March 13, 2019
* Currencies, for the most part see some small gains on Tuesday
* Gold closes above $1,300, is this the long awaited breakout to the upside?
Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I finally recovered from my battle with the sun on Monday, yesterday, and actually sat on the beach, under an umbrella with my sun hat on for a couple of hours, with no problems… I still think it was a freak thing, and I’m not going to worry about it… And I was wrong yesterday when I said my next game was a night game, when my next game is tomorrow, a day game… We’ll see how everything works then! I drank plenty of water yesterday (there’s water in beer right? HA!) and I was fine by midday… The Allman Brothers greet me this morning with their song: Southbound…
Well, it was another day without a lot going on in the currencies, the euro gained a small amount again, but Pound sterling got sold off its highs that occurred when traders thought that PM May’s BREXIT deal was going to be a layup… But that didn’t happen, as the British Parliament voted no to May’s plan… So, it’s back to the drawing board once again for the BREXIT negotiators… What a sticky divorce proceeding, eh?
The Aussie dollar (A$) saw some profit taking, while the Canadian dollar / loonie saw some love, along with the Russian ruble and Norwegian krone, for the bump up in the price of Oil… And the fact that the news from Saudi Arabia tells us that the Saudis are holding true to the production cuts they imposed last month to Oil production. So far so good for the Oil producers, but like I’ve explained before, it’s a vicious cycle here, because once the price of Oil rises, it brings the shale producers back on board, and then they flood the market with supply and the brings the price of Oil back down… Rinse, Repeat…
Gold was allowed to breach the $1,300 figure yesterday, with an over $8 gain on the day… But as we’ve seen before, the price manipulators won’t let it get too high before they begin to sell it short on paper again… I’m still of the opinion that Gold will break out on the upside in price… The shiny metal had a good run going there at year-end, and it looked as if that was going to be the break out… As we all learned, it obviously wasn’t… just a tease, if you will…
Well, have you heard the news? There’s good rockin’ at midnight! No Wait! That’s not what I was going to say! I was going to talk about the news that ECB President, Mario Draghi, might retire without ever hiking interest rates! Just like his hero, Big Ben Bernanke! Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, and main go-to for policy here, are probably saying, “That’s the last time we promote someone from the Bank of Italy to be the President of the ECB” I don’t know who’s “in line” but whomever it is, they have to be able to do a better job than Draghi has, with his constant throwing the euro under a bus, and other crimes!
On the data front, The Eurozone printed their January and YoY Industrial Production reports today… the January print was up 1.4%, but it failed to bring the year on year (YOY) data into positive territory, and the YOY figure was down 1.1%… I would point out that the rot on this vine was due to a mid-year slump, and that the recent trend has been positive… Something for the European Central Bank (ECB) to think about…
Well, we’ll see some stale data today here in the U.S. as the January Durable Goods and Capital Goods Orders will print… I’m thinking that we’ll be adding a couple of new bricks to the wall after they print, as they could both be in negative territory… All in all, it’s just another brick in the wall…
I really stirred up a hornet’s nest on Monday when I went crazy on the kids and what they were being taught in school these days… I guess it’s more the Universities fault, but so be it… How about all those people that formerly lived in NY, New Jersey, and California, moving out of their home states to more tax friendly states like Texas and Florida? The problem with that is that most people can’t make a move like that, due to kids, work, schools, family, money, etc. But imagine, if you will, that everyone was able to move… would the last person leaving the state of New Jersey, please turn out the lights? HA!
To recap… The currencies, led by the euro were able to move a little higher on Tuesday, but pound sterling got sold off its highs, after the British Parliament voted No to the BREXIT deal… Back to the drawing board… Gold gained $8.50 on the day, and closed above $1,300, once again… And the U.S. Data Cupboard will have the Durables and Capital Goods Orders for us today, of which Chuck thinks they both will be negative…
For What It’s Worth… Have you ever heard of Jeremy Grantham? He’s supposedly the guy that called the 2008 financial meltdown, I’m not saying he didn’t do that, but I’m pretty darn sure I called it before he did, when in 2003, I began talking about the Housing Bubble, and what it would do the economy and the dollar. But anyway, he’s very well respected, and he was talking about the next 20 years for the U.S. stock market, and it can be found here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investor-credited-with-calling-the-2008-crisis-says-the-next-20-years-in-the-stock-market-will-break-a-lot-of-hearts-2019-03-07?mod=MW_section_top_stories
Or, here’s your snippet: “Jeremy Grantham, an investor credited with predicting the 2000 and 2008 downturns, told CNBC on Thursday that investors should get inured to lackluster returns in the stock market for the next two decades, after a century of handsome gains.
“In the last 100 years, we’re used to delivering perhaps 6%,” but the U.S. market will be delivering real returns of about 2% or 3% on average over next 20 years, the value investor and co-founder of Boston-based asset manager GMO told CNBC in a rare interview.
Grantham, who has been predicting a meltdown in stocks since last year, said that not even the recent go-slow reversal by the Federal Reserve on rate increases and the European Central Bank’s decision to roll out a fresh batch of bank stimulus will push stocks significantly higher. “You can’t get blood out of a stone,” he told the network.
The famed investor said that he expects stocks to limp along against that backdrop, with major developed banks unlikely to remove stimulus first introduced during the 2007-09 financial crisis.”
Chuck Again… Well, it sounds like he’s on board with my long standing call that we’re turning Japanese, yes, I really think so! It’s been more than 20 years of funk for the Japanese stock market, folks… I’m just saying…
Currencies today 3/13/19 American Style: A$.7060, kiwi .6840, C$ .7483, euro 1.1305, sterling 1.3133, Swiss $.9946, European Style: rand 14.3484, krone 8.6115, SEK 9.3370, forint 278.38, zloty 3.8041, koruna 22.7183, RUB 65.71, yen 111.30, sing 1.3560, HKD 7.8498, INR 69.38, China 6.7090, peso 19.32, BRL 3.8244, Dollar Index 96.87, Oil $57.42, 10-year 2.62%, Silver $15.53, Platinum 839.05, Palladium $1,547.89, and Gold… $1,308.85
That’s it for today… March seems to be slipping by way too fast for my liking! If the days keep going by so fast, It’ll be April before I know it, and then it will be time to start packing up for my trip back to Missouri! I have doctor appts. and scans all scheduled the 3rd week of April. At this point, this is the longest I’ve gone without a blood draw, a scan, or a visit to an oncologist in 12 years! I’m thinking that my veins have all healed, my stomach isn’t upset from the barium and I don’t like going and stepping on a scale at a doctor’s office! So, I’m good with this, as long as the wolf remains outside the door! And with that King Crimson takes us to the finish line today with their iconic rock song: The Court of the Crimson King… I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and continue to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler