April 13, 2023
* Currencies & metals rally on Wednesday & overnight!
* Spend, Spend, Spend… The Deficit just keeps growing!
Good Dayl… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! A modest 2-game win streak brings the Cardinals home to play the Pirates this weekend… Downtown St.Louis will be hoppin’ with a Cardinals game and a City STL SC soccer game going on… Parking will be crazy! I’ll have Kathy drop me and ALex off and then we’ll catch an Uber after the game… So, no partking problems for me! Another picture perfect, Chamber of Commerce day here yesterday, so I fired up the outside TV, and a couple of my friends came by to watch the game with me, it was good to see good friend Mike againn, for I hadn’t seen him since December before i left for the winter! Golden Earring greets me this morning with their mega hit song: Radar Love…
Well, Wednesday was not a wonderful day for the dollar… The BBDXY lost 5 index points yesterday! on a day that should have been good for the dollar, the opposites trading kicked in, and the dollar got sold instead. The euro ended the day within spittin’ distace of 1.10! Gold pushed higher during the day yesterday, gaining $11 to close the day at $2,025.70.. And Silver pushed higher even more (percentage wise), gaining 44-cents on the day, to close firmly above $25 at $25.50… I was reading an article yesterday about how the writer thinks that the next test for Gold is to close out the month above $2,000, which it has never done, but if that were to happen, the writer thinks that Gold won’t be visiting sub-$2,000 again any time soon….. I thought that that idea played nicely in the sand box with my idea that once Gold closed above $2,000 it would be off to the races, and not be looking back…
Speaking of opposites doing Gold a favor yesterday, Brian Lundein of the Gold Newsletter and the head of the New Orleans Investment Conference (The grandaddy of all conferences) had this to say in his weekly newsletter yesterday: “While I may roll my eyes at the dynamic that sends gold higher on higher inflation readings and tighter credit conditions, I won’t argue too vociferously against it. Because not only does that crazy logic send gold higher, but it also supports my prediction that the Fed will have to pause without getting inflation anywhere near its 2% goal.
As I noted in my Money Morning Live segment today, you couldn’t have written a better script for gold. Not only will the Fed be forced to halt its rate hikes with inflation remaining persistently high, but the Saudi-led oil production cuts beginning next month will pressure inflation higher.
It’s going to be a great time to be positioned in gold, silver”
Chuck again…. Of course, the wolf is always at the door with Gold & Silver… The price manipulators lurk in the dark alleys, wating for the right time to take down the metals… I’m hoping that they have seen the light, that they are doing nothing but giving Russia and China buying opportunities that the U.S. sure doesn’t take advantage of!
The price of Oil bumped higher by $2 again on Wednesdsy, ending the day trading with an $83.00 handle… Damn the lack of demand, eh? And the 10-year’s yield saw some downard movement, and buying of the bond will do, and it ended the day at 3.40%…
In The overnight markets last night…. There was some follow up of the dollar selling, and this morning the BBDXY has lost 2 more index points to trade 1, 220… Gold is up a whopping $29 in the early trading today, and is looking forward, taking no prisoners, today… Silver is up 33-cents this morning, so, unless the price manipulaters get their panties all bunched up and decide to enter the market, this is going to be a good day for the anti-dollar asset classes… The price of Oil slipped a buck overnight, and trades this morning with a $82 handle… And the 10-year just keeps getting bought, as its yield has dropped to 3.38%…
The best performing currencies ovenight include the A$, kiwi, BRL, forints, euros, and Swiss francs… with the Swiss Franc the winner, winner chicken dinner! You know, I did point out to you some weeks ago that the Hungarian forint was moving in the right direction, I’m just saying…
The Pfennig is a little later this morning, as I just couldn’t answer the bell! But something inside of me has changed… I don’t feel guilty any longer when I oversleep… I guess that means my mind and body has finally admitted that I’m retired!
The Fed’s/ Cabal’s/ Cartel’s Meeting Minutes yesterday reall upset the stock jockeys… These guys were looking for signs in the minutes that would tell them that the FOMC is ready to pause at the next meeting in May… But that wasn’t to be.. instead, the FOCM minutes outlined a mild recession that they see coming, and that inflation is not going away, so another rate hike is believed to be in the cards… Just how much of rate hike will there be? The pundits that follow the Fed Heads say thqt 25 Basis Points will be the hike in May… But I’m not a regular pundit, here, and I think if would behoove the FOMC to hike 50 Basis Points, and then they could say that in June they will look at it again to see if a pause is needed… Rather than hiking 25 Basis points in May, and then again in June, just go the 50 Basis Points in May! And if you feel the need to hike more in June, so be it, but most likely things in the economy and stock market will be in shambles by then, and you’ll want to pause in June… I’m just saying…
Well, leave it up to the French…. I’m not stereotyping anyone here, just a saying… OK? Alright now that we’ve extablished that, what is it that you’re talking about here Chuck? Chinese leader, Xi, and French leader, Macron, met last week, and Marcron didn’t endear himself to anyone in Washington D.C. with his comments. He later backtracked those comments to make them sound like he was misquoted, and that he supports the U.S. Ok, so in my strange mind, here’s the phone call Macron received from an anyonmous called from Washington D.C. …. “Hello? Yes, it’s me, Presdient Macron, who is this calling? Don’t worry about who I am, Macron, just know that I am your worst nightmare! You know those words you spoke about the U.S.? Well, if you don’t backtrack those words, we’ll freeze all French assets in the U.S.,and throw you out of SWIFT, just like we did to Russia… Got it? Oui, oui, I’ve got it, and just so you know, I was misquoted… I don’t care… just do as I ordered or France will be in a bind… . hang up….
Speaking of worst nightmares… The federal budget deficit reached $1.1 trillion in the first six months of fiscal 2023, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated in a report released Monday…. That’s way ahead of last year’s Budget Deficit, so that means this year could be a record year deficit… Of course, the Budget deficits get rolled into the National Debt, that’s already $31.6 Trillion! Spend, spend, spend, and worry about paying for your expenditures later, and then kicking the can down the street.. This game has been played for far too long… And one day, Alice…. I’m just saying…
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the above mentioned FOMC meeting minutes, but the thing that got everyone riled up was the printing of the stupid CPI… Ok, it pains me to report this data, but the markets still genuflut in its presence… So, month to month inflation increased .1%… but annually it fell to 5%… Core CPI annually rose to 5.6%… So, confused? Yeah, I know, me too… These reports have been through the gauntlet, and when they come out, they make no sense whatsoever!
Just know that inflation is sticky, will remain sticky, and if the FOMC decides to pause their rate hikes, inflation will get evern stickier! And never reach the Fed head’s goal of 2% inflation… So much for their credibility… I have something on that (fed Credibility in the FWIW section today, you won’t want ot have missed that!)
Today’s Cupboard has the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and in addtion to that, we’ll also see the color of the March PPI (wholesale inflation)… Remember we see rising inflation here, first…
To recap… The dollar got sold yesterday, and the BBDXY lost 5 index ponts on the day… The euro is within spittin’ distance of 1.10, and Gold gained $11 while Silver gained 44-cents! it was truly another day of opposites in the markets, but that’s how they work these days, and so we just have to roll with it… Chuck plays a game with a phone call to Frence Leader Macron… It’s how he sees it happened!
Or, here’s your snippet: “A Growing Lack of Confidence in the Fed Is Spilling Over into a Lack of Confidence in U.S. Banks
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 5, 2023
Millions of Americans are beginning to ask themselves this question: Is the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) a competent central bank or a terminally compromised regulator that simply does the bidding of Wall Street’s mega banks to the peril of average Americans and the U.S. economy? Millions of other Americans have already made up their minds on this point.
These persistent doubts about an institution with an $8.8 trillion balance sheet – that is backstopped by the U.S. taxpayer – is very bad for confidence in the U.S. banking system, especially when the Fed pivots from one banking bailout to the next. (What was the size of the Fed’s balance sheet prior to its serial bailouts? On December 26, 2007, the Fed’s balance sheet stood at $929 billion. It has soared by 847 percent in just over 15 years of serial bailouts.)
Let’s look at the evidence that’s been stacking up against the Fed since the financial crisis of 2008 – the worst economic collapse in America since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
In response to the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed introduced a hodge podge of emergency lending programs to Wall Street’s biggest banks, as well as cranking out its traditional discount window loans. While the Fed released general details of what the programs were created to do, it did not release the names of the Wall Street firms that were doing the bulk of the borrowing, or the sums borrowed by each institution.
A tenacious investigative reporter at Bloomberg News, the late Mark Pittman, filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request with the Fed for the names of the banks, the amounts borrowed and the terms. Under the law, the Fed had to respond in 20 business days. The Fed stalled Pittman for six months, leading to the parent of Bloomberg News, Bloomberg LP, filing a lawsuit against the Fed in the Federal District Court in Manhattan in November 2008. Bloomberg won that suit. The Fed then appealed the decision to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. A large number of other mainstream media outlets and groups filed an Amicus brief in the matter, in support of the release of the information.
The Fed also lost at the Second Circuit. The Fed was, apparently, too embarrassed to take the case to the U.S. Supreme Court, because President Obama’s acting Solicitor General, Neal Katyal, planned to file a brief contrary to the Fed’s position, so a group called The Clearing House Association LLC, made up of some of the very same Wall Street banks that were being bailed out by the Fed, filed their own appeal with the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court declined to hear the case in March of 2011, leaving the decision of the Second Circuit standing.
The financial reform legislation known as the Dodd-Frank Act (which was signed into law by President Obama on July 21, 2010) had forced the Fed to release the transaction details of its seven emergency lending facilities in December of 2010. When the Supreme Court declined to hear the court case, the Fed finally released the discount window transactions in March 2011.”
Chuck Again….The article gives many more examples of how the Fed Heads have ruined their credibility, so if you want to know them all, click the link above, and read away!
Market Prices 4/13/2023: American Style: A$ 6753, kiwi 6271, C$ .7468, euro 1.1034, sterling 1.2521, Swiss $1.1254, European Style: rand 18.1068, krone 10.3774, SEK 10.3001, forint 339.25, zloty 4.2004,
koruna 21.0992, RUB 81.77, yen 132.67, sing 1.3233, HKD 7.8500, INR 81.85, China 6.8753, peso 18.09, BRL 4.9314, BBDXY 1,220.98, Dollar Index 101.14, Oil $82.90, 10-year 3.38%, Silver $25.91, Platinum $1,004.00, Palladium $1,550.00, Copper $4.09, and Gold… $2,045.10
That’s it for today and this week… Next week is chock-full-o-doctor appts, so I have that going for me! I’ll let you know my schedule for the Pfennig on Monday… I think now that only Thursday’s letter will not be sent as I know for sure I’ll be at the hospital for a check up… no scan, at least not now… I’m still leery of those scan machines even though I know they didn’t cause my anaphalaxis shock back in December… I just have bad memorie of that day in the scanner, when I had to start banging on it and yelling for them to get me out of there, that something was wrong… And something was wrong indeed! When I see my oncologist next week, I’m sure she will want to get me scheduled for a new scan… UGH! Well, same gig as last year when I came home from my winter home… I had gained 20 lbs last year, and I gained 20 lbs again this year! Too much of the good life I guess, eh? Now I have to be diligent and get those gained lbs off! The Marshall Tucker Band take us to the finsih line today with their great 70’s song: 24 Hours At A Time…. I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and all the while keep Being Good To Yourself!