Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 744,000!

April 8, 2021

* Currencies are back on the rally tracks this morning… 

* Gold & Silver recover nicely and head north! 

Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! My beloved Cardinals got out their brooms yesterday as they swept the Marlins in a 3 game set… A HUGE home run by long time fan fave, Yadier Molina was the margin of victory… Today is the Home Opener… That is if the rain allows it to be! I saw rain yesterday for the first time in over a month! And it’s coming back today just for good measure. The rain has pushed back the schedule that our pool deck will be finished, but that’s no biggie, as we have the whole month of April left to get that done.  Our Blues  ended their losing streak at 7 games, with a 3-1 win last night… It’s finally time they won a game!        Radiohead greets me this morning with their song: Karma Police…

The old saying that I coined many years ago is that A Trend, is not a one-way street…  And that’s what we saw yesterday, as there had to be some profit taking and a bit of selling short, on the day, as the euro, the Big Dog, lost about 1/3rd -cent. The Dollar Index gained on the day from 92.22 in the morning to 92.44 at the end of the day.  Gold found a way to rally during the day, and had erased its $8 loss in the early trading, but then to close out the day, a flurry of short gold paper trades hit the market, and Gold ended up losing $6.00 on the day… Silver didn’t see a flurry of short Silver paper trades and it ended up only losing a nickel… Which was far better than in the early trading when Silver was down 26-cents… 

In The overnight markets… The dollar was back to getting sold overnight, as the euro, the Big Dog, climbed back to 1.1880, and the Dollar Index dropped back to 92.26…  Gold is back on the rally tracks this morning, with the shiny metal up $9.90 in the early trading, and Silver is kicking some tail up 25-cents this morning.  If these gains in the currencies and metals hold throughout the day, then it will confirm to me in my mind that yesterday’s trading was simply profit taking… 

Well… I had a dear reader ask me what was the problem with the vaccine passport?  I didn’t respond to him because… If you have to have your freedom of movement limited explained, then I’m at a loss to explain it any different than I did yesterday….   

Today is the day that my interview with Dennis Miller of milleronthemoney.com gets printed, and posted to his website…  I’m going to use some of that letter as my FWIW article today…  In the meantime, publishing guru, and best selling author, Bill Bonner, basically wrote a review of the letter without knowing it! He pointed out that China’s digital currency is a BIG DEAL….  He also had this to say in his letter rogueeconomics.com “The U.S. feds can control many elements in their fantasy world.

They can create “money” out of thin air. They can create make-work jobs. They can increase ersatz “demand” – by giving away more fake money. They can goose up stock prices… and suppress interest rates.

The thing they can’t do is control the value of their phony-baloney dollars.

And when it becomes more obvious that the morons have lost control of the dollar, the new digital yuan may look like a handy alternative.” – Bill Bonner

Chuck again…  OK… Well if you want evidence that the Cartel is implementing their Yield Curve Control (YCC), you don’t have to look any further than the movement in the 10-year Treasury’s yield, which has been moving downward for over a week now…  Going from 1.78% to 1.65% this morning…  Basically, in bond, when you buy a ton of bonds, the price will rise and the yield goes down, and vice versa when there is a ton of selling of bonds, the price would go down and the yield would go up…  In the Cartel’s YCC they would be the buyer… thus the drop in the yield in the last week…

In the Cartel’s meeting minutes yesterday, the Cartel’s members were split on their takes of how inflation is rising… I took this from MarketWatch.com “Several” Fed officials said that supply bottlenecks and strong demand would push up price inflation “more than anticipated,” the minutes said.

At the same time, “several” other Fed officials expressed belief that the factors that had contributed to low inflation over the past decade “could again exert more downward pressure on inflation than expected.”

Chuck again… And in the end the cartel believes that inflation for 2021 will reach 2.4%…  I’m going to call them out on that, and say malarkey! Balderdash! Hokum! And so on….  John Williams at Shadowstats.com says that real inflation is running just below 5%…   And it’s rising!  A week or so I titled a Pfennig with these words; If The Fed Really Wants Inflation, They Should Calculate It Correctly! Is that so correct! 

OK… China’s digital currency… I’ve told you previously that all countries are developing their own digital currency… It’s just that China was first… And they will be able to trade in the blockchain with their digital currency, which means…. Countries around the world will be holding digital yuan/ renminbi as reserves… And reducing the dollars they held as reserves…

The question in my mind is this… What is the U.S. going to do about this, for this does not bode well for the dollar’s future as a reserve currency…  And this is where we drop down into a deep rabbit hole folks…  Will this mean war with China? Will there be financial sanctions on China?  There are a myriad of things that could come about and none of them are good for relations between the U.S and China!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the aforementioned Cartel Meeting Minutes… So with that out of the way, we can concentrate on the other two prints yesterday… with the first being, The Feb. Trade Deficit, which rose to $71.1 Billion from $67.8 Billion in Jan…  And the Consumer Credit for Feb (read debt) grew $2.7 Billion…   Let’s see, first off I know this isn’t how it works, but let’s just play with this and see what Chuck has in mind…   the difference in the Trade Deficit was $3.4 Billion, and the increase in Consumer debt was $2.7 Billion…  That’s very interesting to me how close those two are to matching…

Today’s Data Cupboard will have the usual Thursday fare of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims…  Now you may recall that 3 weeks ago, the number of Claims fell below 700,000 for the first time during the pandemic phase…  But then two weeks ago, they climbed back above 700,000 to 719,000… So, it will be interesting to see what’s going to print here today…   

Well I didn’t have to wait too long for the number to print, and since the letter is a little later this morning, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose last week to 744,000… Ahem, the last two weeks of claims seem to be going in the wrong direction…  What do the spin doctors say about that? 

Before we head to the Big Finish today, I wanted to point out something that I’ve talked about for a few years, and that is to watch the Euro-wannabes for they will indicate if the dollar is really in a weak trend… So, who are the euro-wannabes?  The Hungarian forint, the Polish zloty, and Czech koruna…   Just the other day there was a blurb from the GATA folks that Hungary had increased their Gold reserves by a HUGE amount… And I don’t know if you follow these three, but the forint has dropped from the 308 handle to 301 in the past week… And the koruna, after months of trying has slipped below the 22 figure..  So, these three are in rally mode… 

I’m well aware of the fact that they have been in rally mode a couple of times in the past and their moves proved to be false dawns…  The dollar always seems to get rescued from a ride on the slippery slope by the Plunge Protection Team (PPT)…  But one of these days, Alice… to the moon! (for the currencies, not the dollar!) 

To recap… The currencies saw some profit taking yesterday, and their recent trend of rallies proved once again that a trend is not a ONE-WAY Street!  Gold worked diligently to rid itself of its early morning loss of $8, but a flurry of short Gold Paper trades flooded the market at the close and Gold ended down $6…. Silver erased all but 5-cents of its 26-cent loss in the early morning trading. Chuck talks about Inflation, the Chinese digital currency, as does Bill Bonner too!   Chuck points out that the Cartel’s YCC appears to be being implemented…

For What It’s Worth… Ok, as I said above, I have a snippet of the article where Dennis Miller interviewed me regarding digital currencies… So, that article can be found at Dennis’s website, or if you subscribe to his letter, it’ll be in your email box this morning, but it can be found here: www.milleronthemoney.com

Or, here’s your snippet: “ Dennis asks, Doesn’t “slowly lose value” mean negative interest rates – confiscation?

CHUCK: Thanks again Dennis to allow me to opine here…

To answer your question, yes it does mean negative interest rates. The thing that I keep talking about is the fact that the banks will then be able to charge you for logging into your account, and everything else, and there’s nothing you can do about it, because…. Well, the “money” is digits.

And, if you want to move your digits down the street to a different bank – that’s not going to help you, because banks will all be under the same fee schedules. Of course, price-fixing is illegal, wink, wink!”

Chuck again…  This is a powerful article folks, and one that I wish everyone would read, so they can begin to protect their accumulated wealth… if not for you, then your kids, or grandkids…

Market Prices 4/8/2021: American Style: A$ .7644,  kiwi .7050,  C$ .7946, euro 1.1880, sterling 1.3765, Swiss $1.0782, European Style: rand 14.5268, krone 8.4798, SEK 8.5876,  forint 301.80,  zloty 3.8313,  koruna 21.7887, RUB 77.28, yen 109.15, sing 1.3401, HKD 7.7779, INR 74.53, China 6.5392, peso 20.15, BRL 5.5980,  Dollar Index 92.26,  Oil $59.62,  10-year 1.65%, Silver $25.45, Platinum $1,237.00, Palladium $2,694.00, Copper $4.08, and Gold… $1,748.50

That’s it for today… Opening Day in St. Louis… it doesn’t get much better than that! I used to get invited to every opening day but, those were the days my friend, we thought they’d never end… It’s funny how business relationships end when you leave… Out of sight, out of mind, and I thought they were my friends! UGH!  Oh, well, if it’s going to be a rainy day, I think sitting in my back yard and watching the game will do me just fine! I’ll still get the goosebumps when those beautiful Clydesdales come trotting into the stadium!  Tomorrow is Friday, and it will be a Big Day for me for a number of reasons, of which I’m not going to talk about now… OK.. this is BIG NEWS!  On April 21 (Frank Trotter’s Birthday) at 4:30 EDT I will join my publishers, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, along with Omar Ayales on a virtual panel to discuss Gold & Silver…  This is being put on by the Money Show folks, and if you want to register to watch and listen to what we have to say, click here to register: https://online.moneyshow.com/2021/April/money-metals-and-mining-virtual-expo/registration/?scode=052516    I hope you all inundate the system and overload it with large numbers of people that have registered… In fact, I’ll be very disappointed if that doesn’t happen! 

On a sidebar… The woman who puts these things together at the Money Show, contacted me and wanted a bio and picture of me…  I said, “I don’t know if you were there or not, but… I used to speak at Money Show presentations 3 to 4 times per year.Surely you have that info and phot on file… And she said, “Oh, of course, I remember you now Chuck Butler, we’ll use what we have”… Whew, I did not want to write another bio!

Ok… The Climax Blues Bank takes us to the finish line today with their 80’s song: Couldn’t Get It Right… “kept on looking for a sign in the middle of the night, but I couldn’t get it right”….  I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

Inflation Is All Around Us!

April 7, 2021

* currencies rally again on Tuesday… 

* Gold & Silver have a good Tuesday, but are down today… 

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  That was a real grinder of a game last night, but my beloved Cardinals rallied and won 4-2.. Baseball games can be exciting, full of action, and slow and grinding at the same time… I love baseball…   We had the pool deck coating removed yesterday for a new coating, and talk about a mess! I’m sure some of my neighbors will be complaining about the dust on their patios! But there’s no other way to do the job… I guess we’ll have to offer to clean their patios and decks… UGH!  Johnny Nash greets me this morning with his rock classic song: I Can See Clearly Now… 

The currencies had another day of rallying VS the dollar yesterday… The Dollar Index fell to 92.30 at the end of the day from 92.73 at the beginning of the day. The euro really moved higher in the 1.18 handle, and all the other currencies followed the Big Dog, chasing the dollar down the street. Even the Japanese yen, which had seen nothing but selling in recent weeks, found a way to move back to the 1.09 handle… I’m going to repeat myself here… As I said yesterday, I do believe that the currency traders are finally looking at all the currency (dollars) that has been printed, and what’s going to BE printed, and decided that buying dollars was foolish…  

Gold & Silver were some really bright spots in the markets yesterday, with Gold rising $15.10 on the day to close at $1,744.60, and Silver rose by 31-cents to close the day at $25.25…  So, what’s changed with these two from all the bloodletting they were absorbing the past month? Well, I’ve always contended that you can’t teach stupid…   But stupid can finally see the light…  And to my way of thinking, this is what has changed… stupid saw the light…  

On a sidebar… My grandkids would be all over me like a cheap suit, if they read the Pfennig, and I said the “s” word so many times!   I always point out to them that if it was good enough for Charlie Brown, then I can say it!

In the overnight markets.. There has been more selling of the dollar, but not as much as the last two U.S. sessions. The Dollar Index has slipped further down to 92.22 this morning, and the euro is within spittin’ distance of the 1.19 handle… Gold & Silver are seeing some profit taking this morning as Gold is down $8 and Silver is down 26-cents…  Those are small amounts and can be reversed easily… so maybe use the cheaper price to buy some additional metals? 

OK… Well… the goose that laid the golden egg, is dying… That is the U.S. as we know it… Changes are coming folks, and they are not changes that we will embrace…  All of our deficit spending is killing the goose, slowly but surely… Sort of like Chinese torture… Speaking of the Chinese… tomorrow in Dennis Miller’s milleronthemoney.com letter, I will discuss the Chinese and their new digital yuan/ renminbi… This is a game changer folks…  And once his letter hits the streets, I’ll share a snippet with you from it, but you should be signed up for his letter now!

I have to go out on limb here, and hope people understand that I’m merely trying to alert them to things that could be happening to them… And the need to make sure you have a store of wealth to keep you and your family strong in the future…   OK… Last week I mentioned how ticked I was about this so-called Covid-passport…  Some states have already said they will not be a part of this, like Florida and Michigan… There may be others but those are the two that I’m aware of right now…  What I’m reading now is that the Gov’t is not going to be the monitor of the passports… But the government will set the rules that people will have to abide by…  The talk now is that private corporations will be the monitors of the passport…   Here’s James Rickards on the passport: “This would be a document of some sort, likely in digital form as a QR code on your mobile phone. If you have the COVID vaccination, you’ll get a QR code to put on your phone. With that, you’ll be able to board airplanes, attend concerts and sports events, go to classes and basically live life as ‘normal’…

“Without the QR code, your ‘papers’ will not be in order and you will be denied transportation, entertainment and educational options. It’s basically a way to force people to be vaccinated if they want to live a normal life.”- James Rickards, in the 5 Minute Forecast, 4/6/21

You know me… I’m against anything that limits my civil liberties and freedoms of movement…  Everyone should contact their representative and tell them how they feel about this, if in fact, you are in agreement with me that this is going to be the end of our civil liberties and freedoms of movement…

While I’m out on a limb, I might as well throw this up against the wall…  I’ve had a few dear readers ask me this question. “What do you think of MLB pulling the All-Star game out of Atlanta Georgia?” Ok, for those of you living under a rock, Major League Baseball pulled the All-Star game out of Atlanta Georgia, because they didn’t agree with Georgia’s new voting law that will require photo ID…  Wait! What?  That’s crazy! The pulling out of the All-Star game that is… not the voter law…  To me… This is a case of MLB succumbing to the woke cancel culture…  There I said it…

Ok, back to regular programming here…  I told you yesterday about how inflation is all around us, and it is… You know, it’s not just price increases of the same items you’ve been buying for some time now, it’s also the changing of the size of the item that you are purchasing… You may be paying the same price, but in the end you have to buy more to make up for the size difference…  I’ve talked about this for years, so this is nothing new to long time readers.. Probably just had to jog their memories, that’s all… Well, I have an article for you to day in the FWIS section that talks about this downsizing to deflect the price adjustments, so make sure you stay turned for that!

The U.S Data Cupboard yesterday had the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, and they are looking through rose colored glasses, folks… The IMF believes that the Global GDP will rise 6% in 2022… Now here are some interesting numbers… The IMF also believes that the driver of the Global economy will not be the U.S. but China and India, with GDP’s of  8.4% and 12.5% respectively… 

If , and that’s a BIG IF, India is going to grow 12.5% in 2022, currency investors should be backing up the truck to buy rupees…   I’m just saying…  (of course it will be too late to buy rupees by the time the 2022 GDP prints )

Speaking of GDP growth… Dig This! The IMF says that Australia will outperform the major economies of the world in 2021, with a 4.5% GDP…   But before we break out the champagne and orange juice, the IMF said that they believe the GDP for Australia will fall back in 2022 to 2.8%…  Hmmm…. That’s quite a drop from 2021, isn’t it? And makes me think that the IMF will revise that figure in the coming months… Just like that did with the 2021 forecast, that that originally said would be 3.5%, and now have revised it upward to 4.5%…  Either way, it does help to explain the strength in the A$ so far in 2021…

Today’s Data Cupboard has the Feb Trade Deficit… look for this to rise to $70 Billion from $68 Billion in Jan.   We’ll also see the color of Consumer Credit, read debt…  And finally the Cartels’ FOMC Meeting Minutes from the last meeting…. There’s nothing to see here, so move along… These are not the droids we’re looking for!

To recap… The currencies had another day of rallying VS the dollar on Monday… The Dollar Index fell from 92.73 in the morning to 92.30 at the end of the day… Gold & Silver had a good day, with Gold gaining $15 and Silver gaining 31-cents on the day.  Chuck sure is getting feisty in his old age…  A wise man once told him that as you grow old you can say whatever you want, because no one listens to you, and so he’s testing that theory this morning…  The IMF says India’s GDP will grow 12.5% in 2022… beep, beep beep, that’s the sound of the truck backing up to load up with rupees, ahead of the Indian economy’s rise…  Chuck thinks that this call for 12.5% GDP is a longshot… But, IF it does happen… You saw it here first!

For What It’s Worth… Once again today, like yesterday, good friend, Dennis Miller sent me this article and while reading it I knew it was FWIW material! It’s about the inflation that businesses can’t hide, and it can be found here: The Inflation They Can’t Hide – The Burning Platform

Or, here’s your snippet: “You can’t reduce the size of a 4×8 sheet of plywood to hide the rising cost of one – or shave some length off a 2x4x8 – without it being not only obvious but an issue, functionally. Try siding a house with 4×7.4 sheets of plywood, for instance.

So, instead, the price goes up. Which is really a measure of the value of your money going down.

The same has been happening for some time at supermarkets, less noticeably. Or at least in a way that makes many people not notice it because that pack of bacon they just bought still costs about the same as it cost a year ago.

Only now it’s 12 ounces instead of 16.

Fewer rolls of paper towels – but the price seem unchanged. Such illusions of economic stability are to be found in practically every aisle and on every shelf of the grocery store – the happy spell only broken when you check out your handful of stuff and discover it cost you $100 – or more – for what used to cost you $60 or less.

But the destruction of the value of money – manifested by its ominously decreasing purchasing power – is becoming impossible to not notice when it comes to products that can’t be skimmed, put less of into the same size packages.

A very objective measure of how fast things are slipping – by observing how fast things are rising – is what you could call The 4×8 Plywood Index. About two years ago – in the fall of 2018 – the average national cost of a sheet of 4×8 construction-grade plywood was just $10 or so.

Fast-forward two years and that same sheet of plywood now costs $25 or more (depending on the finish). Some cost $40 per sheet.”

Chuck Again… As I said, inflation is all around us and closing in fast… And the one thing that will destroy a currency’s value?  Inflation…  simply said…

Market Prices 4/7/2021: American Style: A$ .7634,  kiwi .7038,  C$ .7941, euro 1.1893, sterling 1.3821, Swiss $1.0768, European Style: rand 14.5220, krone 8.4568, SEK 8.6057,  forint 302.28,  zloty 3.8463,   koruna 22.7830, RUB 76.75, yen 109.80, sing 1.3388, HKD 7.7860, INR 74.27, China 6.5464, peso 20.16, BRL 5.6356,  Dollar Index 92.22,  Oil $59.78,  10-year 1.66%, Silver $24.99, Platinum $1,230.00, Palladium $2,635.00,  Copper 4.06, and Gold $1,735.20

That’s it for today… I perused through my library of books yesterday, and found an oldie but goodie, that I read many years ago, so many I’ve forgotten when, and thought… I’m going to read it again… The book? Catch -22, by Joseph Heller… the first 100 pages were kind of remembered but not really, so this is going to be good! Well a day game today in Miami for my Cardinals, and then they come home for the home opener tomorrow, which is supposed to be kind of a rainy day… Boo!  As I said last week, a St. Louis baseball home opener is something that everyone should experience, they pull out all of the stops… And when those beautiful Clydesdales come prancing in, goose bumps appear… I’m just saying… Jefferson Starship with Marty Balin, take us to the finish line today with their song: Count On Me…  “Precious love, I’ll give it to you, Blue as the sky and deep In the eyes of a love so true”   I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Currencies Rally On Monday…

April 6, 2021

* Gold & Silver rally in the overnight markets… 

* Mortgage bonds are in peril… 

Good day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! My beloved Cardinals got back on track last night with pitching and defense… Now, they need to do it again tonight! I got a visit from good friend, Mike Kettler last night, who watched a couple of innings of the game with me… I was outside to watch the game, but had to fold up tent, and go inside for the last 2 innings… The Final game of the NCAA Tournament did not go the way I expected it to go… But Congrats to Baylor!  And what the heck has happened to our Blues? They’ve now lost 7 games in a row! And are out of the playoffs at this time! UGH! My fave AC/DC song greets me this morning as my iPod plays their song: You Shook Me All Night Long… 

Well, as traders got back to work, not all, but some, they saw the writing on the wall regarding more deficit spending and more dollars being printed, and decided that enough dollar strength was enough! That is for one day… You see, the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) is still hanging over currency traders like the Sword of Damocles… So, for a day, it was about selling the dollar… The euro climbed back above 1.18, and the Dollar Index lost 36 BPS to end the day at 92.60… That’s a significant move in the Dollar Index for one day’s trading. 

I wasn’t told that the recognition of all the new deficit spending was the reason the currency traders all decided to sell dollars yesterday…  In all my years experience of not only trading currencies, but writing this letter and observing the markets, I’m pretty darn sure that was the motive for selling dollars yesterday…  That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it!

Gold & Silver tried like the devil to get back to even after starting the day down… And they both almost made it, but fell a few shekels short… Gold ended the day down $1.80  to close at $1,729.50, and Silver was down 7-cents to close at $24.94… In the after markets trading Gold was up $6.30, and Silver was up 12-cents, and back above $25….

In the overnight markets… Well, Gold & Silver did hold their aftermarket gains overnight, and have added a bit to them in the early trading, with Gold up $8.30, and Silver remaining at up 12-cents…  The Dollar Index was fought back and is 92.73 this morning, which means the dollar saw some buying overnight, not much, but some…  I read this morning that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has proposed a minimum tax rate for Corporations, globally…  Really? Ok, you’re going to be the tax monitor for a country in Africa, or the one of the stans in Asia? Come on, get serious here…  I do believe that Corporations should play more than their fair share to keep their buildings and personnel safe (Police and Fire) but to play tax monitor is something that’s impossible to do, in my humble opinion! 

I don’t know if you noticed the price of Copper yesterday, but it had fallen below the $4 figure for the first time in 2 months… But overnight the price of Copper skipped higher to $4.04… As I’ve told you previously, the price of Copper is a good indicator of coming inflation… I don’t know if you pay attention when you go to the grocery store, but inflation is all around us folks… All around, and please do not listen or pay attention to the CPI data behind the curtain!  And you won’t see it in the yields of Treasuries, because the Fed is performing their yield curve control… UGH! So, for now, watch the price of Copper… 

I was really put off by a comment to me yesterday… The reader told me to stop quoting Bill Bonner, as he reduces the integrity of my letter….  Really? Bill Bonner is one of the most respected analysts around, and has been for a couple of decades! And he’s my friend… So, no… whenever I get an opportunity to quote Bill Bonner, I will do so…  Now, we’ve put that to bed!

I had a dear reader ask me for the name of a book that would explain the relationship of Gold & Bond Yields… I responded that I wasn’t aware of such book, but would give my own take on that, and then told him: But what is a bond yield at all? The bond yield is a return on investment, expressed as a percentage, for a bond. In other words, they are interest rates offered by bonds. The bond yields are inversely related to the bond prices. The lower the price, the higher the yield, and vice versa. Because both gold and Treasuries are considered to be safe-haven assets, there is a positive correlation between gold and bond prices, and negative correlation between gold prices and bond yields. This is because there are opportunity costs of holding gold, which does not bear any yield, so capital flows from gold to bonds, when yields become sufficiently high, and it flows in a reverse direction, when bond yields become too low.

OK… onto other things…  Long time Reader Bob, sent me a note yesterday regarding the Russian ruble, and I thought I would share a piece of that with you… “Hopes that Russia’s ruble will rise at the beginning of the year have been dashed. Despite relatively good fundamentals – from the Russian economy’s recovery rate to oil prices – the national currency remained volatile. The situation will be uncertain in the second quarter of the year, too, said experts interviewed by Izvestia.”

“The risk of sanctions is the main thing that prevents the Russian currency from strengthening,” Finam analyst Andrei Maslov noted. “Many analysts believe that the ruble is underrated because with oil prices above $60 per barrel, the Russian currency is still weak against the dollar and the euro, which is the result of a serious lack of investor trust based precisely on geopolitical risks,” the expert explained. According to him, the ruble will strengthen over the course of the year, provided that oil prices remain above the $60 level and no tough sanctions are introduced.” From TASS…”

I read an email from the good folks at GATA who quoted Dave Kranzler, of whom I’ve quoted a few times through the years. Mr. Kranzler was talking about the recent sell off of Gold & Silver, and that he thought it was probably due to the price manipulators attempting to get the long holders of the metals to sell their April Contracts or roll them out to July…. Now, I hear you asking, why would that be their goal?  Ahhh Grasshopper… You see, if the April Contracts all stand for delivery of the metals, the COMEX could have a problem making delivery…  Now do you see why the price manipulators were working to achieve this goal?

Yesterday, I loaded up for bear, and really came out firing after a brief holiday… Today, I’m just going to talk a bit about something that I’ve gone through a few times in the last year.. .And that is the danger of armegeddon with housing… The lack of payments on the bonds, and the end holders holding worthless paper…   Well, I have this whole scenario in the FWIS section today, so don’t change that dial!

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had Factory Orders for Feb… In January Factory Orders rallied 2.7%, but February saw it go negative -.8%…  Not a good indicator for the economy….  Today’s Data Cupboard has Job Openings for Feb… really old news… And the IMF will print their World Economic Review…  talk about some boring reading!

To Recap…  The currencies rallied on Monday, and Chuck thinks it had to do with traders seeing the amount of deficit spending coming down the pike… Gold & Silver started the day down but rallied and fought back to close down by a small margin… The Dollar Index yesterday went from 92.96 to 92.60…  A significant swing in Chuck’s mind… And Dave Kranzler tells us that the recent bloodletting in Gold & Sliver was due to the price manipulators trying to get long metals holders to sell their April Contract, or roll it to July… And Chuck explains why!

For What It’s Worth…  The Day of Reckoning is coming for banks and lending companies and the mortgage bonds… You don’t stop receiving payments on debt for over a year, and not have ramifications… I’ve talked about how this could all end up in tears previously, but this time I’m goig to let Bloomberg tell you about what’s coming… And that article can be found here: Mortgage Firms Warned to Prepare for a ‘Tidal Wave’ of Distress – Bloomberg

Or, here’s your snippet: “Mortgage companies could face penalties if they don’t take steps to prevent a deluge of foreclosures that threatens to hit the housing market later this year, a U.S. regulator said Thursday.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau warning is tied to forbearance relief that’s allowed million of borrowers to delay their mortgage payments due to the pandemic. To avoid what the bureau called “avoidable foreclosures” when the relief lapses, mortgage servicers should start reaching out to affected homeowners now to advise them on ways they can modify their loans.

“There is a tidal wave of distressed homeowners who will need help,” Dave Uejio, the CFPB’s acting director, said in a statement. “Servicers who put struggling families first have nothing to fear from our oversight, but we will hold accountable those who cause harm to homeowners and families.”

In a separate compliance bulletin released Thursday, the CFPB said that companies “that are unable to adequately manage loss mitigation can expect the bureau to take enforcement or supervisory action.”

More than 2 million borrowers as of January had either postponed their payments or failed to make them for at least three months, the bureau said. Once government-authorized forbearance plans begin to end in September, hundreds of thousands of people may need assistance getting back on track.”

Chuck Again.. Unintended Consequences… They always come back to bit you in the ask me no more questions, I’ll tell you no more lies…. I’m just saying…

Market Prices 4/6/2021: American Style: A$ .7626,  kiwi .7020,  C$ .7957, euro 1.1808, sterling 1.3828, Swiss $1.0666, European Style: rand 14.5086, krone 8.5298, SEK 8.6857,  forint 304.97,  zloty 3.8850,   koruna 22.0602, RUB 76.34, yen 110.31, sing 1.3409, HKD 7.7767, INR 73.38, China 6.5669, peso 20.29, BRL 5.6851,  Dollar Index 92.73,  Oil $59.93,   10-year 1.69%, Silver $25.06, Platinum $1,214.00, Palladium $2,744.00, Copper $4.04, and Gold $1,737.80, 

That’s it for today… Man… I had to put a new battery in my car upon returning home, and it’s not like it used to be…where you loosened a couple of bolts and  took the old battery out, and then put the new one in, and tightened the bolts… I had to do all kinds of releases and then I dropped a bolt and when I went to reach it, I sliced open my arm on some metal… OUCH!  I hope no one was around because I let off a set of swear words that would make a Sailor blush! I didn’t need stitches, but it was close… UGH! Well… I’m now down 65 lbs from last Rocktober, and my blood sugar numbers are in line, finally! I would like to lose another 50lbs… But getting here has been very difficult to do for me… But, I’ve got to try! My weight through the years has been up and down, with more ups than downs… So, to get where I need to be, and stabilize that, would be a giant step in the right direction for my health! My visitor last night reminded me that I said that if the weather was good that I would have a driveway happy hour this Friday… And it looks like the weather will be good, so if you’re reading this and want to join us, with safe distancing, come on by!  The Babys  take us to the finish line today with their song: Midnight Rendezvous…  “driving faster than you want me to, Can’t help myself when I’m alone with you, Alright!”  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

 

Dollar Reserves Fall To 2010 Levels…

April 5, 2021

* Currencies begin the week flat… 

* Gold & Silver start the week down a bit… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you… Easter Monday at that! Yes, a lot of the world takes this day as a holiday, but not me… Unfortunately! I could have easily gone back to sleep this morning, but being the writing soldier that I am, I conquered the sleepy feeling!  Aren’t you proud of me? HA! Sad news last week, when I read that one of my all-time favorite Cardinals players, Kenny Reitz, aka The Zamboni, had died… I have one of his baseball cards hung on my pictures wall that faces me as I write the Pfennig.. Not the greatest hitter, but boy could he play 3rd base! He set the record for least errors by a 3rd baseman 2 times… with 9 one year and 8 on the other…  I guess as I go along in years, I’ll have to deal with many of my younger life faves… UGH!  The Grass Roots greet me this morning with their song: Let’s Live For Today…  Now that’s some good advice, eh?

Well, last Friday was Good Friday, and for the most part, markets were closed… Except the currency markets! Gold & Silver weren’t traded, so the charge on the dollar was left to the currencies. And well, they didn’t charge too hard, because the Dollar Index gained 9 BPS to finish the week at 93.02…  The euro fared better than most currencies on the day, gaining about 10 BPS Vs the dollar, which is, in reality, a pretty muted move… 

In the overnight markets last night… There’s really not been much movement in the currencies, as the Dollar Index has fallen about 6 BPS, which really indicates that everything here is flat…  Gold & Silver are back to trading this morning, and maybe they should have stayed on the sidelines, because Gold is down $7.80 this morning and Silver is down 10-cents…  Those losses could very well be turned around easily today, so I’ll be watching for that!  

So, since there was little in the markets to talk about from Friday and last night, I’m going to got out on a limb and talk about some things going on that really get my goat… And throw it up against the wall to see if it sticks…  ready? OK, let’s go!

Last week I told you that the dollar’s ratio of currency held as foreigner reserves had fallen to a low that hadn’t been seen since 2010, which was before the hidden debts of Club Med countries of Europe was exposed, and the dollar’s long time weak trend turned on a dime…  That’s a Big Development folks… I can’t begin to express how BIG this is…  But let me just give you this bit of information to see if it gets your mind thinking about how big this news is…   The share of Chinese renminbi in foreign reserves hit an all-time high!  

The dedollarization that was started by Russia, and then joined by China appears to be catching on around the world… China and Russia have stared a clearing facility like SWIFT, that they say anyone in the world can use, and won’t be used to punish countries, like SWIFT does… (of course the U.S. runs SWIFT, so you get what the new facility is saying)…  This means that countries that join the new facility will be able to trade with another country using the facility in their home currencies, and not have to buy dollars in the terms of the transaction…   

Add to this the fact that China’s digital currency is ready for prime time, and I can’t even begin to express how important this is in the future for the dollar…  I do explain it in an interview that will be running in Dennis Miller’s Milleronthemoney.com soon… So, if you aren’t already a subscriber to his free letter, and you want to know what I said… well, go to the site and sign up!  You’ll be glad you did!

Ok, switching gears here…  Ok. Last week President Biden presented his latest deficit spending bill… It was a $2.3 Billion so-called infrastructure bill…   So, here’s the skinny on how that $2.3 Billion will be spent… courtesy of Bill Bonner’s www.rogueeconomics.com… get out your calculators to check my math if you want….  “Most of the $2.3 trillion will buy votes rather than infrastructure, including $400 billion for “elder and disability care,” $213 billion for “green and affordable homes,” $174 billion for electric vehicles, $137 billion for “school and childcare infrastructure,” $100 billion for “job training” and so forth.

It’s a smorgasbord for Democratic Party urban constituencies that leaves $180 billion for “R&D in tech of the future” and $300 billion in manufacturing subsidies as an afterthought.” – Bill Bonner… 

As Bill points out…”You may wonder why $2.3 trillion would be needed. After all, roads are supported by gasoline and road taxes… And except for the Interstate highway system, they’re a local matter.

Bridges, too, are paid for by users – either via tolls or taxes.

Ports? Same story, paid for by the shippers who use them. And airports, by ticket sales.

Railroads? Except for the money-losing Amtrak, they are privately owned. If they need more track or rolling stock, they can apply their profits or raise more money honestly.

If a new airport is needed, it is easily funded by the people who use the airport. And if it can’t be paid for in such a reasonable and obvious way, why is it being built?

If the Port of Long Beach, for example, needs more capacity, wouldn’t it make sense to charge the ships that come into port with their containers… and the railroads and trucks that haul it away?

Of course, it would. They know what is needed and how much it is worth. The feds do not. ” – Bill Bonner

The big take away here is that another $2.3 Billion of money that the Gov’t doesn’t have will be spent, which means that $2.3 Billion new dollars will be printed…  And one wonders why the share of dollars as reserve currency has dropped to a decade low?  Hmmm… 

OK… here’s another thing that’s been on mind… And that is… that we as a country have passed the $28 Trillion in Debt mark like a car passing a picket fence… Now, that didn’t take too long now did it?  Well, actually it was just 13 months since we passed $27 Trillion…   And during that time we’ve added $4.2 Trillion of money supply…  And again one wonders why the dollar’s share of reserves has fallen to a decade low?  Well, I don’t wonder, because I know! 

Friend, Dennis Miller, sent me an article that talks about the debt increase, and I have it for you as our FWIW article today, so stay tuned, don’t touch that dial! 

Well, if we’re looking for any direction from the U.S. Data Cupboard this week, we’ll be disappointed… There’s really not much to speak of in the cupboard scheduled for this week. We will see the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday from their last meeting…  Those are always good for some rogue comment… So, we’ll have to wait-n-see that on Wednesday… 

To recap… The markets for the most part have been closed since Thursday evening, as the Good Friday and Easter Monday holidays that surround the holy day of Easter, have seen little to no trading…  So, Chuck goes out on a limb and talks about some things on his mind… Not all things on his mind, for he doesn’t have the time or space to empty his brain!  HA!   Gold & Silver are down a bit this morning, and the currencies are flat to start the week… 

For What It’s Worth…  Ok, I gave a teaser above about this article and so to finish that, this is an article that really gets into the debt rise above $28 Trillion, and it can be found here: US National Debt Passes $28 Trillion, +$4.7 Trillion in 13 Months. General Treasury Account Down by $480 Billion in 2 Months, $620 Billion to Go | Wolf Street

Or, here’s your snippet: “It finally happened, that glorious moment, when, after teetering on the verge for weeks – for reasons we’ll get into shortly – the incredibly spiking US gross national debt, after kissing the line a couple of times for a moment, finally, and suddenly by a big leap, jumped over the $28-trillion mark, with a $143-billion leap in one day on Wednesday, March 31, following some big Treasury sales. It gave some of that up on Thursday as some bonds matured. And it now amounts to $28.08 trillion, as per US Treasury Department on Friday.

The US gross national debt has now spiked by $4.7 trillion in 13 months since the end of February 2020, in the days before this show started.

During the final months of the Mnuchin Treasury, it was decided to start spending down the balance in the checking account by borrowing a little less, and by early January, the GTA had dropped to $1.6 trillion.

Early on in the Yellen Treasury, the drawdown was formalized. In early February, a schedule was announced: the balance would be brought down by $1.1 trillion to $500 billion by June. And they’re now well into it.

The drawdown has the effect that the government spends money it doesn’t have to borrow at the moment because it already borrowed it last spring when the Fed was still monetizing essentially all of the borrowing. This has some implications for the markets.

The government’s TGA is at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is reported weekly on the Fed’s balance sheet as a liability (banks report deposit accounts as liabilities) because this is money the Fed owes the government.”

Chuck again.. Basically what’s happening here folks is that the Gov’t now spends the proceeds from debt sales last spring that the Fed had monetized back then?   I really don’t know how the markets will take this development, but, in my mind I believe that the markets should punish the dollar for these monetary crimes… 

Market prices 4/5/2021: American Style: A$ .7629,  kiwi .7046,  C$ .7969, euro 1.1759, sterling 1.3866, Swiss $1.0610, European style: rand 14.6130, krone 8.5421, SEK 8.7510,  forint 306.61,   zloty 3.9004,   koruna 22.1271, RUB 76.39, yen 110.51, sing 1.3440, HKD 7.7758, INR 73.32, China 6.5660, peso 20.26,  BRL 5.7060,  Dollar Index 92.96,  Oil $59.71,   10-year 1.73%, Silver $24.92, Platinum $1,197.00, Palladium $2,696.00, Copper $3.97, and Gold… $1,723.50

That’s it for today… Well, a fantastico day, weather wise yesterday, led to a huge backyard Easter celebration with family yesterday…  My little Evie, was so darned cute and is getting around free and easy these days! It was great seeing some family members that I hadn’t seen in 3 months…  The grandkids hunted eggs, and the food was great! A grand time was had by all! Well, my beloved Cardinals started the season on the right foot, and then stumbled the next two games, and now head to Miami after losing 2 of 3 to the Reds… Deep Purple takes us to the finish line today with their rock classic song: Smoke On The Water…   I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, and will be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

It’s Baseball’s Opening Day!

April 1, 2021

* Currencies drift again on Wednesday and overnight

* Chuck asks, Has the bottom for Gold been put in? 

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Another beautiful, very warm, day here… The weather people tell me that today will be a day of rain… We haven’t had a drop of rain here since the first weekend of the month… So, even though it’s my last day here for a while, I’ll be OK, with rain… For all that came to visit us this month, you’ve had some of the best weather ever!  As the days get warmer and warmer, I find that I can’t sit out in the sun as long…  After about an hour and a half yesterday, I called it a day!  We’ve made some good friends down here this year… And one of them (Karen) was trying to talk me into staying!  I would, but… family and Easter…  3 years ago, I spent most of the summer down here by myself, as the construction was being done on our new unit… Don McClean greets me this morning with his song: Vincent… Starry, starry night… paint your palette blue and gray…   that song always makes me tear up… and I don’t know why!

The assault on the currencies & metals seems to have ended, for now… The currencies drifted along yesterday, and had no real direction. The Dollar Index which was trading at 93.17 in the morning, ended the day at 93.19… So, as you can see… little change in the currencies…  Gold & Silver finally saw a bid after a week of seeing only offers… Gold ended the day up $22.80 to close the day at $1,709.50, and Silver also gained on the day 41-cents to close the day at $24.41…  Finally!  Was the bottom for these two metals put in on Tuesday?  I sure hope so!

In the overnight markets… There’s been little to no movement in the currencies. The Dollar Index is trading at 93.15, this morning, so compared to last night’s 93.19, you can see that there’s been little movement. Gold, however, is starting the day up about $6 as I write… Silver is down 9-cents, but that can be turned around quickly, and I do believe it will be today…  So, if Gold can hold its gains today and even add to them, that would signify that the bottom was put in on Tuesday… 

Well, the good folks at GATA sent me two emails yesterday, and both are going to featured here in the Pfennig today… The first one goes like this: “U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-West Virginia, today re-introduced sound money legislation to remove all federal income taxation from gold and silver coins and bullion.

The Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act (H.R. 2284), backed by the Sound Money Defense League and free-market activists, would clarify that the sale and exchange of precious metals bullion and coins are not to be included in capital gains, losses, or any other type of federal income calculation.”

And the second one goes like this: “The dollar’s share of global currency reserves dropped in the fourth quarter to around 59%, the lowest in 25 years, according to International Monetary Fund data.

The slide came in a quarter when a gauge of the greenback fell the most since 2010, and amid questions about how long the dollar can maintain its status as the pre-eminent reserve currency.”

Chuck again… Ok, first off, I would like to tell you to contact your representative and tell him you’re behind the H.R. 2284….  This guy, Alex Mooney, has been fighting for this for some time, he implemented it in his state of West Virginia, but now would like to see go nationally… And so would I! Talk about a boon to Gold & Silver!  People love tax free stuff!

And second of all… I’ve been telling you for ages now that the dollar’s ratio of reserve currency held by foreigners was going down… And now we learn it’s the lowest its been since 2010?   If Foreign Central Banks can see the dollar’s future with all the supply in dollars floating around, then why can’t currency traders?  You don’t think that… Nah, don’t go there Chuck!, Oh, you might as well, you already started to tell them your thoughts…  You don’t think that currency traders have gotten the memo from the Gov’t that they are not to short the dollar, do you?   I do!

And before I go on… I have a bone to pick with the Gov’t for even thinking about implementing a vaccine passport… That is a gross violation of our rights!  And why would tax paying citizens be required to have a vaccine passport, when the President is allowing thousands of illegal immigrants into the country without a vaccine?  I’m an so up in arms about this thought, that It makes me want to scream!

Ok… I had better get back to the regular programming before I really tick everyone off!  Hmmm..  let’s see… Well,, the other day I mentioned that the Cartel had announced they would be implementing yield curve control (YCC) s  YCC is another way of interest-rate setting that involves buying as much U.S. Treasuries and government-backed debt as necessary to keep yields below a certain level… 

Now you may be saying, isn’t that a form of interest rate manipulation?  Well, you would be exactly correct! What had happened in recent months is the bond boys saw inflation rising, and the Cartel’s desire to let inflation run hot, and they began to sell bonds to lower the price of the bond, and raise the yield…  Thus higher interest rates/ yields would combat inflation… But the Cartel saw this and decided that they would teach the bond boys a lesson… They’ll buy truck loads of bonds, and thus cause the price of the bonds to rise, and the yield to drop…

That’s all fine and good… Let the Cartel do what they want to do, because not even Congress can stop them now… But the thing to think about here is that they don’t give these bonds away for free! You have to pay for them, and since the Cartel has no money to spend on them, guess what happens? Ahhh grasshopper, you’ve learned well… Yes, they will print the currency needed to pay for the bonds… And even more dollars hit the economy… When will it be too much, and the dollar gets punished?  I guess we’ll have to wait-n-see, eh?

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had the ADP Employment Report for March, and it was quite impressive, with 517,000 new hires taken on in March…  If the ADP is 517,000 you can only guess what number will be pulled out of hat by the BLS for their Jobs Jamboree on Friday/ tomorrow…

Today’s Cupboard has the weekly Initial Jobless Claims to print from last week… Recall that last week’s print for the previous week, saw the Claims drop below 700,000 for the first time since the Pandemic came to our shores a year ago…  Even with this drop, the number was still higher than the highest number during the Great Recession of 13 years ago… 

We’ll also see the ISM Manufacturing Index for March and Construction Spending for March… No real market moving prints, although the ISM used to be a market moving print…

To recap… The currencies drifted all day yesterday, with no real directional movement, and in the overnight markets there was more drifting in the currencies. Gold & Silver finally saw a bid yesterday, and ran with it, with Gold closing up $22.80, and Silver closing up 41-cents… In the early trading today both are       . Chuck is upset with the vaccine passport idea… And goes the whole nine yards in describing yield curve control…

For What It’s Worth…. The FWIW articles well was pretty dry this morning, that is as far as thing s I want to talk about and not get people ticked off at me! And then I went back in my email box and found an article from the good folks at Wallstreetonparade.com. This is an article about how those dastardly derivatives have caused some major damage, and it can be found here: Shades of 2008: Derivative Bets Blow Up Archegos Hedge Fund; Inflict Billions in Losses on Global Banks (wallstreetonparade.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “The Archegos Capital Management hedge fund implosion has, thus far, delivered billions of dollars in losses to the shareholders of global banks Credit Suisse and Nomura, whose market values have plummeted; done serious reputational damage to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, both of whom are allowed to own federally-insured banks even after they came close to blowing themselves up in 2008 and surely would have without gargantuan secret bailouts from the Federal Reserve; cut the market value of ViacomCBS in half; dropped the market value of Discovery by 40 percent; shaved billions of dollars off the market value of major Wall Street banks yesterday as rumors ran wild about who is hiding losses; and raised critical questions, once again, about the competency of the Federal Reserve to supervise these federally-insured trading casinos.

The Archegos meltdown has done one more thing. It has reminded the readers of Wall Street On Parade that our decade of hand-wringing over the dangerous brew of allowing federally-insured, deposit-taking banks to own tens of trillions of dollars in opaque, over-the-counter derivatives remains the biggest threat to the financial stability of the United States.

What has been pieced together thus far, and not denied by any of the parties involved, is as follows:

After pleading guilty to wire fraud involving insider trading in 2012 on behalf of another hedge fund he founded, Sung Kook “Bill” Hwang sometime thereafter quietly founded a “family office,” a hedge fund that is allowed to decide for itself if it needs to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. There are no filings with the SEC to suggest it knows Archegos exists or how it operates and there are no 13-F filings with the SEC to show the dangerous levels of stock exposure and leverage it had amassed through derivatives contracts with some of the biggest banks on Wall Street. This, of course, raises the question as to just how much of this booming stock market is based on secret derivative contracts between dodgy hedge funds and federally-insured banks.”

Chuck Again… Pam and Russ Martens of WSOP, do an excellent job of laying out the problems and explaining how they collapsed… And once again, there’s no way in my mind that Banks should be dealing in derivatives, other than hedging their mortgage pipeline… 

Market prices 4/1/2021… American Style: A$ .7563,  kiwi .6975, C$ .7947, euro 1.1743, sterling 1.3776, Swiss $1.0575, European Style: rand 14.7275, krone 8.5498, SEK 8.7418, forint 308.47, zloty 3.9350,  koruna 22.1974, RUB 75.62, yen 110.80, sing 1.3460, HKD 7.7769, INR 73.42, China 6.5536, peso 20.40,  BRL 5.7184,  Dollar Index 93.15,  Oil $60.20,   10-year 1.72%, Silver $24.42, Platinum $1,188.00, Palladium $2,684.0, Copper $4.01, and Gold $1,715.70

That’s it for today… Happy April Fools Day!  And welcome to April… I forgot to say that at the beginning today, so here it is now!  I hope you steer clear of having any April Fool’s jokes pulled on you today! Tomorrow is a long day of travel for yours truly, with a 3 hour layover in Nashville a part of the day! UGH! And on Sunday, it will be Easter… A very holy day for much of the world…  And the end of lent, so meat can be eaten again on Fridays!  When I was a young man, we couldn’t eat meat on ANY Friday… Lots of fish sticks and mac & cheese, were the fares at the Butler House…  So, I hope you have some great family plans this weekend… I know I do… it will be good to see my little Evie again, and her big brother Braden… It’s going to take some time for Evie to warm up to me again, I’m sure… I used to be able to make her smile very easily… But 3 months away, and she’ll probably look at me like deer into the headlights! I can’t wait to see Delaney Grace in her Easter Bonnet!  Oh My Goodness… What am I thinking about! Today is OPENING DAY for baseball! It should be a national holiday, but since it isn’t, folks in the home ball parks will have to call in sick today!  Go Cardinals!  Our city’s home opener isn’t for another week… The Clydesdales, the Hall of Famers, the pomp and majesty of a St. Louis Cardinals Home Opener will give you goose bumps! The Marshal Tucker Band takes us to the finish line today with their song: Can’t You See?   I hope you have a very blessed Easter on Sunday, and before that a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday, and a Fantastico Good Friday, and will try to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

 

If The Fed Really Wants Inflation, Then Calculate It Correctly!

March 31, 2021

* The selling of currencies & metals has ceased for a day… 

* Rogoff says dollar’s dominance is fragile… 

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you!  As my time down here in the South of Florida dwindles to just a couple of days left, I think about just staying here… That is until I know for sure that the weather has turned warmer for good back home… Yes, it’s been nice there recently, but.. it’s April, and April is a crapshoot as far as weather is concerned… But I’ll go home and spend Easter with my family, and then decide whether to return or not… Like my good friend, Duane, said in the stairwell of a French Quarter apartment, “I don’t want to go home”…  Soft Cell greets me this morning with their song: Tainted Love… Now there’s an old classic for you!

So, I hear you saying, “enough whining Chuck about having to go home”…  Maybe in the time it takes me on Friday to travel back to St. Louis, the markets will have figured out how wrong they are about the dollar’s future, and Gold’s future, and so on…  And next Monday, Easter Monday, I’ll have nothing but good news to bring to you non-dollar holders…  And then again, pigs might be seen flying…

Well.. the currencies tried to mount a challenge to the dollar yesterday, but were put down just as quickly as they thought about rallying… The PPT (plunge protection team) has really stepped up their game regarding protecting the dollar lately… . Yesterday’s drop in the currencies wasn’t that bad, as the Dollar Index moved from 93.19 yesterday morning to close at 93.26… That’s the good news…

The bad news is that Gold never recovered from its early morning loss of $23.00 and ended up losing $25.70 on the day to close at $1,687.00… And Silver followed Gold down the slippery slope to show a loss of 63-cents and close at $24.10…  Again, these are very ugly closing numbers for these two precious metals… Why has all this selling in Gold & Silver come about in the past week?  Well, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, for one… And the price manipulators are having their way with the metals, which isn’t a good thing…

In the overnight markets… There’s been little to no movement in the currencies & metals overnight… The Dollar Index has given a few shekels back and trades at 93.17 this morning, and Gold & Silver are both flat this morning, moving up only pennies to start the day.  In these crazy days of large price movements it’s nice to see a day of rest for the weary…   Not to say I want to see this kind of price action every day, but once in a while it is a welcome relief… Especially when the dollar protection, and metals suppression has been ruling the roost lately… 

Do you recall the name Kenneth Rogoff?  Well if you don’t I suggest you Google his name and do some background work, for he’s been at the top of economists lists for years!  Well, Ken Rogoff recently did an interview and I think it would behoove us to listen in…  Here’s Ken Rogoff…

“The mighty U.S. dollar continues to reign supreme in global markets. But the greenback’s dominance may well be more fragile than it appears, because expected future changes in China’s exchange-rate regime are likely to trigger a significant shift in the international monetary order.

For many reasons, the Chinese authorities will probably someday stop pegging the renminbi to a basket of currencies, and shift to a modern inflation-targeting regime under which they allow the exchange rate to fluctuate much more freely, especially against the dollar. When that happens, expect most of Asia to follow China. In due time, the dollar, currently the anchor currency for roughly two-thirds of world GDP, could lose nearly half its weight.” – Ken Rogoff from the folks at GATA…

Now that’s what I’ve been thinking for some time now, as the dollar pushes higher every day, that its time atop the currency heap will be short-lived… But right now it’s very difficult to try and stop this runaway bus that is the dollar…  So.. if I were you, I would be looking to buy more currencies and metals on these drops…  My former colleague at Mark Twain Bank World Markets, Ty Keough, used to explain to people that when the dollar rallies, it’s the time to buy currencies, because… you can buy more of them!   I heard him explain this to clients through the years, many, many times, and each time I would take note that he was 100% right!

Our World Markets trade desk was set up so that I could hear each person’s conversations with clients each day… This way I could add to their explanations to clients, or just take notes that there was a different way of saying what they said… I could hear Chris Gaffney, Ty Keough, Aaron Stevenson, Tim Smith, Antione Lawrence and any others all the time… Sometimes they would be on personal calls, and I had to tune them out…  Just thought you would be interested in how we used to deal each day…

I just knew in my heart of hearts that I had given the kiss of death to the Indian rupee on Monday, when I talked about how it was a shinning light in the currencies, having held on to its gains… And On Tuesday I was presented with the award for “dumb comment of the year”… As the rupee last ground to the dollar by the basket full…

So, riddle me this Batman… The dollar gets love when the Cartel buys bonds… But then why does the euro get sold when its Central Bank buys bonds?  Ever since the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that they would be stepping up their bond buying, the euro has been sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair…  You know, it WASN’T that long ago that we were talking about the euro at 1.22… and this morning it trades at 1.1740…

That right there is a good indication of how swiftly the powers that be can make things difficult for non-dollar holdings… The Treasury Sec. once said, “IT’s our currency, but it’s your problem”… And he was talking about how strong the dollar was… That Treasury Sec. was John Connally, and he was speaking at the time about how strong the dollar was, and how that meant that all other currencies had a problem… 

Weak currencies allow inflation to be imported into their economies…  And with inflation gearing up for a run at all-time highs across the globe, this dollar strength could be very devastating in the long run…  In opposites, the strong dollar can fight back inflation … But for how much longer? I seem to be with a group of right minded people who believe the dollar is on ropes doing the rope-a-dope…  Ali would be proud… of how well the dollar does his signature boxing move… 

So… when will the Cartel step in and say enough is enough! We’re trying to get inflation to run hot, and you dumbass PPTer’s are making that difficult for us to achieve!  It’s like two family members butting heads over who gets the last piece of cake… They can’t figure out how to work together to achieve something for both…  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday, had some interesting data…  And just like I said yesterday would happen the Feb Case/Shiller Home Price Index increased to 11.2% from 10.4% in Jan.  And also I said the stupid Consumer Confidence Index would rise, in March, since most people received their stimmy checks this month… And that’s exactly what happened with the Confidence index rising to 109.7 VS 90.4 last month…  That’s quite a jump in confidence don’t you think?  Well, all I have to say about that is that they didn’t ask me, if I was confident…  They’d get a far different outcome if they did!

Today’s Cupboard has the ADP Employment report for March…  And according to the so-called experts, the employment numbers for March will have skyrocketed higher…  Recall that the ADP Employment Report is a precursor to the Jobs Jamboree, which will print on Friday this week.. Good Friday that is…

To recap… The currencies attempted to mount a rally yesterday, but it was snuffed out by the PPTer’s . Gold & Silver lost major ground on the day, with Gold posting a $25.70 loss and Silver a $66=cent loss on the day..  Many are there some excellent buying opportunities out there folks… I’m just pointing them out… 

For What It’s Worth… Ok longtime readers of this letter, know that I have no love for government economic reports, for I believe they all to be worthless, cooked, massaged, and made to show the citizens that everything is peachy…  Well, longtime reader, Bob, sent me a note that an article on zerohedge.com talked about this…  So… that’s the FWIW article today, about how the Gov’t economic reports are worthless, and it can be found here: “Missing Prices”: Half The Entire US CPI Is Based On Estimates | ZeroHedge

Or, here’s your snippet: “Policymakers and analysts involved in the lively debate on the future path of inflation need to consider whether the government statistical agencies have the tools or information to provide an accurate general inflation assessment. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), half of the data comprised in the consumer price index (CPI) was “imputed” in the past year.

Reported inflation can be whatever you want it to be. Still, it needs to be measuring what policymakers believe it is for it to be appropriate as a monetary policy tool. Price mismeasurement is a policy problem and perhaps soon a credibility problem for policymakers, as “missing prices” make inflation-targeting a meaningless policy tool.

Since the pandemic, the standard practice of personal visits, which historically accounted for three-fourths of price quotes, was temporarily discontinued. Instead, price data was obtained entirely from online sources or through telephone interviews.

According to BLS, the change in data gathering practices has significantly lowered consumer price response rates. For example, the scale of uncollected prices for non-shelter goods and services ran between twenty and thirty-five percent in the past year, more than twice the average. Shelter prices for homeowners, which account for one-fourth of the price index, are regularly “imputed” each month. Taken together, that means price “imputations” and not actual transaction prices have accounted for more than half of the CPI index for the past year.”

Chuck again… I’ve long thought that IF the Cartel really wants inflation to run hot, they could devise their own CPI, or just calculate the data correctly without hedonic adjustments… But then, that would require them to do some work, and math, and well, we can forget I even mentioned this! 

Market Price 3/31/2021: American Style: A$ .7620,  kiwi .7002,  C$ .7938, euro 1.1740, sterling 1.3773, Swiss $1.0606, European Style: rand 14.8020, krone 8.5038, SEK 8.7086,  forint 309.47,  zloty 3.9047,  koruna 22.2618, RUB 75.78, yen 110.64, sing 1.3442, HKD 7.7739, INR 73.15, China 6.5698, peso 20.52, BRL 5.7699,  Dollar Index 93.17,  Oil $60.45,   10-year 1.72%, Silver $24.16, Platinum $1,184.00, Palladium $2,688.00, Copper $4.00, and Gold… $1,687.30

That’s it for today… Man did I run into some major technical difficulties yesterday… But all was worked out and I’m good to go this morning! Another absolutely beautiful day here yesterday…  Well, it’s the end of March today, one of my fave months… April showers bring mayflowers, what do mayflowers bring? Pilgrims! I know, I know, I use that joke just about every year at the beginning of April! But I do have new readers each year!  I heard from my oncologist yesterday, she really wants to see me… I told her, “I’m feeling fine, there’s no rush to get back and see you, you know the old saying don’t fix what ain’t broken?” I’m hoping that next Friday will be a good warm day, so that I can have a driveway happy hour and get caught up with all my neighbors and friends!  I have to say that I am so darn proud of my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace.. She stood right out there on that field, and belted out the National Anthem in one take… That song is not easy to sing folks… I should know as I sing it out loud at each game…  this year, with fans so spread out, there was no one around me except my wife when I would sing the national anthem..   OK… man, I’m really rocking this morning as I head to the Big Finish, with Carlos Santana, and his group’s song: Everybody’s Everything…  You should YouTube that song, it’ll get your motor running!  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and please Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

Gold & Silver Get Whacked Once Again!

March 30, 2021 

* Currencies overnight get sold… 

* What is taught in economics these days? 

Good day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you…  My last spring training game ended the same way the first one did.. in a tie…  I saw 5 ties this spring… That’s crazy! It was a beautiful day at the ball park though… I love that little stadium (Roger Dean Stadium)… It’s perfect for me, and I’m already longing for next spring when I can come back to the stadium to watch my beloved Cardinals! We say goodbye to out last condo guest today, and then three days later I will be heading home… My friends will all ask me what I think of our Cardinals’ chances this year… Like I said yesterday, the Cardinals will pitch well, play excellent defense, and the offense will struggle… But you can win with that formula… And that’s what I’m hoping will happen this year!  Eric Burdon and the Animals greet me this morning with their song: The House of the Rising Sun… 

Well, so much for the dastardly day for stocks yesterday…  To circle back to yesterday morning, I had told you that many intelligent people were saying that Monday would be a blood letting for stocks… And well that didn’t happen, as the Dow ended up 98 points… That’s a far cry from a blood letting, eh?  Well, now all those that have been calling for a stock sell off are saying that it is going to be an April event…  OK… So, just like everyone else these days, if you just keep moving the goalposts, the score doesn’t change…  I’m just saying…  I might remind you to make sure your stop losses have been updated and are live…

The currencies didn’t do much on Monday… The Dollar Index, which on Monday morning was 92.85, ended the day at 92.91… So in essence there was some additional dollar buying but not much, and certainly not enough to write home about!  Gold on the other hand saw another day of getting chopped and diced by the price manipulators…  Gold lost $21.60 on the day, to close at $1,712.70, and Silver lost 40-cents to close the day at $24.73… Those are some very ugly closing figures for these two, and I for one have grown numb to the price manipulators dealings… Yes, we all know why the price manipulators exist, and who’s behind them all the way… But do they have to go after these two metals as if they are the root cause of their problems?

In the overnight markets… Well, in no other words… All hell has broken loose! Gold is down $23 and no longer owns a $1,700 handle… And Silver is down another 38-cents… The Dollar Index has risen to 93.19, and it’s all about dollar strength… What gives?  Basic economics tells us that the more of something reduces its price… And the Good Lord knows just how much more we have in the form of dollars flooding the economy!  I shake my head and wonder what the hell they teach the young ones in economics these days… 

Don’t look now, but the 10-year Treasury’s yield has surged to 1.76%… And it doesn’t appear to be ready to stop rising….  This is beginning to get very serious folks… The Cartel, has announced yield curve control (ycc), but the bond boys are saying, “Bring it on”!   

OK, I had someone take exception to what I said about our infrastructure’s future yesterday… He pointed out that we have the best highways and interstates anywhere, along with bridges and overpasses… And questioned my mentality to even suggest that the Gov’t needs to get out of the infrastructure business…  Well, I accept that challenge because it was done with class and not snotty like most of the disagreements with what I say come through…

Basically, I’m looking at this as a way to lower our deficit spending… Why do we continue to take on things that cost money that we don’t have to spend?  Quite a few years ago now, I wrote a Sunday Pfennig (yes we used to have those)  and titled it: Chuck’s Debt Solutions…   I suggested that we, as a country, stopped spending money we didn’t have, and we could start by ending all wars… The war on poverty, the war on drugs, the war in the Middle East, etc.    I also suggested that we close all military bases in countries where they don’t’ want us there to begin with, bring the boys home and put them on the border to protect our sovereignty…  In addition, I suggested that we allow entrepreneurs to take over the highway system…  All ways to reduce our deficit spending, going forward…

But these days… These days I sit on cornerstones and count the time in quarter tones to ten, my friend, don’t confront me with my failures, I had not forgotten them…   No wait!  These days no one seems to care about deficit spending… Shoot Rudy, we don’t even have a debt ceiling any longer!  It’s all spend, spend, spend till you drop!   One of my fave Rodney Dangerfield movies was Back to School, where in a college bar he told the waitress to bring a pitcher of beer every 20 minutes, until some one pukes, then bring them every 10 minutes…   So, we, as a country will spend, spend, spend, until somebody pukes, and then we’ll really begin to spend!

And when the rubber meets the road on spending, then the defaults will come, and the negative interest rates, and the digital currencies, and that’s when I’ll sit back and say… I warned you all  that this was coming, but you just wouldn’t listen to me!

The Non-Sequitur comic had a great one a couple of years ago, where a mom and her two kids are sitting in a cave around a campfire heating some form of meat on the fire, and the mom says, “You’re father tried to warn us about this, but we wouldn’t listen”…

OK, enough of that… The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index for January, you might recall that December’s HPI was up 10.4%… I can’t imagine that January’s HPI dropped… with mortgage rates still in the 2’s home values are soaring, and people can’t spend enough to get in before the house is gone… thus pushing prices higher and higher..

We’ll also see the stupid Consumer Confidence Index, which is expected to soar in March, because consumers got their stimmy checks!

To recap… The currencies held their ground for the most part on Monday, but Gold & Silver lost major ground on the day …   stocks didn’t collapse as was expected by many analysts yesterday, but now they’ve moved the goalposts and said it will be an April event… So, hold onto your hats, make sure your stop losses are in place, and roll with the tide… Chuck point out why he would prefer the Gov’t to get out of the infrastructure business, and then goes the whole nine yards on ways to reduce our deficit… like anyone cares…

For What it’s Worth…  I’ve been talking about Russia and China’s de-dollarization plans for some time now, and I do believe that it is worth it to circle back and see what’s happening there from time to time, and so, that’s the FWIW article today, which talks about Russia’s new move to dedollarize, and it can be found here: Russia’s National Wealth Fund gets greenlight for gold investments as Moscow pursues de-dollarization policy — RT Business News

Or, here’s your snippet: “Russia’s Finance Ministry has allowed the National Wealth Fund (NWF) to diversify its assets by investing part of the funds into precious metals, including gold.

The share of gold, which is seen as one of the most “protective” assets, has been significantly boosted in Russia’s foreign exchange reserves, the ministry said.

The step is aimed at diversifying the assets allocated by the NWF for ensuring the safety of the funds, as well as for increasing the yields, according to the ministry which will make the draft public in the near future.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov had previously supported the idea of allocating the NWF assets more efficiently, highlighting that precious metals are much more sustainable for investments than financial market assets in the long-term.

In February, the Ministry of Finance reduced the portion of US dollars and euros in the currency structure of its National Wealth Fund from 45% to 35%. Instead, it turned to more Japanese yen and increased the share of assets held in the Chinese yuan by 15%. State investors retained a 10% stake in the British pound.

The NWF, a part of Russia’s federal budget assets, was created to support the national pension system. Its funds can be used to cover budget deficits in times of crisis. As of November 1, the assets of the fund amounted to more than $167 billion, which is about 12% of the country’s GDP.

Chuck Again… Ok… so the question is this: Just how much Gold will they be buying? Could change the direction for Gold these days… I’m just saying… 

Market prices 3/30/21: American Style: A$ .76120,  kiwi .6981,  C$ .7932, euro 1.1733, sterling 1.3753, Swiss $1.0611, European Style: rand 14.9828, krone 8.5764, SEK 8.7342,  forint 309.70,  zloty 3.9709,  koruna 22.269, RUB 75.77, yen 110.36, sing 1.3475, HKD 7.7743, INR 73.64, China 6.5592, peso 20.67, BRL 5.7634,  Dollar Index 93.19,  Oil $60.62,   10-year 1.76%, Silver $24.38, Platinum $1,175.00, Palladium $2,614.00, Copper $4.01, and Gold… $1,669.70

That’s it for today… Well, this will be the first Easter that’s not at my house for 30 years this Sunday… I don’t know how that got changed from the way I always wanted it to be, but it did…  Opening Day for Baseball is Thursday… And in my opinion, it should be a National Holiday!  I told you yesterday that I would bug daughter Dawn about a link… and she came through… National Anthem at Cardinals Spring Training 2021….  Do a YouTube search with that info, and hopefully you’ll see and hear my darling granddaughter sing the national anthem!  So, how have you done with their NCAA basketball bracket? Mine was toast the first weekend when Illinois lost… I should have known better than to pick a Big 10 team! HA! So then I picked a Sweet 16 bracket, and that too has been turned to burnt toast! I guess I’m not very good at picking basketball teams! What a winter down here it has been for yours truly… I have been truly relaxed here, enjoying the sun each day, and reading, reading, reading…  I sure hope it’s warm back home, because it wouldn’t take much to get me back on plane to come here until it is warm back home!  Three Dog Night takes us to the finish line today with their song: Out In The Country…  (before the breathing air is gone, before the sun, is just a bright spot in the nighttime)  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday and will Be Good To Yourself?

Chuck Butler

He’s Baaacccckkkk….

March 29, 2021

* Currencies & metals continue to be held to the chopping block… 

* One shining light in the currencies is the Indian rupee… 

Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well… Chuck was away, and the currencies didn’t rally! See what I’ve been saying? That the world of markets is upside down… What’s good is bad and what’s bad is good… With most of the market activity dominated by the what’s bad is good… I had a great week of vacation with my daughter Dawn, her husband Jerry, and two of my 4 grandkids, Delaney Grace and Everett… Delaney Grace sang the national anthem at Roger Dean Stadium on Tuesday last week and did a bang up job! I’m supposed to be receiving a link to the audio / video of her performance to share with you, but to date, none has come my way… I’ll bug Dawn again to see if she’s gotten it yet, later today. The Stone Temple Pilots greet me this morning with their song: Interstate Love Song…

Well, I don’t know if you’ve heard this in the past week, but a lot of newsletter writers, analysts, etc. are saying that today, Monday, March 29th, is supposed to be a day of reckoning in the stock market… A major stock sell off is supposed to take place today… Now I have no idea if they will be correct in their calls for a sell off, but just in case, I sure hope you have your stop losses in place…

Did you receive your stimmy check payments? And we did with it exactly what the Government wants us to do with it… We spent it! I didn’t want to… But we needed to make some repairs at home, and with the extra money, we spent it!  And in doing so, we doubled the GDP for that amount of money spent!

Ok… so the currencies didn’t rally while I was gone… Neither did Gold or Silver… The Dollar Index when I left you on the 17th, was 91.91, and this morning it is trading at 92.85, so up almost 100 bps…  The price of Oil dropped from $64.19 on the 17th, to a price below $60 at one point last week, only to rally going into the weekend and get back above $60…  But the more than $4 loss in Oil, really sent the Petrol Currencies reeling… The Russian ruble was on a nice run down to 72.81 and then the rug was pulled out from under it and it trades today with a 75 handle… The Canadian dollar/ loonie, had been trading above 80-cents for a month, but succumbed to the pressure of the drop in the price of Oil, and fell below 80-cents. It was the same for the Norwegian krone, which had seen its price perform nicely and trade down to 8.5225, is trading around 8.56 this morning..

The euro, has really been battered about with all this dollar strength… and this morning it is trading with a 1.17 figure…  Crazy days for sure, and I for one am glad I wasn’t here writing every day about this because I would have been yelling at the walls and waking up the kids!  So now, I get to start with a clean slate, and look forward to what I believe is going to be a rough year for the dollar…

Shoot Rudy, even the Chinese renminbi has lost ground in the past 10 days! There is one shining light in the currencies though… The Indian rupee remains steady Eddie with a 72 handle…  I had mentioned the rupee’s gains before I left, and the currency has held onto them just fine… 

Gold and Silver were up one day, down the next for the last 10 days… Gold finished the week on an up note, and closed at $1,734.30, which was higher than the last price on 3/17, which was $1,729.20… Silver wound up losing ground in the last 10 days, going from $25.96 on the 17th to $25.13 to close last Friday… Leaving me one question… What happened to the supposed short squeeze in Silver?  Come one, Inquiring minds need to know!  I read a short report last week, from an analysts who said that while Gold was suffering now, he still believed it would be trading at $3,000 by yearend…  Of course, he could have been long Gold and wanting to get buyers keyed up about buying it and driving he price higher… But that would not be ethical….

In the overnight markets… There’s been more slippage in the metals, and the currencies … As I said above the Dollar Index is trading this morning at 92.85, and last night it was 92.81, so some minor slippage in the currencies. Gold is on one of those “down days” as it begins the week down $7.30 this morning, and Silver has lost 25-cents early today. Up one day down the next… Gold was up on Friday, so it must be down today… UGH! 

Well, the ink wasn’t dry on the latest round of stimmy checks, when word came from the White House that they are considering a $3-5 Trillion dollar Infrastructure bill… That just riles me up to no end folks… For years I’ve said that the Gov’t needed to get out of the infrastructure business, and allow entrepreneurship to have at it… Sure they would all be toll roads, but… They would be sound and sturdy, and well maintained, unlike what we have now…

And there’s something else I want to talk about that I believe gets the Gomer Pyle treatment of Shame, Shame, Shame…  The U.S. Gov’t has hundreds of thousands homeless people in this country, many of which are U.S. military veterans… People who have fought for our country… And do we spend $86 Million on hotel rooms for them? NOOOOOOOO… But we apparently do for the Illegal aliens, this headline taken from Business Insider: Biden is spending $86 million on hotel rooms for migrants as his administration struggles to handle the surge of families and kids trying to come to the US…. 

For Shame, Sgt. Carter, For shame…

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week showed some real chinks in the economy’s armor with Personal Income down 7.1%, Consumer Spending down -1.0%… Durable Goods Orders down -1.1% and Capital Goods down .8%…  But what did these awful looking economic prints do to the dollar? Well, contrary to what you would believe would happen, the dollar rallied… Go figure!

The Data Cupboard today is bare, so no economic reports today… And basically most of the week will be void of real market moving data, until we get to Good Friday, this week, when the Jobs Jamboree for March will print…  We’re traveling home on Friday… So, I won’t see this data until I change planes in Nashville…

To recap… It’s been a tough 10 days for the currencies, especially the Petrol Currencies, as the price of Oil fell out of bed in the last 10 days…  Gold & Silver didn’t fare much better, although Gold did post a small gain in the last 10 days, after a week of up one day, down the next… Silver saw about 1/2- cent taken from its value during that same time… Chuck is not happy about the infrastructure bill nor is he happy about spending $86 Million to put migrants in hotel rooms, instead of helping the homeless people in this country…

For What It’s Worth…  Well, remember when I told you (on a couple of occasions) that I truly believed that once the U.S. Gov’t came out with their form of a digital currency, that they would do two things… 1. Outlaw folding cash, and 2. Outlaw all other digital currencies? Including Bitcoin? Well… it was nice to see that a Big Time Trader, Ray Dalio, agrees with me… And this article talks about what Ray Dalio sees as the future for Bitcoin and other digital currencies, and it can be found here: Dalio sees ‘good probability’ bitcoin gets outlawed (yahoo.com)

Or, here’s your snippet: “Billionaire investor Ray Dalio, the founder of the $150 billion hedge fund Bridgewater Associates — the world’s largest — made a case that there’s a “good probability” bitcoin could be outlawed, similar to when the U.S. government made it illegal to privately own gold.

As Dalio points out in his upcoming book “The Changing World Order,” the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 made it illegal for individuals to own gold “because government leaders didn’t want gold to compete with money and credit as a storehold of wealth.” Something similar could happen with bitcoin, which has surged against a backdrop of high levels of debt, low interest rates, a lot of liquidity and stimulus, and investors seeking alternatives to bonds and currencies. At the time of this writing, bitcoin’s price was near $56,559.98, spiking after Elon Musk tweeted that you can use it to buy Teslas (TSLA).

“Every country treasures its monopoly on controlling the supply and demand. They don’t want other monies to be operating or competing, because things can get out of control. So I think that it would be very likely that you will have it under a certain set of circumstances outlawed the way gold was outlawed,” Dalio told Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer in an episode of “Influencers with Andy Serwer,” a weekly interview series with leaders in business, politics, and entertainment.

Dalio pointed out that India’s government is currently exploring outlawing bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies altogether.

“[We] have to see what that means,” the investor added.

A government ban could likely cause demand to plummet. While emphasizing he’s not an expert, Dalio also cast doubt that bitcoin’s privacy could be protected.”

Chuck again… I want to thank the folks at GATA for sending me this link this past weekend… As soon as I saw it I knew it was what I wanted as my FWIW article on my first day back!

Market Prices 3/29/2021: American Style: A$ .7644, kiwi .6998,  C$ .7945, euro 1.1770, sterling 1.3628, Swiss $1.06.38, European Style: rand 14.9911, krone 8.5675, SEK 8.5796,  forint 308.26,  zloty 3.9506,   koruna 22.1618, RUB 75.80, yen 109.60, sing 1.3463, HKD 7.7726, INR 72.74, China 6.5405, peso 20.73, BRL 5.7542,  Dollar Index 92.85,  Oil $61.64,  10-year 1.65%, Silver $24.88, Platinum $1,184.00, Palladium $2,662.00, Copper $4.05, and Gold… $1,727.00

That’s it for today… Kind of tough to jump right into the markets after having spent the last week away from them… But I gave it my best college try… I did an interview with good friend Dennis Miller while I was on vacation, for his letter: Milleronthemoney.com. If you haven’t signed up for his letter yet, You might want to just so you can see what I had to say about digital currencies… Well, the last spring training game is today, for me that is… It’s going to be a hot one… like 7 inches from the mid day sun… But it’s the last one, and I’ll be there! My Cardinals had better learn to hit the ball more consistently or else this is going to be a very long season… The Cardinals will pitch well, and play excellent defense, but their hitting is sketchy at this point… Good news is there are 162 games this year, to get it right… I want to thank everyone that sent me a happy birthday greeting email…  We celebrated my birthday a couple days late, on the deck with condo friends, and family.. I grilled steak on a stick for everyone, and a good time was had by all… Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their song: Reeling In The Years…  I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, and that you will continue to Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler

 

 

It’s St. Patrick’s Day!

March 17, 2021

* Economic Data is awful, but dollar rallies… 

* Are you wearin’ the Green? 

Top ‘O The Mornin’ to you lads and lasses! It’s St. Patrick’s Day! Are you wearin’ the Green?  I looked in my closet here yesterday to see what I had to wear that was green… I have a shirt that’s a tealy shade of green, and then I have an old EverBank logo shirt that is Kelly green… It’s looks like I’ll be sportin’ the Kelly green shirt today, even though I think I could swim in the shirt, as I’m much smaller now than I was when I used to wear it at shows…  We’ll be going to dinner tonight at our traditional St. Pats’ Day restaurant, and have some corned beef and cabbage…  I have my phone on Sirius XM’s St. Pat’s Day Radio this morning, and they’re playing Dunkin’ Lullabies, by Flogging Molly…  Ok, not your traditional rock and roll this morning, but, when in Rome… 

What on earth happened yesterday? The U.S. Data Cupboard was absolutely awful, and the dollar rallied? Give me a break!  Retail Sales were down 3.0%… Industrial Production was down 2.2%, and Capacity Utilization fell to 73.8%…  Now what in those figures told traders to buy dollars? I’m beside myself with this development this morning! I’m also at a loss for words, which longtime readers will attest is not a common thing for me!

The Dollar Index rose from 91.75 in the morning to 91.88 on the day… Does that make any sense to you, dear reader?  Oh sure, those that believe money grows on trees will tell  Congress that the stimmy checks were needed, but come on… That shouldn’t mean a hill of beans to currency traders…  Gold & Silver also got caught up in the dollar buying, as Gold gave back its early gains of $3.40, and ended the day losing 30-cents.. And Silver never got its feet on the ground to run, and fell 34-cents on the day…

Last night when This Is Us came on, I decided to check the markets and see what was up, and couldn’t believe my eye, when I saw the buying of the dollar goin on …   The Cartel is meeting today, and will not be able to get all the board games out, because it’s just a one day meeting, that will have the Cartel’s decision in an announcement after the meeting this afternoon…  Shoot by then I should be well on my way to an ice cold green beverage! And my annual spring vacation will have begun right after I hit send this morning, and I won’t give two hoots about what Cartel Chairman Powell has to say, because it’s all lies…   Haven’t you heard it’s a battle of words, and most of them are lies? (Pink Floyd)

No baseball for me yesterday, no hockey last night, and that led to a night of going to get the car washed, which took 45 minutes, and I was not a happy camper once I made it to the car wash garage… I just finished another book which puts me at 8 books that I’ve read since arriving down here 2.5 months ago…  In a month from now, I’ll be back home and going to multiple doctor offices… So, I’ll enjoy my remaining time down here where it’s warm, and full of sunshine most days…

In the overnight markets… There was more dollar buying and the Dollar Index is trading at 91.91 this morning.. Not a huge jump, but, it does represent more dollar buying.  The euro dipped below 1.19 this morning, and is going back and forth around the figure. Gold is down $3.10, and Silver is down 4-cents in the early trading…  

I got to thinking this morning, after writing what I have already written and came to the conclusion that traders and investors aren’t that stupid to think it wise to buy dollars when the economy is going to hell in a handbasket…  A study on where people will spend their stimmy check, and it was estimated that $300 Billion will go to the stock market…  All these choices are strange to me… I guess I’m just too old school, to deal with all these moronic decisions…  I’m just saying… 

It’s really beginning to be a drag… waking up each morning and seeing awful economic data, and then watching the dollar climb… The markets are not functioning the way they have always functioned before… Good is bad, and bad is good… Fundamentals don’t count… The Deficit doesn’t count or mean anything any longer, other than numbers… Do you remember the last time we talked about a Debt Ceiling?  I can’t, because it’s just not done any longer…  You know, I’m really beginning to believe that the markets have swallowed this magic money tree stuff, hook, line and sinker…  Why would they get upset that the Gov’t is printing more currency? Why would they get upset that the Fed is promoting runaway inflation? Why, why, why?  See what I deal with every day?

But today is a happy day! I’m Irish, so kiss me!  I never had a green dress shirt, so for years, going to work in a suit and tie, I usually wore plain white shirts, for they go with everything!  On St. Pats’ Day, I would wear a dark blue shirt, and tell people that I was wearing Notre Dame Green…  If you follow Notre Dame sports, you’ll get that one…

I was minding my own business when along came publishing guru, and NY Times best selling author, Bill Bonner, with something for us to think about today… “We need to remember,” says Joe Biden, “that the government isn’t some foreign force in a distant capital. No, it’s all of us. All of us.”

We don’t recall ever making any decision for the government… nor ever having the slightest influence over any decision the government ever made. Nobody ever asked our opinion, and our vote was inconsequential. Apparently, “all of us” does not include us.

Instead, decisions are made by others – lobbyists, legislative aides, bureaucrats, hacks, and cronies. They are the ones, for example, who wrote the latest 600-page American Rescue Plan.

How could you expect them to neglect rescuing themselves?” -Bill Bonner, @rogueeconomics,com

I say that same thing with they send out the surveys for Consumer Confidence… They never ask me! Nor did they ask me if I thought it would wise to keep deficit spending…  Sort of like years ago, at a bank I was called into a meeting of Bank leaders and was told they were thinking of hiring a consultant, and asked me my opinion… I told them that hiring a consultant is like giving him your watch so he can tell you what time it is… Did they listen to me? No… they hired the consultant and a couple of million dollars later, we saw the results…  UGH! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn’t have much in the way of market moving economic data today, just a couple of housing reports… But later in the day we will see what the Cartel has to say about the economy… But remember it’s all lies…   Tomorrow’s Data Cupboard will have the usual fare of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and in addition we’ll also see the color of the latest Leading Index… But if tomorrow is anything like yesterday was… I’ll be glad that I’m on vacation and not following these bassackward markets…

To recap… The economic data yesterday was just plain awful, and the dollar rallied… Chuck was beside himself this morning on that news… Gold gave back its early gain and ended the day, basically flat, but in truth, down 30-cents… Silver gave back all its gains from the day before, and ended up down 34-cents…  The overnight markets there’s been more dollar buying and the Dollar Index is up to 91.91 this morning, and the euro has bounced around the 1.19 figure. The currencies look dreary this morning except the Russian ruble! 

For What It’s Worth…  Ok, whenever I see Doug Casey in the news or in my email box, I think back to a conference that EverBank and the Sovereign Society co-hosted in San Diego, (La Jolla actually), and after a dinner Doug Casey and Chuck Butler sat around a fire outside, and puffed on cigars… He told me something that night I’ll always remember, he said, “Chuck, you’ve always been a purveyor of the truth, don’t ever change that.”   So, anyway, this is the email that Doug Sent me yesterday, it’s about the stimulus money, and it can be found here: www.internationalman.com

Or, here’s your snippet: “It has been one year since the COVID lockdowns and restrictions were first instituted. In that time, everyday life has drastically changed—businesses, social interactions, and human interactions were altered by government decree.

But here’s the single biggest and alarming move made by Washington DC politicians and central bankers alike.

During those 365 days, there has been over $5.9 trillion in stimulus printed and disseminated.

The $5.9 trillion in stimulus represents OVER SEVEN TIMES the lost US GDP.

By any measure, this represents the most dangerous threat to your money.

Worst of all, this trend is only getting started… the Biden Administration and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are committed to keeping the stimulus going.

Here’s the thing, historically, countries that have chosen to print money to finance everything and hand out free stuff have resulted in fiscal disaster—for everyone except those closest to the money spigots.

As the US and other countries head down a perilous path to destroying their citizens’ wealth and purchasing power (and anyone holding their currencies), you need to be prepared, so your money doesn’t become a casualty.”

Chuck again…  Well, I’ve said enough, along with Bill Bonner, James Rickards, and now Doug Casey, about the stimulus Bill… I think the timing of my spring vacation couldn’t have been better, I need to get away, and so… I will!

Market Prices  3/17/21: American Style: A$ .7720,  kiwi .7173,  C$ .8016, euro 1.1900, sterling 1.3896, Swiss $1.0782, European Style: rand 14.9218, krone 8.4940, SEK 8.5225,  forint 308.95,  zloty 3.8764,   koruna 21.9437, RUB 72.81, yen 109.18, sing 1.3471, HKD 7.7661, INR 72.65, China 6.5006, peso 20.69,  BRL 5.6068,  Dollar Index 91.91,  Oil $64.19,   10-year 1.66%, Silver $25.96, Platinum $1,202.00, Palladium $2,548.00, Copper $4.09, and Gold… $1,729.20

That’s it for today… Happy St. Patrick’s Day to you!  It occurred to me this morning that I had forgotten to talk about Shrove Tuesday, a couple of weeks ago, on what’s known as Fat Tuesday… Shroves are Irish pancakes, and the object was to eat as many shroves as you could to fatten up for lent…  I’m going to travel to Ireland before I kick the bucket, and stay at the historical Butler House… Not this year, but hopefully in 2022…  I wanted to go when I turned 60, but life got in the way…  Another night game tomorrow night for me at Roger Dean Stadium, should be a very comfortable night, weather wise… Kathy’s sister is down here now, so she’ll have someone to talk to during the baseball games… A Happy Birthday to my new drinking buddy, Pete Landers tomorrow… And I have a special treat for you today… Through the years, I’ve never heard a song that made me laugh out loud like this one… And so it is that will supply the lyrics, you’ll have to make up the melody…  It’s not Irish, but… it sounds like one… it’s Title is: The Scotsman… 

Well a Scotsman clad in kilt left the bar one evening fair
One could tell by how he walked that he’d drunk more than his share
He fumbled round until he could no longer keep his feet
Then he stumbled off into the grass asleep beside the street

Ring-ding-did-a-little-la-di-oh, ring-di-diddly-eye-oh
He stumbled off into the grass asleep beside the street

About that time two young n’ lovely girls just happened by
One says to the other with a twinkle in her eye
“See yon sleeping Scotsman so strong and handsome built
I wonder if it’s true what they don’t wear beneath the kilt”

Ring-ding-did-a-little-la-di-oh, ring-di-diddly-eye-oh
I wonder if it’s true what they don’t wear beneath the kilt

They crept up on that sleeping Scotsman quiet as could be
Lifted up his kilt about an inch so they could see
And there behold for them to view beneath his Scottish skirt
Was nothing more than God had graced him with upon his birth

Ring-ding-did-a-little-la-di-oh, ring-di-diddly-eye-oh
Was nothing more than God had graced him with upon his birth

They marveled for a moment then one said, “We must be gone
Let’s leave a present for our friend before we move along”
As a gift they left a blue silk ribbon tied into a bow
Around the bonnie star the Scot’s kilt did lift and show

Ring-ding-did-a-little-la-di-oh, ring-di-diddly-eye-oh
Around the bonnie star the Scot’s kilt did lift and show

Now the Scotsman woke to nature’s call and stumbled towards the trees
Behind a bush he lift his kilt and gawks at what he sees
And in a startled voice he says to what’s before his eyes
“Ah, lad I don’t know where you’ve been but I see you won first prize”

Ring-ding-did-a-little-la-di-oh, ring-di-diddly-eye-oh
“Ah, lad I don’t know where you’ve been but I see you won first prize”

I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, that also happens to be St. Patrick’s Day… And please Be Good To Yourself!

Talk to you in 10 days…

Chuck Butler

Up One Day, Down The Next… UGH!

March 16, 2021

* dollar sees some selling in the overnight markets

* Rickards says the U.S. is in a liquidity trap… 

Good day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it was a hot one yesterday at the ballpark, but not too hot… The real problem in the heat is wearing that damn face mask, except when seated and eating or drinking… So, guess what I try to do all game?  For the last year, I’ve worn compression wraps on my lower legs to keep them from swelling… And when you watch a baseball game, on TV,  from Roger Dean Stadium, you see my black compression wraps… To someone not knowing what I’m wearing, they might think that I’ve gone full Cleveland on the world with knee high black socks! I really don’t know what baseball is thinking making people, who are already in pods, and more than 6 feet away from anyone else, sitting in the sun, wear masks…  Makes no sense to me, but then the economic shutdown and the lockdowns don’t make much sense to me either…   The Guess Who greets me this morning with their song: These Eyes…. “These eyes cry every night for you”…

Well… I was right! I was right! There was little to no movement in the currencies yesterday, and in the metals, Silver was the top performer… So, let me take you back to yesterday when I said, “So, I really don’t think we’ll see much movement in the currencies and metals today, as traders want to see the color of these reports before making may definitive moves…”… And I was right when I said this about Silver yesterday, “Silver is up 18-cents, so a good day so far for Silver…”…  So, just to prove what I’ve been crowing about this morning, The Dollar Index was 91.77 yesterday morning, and 91.82 at the end of the day… And Silver was up 16-cents and ended the day up 31-cents, or up 1.20% on the day…

Ok, that was yesterday, and yesterday’s gone… But I did want to point out that Gold gained $3.10 yesterday to close at $1,732.00, and as previously stated, Silver gained 31-cents to close at $26.34…

I was reading an article by James Rickards that really made a lot of sense, especially given the scenario I wrote about a week or so ago, about a dear reader who saw the price his coin dealer was offering for Gold was much higher than the stated price for spot Gold…  I was taught a very long time ago, by my dad, that the “stated price” isn’t really the correct price… Because the correct price is agreed upon by two parties, one buying and the other one selling… And that goes for land, houses, cars, pencils, erasers, etc. etc…. I heard from my former colleague, Chris Gaffney last week, who thanked me for the mention of where to go to get physical Gold & Silver…  So, I’m going to mention this one more time… If you want to buy physical metals, you need to call my metals guru, Tim Smith @1-800-926-4922…

On a sidebar, 926-4922, was created by the Mark Twain Bank Bond Dept… the numbers spell out WAM 4 WAC….  Weighted Average Maturity 4 Weighted Average Coupon…  And old bond swap, that was heard many times across the office on the Bond Dept. …  When Frank Trotter started up the Foreign Exchange Desk, which would become the World Markets Dept. The Bond guys threw him a bone, and handed him this 800# for his new startup… And so… the history of the 926-4922, 800#… Aren’t you glad you asked? No Wait, What? You didn’t ask? Then I’m sorry I went off on this sidebar…  (not really, just being the nice gentleman that I am)

In the overnight markets last night… There was some slippage in the Dollar Index as we start today with it trading at 91.75… The movements in the currencies lately have been really muted, and nothing to call home about…  Gold is up this morning $3.10, but Silver is down 16-cents… Up one day, down the next… Crazy price action of Silver will cause you to claim you saw UFO’s if you allow it…  The price of Oil slipped a bit in the last 24 hours, and trades with a $64 handle this morning. 

Speaking of up one day and down the next… The 10-year Treasury’s yield seems to be tied to a yo-yo these days…  You know, I’ve discussed this before, but it’s worth it to discuss it again… And that is… with every dollar of deficit spending, the U.S. issues Treasuries to finance the deficit spending…  So, basically the Debt Clock tells us the current national debt is more than $28 Trillion… That means that $28 Trillion in Treasuries have been issued and bought…  Recently the primary banks, those responsible for buying whatever is left at a Treasury Auction, told the Fed that they are at their max for owning Treasuries…  And now… with the help of Congress, another $1.9 Trillion will be issued in Treasuries to finance the Stimulus bill…  Who’s going to step up and buy these bonds?  There’s your major problem for you right there!  Need me to explain any other major problems?  

You know, I’ve spent a lot of time talking about the latest deficit spending, currency printing, $1.9 Trillion stimulus bill… Have you ever had a good friend, or relative, come to you and ask you for financial help, and you were in no position to dole out cash to them? What did you do, go into the back room and print some counterfeit dollars to make sure they got the cash they needed? Probably not… Because there are rules, right?  But those rules that apply to you and me, don’t apply to the Fed Reserve, Congress, and the Treasury…  Their constituents came to them with their hands out in need of cash… The Gov’t doesn’t have any cash to give them so they went into the back room and printed up some currency in the form of 1.9 Trillion, which will probably end up being more than 2.5Trillion in the end… Now Millions of people will get their Stimmy Checks, and rush to deposit them to their Robinhood brokerage account to buy stocks…

All the while the taxpayer will have to foot the bill… Robbing Peter to pay Paul… Seems like a losing deal to me, but then I think with logic and reason… I know for a fact that Congress doesn’t!

And I just couldn’t pass this quote up from the Economist magazine… “Yet, though today’s policymakers have a guaranteed place in economic history, they may not come to be seen as heroes. That is because America is running an unpredictable three-pronged economic experiment that features historic levels of fiscal stimulus, a more tolerant attitude at the Federal Reserve towards temporary overshoots in inflation, and huge pent-up savings which no one knows if consumers will hoard or spend. This experiment has no parallel since the second world war. The danger for America and the world is that the economy overheats…

Mr. Biden’s stimulus is a big gamble. If it pays off, America will avoid the miserable low-inflation, low-rate trap in which Japan and Europe look stuck. Other central banks may copy the Fed’s new target. Massive fiscal stimulus may become the normal response to recessions. The risk, however, is that America is left with rising debts, an inflation problem and a central bank facing a test of its credibility.” – the Economist…

So, today should be a lot more active given the three pieces of real economic data that will print this morning… First up is Retail Sales, and I have to say that the Butler Household Index (BHI( indicates to me that Retail Sales for February will be disappointing…  With the only thing I bought last month was my baseball tickets… no other deliveries were made throughout the month, and that usually means that Retail Sales will disappoint…  Then Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, will be hard pressed to match or better January’s numbers, which were +-.9% and 75.6% respectively… if these were the old days, when fundamentals mattered, soft numbers printed today would mean a soft dollar… But we’ve discussed how fundamentals no longer mean a hill of beans, and it’s all about Trader Sentiment now…

To recap… The currencies didn’t move much yesterday, with the Dollar Index only gaining 5 points… Gold found enough buyers to close up and so did Silver… In the overnight markets…   the slippage was in the dollar, and Gold is up and Silver is down this morning…   Chuck talks about how the stated price in Gold is NOT the real price… Chuck also talks about the stimulus Bill, and includes a quote from the Economist…  The Data cupboard should provide more action in the currencies today, so get ready for that!

For What It’s Worth… Well, I mentioned James Rickards above, so when I saw this on the Daily Reckoning, I thought it would be best to use it for our FWIW article today… Mr. Rickards is talking about the stimulus and what it’s going to take to get the economy moving again, and that discussion can be found here: The “Bros” Are Preparing Their Next Attack – The Daily Reckoning

Or, here’s your snippet: “What is not as well-known is that a lot of the money for the Bro’s trading came from the $1,200 COVID relief check the government handed out last spring and the $600 checks handed out at the end of December.

Many Bros were tech-savvy, unemployed and stuck-at-home, so using the government’s “free money” to have fun trading stocks was a great form of entertainment during the lockdowns. Now it’s happening again!

Young retail investors plan to use their new $1,400 government checks from the $1.9 trillion Biden bailout bill to engage in a new round of speculative trading.

The U.S. economy is about 70% dependent on consumption; savings and investment are essential, which can be beneficial in the long-run but do nothing to expand GDP in the short-run.

Biden has said that we need the massive spending package “to grow the economy.” But it will only slow the economy because the added debt causes Americans to save more and spend less in anticipation of higher taxes down the road.

The “stimulus” actually keeps people from looking for jobs because the handouts are often more than they could be making at work. Meanwhile, the higher taxes needed to pay for the handouts also slow the creation of jobs because businesses have less money to invest or hire workers.

The only sustainable way out of the COVID recession is real growth, which comes from getting people back to work and reinvesting corporate profits. It doesn’t come from the printing press or its electronic equivalent.

Whether Americans save the money, pay down debt or invest in stocks (even as speculation), they are not spending. That’s more evidence that the U.S. is in a liquidity trap, and the Biden bailout will not help economic growth.”

Chuck Again…  Another analyst on my bandwagon of dissing the stimmy checks… 

Market Prices 3/16/21: American Style: A$ .7737,  kiwi .7186,  C$ .8020, euro 1.1945, sterling 1.3850, Swiss $1.0810, European Style: rand 14.8139, krone 8.4466, SEK 8.4851,  forint 307.20,  zloty 3.8470,   koruna 21.9242, RUB 73.08, yen 109.14, sing 1.3455, HKD 7.7660, INR 72.58, China 6.5000, peso 20.63, BRL 5.5687,  Dollar Index 91.75,  Oil $64.55,  10-year 1.60%, Silver $26.18, Platinum $1,213.00, Palladium $2,442.00, Copper $4.09, and Gold… $1,735.10

That’s it for today… I can feel my vacation growing nearer and nearer, it’s so near I can almost taste it! HA! I watched my beloved Cardinals win their game yesterday VS  the Nationals… Max Scherzer, a St. Louis and Univ. of Missouri Pitcher that pitches for the Nationals (why he doesn’t pitch for the Cardinals is a long very disappointing story) and he looked great for 4 innings yesterday, But with it being spring training and pitchers building their arm strength he was taken out after 4 innings, and that’s when the Cardinals attacked! Back to the normal regimen today and tomorrow… Tomorrow is St. Patrick’s Day! I’ll maybe change things up a bit tomorrow… maybe… Oh, shoot, I know darn well and good that I will, for I’ve got that Irish blood in me!  Stevie, guitar, Miller takes us to the finish line today with his song: Serenade (one of good friend Kevin’s faves)  I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday and will Be Good To Yourself!

Chuck Butler