Category: Uncategorized

• Currencies & metals rally in the overnight markets
• So, you’re telling me that there were states that didn’t grow in the 3rd QTR?

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, Kathy & Chuck went to dinner last night with good friends, Diane and Gary.. We talked about many different things and by the time we left, the restaurant was dimming the lights! We went to an Italian restaurant, that I thought when hearing of our destination, that “eating soft pasta would be great for my mouth”… And so it was!  Yummy, if you’re keeping score at home!  The great pianist, Beggie Adams greets me this morning with her version of hte song: Frosty The Snowman… 

Well, the frost that formed over Gold on Tuesday this week, looks as though it has finally gone into melting stage… Silver still has some frost hanging around, but I sense that the short paper traders have taken their pound of flesh from Silver, and it’s now time for Silver to gather up the broken pieces and put them back together again…  Yesterday, Gold gained $6.30, to close at $2,026.10, and Silver lost 27-cents to fall below the $24 handle, at $23.97… I think the short paper traders got what they were looking for on Tuesday, and I’m happy for them, (NOT!) and hope they now decide to take their ball and bat and go home… 

The dollar is still being supported from the PPT’s intervention on Tuesday, and the dollar gained 2 index points yesterday to end the day at 1,244….  So, all the difficult work that the currencies had put in VS the dollar was wiped out by the intervention… I get it, the powers that be, can’t have the dollar getting sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair, but… Do they have to do it so violently?  I’m just asking… 

The price of Oil continues to drop, and yesterday it lost $2 to end the day trading with a $69 handle… And the bond frenzy continues, with the 10-year’s yield falling to 4.12% yesterday… This is reaching an overbought area, in my opinion… And just like everything in life, something swings way our of control on one side, and int he correction, it swings way out of control on the other side… Never stopping in the middle …  

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar buying stopped… What’s up? I thought… The BBDXY is down 3 index points this morning… Apparently the ADP Employment Report spooked the dollar bugs, a only 103,000 jobs were added in November. Gold is up $9 to start the day today, still picking up the pieces of its broken price from Tuesday, and Silver is flat to up 2-cents to start the day today… The selling of Oil appears to have stopped as witnessed by the uptick in the price to a $70 handle this morning…  And the bond frenzy is taking a pause for the cause and starts the day with a 4.17% yield… 

While writing down the currency prices today, I came across the Japanese yen, and noticed that it had booked a nice profit in the last 24 hours, and immediately went looking for a reason the yen with all its problems was on the rally tracks… Well, remember a week or so ago, when I told you about what the Bank Of Japan (BOJ) Gov, had said about “when we return rates to normal”, and how he didn’t say “if we return rates to normal”, and suggested that, while it’s still somewhat unimaginable, that the BOJ might be hiking rates to get out of the negative rates policy… Well… here’s the skinny from Bloomberg.com : ” Traders are rapidly increasing bets that the Bank of Japan will scrap the world’s last negative interest-rate regime as soon as this month after the central bank’s leaders indicated they could be preparing a shift in policy.

The selloff, initially fueled by comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and one of his deputies, jolted financial markets in Tokyo and beyond, shattering a period of relative calm for Japan’s bonds.”

For those of you who missed class that day, or were fiddling with your smart phone,  I told you how this change in their interest rate policy could open a brand-new can of worms for the dollar… You see for decades now, all the Big Box buyers of bonds, have ignored and steered clear of the Japanese bonds… But if Japan would see their bond yields rise, it could signal buying from the Big Box buyers, and that could take away from dollar investments… See how I looped back and brought this all together for your reading enjoyment? HA!  

But seriously, this COULD be a real chink in the dollar’s armor… UH-OH… 

Well, in my reading and research yesterday, I came up with an article on the freemarketsinside.com site… In the article they talked about how China is reaching out to Africa to further their desire to spread their de-dollarization  call”… And China is using every trick in the book to achieve their goal… For instance, last year, China’s only bank in Africa made HUGE loans to Africa, using that as good neighbors, and gaining the trust of the people in Africa, so that when they want them to ditch their use of dollars and use their renminbi instead, they are coming from a position of trust of the people… 

And in one of my fave countries… Australia… it seems that their consumers are running out of their savings, and still wanting to spend… Why would Australians be any different from U.S. consumers?  This doesn’t lend itself to bring you to want to own A$’s, going forward…  I’m just saying… I know, I said something in a previous Pfennig that there were some observers that thought the A$ was on its way to 70-cents… But, all that is predicated on the U.S. dollar’s performance, which right now isn’t doing the A$ any favors… 

On Bloomberg.com, I found that, no wait, I’ll let Bloomberg tell  you: Six US States Saw Their Economies Shrink in the Second Quarter

Economic output shrank in six US states in the second quarter of 2023, with the biggest contraction coming in the state with the smallest economy — Vermont — according to data published Tuesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Most of the states with shrinking economies are along a north-south belt stretching from Wisconsin to Mississippi.

Chuck again… of course the big box states like Texas grew at 5% pace, which skewers the national numbers… Of course, we didn’t hear about this when the GDP number was announced last week… No, it was all about how great the U.S. economy was…  But you and I know differently, don’t we? We’ve observed that the ISM manufacturing contracted further, Durable Goods Orders, and Factory Orders were both negative, and tomorrow we’ll probably see the U.S. labor market suffer a slowdown… I say “probably” but no one ever knows just what the BLS has up their sleeves… Yesterday, we saw that the ADP Employment Report showed that only 103,000 jobs were added in November, and furthermore, the 3^rd QTR Productivity, showed a gain to 5.2%…  As if that’s something to get you excited about, as all it shows you is that the folks that are working, are working longer and harder… 

But not to worry, because all those Job Openings are falling like flies, so there’s help on the way… Well, that is as long as you believe the BLS’s numbers here…. I don’t, that’s for certain! 

There’s something to all this Gold buying since the big selloff on Tuesday this week… Could it be the short paper traders, after driving the price down, are now buying Gold for the next buildup? Remember how I explained this Ponzi scheme to you previously?  Well, it could certainly be just that… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, doesn’t have much for us, as the markets prepare for tomorrow’s Jobs Jamboree, and right now the so-called expert forecasters say that contrary to what the ADP report showed, that the U.S. had created 190,000 jobs in November…  And this is where I say hogwash! ADP is the check system that all companies use for their payrolls… So, if they had 103,000 new entries in November, that is the jobs created, period!  

To recap…  The dollar buying continued yesterday, but Gold & Silver found ways to gain on the day. The dollar buying ended last night, as traders all attempt to pick of the pieces of the broken prices of currencies, metals, bonds and everything else… Japan might be prepping the markets for an end of their negative interest rate policy… Not all states were growing last quarter, as the GDP report would have indicated… And Chuck goes through the reports that have been negative to argue with the propeller heads that calculated GPD… 

For What It’s Worth…  I talked about bank branches closing the other day, and so I thought I would back that up with more info on branch closings, and that is what this article is about, and can be found here:We Are Witnessing an Avalanche of Branch Closings as U.S. Banks Desperately Try To Stay Alive – LewRockwell

Or, here’s your snippet: “If you do things the right way, in the long run you will get positive results.  But if you do things the wrong way, in the long run you will get negative results.  Our banks are the beating heart of our entire economy, and unfortunately, they have been doing things the wrong way for a long time.  As a result, the entire system is being greatly shaken.  Loans are starting to go delinquent at a frightening pace, we have seen endless “banking glitches” in recent months, tens of thousands of banking employees have already been laid off, and U.S. banks are sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars of unrealized losses.  Sadly, a lot more chaos is on the way.  As small and mid-size banks fail, they will get gobbled up by the big boys.  Of course, the big boys are scrambling to survive too.  In fact, it is being reported that JPMorgan Chase will close a total of 159 local branches by the end of this calendar year…

In 2023, JP Morgan Chase has or will close 159 branch locations across the United States. The banking giant is not alone in its decision to scale back its physical presence as banking moves online; Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citi Bank have announced closures at similar scales that will continue into 2024.

Bank of America is not far behind.

We are being told that it will permanently close more than 100 local branches by the end of 2023…

Bank of America is the second largest bank in the United States, and this year, the financial giant has announced that it will close up to 138 locations. To date, 95 branches have been closed this year, and 15 more are to shutter by the end of the year. The remaining locations are planned to close in 2024, meaning that the trend, common among nearly all of the big banks of shutting local branches will continue.

At this point, just about everyone is closing branches.

In addition to laying off workers, this is one of the measures that banks can take to try to save some money.

As I discussed the other day, in just one week in November U.S. banks submitted filings to permanently close another 64 branches.

Of course this “avalanche” of branch closings didn’t just start recently.  In 2022, our banks shut down more than 3,000 branches.  We have never seen anything like this before, and everyone agrees that more branch closures are coming in 2024.

But many banks have no choice.  Right now, U.S. banks are sitting on an absolutely colossal mountain of unrealized losses.”

Chuck again…  like I said, banks don’t need branches when they have digital currencies… 

Market Prices 12/7/2023: American Style: A$ .6562, kiwi .6133, C$ .7348, euro 1.0777, sterling 1.2581, Swiss $1.1406, European Style: rand 18.7636, krone 10.9081, SEK 10.4478, forint 353.89, zloty 4.0188, koruna 22.6050, RUB 92.91, yen 145.11, sing 1.3408, HKD 7.8097, INR 83.32, China 7.1551, peso 17.33, BRL 4.8858, BBDXY 1,241.38, Dollar Index 103.89, Oil $70.18, 10-year 4.17%, Silver $23.99, Platinum $908.00, Palladium $996.00, Copper $3.74, and Gold… $2,035.00

That’s it for today and this week… I apologize for the tardiness of the letter this morning… I just couldn’t answer the bell this morning… And that’s not like me… I’ve always answered the bell no matter what trial and tribulation I had gone through during the night… I guess there’s a first time for anything!  I have a jam-packed week, next week, and I’m looking forward to it! I’m confused with our Blues… They win on Las Vegas ice, but lose on home ice…  A very strange team so far this season… The St. Louis U Billikens lost their game VS Drake last night too… I’m glad I was busy away from home, so I didn’t have to watch these losses!  On Saturday this week, my beloved Mizzou Tigers will play their old rival, Kansas… in the words of Gus Kyle, that should be a real barnburner!  I anxiously await the start of that game on Saturday… David Ian Trio takes us to the finish line today with their version of the song: I’ll Be Home For Christmas… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow! And don’t forget to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals get manipulated downward on Monday…
• Bill Bonner joins us this morning…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it wasn’t a Marvelous Monday for Gold yesterday… See? I told you the gain had been tenuous… Talk about a lot of cry babies! The sports channels, and even CNN chipped in, are featuring the cry babies that didn’t get picked by the College Football Playoff Committee.. I had to turn it off, and see what I could watch on Prime Video!  Welcome to the club that my beloved Mizzou Tigers have belonged to for decades, and that is the club of disappointment… Hello, we’re glad to have teams join us in the club!  

Well, as I said above, Gold got whacked yesterday, and Silver also got taken to the woodshed, after both of them enjoying some very nice gains last Friday, those gains were wiped out yesterday, with Gold losing $41.90, and Silver losing 98-cents, and the $25 handle! I don’t have to tell you longtime readers who did the selling yesterday… Yes, of course there had to be some profit taking, but those are short timers anyway, and they chipped right in on the short Gold Paper trades… Gold closed the day at $2,030.10, and Silver at $24.55… It was a day to remember, in December, for sure!

The dollar also saw a bounce after getting sold on Friday last week, it turned the tables yesterday and gained 5 index points in the BBDXY…  I don’t have to tell you longtime readers who came to the rescue of the dollar either… It’s the same-o, same-o, when it comes to saving the dollar, and I shake my head in disgust… Not that I long for a dollar collapse, mind you, I just want the markets to decide without intervention, on the fair value of assets… And Currencies, metals, Oil, bonds, and even stocks get manipulated to some degree, some more than others, but interfered with all the same… 

The price of Oil remained in the lower range yesterday, and held to its $73 handle all day… And the headline on Bloomberg.com last night went like this: “Bonds rally after briefly reacting to Powell’s hawkish words”…   

So, all will be right with the U.S. again soon, with stocks soaring, Bonds soaring, and Bitcoin soaring… and the dollar not in trouble any longer… Right? I mean that’s what the price manipulators want to believe, that all’s well in the U.S., and you can tell that by watching the asset prices soar…  TSK, TSK, TSK…. I have to be the only one that sees this is all a sham…   Because I’m the only one talking about it being all a sham! 

Good Heavens on Earth… The price manipulators can’t have Gold reaching new all-time highs, because that draws a different picture on the U.S. … That inflation hasn’t gone away, that the debt is too high, and the debt servicing costs will soon have to be a part of our borrowings…  OK, I’m off my soapbox for now… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got bought some more, and the currencies are all looking like they are coming down with a cold… The only currency that gained VS the dollar yesterday was the Chinese renminbi… The BBDXY is up 1.85 index points this morning, and Gold is down $3 in the early trading today. Silver is down too, this time by 21-cents… So, now we sit here and wait to see if the price manipulators are finished with their assault on Gold & Silver, or is there more in their tank? 

The price of oil remained trading with a $73 handle overnight… And the 10-year is on one of the strangest, and wildest rides ever, and trades with a 4.22% yield this morning… Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride at Disneyworld, had nothing on the ride the 10-year has been on since the beginning of Rocktober… And if you’re wondering, the U.S. yield curve is still inverted, and you can still get 5% yield in a 1-year T-Bill…  This inverted yield curve is just not right… And it’s telling us that there is something down the road that isn’t going to be good…  So, put that in your notes, and come back to it when all of this goes to hell in a hand basket, and say, “Hey! Chuck told us that the inverted yield curve was an omen, and he was right!   

I just can’t get over the way Gold & Silver were attacked yesterday… Now, I’ve witnessed some take downs previously, but none were of the ilk of this one… There was some pent up frustration in their trading… In times like this I turn to Ed Steer to see what he said about this takedown… So, let’s hear from Ed… “In one of the most horrific, coordinated and collusive attacks in memory, the short sellers of last resort/the commercial traders of whatever stripe, stepped into gold and silver’s moon-shot rallies about fifteen minutes after they began around 8:15 p.m. in GLOBEX trading on Sunday evening in New York when the market was the most illiquid and thinly-traded.

And you can forget about any other influences, the dollar index, the stock market or anything else, as this was strictly a wall-to-wall paper affair in the GLOBEX/COMEX futures market.

There was nothing at all subtle about it…like a brick through a plate-glass window. They weren’t even trying to hide what they were doing. At their spot high ticks, gold was up $75 — and silver by 46.5 cents.” – Ed Steer… 

Of course you can read all of Ed thoughts at www.edsteergoldsilver.com  P.S. you have to subscribe to his letter but then most of you already do! 

This summer I’m going to Ireland, and will spend a couple of days in Oslo, Norway… I’m so excited about this trip, and will check out Norway, the country that I talked about so glowingly last week… This is a bucket list trip to Ireland, to visit the Butler House Hotel, and all of the pubs! HA!  Hopefully all the bad stuff going on in Dublin right now is a thing of the past, because I don’t want to get mixed up in riots!  

Yeah, from what I read; the Irish people have had enough immigrates…  What would it take to get the U.S. people fired up about immigrates? We, as a country of law-abiding people,  continue to accept  all that’s being thrown at us, until… we won’t accept it any longer…  I’m just saying… 

It’s the same with Gold & Silver manipulation… What will it take to get our lawmakers or regulators to deal with these brazen attacks on the assets?  Think about that for a minute…

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the Rocktober Factory Orders, and once again this data print illustrated what I keep saying that the economy is NOT strong… Factory Order were negative -3.65%… Combine that with the Durable Good Orders that were negative last week, and an ISM that show further contraction in manufacturing, and you’ve got one pile of bad news for the economy… I’m just saying… 

There’s really nothing in the Data Cupboard today, other than the Job Openings data… And when was the last time the markets even noticed this data print? So, we’ll move on from here… 

To recap… in what was the most brazen of take downs, the price manipulators piled in and on and took Gold & Silver down to levels they were before their recent rallies… These guys were not taking any prisoners here, folks, they meant business, and now Chuck wonders if they are finished… The dollar got manipulated higher too, On Friday, last week the BBDXY closed the week at 1,234, and after yesterday’s price rigging the BBDXY was 1,241… On Friday, the euro was nearing 1.10… and today it’s barely hanging on to 1.08…  So, it was price manipulators Day in the markets, and those dirty dogs didn’t even care if you knew what they were up to!   The Chinese renminbi was the only currency to gain VS the dollar yesterday, and that alone tells you what you need to know about the dollar and the currencies… 

For What It’s Worth…  When I read this on Friday last week, I thought that it might be FWIW worthy, and the more I thought about it,  and then saw it in Ed Steer’s Saturday letter, I knew then it was FWIW worthy, and so here it is.. This is Bill Bonner at his best, I’ll say no more about it, other than it can be found here: The King’s Head – by Bill Bonner – Bonner Private Research

Or, here’s your snippet: “Pity the “People’… the non-deciders…the middle class… hoi polloi…the majority…the voters! They are like hungry mice waiting for crumbs to fall from the table.

But ours is not a whine about ‘inequality.’ We take it for granted that all people are not created equal. Some are leaders. Most are followers. Some are thinkers; most leave the thinking to others. Inequality is inevitable…undeniable…part of the ‘way we are;’ we sort ourselves into teams, tribes, classes, castes, sects, clubs, nations and races.  

Some become members of the ‘upper’ class of deciders and influencers. Others, mostly do what they are told.

The elites – whether by conquest or ballot box – set themselves up as government…and use their power to rip everyone else off. We are exaggerating, of course. There’s always more to the story. And the ‘more’ here is that the elites are also very useful. They’re responsible for the administration of justice…for much of our science…some of our learning and great breakthroughs of capitalism…for making the trains run on time…keeping the airplanes from falling from the sky…and for much of the output that makes our modern lives more agreeable.

A Government of Laws

But over time, the deciders get more and more power. Power leads to corruption.   That’s why the American Constitution was not meant to give them power, but to keep them in check. It expressly limits the power of government to certain things. Of the rest, it says: “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States or to the people, respectively.” The idea was to prevent Washington from getting too big for its britches.  

This is also why Jefferson remarked that we may need a revolution every 10 years or so. “God forbid we should ever be 20 years without such a rebellion,” he said.”

Chuck again… You know what John F. Kennedy said to a group of finance ministers and economists? “the last time there was this much intelligence in this room, Thomas Jefferson, sat alone.”… 

Market Prices 12/5/2023: American Style: A$.6560, kiwi .6138, C$ .7361, euro 1.0815, sterling 1.2619, Swiss $1.1444, European Style: rand 18.9116, krone 10.8835, SEK 10.4522, forint 350.71, zloty 4.002, koruna 22.4387, RUB 92.20, yen 147.67, sing 1.3394, HKD 7.8179, INR 83.38, China 7.1431, peso 17.48, BRL 4.9475, BBDXY 1,241.86, Dollar Index 103.80, Oil $73.00, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $24.34, Platinum $908.00, Palladium $970.00, Copper $3.74, and Gold… $2,027.34

That’s it for today… I saw two major move days in Gold Back-to-back, and in the end, Gold was right back to where it was before the selloff… A lot of people got hurt in those two days of trading, that’s for sure!  Well, we’re down to having the vanity sinks and faucets hooked up, and then maybe I’ll be able to park by car in the garage again! Slowly, but surely all the carpentry stuff has been removed from the garage… They sure took their good, sweet time getting all that done… I’m just saying…   Kathy had the drywall and painting folks back to redo some spots, that she wasn’t fond of, and that delayed their finish even longer!  But it had to be done… We paid a lot of money for this to all look like brand new again, again, I’m just saying… Jack Jezzro takes us to the finish line today with his “Bossa Nova style” version of the song: I Saw Mommy Kissin’ Santa Claus…. I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals rally on Friday last week…
• Why don’t the markets listen to poor Jay Powell?

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday… And welcome to December! One of my fave months of the year! The only thing that I don’t like about December is the Cold weather! But at least houses get dressed up inside and out, and there’s just something about the “air” of December, it’s filled with anticipation… I love that! Saturday night, we had our subdivision’s Progressive Dinner Party, which is always a good time. We all must be getting old in our subdivision, as we were home by 10:30 PM. We used to party till the cows came home, but no more… Man, I don’t like getting Old, but I guess it beats the alternative!  It’s now Bowl Season… Our Blues just keep digging a deeper hole for themselves… UGH!  The Stephen Kummer Trio greets me this morning with their version of the song: Have Yourself A Merry Christmas… 

Well… Gold hit a new all-time high on Friday, after gaining $35.30 on the day, it ended the day at $2,072,60, surpassing the previous high of $2,070.00… $2,050.00 had represented a line of resistance, but that proved to be a lax as Saddam Hussein’s line in the sand, and it was taken out, and flown through… And all the while, Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Powell, was talking hawkish… Let’s listen to some of his words: “It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so,” Powell added.”

Chuck again… I’m only going to say this one more time…. Why won’t the markets listen to Mr. Powell? They have it in their minds that interest rates will be cut soon, and swiftly… They refuse to listen to him (Powell), and make a mockery of his words… Now, maybe they are on to something, that his words are nothing but a ruse… But, I just don’t see someone like Powell, saying something that he would be ridiculed about later, if he truly believed what he was saying. 

So, Gold gained $35.30 on Friday, and set a new all-time high price… Silver was tamer in its rally, and gained 16-cents, to end the week at $25.53… The dollar got sold, after a strong rally on Thursday, the dollar reversed those gains on Friday, and ended the week with the BBDXY at $1,234… So, stock jockeys, bond traders, currency traders, commodity traders, all don’t believe Powell… Now, don’t get me wrong here, I’m not complaining about this non-belief, for it’s fueling this strong run in metals… But that has me worried that it’s all too tenuous… and the gains could be wiped out in a New York Minute… (Don Henley) by the shot paper traders… UGH! 

Well, as I suspected, our friends (NOT!) at Opec announced their output reduction on Thursday, and the price of Oil responded accordingly… Gaining $3 on Thursday, only to see it get reversed on Friday! What? Yes, the folks that make these decisions about the price of Oil, didn’t see the output reduction as significant enough, to offset the lack of demand for Oil these days… And Oil ended the week trading with a $74 handle… 

In the overnight markets last night… Well, I read this morning that Gold soared right out of the starter’s blocks last night, trading all the way up to $2,148.00, but that was met with an array of 1. profit taking, and 2. short selling, and Gold this morning in trading at $2.067… So, $4 off its Friday close, but a whole lot off its overnight night high… The dollar got bought in the overnight markets last night, as witnessed by the BBDXY gaining 1.56 index points… The euro has dropped back below 1.09, which is disheartening, as I really thought that after last weeks gains, the euro would be trading with a 1.10 handle this morning… So much for the plans of mice and men, eh? 

Silver too, is down this morning, but only 21-cents, so that can be reversed with no effort… C’Mon Silver get with the program! The price of Oil has really fallen since the initial run up in price after the output production cuts announcement. I guess lack of demand is what’s pushing the lever for Oil… And Oil trades with a $73 handle this morning…  And the Bond boys might be hearing what Powell is saying, but they’re not listening… The 10-year trades with a 4.24% yield this morning… That’s a long way from 5.00% it traded in Rocktober… 

I did a lot of reading this past weekend, and one of the articles I came across, delighted the hell out of me, as the guy (Michael Hudson) took Paul Krugman to the cleaners! It’s a very long article, so I’ll give you the link to it in case you have the time to read it… here it is: NY Times is wrong on dedollarization: Economist Michael Hudson debunks Paul Krugman’s dollar defense – Geopolitical Economy Report

Ok… Well, it seems we are once again at this fork in the road with Gold… one road sees danger of short selling, and yet another pullback in the metal… The other road sees nothing but green lights ahead… Which one will Gold take this time? 

There are still 70 days of Gold production that is represented in short trades, so there’s that… You know how I used to talk about how there were 185 days of Silver production in short trades? Well, as time has gone on… that number has whittled down to 137 days… Still way tooooooooo many, but, the trend is downward, and that’s a good thing!  I’m just saying… 

You know how I end each day’s letter with the “Be Good To Yourself”? Well, bust my buttons, I saw a quote by the great Dale Carnegie this past weekend, and so let’s see what he has to say: ““If we can’t have all we want, let’s not poison our days with worry and resentment. Let’s be good to ourselves. Let’s be philosophical.”

I find that to be a rule in life… We can’t have everything, so why worry about what we don’t have? Be Good Yourself, and you’ll find that you get everything you need…  I’m just saying.. 

Ok, now my time on the soapbox has come to an end, it’s time to get back to the markets, economies and dolts… But I betcha didn’t think that I could be so philosophical!  

 I received a note to a link for an article by Lola… aka Goldman Sachs, this past weekend that was titled: “Why the dollar can remain strong through 2024″…  Geez Louise, what are they selling us now? I just don’t get it… Lola always comes out and talks her book… and the sheeple all follow what she has to say… I’m willing to bet a shiny quarter that Lola is absolutely wrong about her claim, and that all the sheeple that follow her will be too….  

Moving on… this morning I was taken aback from a headline on YAHOO Finance, and it’s from someone that I hold in high regards, Ray Dalio… here it is: “‘We are near that inflection point’: Billionaire Ray Dalio warns that America is now ‘borrowing money to pay debt service’ — cautions that debt will accelerate just to maintain spending.”

Well, I’m glad that someone in the mainstream of business sees this debt problem like I do… And people like Bill Bonner, Doug Casey, Micael Hudson, and so on… But Dalio is a Times Best Selling Author, and the head of the largest hedge fund in the world… So, sort of like those old E.F. Hutton commercials… When Ray Dalio speaks, everyone listens!  

A dear reader sent me a note from down under, it was an article that talked about how the Aussie dollar was trending higher toward 70-cents… But the gist of the article is that it’s not so much that the A$ is gaining ground, it’s more about how the U.S. dollar is losing ground… The dollar was off 3% in November, and that’s just the start, in my humble opinion…

But I would point out that the A$ & kiwi were the best performing currencies in the last weak dollar trend, as they had both gained over 100%… I had a couple, that told me once that they bought a yacht and sailed around the world on the money they made on those two currencies…. So… there’s that…

So, what will you do? Will you side with the Paul Krugmans of the world? Or, will you take my point of view that the dollar is in deep dookie going forward, and that you need to be diversified with foreign currencies and metals to offset the dollar losses?   I guess we’ll see, eh?

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the ISM (manufacturing ) Index for Nov. and it was still below the 50 mark and in fact fell from Rocktober’s 47.5 to 46.5… This data is true data and it reflects that manufacturing in the U.S. is still contracting, and that’s not a good thing for the economy, folks…  On Thursday we saw Personal Income & Spending and both came in at +.2%, which isn’t anything to write home about… And finally, the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s inflation gauge the PCE was at 3.5% in Rocktober, so…. we’re still not below the 2% mark, even using trumped up data points…  

To recap… The dollar got bought on Thursday last week, and then sold on Friday, to end the week… Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel Chairman, Powell, spoke and tried to get his thoughts across to the markets, who still don’t believe a word he says, and Chuck is scratching his bald head wondering why? Ray Dalio says we are at an “inflection point” with our debt… Uh-oh! Gol gained a whopping $35.30 on Friday, and reached an all-time high of $2,072.00… Chuck wonders who you will side with, Paul Krugman, or him? 

For What It’s Worth… I found this on Ed Steer’s letter from Friday last week, and thought, now, that’s surely FWIW worthy! And so now it appears here this morning… It’s about the Banks unrealized losses, and why that could spell major difficulties going forward, and it can be found here: Unrealized Losses At US Banks Exploded In Q3 | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s Your snippet: “Unrealized losses on securities held by U.S. banks exploded by 22% in the third quarter.

Of course, unrealized losses don’t really matter — until they do.

This is yet more evidence that the financial crisis that kicked off last March continues to bubble under the surface.

Unrealized losses, primarily on U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities rose by $126 billion in Q3 and now total $684 billion, according to the FDIC’s quarterly bank data release.  

It’s important to understand these are only paper losses. Ostensibly, the banks will hold these bonds until maturity and then will be paid their face value. If it plays out this way, there won’t be any real losses.

The problem is that these unrealized losses drastically decrease a bank’s liquidity. If it has to sell bonds in order to raise capital, the bank will experience significant losses. This is exactly what took down Silicon Valley Bank last March.:”

Chuck again… you know it’s like a wise man once told me… Lack of liquidity isn’t a problem until… it is…  And with that I end this FWIW this morning… It’s like the Sword of Damocles hanging over Banks right now…  will it continue to dangle over the heads, or will it drop and pierce them to death? 

Market Prices 12/4/2023: American Style: A$ .6649, kiwi .6192, C$ .7386, euro 1.0870, sterling 1.2674, Swiss $1.1377, European Style: rand 18.7271, krone 10.7410, SEK 10.4059, forint 348.63, zloty 3.986, koruna 22.4249, RUB 90.88, yen 146.50, sing 1.3351, HKD 7.8146, INR 83.36, China 7.1384, peso 17.25, BRL 4.8943, BBDXY 1,235.67, Dollar Index 103.36, Oil $73.35, 10-year 4.24%, Silver $25.32, Platinum $939.00, Palladium $1,004.00, Copper $3.79, and Gold… $1,2067.90

That’s it for today… Well, the college football Playoff teams were announced yesterday… this is the last year that only 4 teams are in the playoffs, next year it goes to 12 teams… Congrats to:  Michigan, Washington, Texas, and Alabama… My beloved Mizzou Tigers will play The Ohio State Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl on December 29th… That’ll be a tough match-up for my Tigers, but they’ll come to play! My beloved Cardinals have signed 3 pitchers, but I have to think that there has to be more, because we can’t go into the season with this Old of a starting staff, one that has a history of injuries… UGH! Well, it’s that time of year again, when I start to make my plans to be on my annual winter vacation… This year it will start on 12/18 and end on 12/27… and of course, there will be the traditional Christmas Pfennig… you never know, I just might Tweet something while on Vacation, if it’s of importance… But usually, at that time of year, there’s nothing much happening in the markets… And with that the great Beggie Adams plays her version of one of my fave holiday songs: Winter Romance…  The first time I ever heard that song, it was sung by Dean Martin, and I was hooked! I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

*Currencies & metals rally on Wednesday

• Why do people follow along when they know something isn’t right?

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! Well, my visit to the hospital to see my oncologist yesterday was easy peasy… She’s concerned about the stomach problems, and bleeding, but also noted that the chemo that’s causing those problems, is shrinking the tumor in my mouth… So… I guess there’s no relief for those two side effects, so I’ll just carry on my wayward son! (Kansas) I went out to my car, which now has to sit outside of the garage, because of all the materials in the garage that the builders are using, and it had frost on the windshield!  I was not ready for that! Have I told you lately how much I despise cold weather? I have? Ok, good… Well, at least you have listened to something I’ve said through the years! HAHAHA!  Oscar Peterson greets me this morning with his version of one of my fave Christmas songs: The Christmas Waltz… 

Well, it must be set in stone… Because all the Wall Street stock jockeys, and economists, say that the Fed Heads will begin to cut rates in June next year… Some are even calling for rates getting slashed! I have a feeling that they are jumping the gun here… But as long as the dollar gets taken to the woodshed for this outlook, then I won’t argue too vehemently against it…  It’s just that these folks don’t have an “in” on info that we don’t, regarding interest rates, they are just making these calls to save the stock market!  There! I said it!   And I won’t be swayed into saying anything else!  

So, on Tuesday this week the dollar got sold down the river, with the BBDXY losing 4 index points on the day… The currencies all rallied with none left behind on the day… Gold kicked some tail and took names later, rallying $26.90 on the day, taking the end of day price to $2.041.50… Silver gained 38-cents on the day to end at $25.10…  Gold & Silver are moving to quickly, folks… They are nearing “overbought levels” on the RSI (Relative Strength Index)… So, while I like the sound of a $27 gain in a day, I’m somewhat concerted that there will be another pullback, so don’t whet your whistle on Gold gaining $27 every day!   

On Wednesday, this week, the dollar rallied from being down 3 index points, to up a bit, actually up 1.5 index points on the day…. All that rally was derived from a trumped-up GDP revision… The propeller heads that put together the GDP calculations somehow, some way, found some extra GDP growth in their paperwork, and said that GPD in the 3^rd QTR was up 5.2%, VS 4.9% in the previous reading…  Now, I’ve been telling you all for weeks now that the U.S. economy was showing signs of circling the bowl, so how does that compute to a strong GDP?   It doesn’t… so, these propeller heads are pulling the wool over my eye!  

Remember, Gov’t Spending is a major part of GDP…  So, even if the GDP was as strong as it they say it was, it was trumped-up with Gov’t spending…  here’s the skinny on the breakdown… Consumer spending was revised down from 4% to 3.6%. Government spending was revised up from 4.6% to 5.5%. All the reports we see have shown that consumption is down… That is until the Black Friday sales began… So, once again, I say that the GPD is balderdash, and is worth a ¼ -cup of coffee… maybe… 

Gold was up $2.10 yesterday, and closed at $2,043.60, while Silver was flat on the day, and remained at $25.10… Now that’s the kind of moves that I expect for Gold, slow, steady, wins the race, right hare?  So, Gold traders and investors didn’t get caught up in all the hoopla of the higher revision of GDP… The price of Oil gained $2 yesterday, and I do believe that it’s today that we’ll see the announcement from OPEC on output… And bonds are gaining back some of their losses in 2022/23, with the ten year’s yield dropping to 4.26%.. (remember, as yields drop the price of the bond goes higher and vice versa). From everything I read, the idea that the Fed is on tap to cut rates soon, has abated… But the bond buying continues… Hmmm… Now, those are things that do make you go Hmmm… 

In the overnight markets last night….the overnight traders must have fallen for the ruse that was a strong GDP number in the U.S. yesterday, and last night they bought dollars… The BBDXY gained 3 index points in the overnight trading, and the euro, which looked like it was ready to hit 1.10 yesterday, has fallen back… Sort of like the Continental Soldiers, fire and fall back! Gold is down $4 to start the day today, and Silver is flat.  Today is the day we’re supposed to hear from our friends (NOT!) at OPEC, and yesterday, the Oil traders took a leap and bought Oil driving the price up $2, and in the overnight markets it gained another buck, to trade this morning with a $78 handle… (Whew! glad I filled my gas tank yesterday!)  

Good friend, Dennis Miller sent me a note the other day, saying: “You called it!”, and then gave me a link to this story from CNBC.com “November’s last auction of Treasury notes ended with a whimper, rather than a bang.

Nearly $40 billion of government debt that matures in seven years was up for sale on Tuesday. The highest yield accepted by investors was 4.399%, well above the average of 4.258% for the prior six such auctions.

…the government had to offer higher yields to entice investors to buy the debt.

Treasury issuance through October this year is 32% higher than at this time in 2022.”

What Dennis was referring to was in interview I did with him, where I explained the dilemma for the U.S. and it’s funding their ever-growing deficit with fewer buyers of their debt… So… for once, something that I said would happen, did so, while the iron is still hot…  I’m just saying… 

Bill Bonner had some thoughts yesterday in his letter www.bonnerprivateresearch.com  Here’s Bill: “How did we get in this situation – with $33.7 trillion of debt…annual interest payments of $1 trillion per year…and rising? Why did voters go along with so many crack-pot schemes and jackass programs?

We’ve seen that it’s not always easy for the ruling classes to get the square pegs of their subjects to go into the round holes they’ve prepared for them. Immigration, for example, may or may not be a good thing…but bring in too many immigrants and ‘The People’ won’t like it.

Still, it is amazing what they will put up with. Yes, that is another characteristic of our kind: the crooked timber bends with the prevailing winds.” – Bill Bonner

Chuck again… yes, I refer to these people as the sheeple… They probably don’t have a nickel of savings, debt up to their eyeballs, and not an ounce of Gold…  and they continue to go along with what the Gov’t is telling them…  Just like the GDP yesterday… what a bunch or horse manure! But People keep spending… their hard-earned money, or the money that was sent to them from the Gov’t… 

this from CNBC.com… “Consumer spending has remained remarkably resilient in the face of some stiff economic headwinds. Nearly all Americans, 96%, are concerned about the current state of the economy, according to a recent report by Intuit Credit Karma.

Still, more than a quarter are “doom spending,” or spending money despite economic and geopolitical concerns, the report found.”

Chuck again… “doom spending”?  So that’s what it’s called now… I like that phrase, because it describes what I just talked about, that people keep spending… 

The Data Cupboard yesterday, had the aforementioned GDP revision… And the Stupid Consumer Confidence was up to 102, from 101…  As I’ve explained previously, this data set, is really just the pulse of the stock market… nothing more, nothing less… So, in my mind, we don’t need it! We get inundated with stock market updates all day long, we don’t need to be spending money on stuff like this… 

And finally, there was a report I read yesterday that said that 60+ bank branches had closed last month… My immediate thought was that banks won’t need branches when they go to digital currency… So, get rid of the fat now…  That’s my take on that news… 

Today’s Data Cupboard has some important data.. .First up we have the usual fare for a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, the weekly initial jobless claims for last week, that was holiday shortened, so don’t get carried away when the number comes in so low… We’ll also see Personal Income and Spending for Rocktober… Both will be disappointing but positive…  And then finally we get to see the color of the Fed’s preferred inflation report, the PCE… (personal consumption expenditures) I don’t expect this to show any gains in inflation dropping from 3.4% annualized rate in September… 

To recap… Tuesday was a humdinger for Gold, as it gained $26.90 on the day!  Silver moved back above $25 too! The dollar got sold, and the currencies all rallied… On Wednesday, Gold’s gain was watered down, which is the preferred method of moving higher by Chuck… “doom spending” is a new phrase… learn it to memory, because I’ll be using it a lot going forward!… And you’re not going to want to miss today’s FWIW… I

For What It’s Worth… This came to me from longtime reader, Bob… And after reading it, I was convinced that it was FWIW worthy… It’s about how so many Americans are going hungry, and then Chuck’s take on it following, and it can be found here: New Study: US Hunger Soaring due to Federal Aid Cuts | Common Dreams

Or, here’s your snippet: “The number of Americans without enough food over a seven-day period was an average of 40% higher in September and October of 2023 than in September and October of 2021, according to a report released today by the nonprofit group Hunger Free America, based on an analysis of federal data.

Over that time period, the number of people without enough food increased from 19.7 million to 27.8 million nationwide.

Hunger Free America attributes the surge in food insecurity to the expiration of the expanded Child Tax Credit and universal school meals. Many federal benefit increases have either gone away entirely, or are being ramped down, even as prices for food, rent, healthcare, and fuel continue to soar. Said Joel Berg, CEO of Hunger Free America, “This report should be a jarring wake up call for our federal, state, and local leaders.”

According to the USDA food insecurity data – a different way of measuring food hardship analyzed by Hunger Free America – 11.9% of Americans, or 38.8 million people, were found to live in food insecure households over the course of a whole year, as averaged for the years between 2020 and 2022. The states with the highest rates of food insecure individuals from 2020-2022 were Texas (19.0%), Arkansas (16.3%), Louisiana (16.1%), Mississippi (15.4%), Oklahoma (15.3%), and South Carolina (15.3%). Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Texas were consistently on the lists of the top ten states with the highest rates of food insecurity for individuals overall, children, employed adults, and older Americans.”

Chuck again… let me see… we have a country that is up to its eyeballs in debt, and not enough tax revenue to even come close to covering the Gov’t’s spending sprees… So, as I’ve explained before, as we go along, there will be items from the list of things we pay for, that will be dropped…  Yes, that will hurt a lot of people, and this should be their wake-up call to get out there and do something about it… I’m just saying…

Market Prices 11/30/ 2023: American Style: A$ .6605, kiwi .6151, C$ .7350, euro 1.0928, sterling 1.2651, Swiss $1.1427, European Style: rand 18.8228, krone 10.7297, SEK 10.4596, forint 347.76, zloty 3.9776, koruna 22.2287, RUB 88.68, yen 147.50, sing 1.3369, HKD 7.8110, INR 83.39, China 7.1372, peso 17.41, BRL 4.9356, BBDXY 1,237.67, Dollar Index 103.21, Oil $78.54, 10-year 4.29%, Silver $25.09, Platinum $941.00, Palladium $1,023.00, Copper $3.76, and Gold… $2,038.47

That’s it for today and this week… tomorrow is Dec 1st… YAHOO that means I only have 1 more month of dealing with Cold weather before I head south! Our Blues get back on the ice tonight at home VS Buffalo, a team that has almost an identical record as the Blues have… Should be an interesting game! My stomach problems have settled down since Monday… And the bleeding has stopped again for a few days… So, I think I’m good to go out today! YAHOO!  Don’t overdo it, Chuck… Well, I was correct earlier this week, when I said that I had gained a few pounds over the Thanksgiving weekend… My oncologist was pleased…  Hmmm…   I told her… Too much pumpkin pie!  Man, do I love pumpkin pie!  OK… Vince Guaraldi Trio takes us to the Finish Line today with his song: Charlie Brown Theme… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Monday
• Savings in America have gone up in smoke…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! It had been a week since I had problem with my stomach, and I thought, hey, this might be the end of that! Well, until it wasn’t the end of that! So, I start this morning, wondering if I will have the same problem as yesterday… It’s not fun, folks, taking chemo every day… But, then it’s not a 3^rd world problem so let’s not dwell on it, Chuck! The weather has turned downright cold here in my little river town, and longtime readers know that I do NOT LIKE COLD WEATHER  But I have to endure it for another month, before I head south for the winter… Jack Jezzro and friends play their bosa nova style versions of Christmas songs, and this morning they are playing: Let it Snow! 

Well, the dollar didn’t move any further down the line yesterday, as it began the day down 1 index point, and stayed the way throughout the day… Gold didn’t move from it’s early morning gain of $11, and Silver from it’s early morning gain of 30-cents… It was as if Monday didn’t happen… 

The price of Oil gained 6-cents to get back above the $75 handle, while bonds were bought once again, what gives here? I thought it had been all talked about that the Fed Heads were not going to pivot soon? Oh, well, whatever… 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar was getting sold when I went to bed, and the BBDXY was down 3 index points, but this morning shows that the dollar is down only pennies… All the currencies look as if they were wearing the same clothes as yesterday… Gold & Silver are down pennies to start the day, so no biggie there… And the price of Oil is inching higher in the $75 handle.. Bonds ddidn’t have any life in them overnight either, with the 10-year’s yield at 4.41% to start the day… So… yesterday’s U.S. and European sessions were duds, and that was followed by the overnight markets also being duds… I guess no data yesterday, except the housing stuff, was the catalyst to the duds… So… we move along here, these are not the droids we’re looking for. 

With little movement, if any at all, yesterday, the news articles about the markets were lacking at best… So, as I look at the blank screen, I’m thinking… Today will be short-n-sweet…  But let’s play it out and see where this goes, eh? 

I think I’ve beaten the dead horse, (no animals were hurt here),  with regards to the Treasury issuance plethora, and the lack of buyers for the bonds, and what will do to bond servicing costs, (go higher and higher), and all that goes with that scenario… So, I won’t go through it all again today, but… If you are in need of some information on it, simply go to www.dailypfennig.com  and find a previously written article and re-read it! 

Well, the numbers are in for the Black Friday sales, and the cyber Monday sales, and the one thing that sticks out to me is the rise in Credit cards… Now, me personally auto pays my monthly purchases off each month… But I would have to think that I’m the minority here, because Credit Card debt has now gone past $1 Trillion!!!!   American Savings has gone to zero… and Credit Card debt is soaring… That doesn’t have a good ending in my opinion… There will be tears, and they won’t be mine! 

But sales for those two days were strong, and much stronger than last year, so the retailers have that going for them… That is as long as they didn’t discount everything to cost!  Now that would be a real heart-ache for the retailers if they did that, which I doubt they did… 

I titled yesterday’s Pfennig: Dollar Selling Begins to Gain Momemtun…  And during the letter yesterday, I said that the momentum had been slow to gain…  And yesterday was a good example of what I’m talking about… The down days for the dollar have been piling up… with only the brief rallies provided by the PPT,  But the downward moves have been small, but that’s how a trend begins folks.. slow and steady, until it builds to a crescendo… So, dont’ be jumping the gun and thinking that the weak dollar trend that I’m seeing isn’t coming to fruition, it’s just taking its sweet time getting there… 

Last week, at least I think it was last week, I talked about how the Chinese renminbi had rallied and looked much healthier than it had in some time…  I came across this on Bloomberg.com  that explains the renminbi rally: “China’s yuan is set to be boosted by year-end tailwinds and by speculation its recent rebound will encourage exporters to step up dollar sales, analysts say.

The currency has strengthened in both November and December in each of the past six years, with the biggest gains coming in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yuan tends to rise in these months as exporters need more local currency to meet cash demand before year-end and Lunar New Year, China International Capital Corp. said in a report.”

Chuck again… For those of you new to currencies, etc. The official name of the Chinese currency is the renminbi, not the yuan… Sort of like here in the U.S. we have the dollar, but some call it the buck…  I’ve always maintained that yuan is easier to spell and say for the media, and so they use that instead of renminbi…  I’ll continue to always call it by its official name, renminbi…  I’ve never been one to take short-cuts! So, why start now? 

I do believe that it was in 2009 that I was asked by Forbes to write about the weak dollar trend, but to not use the euro in my piece… Well, that was easy for me, because the currencies of Norway & Sweden were just as strong as the euro! And they had higher interest rates than the Eurozone. So, I went about eplaining how Norway had a Sov Wealth Fund that was fully funded so that every person alive in Norway would have a retirement fund awaiting for them that was worth a lot… And that Norway was also a Petrol Currency, with their North Sea Oil business, and that was what had fueled their Sov. Wealth Fund…  The article got printed, and I bought about 10 copies of the issue… Later that year, my family visited an aunt and uncle in Corpus Christi Tex… And the aunt, bless her heart, said, to me when I walked through the door, “here he is Paul, the famous writer in Forbes”!   I was shocked that she even read Forbes! 

All those things that I wrote about in 2006 about Norway remain to the present time… And so… it remains that I think if one wants to own a currency that isn’t the euro, that shifting their eyes to Norway or even Sweden, they not only get their association with the euro, but also Oil pricing…   

Before that article, I used to write for the Currency Capitalist newsletter that the Sov. Society used to print… And I explained how Sweden had been through a banking crisis much like the U.S. had just gone through, but Sweden did it differently, instead of bailing out failing banks, they allowed them to fail… pick up the pieces and move on… To me, that was more like I was educated that businesses should be treated, and not nestled in the laps of Gov’t’s…. 

And to me, Sweden should be given credit for not succuming to the calls to shut everything down during the plandemic… They were called out for this, and people claimed that they were going to kill their people.. But when all the numbers were gathered, Sweden’ death rate was the same as before…  They had not killed their people, instead they gave their people freedoms that we didn’t have in the land of the free and home of the brave… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard didn’t have anything for us yesterday, except new Home Sales, which plunged 5.6% in Rocktober… As if we didn’t think that this would happen with mortgage rates at highs in 2023…   

Today’s Data Cupboard has the Stupid Consumer Confidence for Rocktober, and the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) for September… And then add in 5 different Fed Head speakers out on the road today… 

To recap… The dollar selling momentum stalled in yesterday’s U.S. session, but the dollar didn’t gain either… It was as if Monday didn’t happen… Which, Chuck wishes was true, as his Monday was not fun… Gold has triple topped at $2,000, and Chuck pointed out yesterday, that it usuall means an upswide swing for an asset… Gold gained $11 yesterday, and Silver gained 30-cents… Data was weak, as usual, yesterday, and there wasn’t much to talk about today… 

For What It’s Worth… This article came to me yesterday from long time associate, Doug Casey, who talks about something that I’ve hinted at for some time now, and that is people are finally waking up and seeing that everything is no hunky dory in the economy, and that article can be found here: www.internationalman.com 

Or, here’s your snippet: “As the Great Unravelling progresses, we shall be seeing many negative developments, some of them unprecedented.

Only a year ago, the average person was still hanging on to the belief that the world is in a state of recovery, that, however tentative, the economy was on the mend.

And this is understandable. After all, the media have been doing a bang-up job of explaining the situation in a way that treats recovery as a general assumption. The only point of discussion is the method applied to achieve the recovery, but the recovery itself is treated as a given.

However, as thorough a distraction as the media (and the governments of the world) have provided, the average person has begun to recognise that something is fundamentally wrong. He now has a gut feeling that, even if he is not well-versed enough to describe in economic terms what is incorrect in the endless chatter he sees on his television, he now senses that the situation will not end well.

I tend to liken his situation to someone who suddenly finds all the lights off in his house. He stumbles around in the dark, trying to feel his way. Although he can picture in his mind what the layout of his house is, he is having trouble navigating, often bumping into things. This is similar to the attempt to see through the media and government smokescreens during normal times.”

Chuck again… Doug goes on to explain that everything starts out slow, like the recognition of things not being right, and then come on with a bang!   So, be ready for the bang!   Got Gold? 

Market Prices 11/28/2023: American Style: A$ .6607, kiwi .6090, C$ .7355, euro 1.0952, sterling 1.2617, Swiss $1.1348, European Style: rand 18.6867, krone 10.6909, SEK 10.4333, forint 345.46, zloty 3.0624, koruna 22.2453, RUB 88.79, yen 148.56, sing 1.3364, HKD 7.7967, INR 83.34, China 7.1534, peso 17.18, BRL 4.8946, BBDXY 1,236.46, Dollar Index 103.26, Oil $75.56, 10-year 4.41%, Silver $24.62, Platinum $932.00, Palladium $1,065.00, Copper $3.75, and Gold… $2,013.77

That’s it for today… Only 2 more days in my most dispised Month… Yahoo!  I didn’t feel like going out last night, so I missed seeing my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace perform in a music show… UGH! You know I had to be feeling pretty weak to not go see her!  I hope there are more times in the future to see her perform!  Kathy’s Christmas Gift arrived Sunday, and I told her to go ahead and open it… She refused, so it sits there waiting for Christmas Day…  She picked it out, so there’s not surprise there! I’ve found that this way is the best way, because as the year goes on, if she needs something, she buys it… This way, I get her what she wants!   And not what I think she’ll want… The Great, Bing Crosby takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas…  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today… And please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals rally on Friday last week
• Oil is waiting on OPEC…

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! How was your Thanksgiving holiday weekend? Lots of football was played, by the pros and collegians… I was in seventh heaven, as all my kids, and grandkids were here, even poor Everett with his surgically repaired ankle, that’s still in a cast… He couldn’t wrestle around with his cousin, Braden, this time, so it was quiet fun from them! Whenever the grandkids stay the night, we make them put down their phones or iPads and play board games with us, so we can all talk…  They like the board games, it’s just that they like their video games better… Well, it’s that time of year again, I’ve switched my morning listening to Pandora’s Smooth Jazz Christmas station… So, this morning, The David Ian Trio greets me with their version of the song: I Heard The Bells On Christmas Day… 

Well… Friday, black Friday, that is/ was… Saw more proof in the pudding that the U.S. economy is circling the bowl, as Durable Goods Orders for Rocktober printed negative -5.4%!  I’ll have more on the data front later today, I just wanted to use that a preface for what I’m going to talk about today…  Friday saw the dollar slide, and the call for a Fed Heads pivot begin to wane… Gold gained $10 on the day, and Silver was the shining star of the day, gaining 61-cents to close the week at $24.42… Gold closed the week at $2,003.70… Apparently, it was all about the change of heart from traders that got the dollar sold, and Gold & Silver bought…  it did NOT appear to have dampened the bond traders as the yield on the 10-year remained steady at 4.47%… 

The price of Oil slid $2 on Friday to end the week with a $75 handle… I still believe that the OPEC meeting will do something to goose the price of Oil, but I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see…  I have heard of some pre-meeting disputes about output, so that should put the meeting on edge, don’t you think? 

In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold a little more, as momentum for selling the dollar is being stubborn right now… The BBDXY lost 1 index point overnight. Gold is up $11 in the early trading today, while Silver has gained 30-cents to start the day… This change of heart by traders and economists (me not included, for I never fell for that snake oil they were selling!) , that now believe that the Fed Heads are not speaking with a forked tongue, when they say that rates will remain high for longer, has got the dollar on the downward run.  I look at the currencies on the screen and I see that the Euro Wanna Bes are hot right now, and that usually spells dollar weakness is deep, as dollar weakness at first is always seen in the euro rallying…  

All that dollar buying that went on while the Fed Heads were hiking rates, is now being unwound, but it will take some time to unwind it all… I’m just saying…  The price of Oil dropped below $75, to $74.95 overnight, while we wait for an announcement from the OPEC members who are still meeting…  They, the Opec Members, must be working on just how they want to word their output reduction announcement, for this is taking way toooo long for them to make the announcement… 

And the bond boys are beginning to come around to the think like the rest of the markets, as yield begin to rise again… And IF all this bond buying ends, then it will prove that what I said it was a “bear market rally”, was bang on! The yield on the 10-year this morning is 4.46%… 

You know I had this all lined up to talk about how the U.S. economy keeps showing signs of circling the bowl… And then it occurred to me that I should think about that more… Because IF the change of heart on the Fed Heads intentions are real, that would mean they given in to the “interest rates higher an longer” mantra… But… if the economy is circling the bowl, that would mean that the Fed Heads’ intentions to keep rates where they are, would have to be changed… This is a real conundrum that we’re in folks… And just shows to go ya, that no one can figure out what comes next… And in that vein, you’d have to think that Gold & Silver would blossom…  Because, as I’ve told you all dear readers for years, Traders do not like unknowns…   And to deal with an unknown is to sell stocks, and everything else that isn’t tied down, like Gold & Silver!   I’m just saying… 

The dollar keeps showing signs of wanting to go lower, but then those pesky PTTers come in and keep the dollar from going lower… The economic data in the U.S. has all been shaky, to say the least, and more and more I keep reading more observers saying that the debt problem (financing it) is getting worse, and worse… Well, when everyone finally sees what I see, and that is financing our debt is going to be the death of our financial system, that’s when Gold will finally take its place at the head of the table once again! 

And here’s another thought on Gold… It seems that a “triple topping” has taken place in Gold ($2,000), and that usually spells a breakout to the upside for an asset…  That’s my contribution to the charts… My longtime friend, and chartists, go to guy, Sean Hyman, would probably agree with me on that, so I have that going for me!  

Another metal, base metal that is, that’s been inching higher again, is Copper…  I’ve been reading alot about strikes at mines in S. America, and a shortage of the metal… This increase in the price of Copper won’t help inflation go away… As many things use Copper, and their prices will have to go higher too…  I’m just saying… 

Getting back to the question I asked last Wednesday… “Am I the only one that sees what is happening here?”   Longtime friend, # 1 author, and publishing guru, Bill Bonner, has this to say… “Interest on the federal debt is now so immense that it’s consuming 40% of all personal income taxes. The largest source of revenue for the federal government is increasingly being devoted to just servicing the debt, not even paying it down.

The problem is getting worse daily and will eventually result in even more pain for taxpayers.

The recent monthly Treasury statement from the Fiscal Service showed that the Treasury Department paid $88.9 billion in October on interest for the federal debt. That’s almost double what it paid in October of the previous year.” – Bill Bonner@  bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com 

Chuck again… Well, when I asked that question, I didn’t mean to say that folks like Bill, didn’t see the problem!  So, I did some simple math an annualizing the debt payment in Rocktober, we get $ 1.067 Trillion in debt payments in the next year…. And we’re just getting started! A lot of the low yielding bonds that we issued years ago, will be coming due, and they’ll have to be rolled into new higher yielding bonds, thus making the debt servicing costs much, much higher… And that means that you, me, and guy down the street, that puts his Christmas lights up in Rocktober, will be seeing our tax dollars go to more of the debt servicing, instead of paying for things like police and fire protection! 

Oh, you’re a bundle of good news this morning Chuck!  Hey! I wish I didn’t have to talk about stuff like this, that our leaders back in 2000, saw the direction the debt was going, and decided then to do something about it… But we all know that’s not what happened, and thus, here we are… 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the aforementioned Durable Goods Orders for Rocktober that were a negative -5.4%, and that was about it, except for the Stupid Consumer Confidence report which showed that Consumer are feeling better about what’s going on, which only goes to prove that the Gov’t’s pulling the wool over their collective eyes is working…   That, and the fact that the stock market did fare a bit better in Rocktober, but who’s to say that will continue, given the change of hear in the market’s collective minds about what the Fed  Heads are going to do… 

To recap… The PPT made an appearance late last week, but there were turned aside as we headed to the weekend, with the dollar getting sold… Gold climbed back above $2,000 for the third time in this cycle, and Chuck believes that the charts people call this a “triple topping”, which normally means the asset is ready to take off to the upside… I guess we’ll have to see, eh?  Chuck keeps pointing out how the debt servicing costs are growing, and will eventually bring our economy to its knees…  That and there’s more today, so go back and read it if you scanned over it first!

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to share with you a link to a video, that features a guy giving his forewarning about what he sees will happen in the U.S…. Well, OK… but here’s the catch… It’s from 1958!!!! So, go ahead and click on it if you care to, otherwise skip ahead: A Prediction From 1958 – The Burning Platform

For What It’s Worth…  Ok, this is quite a different viewpoint this morning… This article came to me from longtime reader, Bob… And it’s about how confident days lead to bad decisions… And it can be found here: Higher levels of financial optimism associated with lower levels of cognitive ability (phys.org)

Or, here’s your snippet:”A behavioral economist at the University of Bath in the U.K. has found evidence linking higher levels of unwarranted financial optimism with lower levels of cognitive ability. In his study, published in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, Chris Dawson surveyed thousands of people in the U.K. about their economic outlook and compared their responses with their true financial outlook.

Prior research has found links between a sunny outlook and better health and also a higher overall quality of life, including better relationships with people. But it has also shown that being overly optimistic can lead people to make poor decisions, such as how much to save for retirement. In this new study, Dawson looked for an association between unrealistic optimism and cognitive ability regarding financial decision-making.

Suspecting that people with lower cognitive abilities tended to overestimate their financial acumen, and thus make poor financial decisions, Dawson accessed the data repository of the Understanding Society project, which conducted a longitudinal survey involving more than 40,000 households in the U.K. and Northern Ireland over the years 2009 to 2021. He also analyzed data from the British Household Panel Survey run from 1991 to 2008.

The surveys queried respondents about their financial situation along with their expectations for the future. And because respondents were queried more than once over the course of the survey, Dawson was able to compare their earlier expectations with how things had actually panned out years later. Also included in the surveys were questions designed to assess several traits associated with cognitive ability, such as memory, word recall, verbal fluency, math ability and abstract thought.”

Chuck again…  So, now I see, said the blind man as he spit into the wind… “it’s all coming back to me now”… So, all this time that laughed at those Consumer Confidence reports, they were really telling me that the respondents were making bad decisions… Who’d a thought that?  Very interesting indeed! 

Market Prices 11/27/2023: American Style: A$ .6605, kiwi .6098, C$ .7335, euro 1.0955, sterling 1.2638, Swiss $1.1377, European Style: rand 18.6602, krone 10.6674, SEK 10.4220, forint 346.97, zloty 3.9762, koruna 22.2412, RUB 88.70, yen 148.86, sing 1.3371, HKD 7.7902, INR 83.37, China 7.1529, peso 17.02, BRL 4.8932, BBDXY 1,237.14, Dollar Index 103.25, Oil $74.95, 10-year 4.46%, Silver $24.72, Platinum $933.00, Palladium $1,082, Copper $3.74, and Gold… $2,014.00

That’s it for today… Just three Pfennigs this week, as on Wednesday, I’ll be seeing my oncologist early in the morning…  I think that since I recovered from that stomach bug that I had, that I’ve gained some weight back… Not much, just a few pounds… We did have Thanksgiving last week, is what I’ll say when she tells me the results… Man was a bad grandfather last week, when I said that grandson, Everett’s birthday was Thursday, only to find out that it is today! So, Happy Birthday, again Bud!  My beloved Mizzou Tigers won their final regular season game last Saturday at Arkansas, ending the season 10-2… A GREAT SEASON!  YAHOO!  I sure hope all the seniors stay with the team for the Bowl Game, whenever that will be… Our St. Louis U. Billikens won on Saturday in basketball, as did the Mizzou Tigers… And looky there our Blues beat the Blackhawks in a Sunday matinee game! The Blues have been hot-n-cold to start their season so far… UGH!  The Vince Guaraldi trio takes us to the finish line today with their version of the song: Christmas Time Is Here…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and that you will Please Be Good To Yourself! 

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals see a dollar rally from left field!
• What’s going on in Japan?

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The day before Thanksgiving, and tonight is the busiest night out of the year, as all the college students that have been gone, come home, and go out to meet up with their high school friends…  Did you remember that I would be out of pocket yesterday? NO? Well then… good! Humble Pie greets me this morning with their classic rock song: I Don’t Need No Doctor! 

Well, Pfennig tradition calls for this… here we go! 

Turkey for me, turkey for you

Let’s eat the turkey in my big brown shoe

Love to eat the turkey at the table

I once saw a movie with Betty Grable… 

courtesy of Adam Sandler! 

Ok…  here we go with a 2-day breakdown again… On Monday this week the dollar continued to get sold, and ended the day down almost 6 index points, to 1,239…  But Gold couldn’t find enough buyers to get it out of the early morning red, and ended up down $3.50 to end the day at $1,978.60… Silver never did fight back from its early morning loss and ended the day down 30-cents, for an end of day price of $23.51… 

The price of Oil remained in the $77 handle… And while the dollar didn’t get bought, bonds did, and the 10-year’s yield fell to 4.42%.

And while I was on a plane coming back home yesterday, the dollar got… sold early, but recovered to end the day at 1,240… I guess I was looking for the PPT the other day, and look who I found?  Oh well, the cows are in the barn, on this folks… I do believe we’re heading to a long period of dollar weakness…  Gold had a smash up day going, and at one point it had traded past $2,000 to $2,002 and change… But some last minute heroics by the short paper traders saw that Gold only gained $20 on the day, to end the day at $1,998… Ever sooooo, close to $2,000, once again!  Silver had about the same trading pattern as Gold did, so to save you from the theatrics of how it all went, I’ll just say that Silver gained 31-cents on the day, to close at $23.82…   The price of Oil remained in the $77 handle, and Bonds were adrift in a sea of darkness all day with the 10-year’s yield ending the day at 4.41%

In the overnight markets last night… The PPT’s foray into the currency markets yesterday, led to the overnight traders buying some more dollars. The BBDXY is up 1 index point to start the day today… The euro is hanging on to the 1.09 figure, so not all’s lost, after the rally from left field for the dollar, yesterday…  Gold is up $4 in the early trading this morning, which brings Gold back above $2,000… And Silver is up 4-cents to start the day… 

There’s some suspicious trading in Oil going on right now… I say that because our friends (NOT!) at OPEC are going to be starting a meeting today, and by all accounts that have been observing what the OPEC members have been saying, the thought here is that they will call for more production cuts, which should be a feather in the hat of the price of Oil… But, as I look at the WTI price this morning, Oil has slipped $2 and start the day, and the OPEC meeting trading with a $75 handle… 

And Bonds continue to get bought… I just don’t see what the attraction here is, but somebody does… And the 10-year’s yield has fallen to 4.37%… Well, I say I don’t see what is going on here, but I really do… You see, housing was teetering, just yesterday, it was announced that Housing Starts fell from the sky, back to 2010 levels… Well, the Gov’t can’t have that going on in the middle of an election year that’s coming…  and why is that? Because mortgage rates were getting too high, and mortgage rates are derived from the 10-year Treasury… So, here’s the solution to that bag of worms… Get the 10-year Treasury’s yield to drop…  How to do that? Buy it like there’s no tomorrow, and who’s doing the buying? Ahem… You know who… 

Ok… longtime readers know my affection for the writing of one Grant Williams, he of Things That Make You Go Hmmmm… fame…  Well, he had this bit in his latest letter, and I found it very interesting regarding Japan…  ““When  we  normalize  short-term interest  rates,  we  will have  to  be  careful about  what will  happen to  financial institutions, what will happen to borrowers of   money   in   general   and   what   will   happen   to   aggregate  demand,”  Ueda  said. “

Now Ueda is the Bank of Japan Gov. and did you catch what he said? He didn’t say “if we normalize rate”, he said “When” we normalize rates… OMG! You mean to tell me that the Bank Of Japan (BOJ) is seriously thinking about normalizing interest rates? 

What on earth would that do to the U.S.’ s plight of finding buyers for their debt / bonds? Thinking about this gives me a headache, but, I’ll carry through here… Buyers of all kinds, Gov, Corp, Personal, hedge funds, Pension funds, etc.  have all ignored Japan for decades now… And the BOJ has already said that they were dropping their Yield Curve Control… So, IF the BOJ is serious about returning to normal rates, then Japanese bonds would become something that all those buyers above might be interested in again, and that would take buyers away from U.S. debt/ bonds… Uh-Oh!    

PS… and just when the U.S. has a ton of maturities coming due, and has to roll them into new bonds, in addition to the new bonds that will finance new debt…   

I ask myself each and every day…. “Am I the only one seeing this problem?” Because the markets sure don’t see it as a problem, hedge funds don’t see it as a problem, Pension and Retirement funds don’t see it as a problem, and I could go on…  or, as has been the case with everything in my career of writing, they seem so evident to me, but they aren’t imminent at the moment… But they will, eventually… 

I know, I know, today is the day before Thanksgiving, and I need to be more upbeat, but I want to tell you this now, so maybe you’ll hear me later… I AM UPBEAT THIS MORNING!  

You should be around me when I’m down in the dumps… Like Monday, I was here by myself, and my stomach went bonkers on me… I had plans to go out to dinner for my last night here, but instead, had to settle for saltines and water…  Oh, those 3^rd world problems, eh? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has Durable Goods Orders for Rocktober… I suspect that they will print negative, but then that’s just me looking back at Factory Orders which were negative… On Monday, we saw the Leading Indicators for Rocktober, and they were negative once again… For the 19^th consecutive month, they have fallen… The last time that had happened was the great financial recession of 2007-2008…   I know, the powers that be still haven’t said that we’re in a recession, but lordy, does it ever feel like one with all these negative economic prints!  I’m just saying… 

To recap… The dollar got bought, to a degree, last night, after suffering through late last week’s price collapse in the dollar, the PPT has done the trick once again, and yesterday the dollar had a rally that came from left field… UGH!  What’s going on in Japan? Chuck has his finger on the pulse there… And the economic reports just keep printing negative, and the sheeple go along with the Company line, that everything is funky dory… I cringe, thinking about that, so let’s forget that I said that and go make sure our Turkeys are thawed!   

For What It’s Worth…  I found this article on Bloomberg, while looking for something else… It’s about how China and the Saudis have signed a currency swap agreement… I remember telling audiences that when this happened, we would begin to see the end of the dollar as a reserve currency… So, now it’s happened… And the article can be found here: China, Saudi Arabia Central Banks Sign Currency Swap – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “China and Saudi Arabia have signed a local-currency swap agreement worth around $7 billion, deepening their ties as countries across the Middle East look to shift more of their non-oil trade away from the dollar.

The two countries’ central banks have agreed on a three-year deal for a maximum of 50 billion yuan or 26 billion riyals, according to their separate statements on Monday. China, which has been promoting the yuan’s use in transactions with major energy and commodity exporters, is Saudi Arabia’s biggest trade partner.

The swap arrangement will “help strengthen financial cooperation” and “facilitate more convenient trade and investment” between the two countries, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement. The Saudi central bank made similar comments.

The deal is the latest sign of strengthening relations between Beijing and Riyadh. Though Saudi Arabia has long been one of China’s main suppliers of oil, business ties have expanded in recent years, with Saudi Aramco investing billions of dollars in China’s petrochemicals sector and the kingdom trying to attract Chinese tech companies.”

Chuck again… See what I was talking about earlier this morning about me seeing stuff that’s going to happen, and then eventually it does? It had to be at least 10 years ago that I stood on that stage with a crowd of people all around me in chairs, on the floor, standing against the wall, and I described the currency swap agreements that China was getting other countries, mainly their trading partners to sign with them, agreeing to remove dollars from the terms of the transaction and only use each respective country’s currency instead of dollars…  At first these were small countries, but then the larger countries began to sign the agreements with China, and that’s when I told the audience that when oil is no longer priced for everyone in dollars, it would begin the dollar circling the bowl…   And now… 10 years later… 

Market Prices 11/22/2023: American Style: A$ .6561, kiwi .6035, C$ .7290, euro 1.0906, sterling 1.2534, Swiss $1.1314, European Style: rand 18.6256, krone 10.7183, SEK 10.4382, forint 349.96, zloty 4.0010, koruna 22.4963, RUB 88.35, yen 148.75, sing 1.3409, HKD 7.7959, INR 83.32, China 7.1503, peso 17.19, BRL 4.8863, BBDXY 1,241.18, Dollar Index 103.66, Oil $75.03, 10-year 4.37%, Silver $23.86, Platinum $939.00, Palladium $1,077.00, Copper $3.74, and Gold… $2002.06

That’s it for today, and this week… A short week, but… I look at this way… 16 years ago, I didn’t know if I would still be here today, and look! I am here! So, I take things as they are… roll with the punches… my favorite saying is: it is, what it is…  As Popeye used to say… “I yam what I yam, and that’s all that I yam”…  I just have one question for the airlines… Since when do you allow passengers that can walk on a plane, get on before the wheelchair people get on? I’ll hang up and listen to the answer…  I’m going to smoke a turkey this year, that’s in addition to the turkey that Kathy will roast in the oven…  The Thanksgiving clan continues to grow… I hope it’s not too cold outside tomorrow! If it is cold, then I’ll wish I hadn’t volunteered to smoke a turkey this year! I do believe that all 3 of my kids, and their families will be here tomorrow, Yahoo!  It’s that time of year, when I don’t get to see them that often… And the girls always make me smile…Dawn, Delaney, Rachel, Evie, and Grace!  The Moody Blues take us to the finish line today, with their song from the Seventh Sojourn album (one of my all-time fave Albums): Isn’t Life Strange….  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and a truly Blessed Thanksgiving tomorrow… I’ll talk to you next on Monday next week… Please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• Currencies & metals are rallying as dollar gets sold…
• What’s China thinking?

Good Day, and a Marvelous Monday to you!  Well, it was a long night, Wednesday night… We had water coming in from the unit above us. the wind was howling, there was a driving rain, our storm shutters were making all kinds of noises, and both Kathy and Chuck were up all-night placing buckets, wringing out towels, moving furniture, and making sure the water didn’t get to the unit below us… Now, wouldn’t it have been nice for the people above us cared about our unit like we cared about the one below us?  Anyway… I stayed behind to deal with this, while Kathy went home as planned, to deal with the construction people… UGH!  So, I didn’t write Thursday morning, because I had finally gotten back to sleep! And I’m here all by myself again! R.E.M. greets me this morning with their big 80’s song: The One I Love… 

Well, Thursday saw the dollar drift throughout the day, going up 2 index points and then back down to finally settle up 1 index point for the day… The BBDXY had lost 15 index points the day before (Wednesday, after the stupid CPI report was digested, and caused me indigestion!)  So, the selling was swift, and strong , so there was bound to be some trade adjusting done on Thursday…  

Gold kick some tail on Thursday, and took names later! Gold gained $21.60 to end the day at $1,281.80, and Silver gained 30-cents to end the day at $22.82… 

On Friday, last week, Gold continued to drive upward, until… the short paper traders showed up… Gold had moved to $1,996, but had to settle for just a 30-cent gain on the day, to end the week at $1,981.10… Silver had the same trading arc… Silver was up $24.22, when the lights went out in Georgia, and it had to settle for a flat day,  and end the week at $23.71…   For those of you keeping score at home, that’s $15 taken from Gold, and 50-cents taken from Silver!   

And the dollar continued to get sold… The BBDXY lost another 4 index points on Friday, to end the week at 1,245…

The old Dollar Index fell below 104… and the euro DID trade through 1.09!  Haven’t I always told you, well that is after the euro went through its initial baby steps, falling down quite a bit, that the euro had become the offset currency to the dollar, and therefore, whenever there was dollar selling, all you had to do was check the euro’s price, to garner just how much the dollar had fallen…  

The price of Oil fell out of bed on Thursday, and then regained what it lost on Friday, to end the week trading with a $75 handle… Strange two days for sure, as there were reports that supplies had gained on Thursday, which had Oil running for cover, but by Friday, that was all in the past… I’m still of the opinion that these are low levels that we’ll look back on in the coming months…  I’m just saying…

And bonds continued to get bought… I have something to say about all that in a minute… so stay with me here… not that you have anywhere else to go! HA!  The 10-year ended the week with a 4.43% yield…  That’s a far cry from the 5% yield we saw in Rocktober now, isn’t it? 

In the overnight markets last night…  Another 4.5 index points have been shaved from the dollar’s BBDXY index, indicating that the dollar was sold last night… I wonder what the PPT is doing? Have they left their positions, and gone out to find a fresh Turkey? Oh, good riddance to them if they have decided to throw in the towel… Gold & Silver aren’t faring well this morning either though… Gold is down $9 to start the day/ week, and Silver had given back 24-cents… Profit taking? While there may be some of that going on, this walks like, talks like, a duck, I mean short paper trading…  I’ll find out today if that was the case… 

I highlighted the euro above, but there are a couple of other currencies that are looking much better these days, and they include the pound sterling, Swiss francs, Russian rubles, and all three of the Euro Wannabes, zloty, forint, and koruna, and longtime readers will recall me talking about how when all three of those get to rallying, that a route on the dollar is on… So, we have that going for us this morning! 

And don’t look now, Hey! I told you not to look now! Ok… what I want to highlight here is that the Chinese renminbi was allowed to really take a chunk out of the price, and it trades this morning at 7.16!!!!!   WOW! Just last week it was 7.29… So, the Chinese are allowing the renminbi to rally VS the dollar, I have to think that there is some games men ship going on here, with the Chinese not buying Treasuries, and getting the Saudis to trade Oil in renminbi, and now this.. Is this all to show the world that the dollar is not the end all any longer?  I wouldn’t doubt it at all… I’m just saying… 

The price of Oil is up a buck this morning and trades with a $77 handle… While bonds…. well… the continue to get bought, I just can’t get my arms around this new bond rally… All the things that point to bonds not rallying are still in place, it’s just getting bought because of the new “the Fed Heads will cut rates by March 2024” mantra that’s getting all the air play on the radio, that has bonds getting bought… Be careful here… That’s all I have to say about that… 

I was writing out some answers to questions that were presented to me from good friend, Dennis Miller on Thursday, and in them I explained that I looked at the markets call that the Fed would be cutting rates starting next March, and that had the stocks all lathered up, that the stock rally was nothing more than a bear market rally…  after I had sent them to him, I saw this headline on MaketWatch.com “Seventh time a charm? Here are the other six times the market wrongly thought there’d be a dovish pivot.”  How about that timing!  They say you shouldn’t fight the Markets… Well, in this case, I’m going to pick a fight with them, because they’ve been like the boy who cried wolf, with their pivot calls, and what makes anyone think they got it right this time?  I sure don’t! So, be careful out there in stock jockey land…

One of the Fed Heads talked last week about additional rate hikes…  Hmmm… no sign of a pivot here, eh? 

I saw last week a report that talked about how the Fed had delivered us a soft landing…  Hmmm, isn’t that putting the cart before the horse? We haven’t gone through the whole cycle yet! And we’ve still got industrial production down, (and just printed negative!), Manufacturing still below 50, leading indicators showing negative for over 9 months, the yield curve still inverted, and a whole host of other data prints that do NOT show that we’ve experienced a soft landing…  I’m just saying!

And here are some chilling numbers and words from longtime friend, Bill Bonner from his letter last week: “The US still borrows huge amounts of money. The average interest rate on consumer credit card purchases is now over 21%. Bloomberg reports that some auto buyers are paying 29% on their car loans. Mortgage rates have come down but are still twice what they were three years ago.

Meanwhile, the largest borrower in the world – the US federal government – runs a deficit of $7 billion every day, Monday through Friday. And it has some $7.6 trillion in old loans that it must roll over in the next 12 months. Its two major lenders – China and the Fed – have both stopped buying. Shouldn’t the feds cut back…and stop borrowing so much money?”

Chuck again… yes that’s what I’ve been harping about for a couple of decades now! 

I’ve got an interview with Dennis Miller that will be hitting the inboxes of his subscribers in a couple of weeks, and I didn’t pull any punches, folks… So, if you don’t already subscribe to his newsletter, then go to: www.milleronthemoney.com and sign up… And don’t worry… It’s free! 

Ok… I read this past weekend that Andrew Maguire, who watches Gold like a hawk, believes that Central Banks will require a Gold revaluation in 2024… Whoa there partner! What kind of revaluation?  Well, Maguire believes that that gold increasingly is viewed as a better risk-free asset and market hedge than U.S. Treasury bonds, that  “the exchange-traded gold fund GLD is under an attack seeking to convert its shares into real metal for delivery to Russia and China, and that the “trade at settlement” mechanism for trading gold futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange is the only device still available to the U.S. government and its agent banks for price suppression.”

I thank the good folks at Gata for sending me that note, along with a link to a video of Maguire talking about this revaluation…  Ok, we’ve heard rumors of a pending revaluation of Gold for years now… But if he’s right, and Central Bank will require it, then that’s a different story, with a different ending… I’m just saying…  Oh, and.. Got Gold? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard had some damaging economic reports last week… Let’s go through them quickly here: Retail Sales for Rocktober were negative… Industrial Production was negative… Durable Goods Orders lacked any Oomph! And Initial Jobless Claims were 10,000 more than expected, and trending the wrong way… And all the Gov’t had to hand its hat on was the STUPID CPI!  You know the report that even with all the hedonic adjustments, still shows consumer inflation way over the 2% target the Fed Heads have for inflation…  

With this being a work shortened week with the Holiday, there’s not a lot of data to look at this week… We do start the week with the Leading Indicators, which have been negative for months now, and will continue to be, as long as the Gov’t doesn’t get a hold of the data!  Tomorrow we’ll see the latest Durable Goods Orders, and judging from what I’ve seen so far, the data should go negative in Rocktober…    So… the dollar is on its own this week ahead of Thanksgiving… And so far, it appears that the dollar will not get any stuffing…  HA!  

To recap… The dollar got whacked late last week… Gold & Silver rebounded… Bonds continued to rally on some very shaky trade thoughts… Chuck throws cold water on the folks saying that the Fed Heads had delivered us a soft landing… And Andrew Maguire is calling for a Central Bank originated Gold revaluation… Hmmm… 

For What It’s Worth…  I’ve talked about a Silver shortage for a long time now, and it’s never materialized, but Ted Butler, no relation that I know of, asked a simple question to the SEC and the CFTC (regulators)  last week, and I’ve got his question detailed for you here… This was sent to me by the good folks at GATA, and it can be found here: An Answer Long-Overdue | SilverSeek

Or, here’s your snippet: “Butler writes: “The issue revolves around the 103 million ounces listed as being held for the I-Shares silver trust (SLV) by the trust’s custodian, JPMorgan, in New York and the 134 million ounces held in the JPMorgan Comex warehouse.

“This creates the unanswered question of whether the 103 million ounces held on behalf of SLV are also a big part of the 134 million ounces held in the JPM Comex warehouse or if the 103 million ounces are separate and distinct from the 134 million ounces in JPM’s Comex warehouse.

“This is a rather simple question that could be of significance.”

For if the inventories overlap, it would be more evidence of a silver shortage, as well as evidence of the official deception that long has surrounded the monetary metals.

So Butler has put the question to the chairmen of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. His report is headlined “An Answer Long Overdue”

I also know that the answer can be uncovered within a few minutes and a few phone calls, so this is not some heavy-duty investigation, involving a drain on S.E.C. or CFTC resources. I’ve also enlisted the aid of my local congressman, so an answer is just about guaranteed. Again, I’m not suggesting any type of deliberate under-handed activity here, just an issue that fell through regulatory jurisdictional cracks that needs to be clarified.”

Chuck again… Could this email that Ted Butler sent have anything to do with Silver’s big advance late last week?  I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see… But there’s smoke here folks… and when there’s smoke, there’s fire… At least that’s what I’ve been taught! 

Market Prices 11/20/2023: American Style: A$ .6551, kiwi .6025, C$ .7291, euro 1.0923, sterling 1.2466, Swiss $ 1.1314, European Style: rand 18.3961, krone 10.7393, SEK 10.4700, forint 347.40, zloty 3.9976, koruna 22.4610, RUB 88.46, yen 148.23, sing 1.3400, HKD 7.7942, INR 83.34, China 7.1675, peso 17.17, BRL 4.9094, BBDXY 1,241.25, Dollar Index 103.59, Oil $77.01, 10-year 4.47%, Silver $23.46, Platinum $901.00, Palladium $1,058.00, Copper $3.70, and Gold… $1,972.75

That’s it for today… This will be a very short week for Pfennigs! Tomorrow, I travel back home, so no Pfennig, and then Thursday is Thanksgiving, so definitely no Pfennig that day! So just today and Wednesday… So, what’s the deal with all the water problems we’ve had this year, first at our house, and now down here? Are we on the bad list? It sure feels that way, like if we didn’t have bad luck we wouldn’t have any luck at all!  (Junior Sample)  I kid, but it sure feels that way…  How about my beloved Mizzou Tigers!!!  They pulled a game out of the fire on Saturday, which was Senior Day at Mizzou… I was on the edge of my seat, and could hardly look to see if the winning field goal went through the uprights… My Tigers are now 9-2… And play their final regulars season game this weekend VS Arkansas, their border rival… Hopefully the team still has some hunger in them to win their 10^th game!  And our Blues got taken to the woodshed Saturday night… UGH!  The Ozark Mountain Daredevils take us to the finish line today with their song: If You Wanna Get To Heaven…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please oh please, Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals have strong rallied on Tuesday…
• The House agrees to kick the can down the road again…

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Real Quick here, this is just a reminder that there will be no Pfennig tomorrow! Ok, now that that’s out of the way, my beloved Mizzou Tigers were named the # 9 team in the College Playoffs Rankings!  That’s a long way from where they started the season, non ranked! YAHOO! I went to lunch in Port Salerno yesterday with some friends from down here… It was a fairly long drive, but well worth it to see everyone again! 3 years ago, I used to make that drive and even further to Port St. Lucie, 2 times a week, to visit the wound center there… I’m sure glad that’s all behind me now! The late, great, Leon Russell greets me this morning with his song: Back To The Island… 

Well, you can’t say that I didn’t tell you! On Monday this week, I told you that IF the STUPID CPI came in weaker, as it was expected to do, that it would be bad for the dollar, and good for Gold…  Well, rewind to yesterday, and the STUPID CPI came in weaker, and the dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair, and Gold & Silver rallied big time. on Tuesday…  The BBDXY lost 15 index points yesterday, and most likely has the PPT tuning up their horns to blow some intervention toward the markets today… Gold gained $16.90, and at one point yesterday it was much higher, but settled to close at $1,963.70… Silver gained 76-cents, and after flirting with falling below 22-cents, earlier this week, Silver closed yesterday at $23.16… 

The euro rallied BIG TIME on Tuesday, and ended the day at 1.0875!, all the other currencies followed the lead of the euro, with the star performers including the: pound sterling, Swiss franc, and even the Japanese yen saw some love for the fist time in a while…  These gains by the currencies were all a result of the dollar getting sold… It’s all about the dollar, and has been for some time now… 

The price of Oil remained in the $78 handle, and Bonds got bought in bunches on Tuesday…  So, here’s the skinny, on the bond buying… The markets are all saying that the “Fed is finished hiking rates”…  And that was celebrated by the bond boys, by marking up bond prices… The 10-year’s yield fell from 4.62% to 4.43%, which in bond moves is considered to be collossal!  And normally I would say that the only thing that moves bonds by that much is some bulk buying by the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel… But with all this euphoria in the markets about how the Fed Heads are finished hiking rates, I’m going to leave this move all to the markets… 

In the overnight markets last night…  The dollar got sold a little, cetainly not with the umph that it was sold during the day… The BBDXY has lost another index point overnight, with the euro pushing toward 1.09, this has got the inklings of a major PPT intervention to save the dollar… But as long as they remain on the sidelines, the currencies will contiue to gain VS the dollar…  Gold is up $9 to start the day today, and Silver is up 30-cents… So, some good gains from the metals to start the day today… I love it when a plan comes together! I just knew in my heart of hearts that 1. the BLS would show that inflation weakened, 2. that the markets would take that as a Fed isn’t hiking rates any more stance, 3. that the dollar would get punished for this stance, and 4. that Gold (& Silver) would rally strongly…    So, as Hannibal Smith of the A-Team used to say… “I love it when a plan comes together!” 

Speaking of a currency rally… The Chinese renminbi really rallied, overnight!  The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) was probably looking the other way, when the markets took the renminbi to a 7.24 handle… That move prompted the Singapore dollar to a higher level too… And the currencies in the rest of the Asian region all rallied… And that includes the Pan-Asian Aussie and kiwi dollars… 

The price of Oil slipped about 50-cents overnight and trades this morning with a $77 handle.  And thinking that the drop in yields was overdone, the bond boys adjusted the yields a bit higher in bonds, with the 10-year’s yield at 4.47% this morning… 

I thought I would stop here and give you the skinny on the STUPID CPI yesterday… First of all… On a monthly basis, prices increased were unchanged following a 0.4% rise the previous month.  The euphoria came from the result of annualized CPI, which fell to 3.2%…  So, the drop in the STUPID CPI was due to lower gas prices… And apparently they were so low that they more than made up for the gains in inflation from: Food, Insurance, and Health Costs…  So, here’s my take on the whole shootin’ match… According to www.shadowstats.com  if we calculate inflation without the hedonic adjustments, like we did before 1990, CPI would be 7.9%…  More than double the 3.2%, the BS, I mean the BLS would have you believe is real inflation…  As if! I didn’t just fall off of a turnip truck last night! I don’t believe the BLS’s CPI, and the markets should know better, but they apparently don’t! 

The other thing that I read from the markets, is that they don’t believe the Fed Heads will be cutting rates any time soon… But you can see the gears in their heads grinding right now… if the the Fed Heads are finished hiking rates, then their next move will be down… And that’s what the markets are hanging their hats on right now…  I won’t complain too much as long as Gold continues to get some love becuase rates are going higher! 

Here’s Dave Gonigam from his 5 Bullet Points newsletter yesterday: “Some of the internals of the report are laughable. Food at home up only 2.1% year-over-year? Yeah, maybe if you cut back on meat and got more of your protein from lentils. (Believe it or not, the statisticians monkey with the numbers exactly this way; they call it “the substitution effect”)  

Chuck again, see? even Dave sees the STUPID CPI print for what it is… worthless! 

Well the news this morning is that the House agreed on a spending bill that would be an exension, to avert a Gov’t shutdown… We all knew this would happen, with the only surprise here is that it was done a day early, and not at the 11^th hour…  This extension will now go to the Senate, and then to the POTUS for his signature… So, mark your calendars, for February 2nd… That’ll be our next day of default…  Kicking the can down the road… I need to write a song with that title… I’ll get working on that when I get home… 

I was looking at the components of the BBDXY Index the other day, and noticed a change in the makeup… The Singapore dollar was added to the list of currencies that make up the index… That brings the total of currencies that make up the BBDXY index to 12…  do you want to know what they are? I’m sure you do! … Ok, here’s the list: euro, sterling, yen, C$, peso, renminbi, francs, A$’s, S.K. won, rupee, sing, and Taiwan dollar…  I’m sure you’ve been wondering what those were for a long time, since I began using the index instead of the dollar index, since the dollar index is so heavily weighted with euros… So, congrats Singapore dollar, you make the club! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday was the spring board to the dollar selling with the Stupid CPI… and today we get the wholesale inflation index, PPI… Should show that the pipeline inflation isn’t going away… We’ll also see Retail Sales for Rocktober…  I have something for you in the FWIW section today, with regards to Retail Sales…  It’ll be interesting to see just how disappointing the report will be…  I’m just saying…

To recap… The STUPID CPI sent the markets reeling yesterday, as it showed that the propeller heads at BS, I mean BLS, showed inflation, on an annual basis, had weakened, never mind that on a month to month basis it remained the same, and that was with a revision higher in September’s number!   Nevertheless, the dollar got sold on a new markets stance that the Fed is finished with rate hikes, Gold & Silver romped on the day, and the euro traded well into the 1.08 figure!   The House agreed on a spending extension to avert a government shutdown… Whoopee! As if we didn’t think they would!   

For What It’s Worth… Well there’s a new sheriff in town, so where’s bad Bart?  That’s what I wanted to think when I read this article in Ed Steer’s letter www.edsteergoldsilver.com  And it’s about a new system that will track consumer spending, and it can be found here: Consumer spending fell in October, according to new CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor tracking card transactions

Or, here’s your snippet: “The consumer took a spending break ahead of the holiday season, with October retail sales, excluding autos and gas, falling by 0.08%, and core retail, which also removes restaurants, declining by 0.03%, according to the new CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.

The new Retail Monitor, debuting Monday, is a joint product of CNBC and the National Retail Federation based on data from Affinity Solutions, a leading consumer purchase insights company. The data is sourced from more than 9 billion annual credit and debit card transactions collected and anonymized by Affinity and accounting for more than $500 billion in sales. The cards are issued by more than 1,400 financial institutions.

The data differs from the Census Bureau’s retail sales report as it is the result of actual consumer purchases, while the Census relies on survey data. The government data is frequently revised as additional survey data becomes available. The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor is not revised as it’s calculated from actual transactions during the month. It is, however, seasonally adjusted, using the same program employed by Census.

“Our audience, investors and executives alike, will now be armed with dynamic insights that go beyond headline numbers to show emerging trends and critical detail,” CNBC Senior Vice President of Business News Dan Colarusso said.

Chuck again… Well, I’m all for technology that brings us data faster and correctly… And this report said that consumers took a break in spending in Rocktober…  I guess we’ll see if it plays out like that when Retail Sales will print this morning for Rocktober…  As I said on Monday, the BHI tells me that this report should be disappointing… 

Market Prices 11/15/2023: American Style: A$.6527, kiwi .6047, C$ .7309, euro 1.0862, sterling 1.2473, Swiss $1.1277, European Style: rand 18.1395, krone 10.8228, SEK 10.5422, forint 346.70, zloty 4.0460, koruna 22.5582, RUB 89.26, yen 150.32, sing 1.3415, HKD 7.8013, INR 83.14, China 7.2418, peso 17.30, BRL 4.8637, BBDXY 1,248.06, Dollar Index 104.13, Oil $77.82, 10-year 4.47%, Silver $23.46, Platinum $895.00, Palladium $1,041.00, Copper $3.67, and Gold… $1,972.41

That’s it for today, and this week… There are storms that moved through the area yesterday, and the ocean is really angry! The surf is up BIG TIME, and probably causing beach erosion… I guess we’ll find out when the storms clear out which won’t be until Friday! My wife and I keep the local TV station app on our phones, so we can check out what’s going on here while we’re back home… I think when I get back home tomorrow, I’ll have one more day of hammering and sawing to get through, and then our house will be back together!  Just in time for Thanksgiving, which will be at our house next week… When I left St. Louis it was chilly, then it warmed up while I was gone, and now it’s going back to being chilly… UGH!  I would stay here, except there’s Thanksgiving next week…  My beloved Mizzou Tigers take on the Florida Gators on Saturday… I’m worried about this game… After Mizzou’s big win last Saturday, I hope they still have the killer instinct in them! The Cure takes us to the finish line today with their song: Just Like Heaven…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today… And please, oh please remember to: Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

• currencies & metals try to rally on Monday
• Germany’s economy appears to have bottomed out…

Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, the rain has moved into S. Florida… It rained off and on all day yesterday, and the forecast for the next 3 days are nothing but rain filled…  Usually, that means the trip gets very expensive for me, for when it rains, my wife goes shopping!   So, I guess we’ll see… I can’t, and won’t complain, as the first 8 days I was down here, it was absolutely beautiful!  Well, how’s your NFL team doing at the half-way mark of the season? We no longer have a team in St. Louis, so I’ve adopted the K.C. Chiefs, since K.C. is in the state of Missouri!  And the Chiefs were on bye this last week… UGH!  Our Blues get back on the ice tonight VS Tampa Bay… There’s not a lot to talk about today, so I’ll get going on that… Little Feat greets me this morning with their rock classic song: Dixie Chicken…   

Well, Yesterday, we started the week in the morning, with Gold & Silver down, and the dollar flat… We ended the day with the dollar down 2 index points in the BBDXY index, the euro trading withing spittin’ distance of 1.07, at 1.0698, and Gold having rallied with some short covering to show a $7.10 gain on the day, and end up at $1,946.80… Silver was the star of the day, but you wouldn’t know it if you just looked at their closing price, which showed a 3-cent gain, to $22.40… At one point yesterday, Silver was dow 61-cents! So, it took a major rally to get them back to positive territory for the day! 

The price of Oil gained another buck yesterday to add to its $2 gain overnight, and so it ended the day trading with a $78 handle…  And bond traders are waiting for the STUPID CPI to get a read on the direction of the Fed heads with regards to interest rates. The 10-year’s yield remained at 4.64% yesterday… 

Here’s how Kitco.com described yesterday’s price action in Gold: ” Gold prices are moderately higher near midday Monday, on some short covering by the shorter-term futures traders and some perceived bargain hunting after recent selling pressure.” – Kitco.com

I didn’t read anything about why the dollar got sold yesterday, but since the selling only represented 2 index points in the BBDXY, I understand why… It just wasn’t a big deal…  I do think that the dollar traders were also on wait… Just like the bond boys… But what if the STUPID CPI is a non-event? Nah, that can’t happen Chuck, because that wouldn’t show what a great trumped-up job the Fed Heads are doing, and the Gov’t can’t have that! 

In the overnight markets last night…  There was little to no movement in the dollar once again… These traders sure have been spooked by the STUPID CPI that will pint about the same time you get this letter this morning…  I read this morning that yen traders are bracing for more rot on the vine for yen, as they are expected a stronger than expected CPI… Just shows to go ya that these yen traders are whacky dudes!   Ok, getting back to the overnight markets… Gold is flat to down a buck this morning, and Silver is down a plug nickel… So, even the precious metals traders are waiting on the STUPID CPI!  I find this to be a real shame that the markets are so enchanted with the STUPID CPI… How could these highly educated people fall for that hedonically adjusted piece of you know what?  This is where I scratch my bald head and wonder what the answer to that question is… I don’t think I’ll come up with an answer to that any time soon… 

The price of Oil remains trading with a $78 handle this morning, and the 10-year’s yield dipped to 4.62% overnight…  I wonder what the stock jockeys will do IF, the STUPID CPI does come in higher, and the threat of more rate hikes comes back?  Might be a good time to sit on the sidelines, eh? 

Well, I have some BIG NEWS that I’ll be sharing with you dear Pfennig Readers in the near future… I can’t say any more about it at this time, but when I do, I think you’ll be quite happy, as I know I will be! 

So… with that out of the way… Let’s get to some of the stories going around about the dollar, Gold, bonds, economies, etc. OK?  

Here’s some more info on Treasuries that should get you out to buy more Gold… This is from Dan Denning’s Twitter account, “You hear that sound?

Brrrrrrrp.

It’s the sound of the Fed’s money printer warming up. $15 trillion in US debt matures and must be refinanced in the next four years. It’s $20 trillion over the next ten.” -Dan Denning on Twitter

Again, and I don’t mean to beat a dead horse (there were no animals hurt here!) but who’s going to buy those bonds, and if they do step up to buy them at what yield will the be issued at?   First, I really don’t think the U.S. has the allies to buy all that debt…. That means the Primary Banks will have to take up the slack, but what if they tell the Fed heads and Treasury, “no mas!”  Well, that means the the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel will have to print dollars and buy the bonds for their balance sheet, which was supposed to be drained by then….  So, when at the end of Dan Denning’s Twitter feed he says: “out to buy more Gold”… He’s got the answer to all this dollar printing… and bond buying… and self-dealing… demonetizing debt…  and it’s all about having enough Gold! 

Well, you know what happens this coming Friday, right? Well, that’s out next day of default, that won’t happen… At least for now… 1440 reports that: “House Speaker Mike Johnson (R, LA-4) unveils plan to avoid government shutdown ahead of Friday night deadline; proposal would split federal agencies into two groups, provide separate short-term extensions for each.”

Chuck again… see? I told you last week that this is what it would come to… extensions, just keep kicking the can down the road… What else would you expect from these knuckleheads? That’s all they’ve done (kick the can down the road) for decades now… And quite frankly, they’ve gotten good at it… And that’s a bad thing! 

And overseas this morning, it was reported that the ZEW (think tank) investor confidence report in Germany bet the expectations by a wide margin (5 was expected, reported at 9), which could mean that the German economy has bottomed out, and is on the way to mending… That could be why the euro has popped up over 1.07 this morning… These think tank reports used to really move the euro when they printed, so it is nice to see something coming back… I’m just saying… 

The U.S. data Cupboard started the week yesterday with nothing to show us… But today’s Cupboard will have the STUPID CPI print for Rocktober… The forecast for the data which is hedonically adjusted, is for it to remain at 4.1%…  now you and I know that that our personal inflation is higher than 4.1%, so why try and pass this fraudulent number off on the masses? Because the “masses” don’t read the Pfennig, although they should, and don’t know about how the BLS massages, cooks, and adjusts the CPI data each month… 

The markets are wishin’ and hopin’ and thinkin’ and prayin’ (Dusty Springfield) that CPI shows weaker inflation, so they can get back on their “the fed will pivot soon horse” That would be good for stocks… And… it would be good for Gold… but then that’s just a small effect, that won’t be noticeable if the markets get their wish… 

To recap… The dollar was sold a little yesterday, but too much, as no one wants to make a call on the STUPID CPI that will print this morning… Gold gained a bit on Monday, and Silver make a comeback rally for the ages!  Lots and lots, which really doesn’t describe the amount of debt that is coming due in the next few years, and will have to be rolled at higher yields, and there’s also the question of who will buy the bonds?  Oh brother!  I just keep thinking about Dick Cheney saying, “Deficits don’t matter”…  Well, in a way, if the deficit is paid off the following year, then they don’t matter, but that’s not what was happening and look where we are now! 

For What It’s Worth… I found this article yesterday, and while it doesn’t spell gloom, despair or agony, it does point to something if, it continues would be very bad for banks… And it can be found here: $174,303,000,000 in Deposit Flight Hits US Banks in Three Months As S&P Global Declares Banking Industry Is ‘Gradually Shrinking’ – The Daily Hodl

Or, here’s your snippet: “New numbers are shedding light on the multi billion-dollar flow of capital out of the US banking system.

In a new report, S&P Global says total non-brokered deposits, or funds coming mostly from retail customers, recorded their sixth consecutive quarterly decline in Q3 of this year.

The market intelligence firm says non-brokered deposits dropped from $17.430 trillion in Q2 to $17.256 trillion in Q3, representing a decrease of $174.303 billion. Specifically, S&P Global says Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase saw at least a 2% quarterly decline.

Deposits across the commercial banking industry are down about $947 billion dollars from an all-time high of $18.203 trillion set in April of 2022.

To make up for the deposit outflows, the data intelligence firm says the industry is beginning to rely more on wholesale funding, which involves brokered deposits from large financial institutions.

Banks are also depending on loans and leases to shore up their balance sheet.

The shift in strategy comes as the total assets held across the industry continue to drop.

“That transformation is taking place as the industry gradually shrinks. Total assets for US commercial banks, savings banks and savings and loan associations were $23.406 trillion at Sept. 30, representing a 0.2% decline from June 30 and a 2.4% decrease since the all-time peak at March 31, 2022.”

Chuck again… if I may suggest another reason for this drop in deposits at banks… And that is that all the stimmie Checks that were deposited have been spent, and then some…  I’m just saying… 

Market Prices 11/14/2023: American Style: A$.6370, kiwi .5868, C$ .7228, euro 1.0719, sterling 1.2285, Swiss $1.1084, European Style: rand 18.7378, krone 11.1593, SEK 10.8414, forint 351.70, zloty 4.1260, koruna 22.9068, RUB 90.84, yen 151.73, sing 1.3613, HKD 7.8101, INR 83.33, China 7.2894, peso 17.57, BRL 4.9103, BBDXY 1,264.63, Dollar Index 105.55, Oil $78.36, 10-year 4.62%, Silver $22.35, Platinum $870.00, Palladium $975.00, Copper $3.65, and Gold… $1,945.57

That’s it for today… I tried to remain awake to watch the Monday Night Football game last night but didn’t make it even to half time! Man do I recall the 70’s when MNF was HUGE! We went to bars to watch the games and stayed until the end! There were BIG parties surrounding MNF back in the day…  Now? I can’t even make it to half time! UGH!  My beloved Mizzou Tigers played a basketball game last night that for that too, I couldn’t stay awake for! double UGH! So, I checked this morning, and they won! Just 3 more days down here, and then I go home UGH! Got an update on grandson Everett’s recovery… His surgery went well, and he’s on the road to recovery… Tough little guy!  The Guess Who takes us to the finish line today with their song: No Time…  (a great song!) I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler