March 12, 2019
* Dollar bugs still hold a spell over the currencies & metals
* Fed Atlanta spills the beans on an economic slowdown forecast…
Good day, and a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, something happened to me yesterday that had never happened before… I because ill sitting in the sun at the ballpark… I had to drink a lot of water and sit under the ballpark stands in the shade before I was able to get my wits back about me… I’ve always been told that the sun and chemo aren’t a good mix, but I’ve never had a situation like that in the nearly 12 years of taking chemo before… My head still hurts, so I think I over did it… Lesson learned, you don’t have to tell me twice… Good thing the next spring training game is a night game! I’m treated this morning with a song from The Doobie Brothers, from the Captain and Me album, which was their best, and the song is titled: Dark Eyed Cajun Woman… Love that song!
Well, there’s not much to talk about today… The currencies continued to be under the spell of the dollar bugs, and even the stronger price of Oil can’t seem to help the Petrol Currencies these days… UGH!… The Data in the U.S. continues to be weak, and awful at times (Jobs jamboree is one!) but still the dollar bugs rule the roost… I don’t get it… I doubt I ever will… but it is what it is… right?
The euro gained a small amount yesterday VS the dollar, as did the Aussie dollar (A$) and kiwi, but everything else was held back… except… It was being reported last night that U.K. PM, May had stuck a new BREXIT deal with the EU… It’s now up to the U.K. Parliament on whether it gets passed or not… And the Pound sterling found a bid and rallied on the news… But there’s still a risk out there that the Parliament says, No Soup For You!
Gold followed Friday’s $12 and change gain with a small gain of $2.50 yesterday… But still below the $1,300 level that has been referred to as the Maginot Line… Gold analyst, Egon Von Greyerz (I’m not sure I spelled his name correctly) recently wrote that he believed that the “Maginot Line would soon be breached by Gold”… the price manipulators have dug in at $1,300, and to get Gold past that figure will take a lot of physical Gold buying… Are investors ready for that?
Well, President Trump introduced his new Budget yesterday… And brother is it a doozy! One thing that jumped out at me was the $750 Billion allocated to the Defense sector… That’s a larger budget than the next 14 countries, combined! It’s money we don’t have, so, you know me, dear reader, I don’t like spending money we don’t have, it creates problems down the road…
If you recall the old Sunday Pfennig titled: Chuck’s Debt Solutions, I talked about the military spending, and had the idea that we needed to close all foreign bases, especially in the countries where they don’t want us there to begin with, bring the soldiers home to protect the border, we could save boat loads of money that we don’t have to spend… Just one of the many ideas I presented in the old Sunday Pfennig…
I don’t know how you feel about this, but… it really ticks me off when over time we, as a country, have used our military to bail a country out of a bad regime, or invasion by another country, only to have the people we helped turn around and kick us later… If that’s what happens, and it does, then why help them to begin with? These and many other questions are answered on the Butler Patio, which will be opening up again in the middle of April…
Well, can you tell that there’s just not much to talk about in the currencies and metals today? I begin throwing out opinions like I had a fistful of Benjamins! HA!
The U.S. Data Cupboard isn’t helping me today either, with really only one print today, and that’s the stupid CPI (consumer inflation) for February. This data set has had so many hedonic adjustments to it over the years that it’s no longer recognizable as a reliable piece of data… And that’s why I call it stupid… (good thing my grandkids don’t read the Pfennig, because they always correct me when I say something or someone is stupid!)
In a time when things weren’t so touchy, feely, the Charlie Brown cartoons came to television… The next time one of them is on TV, check out how many times the kids call Charlie Brown, stupid… I’m just saying…
OK… Did you see where Facebook is banning Zerohedge.com? What? Did my old reviewers go to work at Facebook? I say that because I remember being told not to use zerohedge.com in the FWIW section… So, freedom os speech means that as long you say what I agree with it’s OK, but when I don’t agree with something, then no soup for you! What the hell is going on in this country?
Before we head to the Big Finish today… I saw this and knew I had to highlight it… Recall me telling you last month that West Virginia had a bill that would end sales tax on the sale of Gold & Silver (and other precious metals)… Well… Sound money advocates rejoiced today as the West Virginia legislature overwhelmingly passed Senate Bill 502 and sent it to Governor Jim Justice for his signature.
State Senator Craig Blair (R-District 15) introduced SB 502 with the goal of encouraging precious metals purchasers to keep their investment dollars in the state rather making investments elsewhere. The bill impacts purchases of platinum, gold, palladium, or silver bullion valued upon its precious metal content, whether in coin, bar, or ingot form.
Chuck again… Way to go Senator Blair! You da man!
For What It’s Worth… Well, in honor of those long gone reviewers that banned zerohedge.com from my Pfennigs, I have something from zerohedge.com for you today, regarding the Fed Atlanta’s forecast for GDP in 2019… and it can be found here: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-11/gdp-crash-atlanta-fed-sees-q1-gdp-tumbling-just-02
Or, here’s your snippet: “While the market was delighted two weeks ago to see a delayed Q4 GDP print of 2.6%, which came in well above the expected 2.2% consensus number, we warned that “while Q4 was clearly a stronger than expected print, the real question is what happens in Q1, when most banks and nowcasts expect GDP to print below 1%, in some cases concerningly so.”
Moments ago we got another confirmation of this, when following the latest retail sales report which saw a dramatic cut to December retail sales even as January surprised modestly to the upside, the Atlanta Fed slashed its Q1 GDP nowcast, and after rebounding modestly from 0.3% to 0.5% a week ago, it has once again slumped, and is now at the lowest recorded level, and just 0.2% away from economic contraction.”
Chuck again… And the only risks to the economy that Fed Chairman Powell sees, is the slowdowns in Europe and China… Yeah, right, and I’ve got some swamp land I’d like to sell Mr. Powell…
Currencies today 3/12/19 American Style: A$.7075, kiwi .6848, C$ .7461, euro 1.1271, sterling 1.3150, Swiss $.9915, European Style: rand 14.2801, krone 8.6389, SEK 9.3805, forint 279.93, zloty 3.8744, koruna 22.7725, RUB 66.06, yen 111.32, sing 1.3566, HKD 7.8497, INR 69.69, China 6.7208, peso 19.38, BRL 3.8534, Dollar Index 97.06, Oil $57.35, 10-year 2.66%, Silver $15.42, Platinum $831.29, Palladium $1,543.38, and Gold… $1,296.40
That’s it for today… the sun should be rising in a couple of minutes on another day in S. Florida… I’ve seen my beloved Cardinals win 4 games this spring and in 3 of them they scored all their runs (3) in one inning… That’s not a good thing folks… Your lineup should be a relentless attack, throughout the game, I’m just saying… Had a good time last night with friends and their families visiting from St. Louis and Oklahoma… I think I’ll head back to bed after I watch the sunrise on the ocean… My head still hurts a bit… Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their song: My Old School… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday and remember to Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler