China’s A Shares Get Added To The MSCI!

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! I’ve done my share of Tub Thumpin’ the last two nights, and with today being an infusion day, I’ll have to leave all the Tub Thumpin’ to all of you! Please Tub Thump responsibly! HA! I’m greeted this morning by Chicago, and their song: Old Days… I was just doing some writing yesterday for an article, and talked about the old days of arriving at a currency’s value… Pretty interesting stuff, I must say!

The dollar strength that was being displayed all over the globe yesterday, has faded, but there’s really been no turn-around, just consolidation of the dollar moves on Tuesday and yesterday morning. The Gold price finally saw some light of day, but the price of Oil slipped further, falling to the $42 handle in the past 24 hours…

Let’s start with Gold today, you know, mix it up a bit, and see where it takes us, eh? Well… Gold didn’t do much again yesterday… Closing up only $3.70… I said yesterday morning when it was up nearly $5 in the early morning trading that it would be interesting to see what happened when the short Gold paper traders arrived… Well it didn’t take long to figure out what they thought! And the short Gold paper traders saw to it that Gold’s mini-rally didn’t go any further…

Then there was this article that showed up on the site, from Simona Gambarini — with the job title of “commodity economist,” reports that “gold’s luck has run out” with the 25-basis-point nudge in rates by the Fed. She further explains that her predicted two more rate hikes will cause even more money to leave the gold market.

I about fell out of my chair folks… As the U.S. economist, Dave Kranzler, responds to the GATA folks, “Hmmm. … “If Gambarini were a true economist, she would have conducted enough research of interest rates to know that every cycle in which the Fed raises the Fed Funds rate is accompanied by a rise in the price of gold. This is because the market perceives the Fed to be “behind the curve” on rising inflation, something to which several Fed heads have alluded.”

I’ll also throw in my two-cents, and say HOGWASH to those two more rate hikes! I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, by the end of summer the Fed will be putting a halt on their plans to hike rates, and by Rocktober, they will be beginning their reversal that will eventually lead to QE4, and maybe even negative rates! Let’s see what Ms. Gambarini says then about Gold!

Whew! give me a minute while I climb down from the soapbox…  OK, I’m back on terra firma now, and ready to talk about something else!  The BIG NEWS yesterday involved China, so let’s talk about that for a minute.. I told you a couple of weeks ago that the MSCI (Morgan Stanley Corp Index) International Index was contemplating adding Chinese A share stocks to this index, and I said that they probably would add them, after telling the Chinese no, the previous 3 times they were up for adoption.

This deal comes with some parameters, as only 222 of Big Cap stocks were admitted, and since the Chinese like to “suspend stocks”, any stocks that had been suspended in the past 50 days were excluded. There was no discussion as to how the index would treat the 10% rule that the Chinese have on their stocks… No stock that gains or loses 10% in one day is allowed to trade further that day.  But here’s the real benefit for China…

You see, their stocks and currency will get a wider distribution, which has been a goal of the Chinese to gain a wider distribution of their currency for over a decade now. China has a lot of debt problems that they’ve created in creating an infrastructure that’s second to none. Have you seen the new Beijing Airport? They also keep their citizens happy by spending lots of money… And they have something called WMP’s, which is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme, but… China always seems to be able to weather their storms, and while a collapse of the WMP’s could bring on major damage to the economy and China’s reserves, the Gov’t continues to make inroads to having a free floating currency, that will most likely be backed by some percentage of Gold…

Earlier this morning, the Norges Bank met (Norway’s Central Bank) and like I said on Tuesday when I went through the events of the week, the Norges Bank left rates unchanged…  But also like I said on Tuesday, Norway has seemed to have weathered the storm from the drop in the price of Oil, which they had leaned on very heavily through the years.

Here’s a comment from the Norges Bank this morning after the announcement of no rate change. “Capacity utilization in the Norwegian economy appears to be higher than envisaged earlier. Inflation is lower than expected and may continue to drift down in the months ahead, but increased activity and receding unemployment suggest that inflation will pick up. Inflation expectations appear to be firmly anchored. Low house price inflation will curb debt accumulation, but it will take time for household vulnerabilities to recede.”

“The Executive Board’s current assessment of the outlook and the balance of risks suggests that the key policy rate will remain at today’s level in the period ahead,” says Governor Øystein Olsen.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) also left their Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75% and in out going RBNZ Gov. Wheeler’s dwindling opportunities to diss kiwi strength, chose to just briefly mention that a weaker kiwi would help rebalance the growth outlook towards the tradables sector. Hmmm… what’s gotten into Wheeler? Has he gotten soft on kiwi strength? I really don’t know, but this is just not like him. Maybe he sees the light at the end of the tunnel, which will come when he steps down from his post in September…  Not that I want him to be himself with regards to dissing kiwi strength, I’m just being a Curious George here…

Kiwi did gain some ground after the OCR announcement, and no major dissing of the currency… So, kiwi has that going for it today!

Next week’s article for the Dow Theory Letters is going to be about what I talked about some yesterday, and that will be all about the euro… I’m putting the finishing touches on it today… is the website where these articles will print on Thursdays, but you have to pay for a subscription to the site, which is very good, with different writers each day, and ending the week with the Aden Sisters, so if it floats your boat, set sail my friends!

The U.S. Data Cupboard is still being restocked, but we will see the color of the latest, Leading Indicators Index today… This report and Capacity Utilization are about the only two forward looking pieces of economic data, so I’ll be watching for the data print today… On Tuesday, the U.S. Current Account Deficit for the 1st QTR printed, and printed worse than expected… The forecasters had the deficit around $112 Billion, but the actual print was $117 Billion!!!!!!   UGH, when will the deficit spending every stop? When the wall of debt comes crashing down, that’s when!

To recap… The dollar strength of Tuesday through Wednesday morning faded into consolidation yesterday, and the currencies and metals have won a little of the lost ground back… Both the Norges Bank and the RBNZ left rates unchanged and really didn’t have much to say about their no rate moves either. Strange that RBNZ Gov. Wheeler wasn’t out dissing kiwi strength! Gold finally saw some light of day yesterday, but its gain was kept to just $3.70… And the price of Oil slipped further falling to the $42 handle…

For what It’s Worth… In 2003, I remember sitting in our convertible mustang, as the three Amigos, Chuck, Duane and Rick were setting out to find Roger Dean Stadium on our first trip to Spring Training together. And Duane asked me what was on my mind regarding the U.S. economy. (now this was long before they realized they should never ask me stuff like that!) And I responded that I had been reading and writing about something that really troubled me, and that was the underfunding that was going on with Pensions.. That’s right I said that in 2003… And I’ve been writing about it since, sounding like a broken record, I guess, but still it goes on and on, and keeps getting larger and larger… Look at Illinois, they’ve now been ordered by a Court to pay bills, but they have no money, and their State Pension is grossly underfunded!

Well, any-old-way you look at it, Chuck was out there seeing stuff that was going to be a problem, long before anyone else did, and that brings me to today’s FWIW… It’s an article on Bloomberg, that talks about GE’s pension shortfall, and when I say shortfall, I’m being kind to GE! You can find the article here:

Or, here’s your snippet: “It’s a problem that Jeffrey Immelt largely ignored as he tried to appease General Electric Co.’s most vocal shareholders.

But it might end up being one of the costliest for John Flannery, GE’s newly anointed CEO, to fix.

At $31 billion, GE’s pension shortfall is the biggest among S&P 500 companies and 50 percent greater than any other corporation in the U.S. It’s a deficit that has swelled in recent years as Immelt spent more than $45 billion on share buybacks to win over Wall Street and pacify activists like Nelson Peltz.

Part of it has to do with the paltry returns that have plagued pensions across corporate America as ultralow interest rates prevailed in the aftermath of the financial crisis. But perhaps more importantly, GE’s dilemma underscores deeper concerns about modern capitalism’s all-consuming focus on immediate results, which some suggest is short-sighted and could ultimately leave everyone — including shareholders themselves — worse off.”

Chuck again.. well, there’s no reason for me to pile on here… You know when I played football, I was usually the guy that made the first hit and then as we fell to the ground, I got piled on. I always hated that feeling of being at the bottom of a pie of people, especially other football players! Yes, I was what my dad would call, a “pretty good country athlete”, but that was in a different life, for if you’ve seen me in my adult life, I no more look like any kind of athlete! HA! (maybe a Sumo wrestler! HA)

Currencies today 6/22/17… American Style: A$ .7540, kiwi .7253, C$ .7510, euro 1.1165, sterling 1.2665, Swiss $ .9736, … European Style: rand 13.0052, krone 8.4890, SEK 8.7398, HUF 276.65, zloty 3.7957, koruna 23.5154, RUB 59.82, yen 111.33, sing 1.39, HKD 7.8003, INR 64.56, China 6.8287, peso 18.17, BRL 3.3268, Dollar Index 97.55, Oil $42.66, 10-year 2.16%, Silver $16.59, Platinum $927.73, Palladium $888.07, and Gold… $1,251.60

That’s it for today… Running a bit later this morning, but no biggie! A great day for me yesterday, I was sent the subscriber list for the Pfennig, which means, we can load it up now and maybe by tomorrow, but probably Monday the emailed Pfennig will be going out once again! YAHOO! Things are looking up once again for yours truly… I do have to get a chemo infusion today though, so I’ll deal with that later this morning, and hopefully it doesn’t rain on my parade! Another extra inning win for my beloved Cardinals last night. But like I told my friend Dennis Miller, winning extra inning games against the worse team in baseball, isn’t what I would call “good wins”… But a win is a win, right?  Ok.. time to get going. The iPod has reshuffled and we’re being taken to the finish line today by Billy Squier and his song: My Kind Of Lover…  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, and Be Good To Yourself!


Chuck Butler


AKiss of Death, Or Just A Good Call?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Another beautiful day here in St. Louis yesterday. As I’ve always said, “if this keeps up, we won’t be able to afford to live here!” But you won’t ever hear me complain about Chamber of Commerce weather! I’ve whined enough over the years about cold weather, and how I had to go where it’s warm, so you won’t catch me changing horses in the middle of the stream! Steely Dan greets me this morning with their song: Reeling In The Years… (I do love me some Steely Dan!)

Well, Monday’s non-movement in most investment assets, was replaced by some currency volatility, and dollar strength. This dollar strength has stretched its tentacle across the globe, and there doesn’t seem to be one currency that was able to escape the dollar’s moves. The worst performing asset yesterday was Oil, which lost the $44 handle, and is sinking quickly toward $42, as it trades this morning at $43.34.

This awful performance in Oil had really set the Petrol Currencies back on their heels, and this time even the head scratching loonie has seen some value taken from it. While the price of Oil was rebounding earlier this year, the lead dog of the Petrol Currencies, the Russian ruble, would be out front ratcheting up gains VS the dollar, hand over fist… But now that the bloom is off the rose of the Oil price, the ruble is getting hammered daily…

And don’t think for a minute that the ruble’s current hammering isn’t also tied to the aggressive stance against the U.S’s shooting down of a Syrian plane earlier this week. I know, it’s just words between Russia and the U.S. but as I explained yesterday, this is no time to be ticking off Russia…  We’re so stretched and bogged down in the Middle East, and all that is worrying the bejeebers out of me!

The euro hasn’t really lost much ground to the dollar as I look at the currency screen this morning. The euro is still sniffing around the 1.1150 figure this morning, which to me, is pretty impressive, given the dollar strength being displayed around the globe!  And that brings me to the soapbox, where I’m going to step up and make a call… Are you ready for this? OK, here goes!

First off, I sure hope this doesn’t turn out to be the Old Chuck’s Kiss of Death… But I’m so confident about this thought that it might be able to overcome that Kiss of Death, that usually comes along once I talk glowingly about something! OK, enough beating around the bush, for that’s just not my bag, baby!

tap, tap, tap, is the microphone on? Testing, one, two, three… Can you hear me in the back? Good! OK, Ahem, here goes.. I believe that the strong dollar trend is coming to an end, and the main beneficiary of that will be the euro.. More and more I read and see that traders are growing more and more concerned about the weakening economy here in the U.S. and the fact that the Fed keeps hiking rates into that weakening.

While in the Eurozone, we’re seeing the European Central Bank beginning to warm up to removing their accommodating monetary policy, as the Eurozone economy spools up and inflation returns to the region’s economies. I read this and it is so good, that I have to use it now… Right now the euro is like the Jack-in-the-Box right before it starts to pop out…

Back in 2002, I wrote a white paper titled: 2003, The Year of the Euro… I’m thinking I need to pull that out and dust it off, and say that 2017-18 is going to be the New Year of the Euro! I know, I know, the Eurozone has its own set of problems, but you see sentiment really drives currencies these days, and the sentiment toward the dollar is eroding quickly, while the sentiment toward a recovery in the Eurozone seems to be “in vogue”… So, I’ve told you this before, but here goes… I learned early in my career that spans back to 1973 (I know I don’t look that old do I? HAHAHA!) and that is that “the markets are never wrong”…

What that means is of course they could be wrong, and I’ve pointed how wrong it was several times through the years, but weather its wrong or not, if the markets have an axe to grind on some asset, then don’t stand in their way. They may be wrong about it, but that doesn’t matter one iota, so don’t forget that!

Gold sure can’t get off the canvas, where it has been knocked down from a flurry of shots from the dollar, and the short Gold paper traders, of course! Yesterday, Gold tried to mount a rally, but was stopped short of the border, and ended the day with a $1 loss… No biggie, but a loss nonetheless, in a time period that just won’t let Gold loose…  I say that, but in the early morning trading today, Gold has mustered up a $4 gain, so we’ll have to wait-n-see if “da boyz” as Ed Steer calls them want to take their pound of flesh again today from Gold’s value…

In 2006, my friends, Addison Wiggin of Agora Financial, and Bill Bonner, the creator of the Agora Publishing Company, co-wrote a book titled: Empire of Debt… The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis… In the book the two tell the history of many republics through history that turned into Empires and then crumbled because of a couple of things. Extending their armies too thin, and running up huge debts that had them find ways to deal with the debt, like debasing the money, and raising taxes, until the money could be debased any longer, nor could taxes be raised any higher, and the Empire crumbled… The two did this history lesson to compare the greatest empire in the world at the time, The Roman Empire, to the U.S. Empire… And yesterday, in Bill Bonner’s Diary, he compared the two again, but only this time he used a comparison of Trump and Julius Caesar… Boy, did this bring back memories of history classes, then reading the Empire of Debt, and then the follow-up The New Empire of Debt that came out in 2009…

I thought it would be fun to go through some of the things we worried about in 2006 with regards to debt…
In 1987 Consumer Credit (read debt) was $672.2 Billion.. in 2006 it was $2.1 Trillion, and in 2017 it is $2.8 Trillion
In 1987 Total Household Debt was $2.7 Trillion. In 2006 it was $$10.764 Trillion, and in 2017 it is $12.73 Trillion
In 1987 Domestic Business Debt was $1.9 Trillion. In 2006 It was $5.2 Trillion, and in 2017 it is $5.9 Trillion
And the kicker of things that I think foretell us a recession is near… the last time I was invited to speak at the Agora Financial Symposium in Vancouver, B.C. was 2015… And I brought this little ditty to the audience then… The total U.S. current Debt, which included: Gov’t, State, Business, and individual debt had crossed $60 Trillion for the first time! Well that was 2015, guess what that number is today? Well, if you said more than $67 Trillion, you would be the winner, winner, Chicken dinner!

All this debt is unsustainable, and while that’s quite evident, it’s not imminent, but… What if it was? What would you do? Well, I think that most likely you would scramble to find a reputable Gold dealer… But by then it will be too late, because of all the people that listened to people like me and told them that time to buy insurance is before the floods… I often use this saying.. That’s too late to remind yourself to drain the swamp when you’re up to your rear with alligators! Don’t wait for the alligators, folks… That’s all I’m saying…

Whew! my fat fingers were flying all over the keyboard, as the thoughts just kept coming into my head about the Empire of Debt.. And like I said above, the damage to the dollar from all this debt, might be evident, but it’s not imminent just yet… And that brings me to another thought… I’ve long said that “we’re turning Japanese”, following the Japanese down this deep, dark, dangerous (look at me being the poet! HA) road of debt accumulation. And it’s been pointed out to me that the yen hasn’t really suffered from all their debt..  Well, I guess that’s their opinion, because it’s in my mind that not that too long ago, the yen was trading about 80, and today it’s 111..  (it’s a European priced currency so the higher the number the less in value it returns in dollars, because it takes more of the currency to equal a dollar)

A couple of years ago, yen was 120-ish, and looking like it was going to 150, and I still think that’s where it belongs, given the fundamentals of the country, along with the demographics, and their inability to reform, but Japan still enjoys this “safe haven” status, which just boggles my mind to no end. Safe from what? over 3 decades of an economic funk and deflation? Oh, please sir, may I have another?  NOT!

So, I was really on my horse this morning about debt, Gold, the dollar, yen, and the euro, but those were the things on my mind today… So, guess who gets to share in my thoughts today? You dear reader! HA!

The HA! and HAHAHAHA! that I use in the Pfennig, I borrowed from my good friend, the Great Mogambo Guru (MGM)… He calls me a Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR)… And quotes me from time to time… Many years ago, and I mean many years ago, when he first quoted me, he said that he didn’t know why he was quoting me, because I had never sent him any candy or flowers…  So, reading that, I found out his address and sent me a bouquet of flowers with a box of candy, as if we were long lost lovers! HA! And we’ve been friends since… I even carry around with me every day for luck, a Mogambo Guru minted Silver Coin, with his mug and his saying on the coin… “This Investing Stuff Is Easy… Wheeee!”

To recap, it was a good day for the dollar yesterday, as the no-movement Monday, turned into a terrible Tuesday for the currencies and the price of Oil, which continues to drive lower… Chuck gets up on the soapbox for the euro, and has a flashback to 2006 and reading the Empire of Debt… You’ll want to check out the debt numbers that Chuck throws out there today…

For What It’s Worth… Well, I spent some time on the price of Oil today, and so when I came across this article on Bloomberg, I thought it played nicely in the sandbox with what I had said, so here’s the article’s link where you can read it all:

Or, here’s your snippet… “Shale producers risk drowning in their own surplus — again.

On Tuesday, oil slid into its first bear market in 10 months, falling 21 percent from its high for the year. The swoon dragged down driller shares amid concern that unceasing production from U.S. shale fields is overwhelming OPEC efforts to ease a global supply glut.

Explorers who came of age at a time when ever-increasing production was rewarded with ever-higher prices are now having a bit of a déjà vu from their fall from grace in 2014.

The S&P 500 Energy Index has lost 14 percent this year, while West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, has fallen 19 percent. Buoyed by prices that hit $54.45 a barrel in February, U.S. explorers have boosted the number of rigs drilling for oil to the highest since mid-2015, and expanded their production to 9.33 million barrels a day.
“A lot of faith and hope and belief was put into” the deal by OPEC, Russia and other exporters to cut their production as a way to balance the market, said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund. But “it’s proven ineffectual.”

Chuck again…  ramp up production, have a glut in supplies and watch the price tumble, then shut down production, and watch the price recover, then rinse and repeat the whole shebang over again… When will these guys ever learn?

Currencies today 6/21/17… American Style: A$.7570, kiwi .7241, C$ .7520, euro 1.1148, sterling 1.2626, Swiss $.9743, … European Style: rand 13.0269, krone 8.5434, SEK 8.7737, HUF 277.35, zloty 3.8042, koruna 23.5715, RUB 59.69, yen 111.15, sing 1.3898, HKD 7.80, INR 64.58, China 6.8272, peso 3.3274, peso 18.27, Dollar Index 97.66, Oil $43.34, 10-year 2.16%, Silver $16.45, Platinum $922.65, Palladium $873.91, and Gold $1,247.60

That’s it for today… Had a great night last night, as a few of my buddies stopped by to watch the baseball game with me outside, since it was such a beautiful night… And it ended up with a Cardinals extra inning win, so all-in-all a good night… I got the word yesterday, that the subscriber list is ready, which means it won’t be too much longer before I can get back to sending out the daily letter by email! YAHOO! But, I do like the set up with the website so far… But the emailed letter can reach so many more, that don’t want to have to bookmark a website and them remember to visit it each day! Boy, we sure have become spoiled haven’t we?  HA!  Elvis Presley takes us to the finish line today, and yes, I said Elvis! with his song: Can’t Help Falling In Love… Come on admit it, you slow danced with an old flame to this song at sometime!  And with that, it’s time to tell you that I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday!  And don’t forget to be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler



Debt Goes On and On, Like The Energizer Bunny!

Good day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! That felt good just typing that phrase to begin our day here. I’m still as excited as a kid at Christmas that I get to keep writing the Pfennig, thanks to my good friends, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden. I also want to thank my long-time good friend, and former boss, Frank Trotter, for all his help in getting the Pfennig moved and all the technical expertise he added, for I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to “tech stuff”…  The late, great, Dan Fogelberg greets me this morning with his song: The Last Nail… I used to play that song on my guitar, one of my fave songs to play too!

Well, we start the day today with not much movement in the currencies, metals, bonds, and commodities… But that doesn’t mean we won’t see some action in these assets as the day goes on, because…

it’s going to be a busy week with data from overseas, Central Bank meetings, and meeting minutes being printed. So, let’s get right down the business today… First off the Central Bank meetings… the Norges Bank is first up.. and while the markets all expect the Norges Bank (Norway’s Central Bank) to remain on hold… I’m getting the feeling that they are ready to wet their interest rate powder, with inflation running above 2%, and the economy getting weaned off of the fact that they were so dependent on Oil. But… I really don’t believe that the Norges Bank will wet their powder until the European Central Bank (ECB) begins to unwind their accommodative monetary stance. But to hear the Norges Bank talk about how things are looking better, would go a long way to correcting this recent bout of weakness in the krone.

Next up will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)… The RBNZ too is ready to wet their interest rate powder, but… with Australia struggling with their mining, because of weak prices of raw materials, I do believe the RBNZ is on hold until, things turn around in commodity prices. The RBNZ has been ready for a couple of months now, and unfortunately, it will take them a few months more, but like I said a couple of months ago… This is a rare opportunity for individual investors to get the opportunity to buy a currency, in this case kiwi, before the Central Bank raises rates, but knowing that an interest rate hike is coming… But just like a lot of things the rate hike in New Zealand is evident, but not imminent at this time.

And finally, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will print their last meeting’s Minutes… I don’t expect much here, other than the things I told you were said at the press conference after the last RBA meeting. That the RBA is optimistic, but still sees dangers out there in the world, that could bring the whole recovery down.

As far as data around the world is concerned there are only two that really mean anything (to me that is), and that is Canadian inflation, and the Eurozone’s flash PMI (manufacturing index)… In yesterday’s return to the saddle for me and the Pfennig, I talked about the Canadian dollar/ loonie, and said that the loonies recent strength had the markets scratching their collective heads, as to why this was, given the price of Oil had remained quite weak.. But after the Canadian inflation report prints this week, and shows that inflation has dropped, that might not be the thing that would keep the loonie running hot..

The Eurozone’s Flash PMI’s should show another improvement in manufacturing for the Eurozone… These are the flash reports, not the final ones, but I don’t really believe that there’s ever that much change between the flash and real reports that come later in the month. So, maybe the euro can get some love from the flash report when it prints on Thursday.

Here in the U.S. the Data Cupboard isn’t filled with real economic data this week, but we will see the color of the Current Account Deficit for the 1st QTR today, and it should print about $112 Billion… More debt, I just shake my head in disbelief that we, as a country, continue to allow this deficit spending to go on and on like the Energizer Bunny! But, it’s what the Joneses are doing! China, the U.K., Eurozone, and shoot even Canada have gone this route, and I still can’t believe that it won’t all end up in tears…

But, that’s a discussion for another day, or maybe the Butler Patio, I don’t want to take up all my space today with another beat down on debt… You, dear long-time reader, know all too well that I’ve been banging the drum on our rising debt for many years now, and well, I guess sometimes I’ve sounded like the boy who cried wolf, but one day, that wolf will come knocking on our door…

Well, Gold got smacked by almost $10 ($9.80) yesterday… We have geopolitical tensions rising in the Middle East again, this time between the U.S. and Russia, and then throw in Iran and the tensions get thick, but that hasn’t helped Gold to recover any at this point. But then the paper Gold traders who short the heck out of the metal, don’t really care about geopolitical tensions…  I think it best to switch gears here and let you listen in to Ed Steer’s thoughts on the Gold price from his letter this morning that can be found at:… Here’s Ed..

“I would suspect that the reason there wasn’t more volume in gold is because that particular moving average is still intact, but I doubt that ‘da boyz’ will stop at this juncture. I would also suspect that there’s not much more to go in silver, but there must be something, or the price would not have declined yesterday. It’s the very act of the Managed Money traders selling long positions — and going short as well, that causes prices to fall. So until these traders are drained dry, the engineered price decline in silver will continue, using the engineered price decline in gold as a hammer to continue pounding on the silver price. This is what Ted Butler has been going on about for decades now — and that few other so-called precious metal ‘analysts’ just won’t touch.” – Ed Steer

I know, I know, I told you some time ago that I wasn’t going to go down that price manipulation of Gold street anymore, but that was then, and this is now, a fresh restart for the Pfennig, and you can expect more of this going forward! Because it’s just to difficult to ignore any longer, folks..  Tomorrow, I’m going to print a communication from long ago that proves what I’ve been saying all along that the price of Gold is manipulated to keep the dollar alive and well..  So, there’s the teaser for you to come back tomorrow! (goes to show you that I won’t stop at anything to get you to come back and read again tomorrow! HA!)

The FWIW section today has the great James Grant taking on someone that basically pooh-poohed the idea of a Gold Standard…

Well, I have a project for you… sit down at your computers and fire off a letter to your congressman and ask them why on earth did they not only extend the economic sanctions on Russia but add to them last week!  I read a very interesting article yesterday about how in poker, if you don’t find out who the sucker in the game is, It’s you!  And how in poker it’s usually a good idea to side up with someone to get everyone else out of the game until it come down to just you two…

So, take that idea to the negotiations that the U.S. is attempting to have with China to get involved in the N. Korea problem…  So, the U.S. is not gaining any friends needed to get both of these things accomplished… They’ve ticked off the Russians with the added sanctions, and will most likely end up ticking off the Chinese with our demands that they get involved with N, Korea… That’s not gaining any advantage here folks… But then what the heck do we care, the gang’s all here!

So, long-time readers know how I like to personal experiences and parlay them into thoughts about the economy, right? Well, I was listening to a woman talk about her son’s experience in attempting to find a house to buy, because his rent has risen so high that if he could find the right house, he would be spending less on his house payment, insurance, etc. than he was paying on his rent…  Now that’s crazy folks!

In 2005, 2006, home ownership in this country rose to 69% from 64% previously, after the Financial Meltdown, home ownership fell back to below 64%, and people began to rent again… That’s when rents began to explode in price, and brings us to where we are now, with rents hitting a high, and now appearing to suffer from over exposure to high prices…

Now, the reason I bring all this up is that I’ve talked about how home prices have begun to drop again, and now we can add rent prices dropping… Now all this is good for the consumer, but not the investor who might own some REITS in these areas…  (Real Estate Investment Trusts) So, this is just a warning to those that do own them, yes they’ve been great investments in the past 8 years, but, maybe they’re getting a little long in the tooth, eh?

A full service letter is what I strive to bring you each day folks… Nothing held back, any longer, and full-on Chuck! The way things used to be… I sure hope you like it this way…  More on the currencies tomorrow, there just wasn’t much to talk about there given the small moves yesterday and in the overnight trading.

To recap… The Norges Bank and RBNZ meet this week, but no moves are expected. The RBA prints their latest meeting minutes. And we get some data from overseas this week, while the U.S. Data Cupboard gets restocked… Chuck is concerned that the U.S. hasn’t gained any friends in their negotiations with China, and Ed Steer gives us his thoughts on the Gold manipulation today… All that and more!

For What It’s Worth…  Well, I gave you teaser above about the great James Grant taking on someone regarding the Gold Standard, so there’s no reason to beat around the bush here… I found this on the GATA communique’ that they send me each day… And I thank Ed Steer for securing my place with the GATA folks!   if you have subscription to the WSJ you can also find it here:      So, here’s James Grant.. enjoy!

“Mr. Ledbetter’s book is a chronicle of the American people’s fascination with gold. He is mystified and bemused by it. He rolls his eyes at the gold rushes and the gold-centered orthodoxies of yesteryear. Whatever were our forbearers thinking?  (Jeffrey Ledbetter is the author of a book titled: One Nation Under Gold)

It’s no work at all to make modern money. Since the start of the 2008 financial crisis, the world’s central bankers have materialized the equivalent of $12.25 trillion. Just tap, tap, tap on a computer keypad.
“One Nation Under Gold” is a brief against the kind of money you have to dig out of the ground. And you do have to dig. The value of all the gold that’s ever been mined (and which mostly still exists in the form of baubles, coins and ingots), according to the World Gold Council, is a mere $7.4 trillion.

Gold anchored the various metallic monetary systems that existed from the 18th century to 1971. They were imperfect, all right, just as James Ledbetter bends over backward to demonstrate. The question is whether the gold standard was any more imperfect than the system in place today.
That system features monetary oversight by former university economics faculty—the Ph.D. standard, let’s call it. The ex-professors buy bonds with money they whistle into existence (“quantitative easing”), tinker with interest rates, and give speeches about their intentions to buy bonds and tinker with interest rates (“forward guidance”).

You wonder how the Ph.D. standard came to eclipse a system whose very name, “gold standard,” is a byword for excellence. Addressing a national television audience on Sunday evening, Aug. 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon announced the temporary suspension of the dollar’s convertibility into gold. No more would foreign governments enjoy the right to trade in their greenbacks for bullion at the then standard rate of $35 to the ounce. (Americans had long since relinquished that right; indeed, as Nixon spoke, they could not legally own gold.) Roughly a half-century later, the temporary suspension is beginning to look permanent.” – James Grant

Chuck again… Oh, and there’s so much more from James Grant on this book that I just don’t have the space for… But you get the point, Mr. Ledbetter thinks we’re all crazy to be so fascinated with Gold, and the great James Grant puts him in his place!

There is one good thing that came from the book though, and that is this story about “operation Goldfinger” it’s a very interesting story about what was going on while Gold was tied to a price of $35, and individuals were prohibited form owning Gold…  Maybe I’ll write an article about this because it’s very interesting indeed!

Currencies today 6/20/17… American Style: A$ .7615, kiwi .7257, C$ .7563, euro 1.1158, sterling 1.27, Swiss $.9736, … European Style: rand 13.0514, krone 8.4866, SEK 8.7315, HUF 275.97, zloty 3.7835, koruna 23.5342, RUB 58.09, yen 111.54, sing 1.3870, HKD 7.7993, INR 64.43, China 6.8102, peso 18.07, BRL 3.2895, Dollar Index 97.63, Oil $44.11, 10-year 2.18%, Silver $16.55, Platinum $92843, Palladium $866.35, and Gold $1,247.80 ( I lost my link to the SGE Gold price, and haven’t been able to find a good one to replace it, so until I do, no SGE price, sorry!)

That’s it for today… What a Beautiful Day it was here in St. Louis yesterday, not too hot, a nice southerly breeze, just fantabulous! Alex was here on Sunday after he got off work, and was telling us about his experiences in his summer school class: Gross Anatomy… His mom was shocked that he actually was cutting open humans that were dead of course! Every parent that had or has a child go through this kind of training has had to experience this shock! Chicago takes us to the finish line today with their song: Movin’ On, which really featured the great lead guitar playing of the late great Terry Kath, who we lost many years ago, and way too soon.. The great Jimmy Hendrix once told the sax player for Chicago, that Terry Kath was a better guitar player than he was! WOW! Oh well, with that, I’ll get out of your hair for today, and send you on your way to having a Tom Terrific Tuesday!


Chuck Butler



Global Food Prices Soar In August…

September 7, 2021

* jobs disappoint on Friday, but dollar rallies last night!

* Who will step up to buy our Treasuries when the Cartel drops out? 

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! How was your Labor Day Holiday weekend? Mine was full of family, food, and baseball… Saturday it rained off and on all day, but I had a large umbrella over my Big Green Egg, as I had it smoking a pork but, that took 12 hours to cook to the temp I needed it to get to… It was quite yummy to eat on Sunday! The weather here has turned to almost like fall-like weather, which I’ve always said, that the fall weather, is the best weather we get here where I live, 9 months a year. Well, my beloved Cardinals might as well begin packing their golf clubs into their cars, because they’re not going to make the playoffs, and they  have 26 games remaining in the regular season… UGH! When they pitch, they don’t hit, when they hit, they don’t pitch, It’s been like this all season long…  R.E.M. greets me this morning with their mega hit song: Losing My Religion… Which is what I was doing Sunday when the Cardinals blew a 4-run lead in the 9th inning! 

Well, the global markets were open yesterday, but with the U.S. closed, there was little volume to speak about… On Friday last week, the markets got a jolt when the Jobs Jamboree only produced a number of jobs created in August of 247,000… The so-called experts were expected 720,000 up from the early weak forecasts of 600,000…  I took the following from Ed Steer’s Saturday letter:

“The labor market recovery hit the brakes this month with a dramatic showdown in all industries,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist at jobs site Glassdoor. “Ultimately, the Delta variant wave is a harsh reminder that the pandemic is still in the driver’s seat, and it controls our economic future.”

Chuck again… And of the 247,000 jobs that were reported for August, 142,000 of them were created out of thin air by the BLS… So, the actual numbers from the surveys only reflected 105,000 jobs created… Well, needless to say the markets received a major jolt, and awakening if you will, of the problems that still lie ahead for this economy…

So, what does that mean for the Cartel, and their wanting to begin tapering by year end? Well, one awful jobs report doesn’t make a trend, so we’ll have to see what the next couple of months bring us in the way of Jobs reports before we know for sure what the Cartel is thinking… I would say though that this report did cause them reason to pause…

And the dollar got sold on Friday, the BBDXY was 1,143.83 on Thursday morning… By the time they closed the books on Friday afternoon the BBDXY had fallen to 1,139.86… The euro was nearing 1.19, the Aussie dollar (S$) traded through 73-cents into the 74-cents handle. And all the other currencies came in line behind the Big Dog euro. Gold & Silver had big rallied on Friday, but then the price manipulators came in capped their gains… Gold gained $18 on the day, and closed the week at $1,827.60, and Silver gained 78-cents on Friday to close the week at $24.67

Those price manipulators really ticked me off on Friday… I was sitting here watching Gold tick higher and higher throughout the day, and then suddenly, the higher moves stopped, and the price began to back off… It wasn’t profit taking because the moves downward came in chunks… But I can’t do anything but call them out for their shenanigans, so I’ll just move along, and not let them bring me down it’s only castles burning, just find someone who’s turning, and you will come around (Neil Young)

In yesterday’s low volumes Gold gave back $4.60 and Silver gave back 2-cents… Gold closed yesterday at $1,824.00 and Silver closed at $24.65… The BBDXY came back to 1,140.80 from 1,139.80 on Friday, but the upward moves the currencies made VS the dollar on Friday were not wiped out completely, just some downward movement that’s all…

In the overnight markets last night…. Well, the dollar rebounded big time in the overnight markets, last night… The BBDXY rose to 1,143 from its close yesterday of 1,140…  The euro which was knocking on the door to 1.19 on Friday, has given back a chunk of its gains, and don’t look now but Gold & Silver really is starting the day in the red… Gold is down $12.50 this morning and Silver is down 39-cents…  What on earth did the foreign markets see that would cause them to buy dollars?  I’ll try to find out more for tomorrow’s Pfennig… 

So, just quick recap of the data prints last week… 99% of them were disappointing and didn’t meet expectations… Has the “high” from the free coke, I mean money worn off? Or, as I’ve been trying to press upon… The stimulus that was passed through saw most of it go to Wall Street, and very little to the common man and woman trying to pay their bills… It’s a shame, but it’s true, it’s tru, I did see a putty tat! So, how can the so-called experts think that the U.S. economy was going to keep moving in the direction it saw for most of the last 12-months, as truck loads of Gov’t spending boosted the GDP data…

Any-old-way… The Russian Central Bank isn’t falling for the Jedi Mind tricks of the Cartel, and they don’t believe that inflation is “transitory”…  In fact… Let’s listen in to what the Russian Central Bank had to say about inflation… “Russia’s central bank says a new financial crisis on the scale of the 2008 collapse could happen in less than 18 months if global inflation is not kept in check.

A surge in public and private sector debt levels during the recovery from the pandemic could cause the global economy to “deteriorate drastically and rapidly” if the US Federal Reserve has to jack up interest rates to quell inflation, the Bank of Russia warned in its annual monetary policy forecast.”

Chuck again… The price of Oil continues to push the price envelope toward $70… I know that when I filled up my gas tank last week in S.W. Missouri, the price of gas was very high!  I was like, “Man, and I WAS thinking about getting a new gas guzzler just to tick off all the naysayers, but I guess I won’t now!” I’ve driven an SUV of some kind for 20 years, and I don’t think I could or would even think about going to a small car to drive…   So, call me names, call me whatever, I love my BIG CAR! 

Even the price of Oil got pushed downward overnight, and it lost its $69 handle… 

OK… Well the 10-year Treasury’s yield bounced higher after the jobs report on Friday… On Thursday, when I left you, the 10-year’s yield was 1.29%, and last night when I looked at it the yield has risen to 1.34%… And this morning it has risen more to 1.36% I guess the bond boys didn’t like the idea of no tapering that could result from the bad employment reports…  So, if the Cartel isn’t going to be buying the bulk of the Treasury auctions, who then will be left to buy them up? And brother do we have some deficit spending coming down the pike that’s going to need to be financed!

You see, the major buyers of Treasuries in the past couple of years, had been the Cartel, China, and Japan… We already know that Russia bowed out of owning any Treasuries, and China and Japan’s appetite for Treasuries has waned… Who will be the next major player to buy up our auctioned Treasuries? I don’t see any country stepping up to the plate to take a swing… 

That means the Cartel will have to continue to buy bonds… You know I was reading a bit about the Cartel’s Balance sheet yesterday, and the writer was pointing out that in the Fed’s balance sheet has gone from $800 Billion to $8 Trillion… And the GDP of the nation is not as prosperous as it was 40-50 years ago, when the Cartel wasn’t trying to monopolize the bond market…  I wish Cartel Chairman, Jerome Powell, would read articles like this one that I read, and maybe he’d get a different idea in his hard head that he should leave the economy, stock market, and bond market alone to trade on its own merits…

I’m very tired this morning… I haven’t been sleeping well, and my breathing has hit a snag, as it is not getting better… It has improved greatly, don’t get me wrong on that, but it has failed to keep getting better… So, I had better button this up and get it out the door, before I give up the ship and go back to sleep!

The data this week will be difficult to find… The stupid CPI (consumer inflation) will print today, and quite frankly this data has been through the wringer so much that it doesn’t reflect the true inflation that we are experiencing… The Chapwood Index that I showed you all about a year ago, shows that Inflation is really about 13%… shows that inflation is really about 13.4%, which means, that our REAL interest rates on a 10-year Treasury are negative 10%!!!!! No wonder no one is lining up to buy our Treasuries!

To recap…  The jobs jamboree last Friday was very disappointing to those not realizing that the GDP growth in this country has been fueled by Gov’t Spending, and they were surprised to see the jobs number come in at just 247,000 VS the 720,000 expected… The dollar immediately got sold with the currencies rallying, and Gold rising $18 and Silver rising 78-cents after the data printed on Friday… Yesterday, the markets here were closed, and so the global trading was lacking volume, but the dollar won back some of the lost ground from Friday, for what reason I have no idea… And in the overnight markets the dollar rallied, for some unknown reason… 

For What It’s Worth….  I saw this yesterday on Twitter, and went to the source, and found this article on world food prices soaring… So much for the Cartel’s “Transitory” B.S.  This article can be found here: World Food Prices Jump In August To Near Decade High | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Central banks and mainstream media continue to peddle the notion that soaring food inflation is temporary and the average Joe and Jane should not worry about it. But in a new report via the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global food prices are on the rise, once again, and back to near-decade highs.

FAO released a statement Thursday that detailed after two consecutive months of declines, world food prices in August jumped due to solid gains in sugar, vegetable oils, and cereals.

FAO’s food price index, which follows international prices of globally traded food commodities, averaged 127.4 points in August, up 3.9 points (3.1%) from July and 31.5 points (32.9%) from the same period last year.

In August, the most significant driver of food prices was FAO Sugar Price Index, which jumped 9.6% from July due to frost damage to crops in Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter. Readers may recall in “Frost Bites Brazilian Sugar Crop As Prices Zoom Higher,” we noted multiple weather disasters in Brazil severely damaged the sugar crop.

The second-largest jump in the basket was the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index, which rose 6.7% last month, as international palm oil prices soared to historic highs because of below-potential production.

The FAO Cereal Price Index increased 3.4% higher in August versus July. The meat index edged up slightly in August, and the dairy index sunk.

A combination of global droughts, volatile weather, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions persisting from COVID, among others, have contributed to the rapid rise in food prices over the last year.

Heading into fall, soaring food inflation shows no signs of abating and may worsen. This may cause socio-economic turmoil in emerging market economies, mainly because people in those countries allocate more of their daily budgets to food.”

Chuck again… I know a little long in the tooth for the snippet today, but I wanted to make sure you got the message of higher food prices coming to a grocery store near you!  Yes, Global food prices are soaring higher and higher, and our Central Bank keeps trying those Jedi Mind Tricks on consumers and the markets… At some time in the future, the Cartel will have to admit they were wrong about inflation, and when they do watch out, because with that mea culpa will most likely bring about an increase in interest rates… And according the Russian Central Bank, that’s when the rubber hits the road… 

Market prices 9/7/2021: American Style: A$ .7394,  kiwi .7118, C$ .7945, euro 1.1861, sterling 1.3775, Swiss $1.0929, European Style: rand 14.3211, krone 8.6761, SEK 8.5563,  forint 293.91,  zloty 3.8109,  koruna 21.4156, RUB 72.92, yen 110.04, sing 1.3452, HKD 7.7738, INR 73.37, China 6.4535, pesos 19.94, BRL 5.1820, BBDXY 1,143.47, Dollar Index 92.36,  Oil $68.53, 10-year 1.36%, Silver $24.37, Platinum $1,014.00, Palladium $2,484.00, Copper $4.20, and Gold… $1,811.50

That’s it for today… Well, with the Cardinals probably missing the playoffs this year (as called by me, there are 26 games left for them to figure it out) at least the Management / Front office can’t say it was a successful season, and maybe they’ll do something in the offseason to improve the team… Right now the only pitcher in the rotation that we can depend on, is 40 years old, and a couple of years ago was ready to retire! So, did you have a nice holiday weekend? I sure hope you did, for it’s the last one of the summer, and we won’t have another 3 day weekend for a while… Can you believe we’re already into the 2nd Week of September? My mom used to say, Time sure flies when you’re having fun… I don’t think the last month has been much fun for me, but… the time sure has flown by!  The Gin Blossoms take us to the finish line today with their song: Found Out About You… the Gin Blossoms are one of those 90’s bands that had a great 1st album, and not so great 2nd Album, and then faded away… OK, with that I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler




Moving on . . .

Long ago, and oh so far away, I fell in love with you, before I wrote the second Pfennig… You dear reader, you have kept me going through good times and bad, sickness and health, and all my whining. I couldn’t have done it without you… The last 10 years have been difficult for me, as you know, and I never held back any of the details.

I bet you’re wondering what this is all about and what is Chuck getting at this morning… Well, I’ve never been one to beat around the bush, so I’ll just come right out and tell you that now the TIAA/ EverBank transaction has been completed I’ll be retiring from EverBank (but wait, not the Pfennig – you aren’t rid of me yet).

It has been an eventful 17 years. Building a first-class World Markets business, traveling relentlessly, speaking, and doing all the other ancillary things that go with it. And making sure the Pfennig went out every day even when I was suffering with the effects of radiation and chemotherapy. There’s a lot to do in an entrepreneurial business and it was great to be a major player.

Chuck Says, “I Told You So!”

Good day… And a Happy Friday to one and all! I’m having a tough time focusing this morning, and my infusion confusion hangs on, and this morning, it’s making it tough for me to see clearly. I need some Johnny Nash right now… I can see clearly now the rain is gone… But, hey! I’m not going to let seeing double or blurry words on a screen stop me! It was crazy at the doctor’s office yesterday and the infusion center… What should take no more than 2 hours tops, took 4 hours… UGH! The Late Great, Dan Fogelberg greets me this morning with his song: As The Raven Flies… I used to play that song on my guitar… But wouldn’t remember the first chord now… UGH!

It’s All About The Triple-Witching Thursday, Tomorrow!

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The 13-run pools around the country were all broken and paid out with the 13-runs the Reds put on my beloved Cardinals last night… It got so ugly I turned it off to watch re-runs of The Big Bang Theory! I slept pretty good last night, but can’t seem to get the motor started this morning! UGH! It will eventually start and then everyone needs to watch out! HA! Pink Floyd greets me this morning with their song: The Fletcher Memorial Home… I bet there’s not a lot of people that have that one on their iPods!