November 1, 2018
*Currencies finally break the dollar’s spell over them!
* Gold reverses yesterday’s selloff…
Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Welcome to November… I despise this month, so we’ll start out like that today! This was the day, when I was a young lad that I used to wish I went to the private Catholic School, instead of the public school, because today was a Catholic holiday! And still being somewhat sugar high hungover from the night before, I would trudge into school… I almost called this in today, saying that I was Catholic and it was a holiday for me! Funny thing, I was raised Catholic, went to church each Sunday, bought pretzels from the guy outside the church, and so on… But that’s as far as it went with me… I was actually baptized in a Baptist Church… go figure on that one! So, I hope your Halloween was great, and that you heard lots of good jokes! Elvin Bishop greets me this morning with his song: Traveling Shoes…
Another day, another day of the dollar pushing the currencies and metals downward… I’m almost resigned to think about how badly the currencies look, each day instead of thinking about how much they may have gained in the overnight markets… The overnight markets have been non-existent recently, And then last night… Boom! They mattered again! Before last night’s move, I was thinking that I would write most of the letter the night before, then wake up later, and add in any extras and send it out… But I know what would happen if I actually did that… Over time I would not even get up in the morning to write anything, I would just spool it up the night before and be done with it! And… at this point, I have no idea why we’re even talking about that!
So… I didn’t get much feedback from my attack on the Fed yesterday from dear readers, I guess they all agree with me! HA! But good friend, and the Retirementor, Dennis Miller of www.milleronthemoney.com sent me some quotes from an article on Rand Paul, and his desire to audit the Fed… here are a couple of quotes from that article… “Probably one of the more startling things is the Fed will say that they are already audited, and that is kind of disingenuous, is the best way you can put it. The GAO auditor was before a House committee a few years ago, and they say, “Well, you’re the auditor and you perform the audit,” and she said yes, and they said, “Well, what does the Fed own? They have $4.5 trillion of assets — what are these assets?” and they said, “Oh, we don’t audit that.” It is like, what do you audit, how much coffee they purchased, what their salaries are, their expenses? It is kind of ridiculous and really unfair to say they are audited, when an audit would be what are your activities, what do you buy and sell, and what are they really worth?
Because I think for the confidence of the nation, we would want to know what their assets are worth, are they marked-to-market, who did they buy them from, what did they pay for them.” – Rand Paul
I just shake my head and wonder how in the hell we got here? This Fed was supposed to be the end all that ails the U.S. economy, but have they even come close to realizing that goal? Since they’ve been around (1913) we’ve seen dozens of recessions, a Great Depression, and a Great Recession, along with a financial meltdown… Boy, they’ve sure done their jobs there, eh? I’m just saying…
Well, I hear that not only is today November 1st, the beginning of my least fave month, and also my former colleague, Our Little Christine’s, least fave month too… But today is also National Toothbrushing Day… When I was a young man, I didn’t take good care of my teeth, shoot I even played football without a mouth guard! But as a young adult, I met a dentist who got me straightened out, and I’ve been admant about tooth health ever since! And now I’m so lucky to have the wonderful dentist, Holly Ellis, as my dentist… How lucky is that?
But today is the beginning of month that has historically been the worst month every year of my life… Need I remind everyone that last November, I was stricken with an awful infection, that put me having to use a walker, and eventually have to have surgery, to clean out the infection… I was in tremendous pain for a long time, and it lasted the whole month of November… Besides that there are numerous other bad things that have happened in November, not to mention the cold, raw, steel gray days that just jab at you… Well, this year, I’m heading to S. Florida for most of November… Hopefully, when I return spirits will have changed to Christmas cheer…
The Dollar Index bumped up over the 97 figure on Tuesday, but in the past 24 hours it has retreated to 96.65… One of the currencies that is NOT a part of the Dollar Index, the Aussie dollar (A$) finally climbed above 71-cents on the night. The A$ has attempted to move higher for a few weeks now, but always seemed to be “not worthy”…
And one currency that IS a part of the dollar index, The Swedish krona, had some news so let’s go there… Well, how about that reversal, about face, and whatever other term you want to use to describe what Sweden has done regarding their previous move to remove cash… Here’s what’s going on… The Swedish government and its central bank, Riksbank, have been pushing for a “cashless society” for years, and many of Sweden’s bank branches have stopped handling cash altogether. However, Sweden’s central bankers now want to reverse their policy and have proposed making it mandatory for all banks and financial institutions to offer cash services so that it does not disappear as a form of payment. Financial companies and businesses that have converted out of cash may also be obligated to trade in cash.
I’m so glad to have read this… I was really beginning to believe that Sweden was going to not only be the poster child for negative interest rates, but also a cashless society… And that would have stricken them from my list of fave countries for sure! They’re teetering on getting bounced from the list with their negative interest rate Policy (NIRP) (remember ZIRP? Zero interest rate policy) . But I read this past weekend that there are whispers that the NIRP hasn’t worked the way the Swiss leaders thought it would, and they are looking to drop NIRP soon… Hmmm… Now, wouldn’t that be a different barrel of fish?
The Price of Oil slipped downward again in the past 24 hours, and trades with a $64 handle this morning… Gold got whacked by nearly $9 yesterday, but is up nearly $9 in the early morning trading today, so that’s a wash… I read so much regarding Gold that I get confused over if I’ve talked about it or not… So, to keep me from being confused today, let’s just move along to the U.S. Data Cupboard…
The U.S. Data Cupboard is gearing up for tomorrow’s BIG Jobs Jamboree, and yesterday’s attempt to prime the markets for a big number, was the ADP Employment Report, which showed 227,000 jobs created in Rocktober, with the Employment Cost Index (ECI) moving higher, as expected, and the Chicago region manufacturing pulse slipping…
Today’s Data Cupboard has more data to sift through, with the likes of the stupid Productivity level, U.S. Vehicle Sales, and the ISM manufacturing index… So, all middle tier data prints, that unless there’s a rogue print in there, the markets will move along not noticing them… I say that, knowing all too well, that sometimes, the markets get a wild hair, and decide something WAS important…
For What it’s Worth… Yesterday, I went on a rant about the Fed… And today, well, it’s Ron Paul’s turn! I found this at: https://www.lewrockwell.com/2018/10/ron-paul/trump-is-right-the-fed-is-crazy/
And he thinks the Fed is crazy… Hmmm… he said it, not me!
Or, here’s your snippet: “The very act of creating money and manipulating interest rates distorts the market. Therefore, the Federal Reserve System cannot be fixed with a “rules-based” monetary policy or even with “tying” the Fed-created money supply to the price of gold. It is amazing how many economists who oppose price controls on all other goods support allowing a secretive central bank to control the price of money.
Trusting the Federal Reserve to produce permanent prosperity instead of a boom-and-bust cycle is a textbook example of a popular definition of insanity being repeating the same action in hope of getting different results. The Federal Reserve System is as unworkable and doomed to failure as every other form of central planning.
It is likely that the next Fed-created recession will come sooner rather than later. This could be the major catastrophe that leads to the end of fiat currency. The only way to avoid crisis is to force Congress to end our monetary madness. The first steps are passing the Audit the Fed bill, allowing people to use alternative currencies, and exempting all transactions in precious metals and cryptocurrencies from capital gains taxes and other taxes.”
Chuck again… Another point I would like to make regarding the Fed, is that I’m a firm believer that we as a country and our economy would be better off without them! I say, let the bond markets set interest rates, and count the beans the way they were supposed to be counted for inflation…
Currencies today 11/1/18.. American Style: A$.7155, kiwi .6610, C$ .7627, euro 1.1380, sterling 1.2880, Swiss $1.0031, European Style: rand 14.5475, krone 8.3662, SEK 9.0530, forint 284.12, zloty 3.8017, koruna 22.7370, RUB 65.69, yen 112.95, sing 1.3805, HKD 7.8377, INR 73.23, China 6.9694, peso 20.16, peso 3.7056, Dollar Index 96.65, Oil $64.85, 10-year 3.16%, Silver $14.41, Platinum $848.70, Palladium $1,078.90, and Gold… $1,223.54
That’s it for today… And this week… My next correspondence with you will be transmitted from my winter home… Just a 3 week trip this time, to make sure work is getting completed on time! I didn’t hear any good jokes last night, and I only had about 25-30 kids show up to Trick-or-Treat. I told Kathy, “see I told you we had enough candy for me to sneak some early”… Dawn brought Delaney Grace and brother Everett, in their Halloween costumes by early yesterday… My little d, is growing up, I’m not sure I’m ready for that! Sorry for all the directions in the Pfennig today, I’m still dealing with a sugar hangover! HA! OK, this is my weekly plead to the Cardinals to sign Bryce Harper… Surely someone in the Cardinals office reads the Pfennig, and can let the GM know that I want them to sign Bryce Harper! HAHAHAHA! And with that, Journey takes us to the finish line today with their song: Girl Can’t Help It… (one of my fave Journey songs)… I hope you can go out and make this a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, and remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler