at Christmas? 

I’m hoping for peace, love of family, 

and good health, (for once!) 

less doctor visits, and more time spent

with my family and friends. 

I know that’s a lot to ask for

And I try not to get upset

when nothing is under my tree

now, don’t get all wet…

in the eyes, 

Let there be happiness, and joy

for all the girls and boys! 

Each year when I play Santa

I give out the gifts

that I think each recipient deserves

Now, don’t start a rift!

To my beautiful bride

I give my ever lasting love

To my darling daughter

I give my gift of laughter

To my strapping son

I give a strong back, 

and a water polo championship won!

To my youngest son

I give my gift of experience 

to get through life… 

To my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace

I give her my support to all her hopes and dreams…

To my grandsons, Braden And Everett

I give a day with “the General”  to help them grow up. 

And to my little Evie… 4 years old

I hope I never have to get mad at or even scold! 

The debts of the country are out of control

And Chuck has warned everyone for decades 

that his warnings began to sound old… 

I reach in my bag and I find no more gifts

But I still have my friends, and dear readers

to give them something… What could it be?

I guess you’ll have to come back next year

to find out what I came up with… 

I have one final wish and it’s for one and all…

And that is: may you know the warmth of love, 

and wrap it all around you, this Christmas… 

So, I heard him exclaim as he drove out of sight

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night!